Is Ohio and Iowa safe R states now?

[win win]

For 2020 and beyond?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Once Trump destroys manufacturing even further, no way.

[ApatheticAustrian]

OH for sure....too much of a trend this time.

maybe if the state screws the union up so much and loses so much talent during trump's reign, this will loosen but atm i think this is real.

IA could be won with populism, i guess...the state if usually far better educated than believed.

[Young Conservative]

Both are lean R, just Like Arizona and Georgia are now.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Both are lean R, just Like Arizona and Georgia are now.

OH is more than "lean", i figure, AZ/GA crawl in the other direction.

[HannibalLecter]

Iowa yes, Ohio maybe.

[skoods]

Yes, just like NC was lean D like everyone said and PA, MI, and WI was solid D.

[DrScholl]

I don't think that is the case.

[Young Conservative]

Yes, just like NC was lean D like everyone said and PA, MI, and WI was solid D.

I would say Iowa, given the long term trends and success of Republicans as a whole, not just Trump, would lean R. Ohio would tilt R; 2018 will be telling.

[politicallefty]

It's too early to say one way or the other. Either way, I think it's going to be quite funny when they realize that Trump is not going to bring those manufacturing jobs back. I have no sympathy for either state. They are states of the past and they just can't seem to come to terms with that.

As a Democrat though, I would rather invest in Georgia over Ohio. The former will surpass the latter in electoral votes after the 2020 Census. The Atlanta area is ripe for Democrats, especially considering how Cobb and Gwinnett voted.

[Axel Foley]

Populistic Dem( on a "leftist" base, obviously) with working class appeal against a Mitt Romney-type GOPer could win there, I suppose. With two institutionalized candidates, GOP leaning in my opinion.

[Young Conservative]

It's too early to say one way or the other. Either way, I think it's going to be quite funny when they realize that Trump is not going to bring those manufacturing jobs back. I have no sympathy for either state. They are states of the past and they just can't seem to come to terms with that.

As a Democrat though, I would rather invest in Georgia over Ohio. The former will surpass the latter in electoral votes after the 2020 Census. The Atlanta area is ripe for Democrats, especially considering how Cobb and Gwinnett voted.

Cobb and Gwinnett will easily vote for a Rubio type character over any democrat. There's not as much hope in suburbia for Democrats during a normal election, despite this year's anomaly. The only lasting trend democrats need to be worried about: poor and working class whites.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if the dems don't flip the table and forget some of the voters they earned during the last years, they obviously should focus on states with a bigger share of minority voters and which are going to "run out" on uneducated white working-class voters' lock on the vote faster.

[DrScholl]

It's too early to say one way or the other. Either way, I think it's going to be quite funny when they realize that Trump is not going to bring those manufacturing jobs back. I have no sympathy for either state. They are states of the past and they just can't seem to come to terms with that.

As a Democrat though, I would rather invest in Georgia over Ohio. The former will surpass the latter in electoral votes after the 2020 Census. The Atlanta area is ripe for Democrats, especially considering how Cobb and Gwinnett voted.

Cobb and Gwinnett will easily vote for a Rubio type character over any democrat. There's not as much hope in suburbia for Democrats during a normal election, despite this year's anomaly. The only lasting trend democrats need to be worried about: poor and working class whites.

First off, Trump is the incumbent now and Rubio or someone like him isn't going to be the nominee next time. Second, there has been a history of suburbs like this not flipping back to Republicans once they lose them.

[Virginiá]

Personally I believe Iowa is either gone or gettin' gone, but Ohio's result this year doesn't necessarily foreshadow a permanent rightwards shift. It's possible for various candidates to just be 'bad fits,' and until 2020 I don't think we can reasonably make any solid assumptions about any new or modified long-term trends of these states.

So here is my assumption about the implications of this year: A freak election between two widely despised candidates produced an interesting map, but hardly one guaranteed to continue into the future. More likely than not, imo, with a decent candidate in '20 Democrats rebound in at least blue wall states if they put a candidate that continues the previous Democratic levels of support among WCW and Millennials, more or less.

Until then, I'm considering predictions about PA/WI/MI becoming Republican (or significantly more competitive) states the equivalent of any Democrats in 2008 thinking Indiana, Montana and Missouri will be competitive next time.

[Bismarck]

I wouldn't say safe, but likely for Iowa and Ohio is probably a GOP leaning swing state rather than a true tossup state.

[Young Conservative]

I wouldn't say safe, but likely for Iowa and Ohio is probably a GOP leaning swing state rather than a true tossup state.

[JGibson]

Iowa is a likely R state at this point, while Ohio is a GOP-leaning swing state.

[Pericles]

Iowa is a red state now, but Ohio is lean R IMO.

[TJ in Oregon]

It really depends on where the parties' coalitions settle after the coming upheaval in the next couple years. What will the parties' economic platforms be in 4 years? What will the rust belt manufacturing sector look like? What will our trade policies look like? Will the Democrats, after a healthy introspection, decide they want to be the party of working class Americans rather than educated Millennials again? What will President Trump govern like?

The Democrats could win them back in a close election if they change course, but I don't see them leaving the 'Coalition of the Ascendant', so Ohio and Iowa will both be Lean R states in 2020 if the election is close.

[Baki]

I would say Iowa is pretty much gone and Ohio is the right equivalent of PA.

[Nichlemn]

It's possible, but I'll remind you that Obama won WI and MI by double digits in 2008, and look what happened this year. One election just isn't enough to determine a trend.

[Virginiá]

It's possible, but I'll remind you that Obama won WI and MI by double digits in 2008, and look what happened this year. One election just isn't enough to determine a trend.

In addition, 6.9% in Wisconsin 2012 and 9.5% in Michigan 2012.

Atlas calling WI/MI/PA/MN toss-ups entirely because Trump won/lost them by tiny margins is going to be the most annoying & boneheaded idea for the next 4 years.

[Virginiá]

And yet Democrats calling AZ, NC and even GA Tossups is just fine?

I dunno, do they? Because AZ and GA are not toss-ups by any means. Georgia doesn't even truly seem competitive right now, despite sometimes looking it in this year's polls. I have mixed feelings about North Carolina. It seems winnable, just not in a close race.

But if it pleases you I'll be sure to add AZ/GA/NC = tossup to my "stop being silly" response list?

[Meclazine for Israel]

As Trump showed, if you:

(a) Listen to the electorate;
(b) Communicate clearly in simple terms;

voters will head your way.

For the three states that cost Hillary the wlection by less than 110,000 votes, clearly they can go back to the Democrats in 2020.