Are the Republicans having a harder time with the electoral map than before?
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  Are the Republicans having a harder time with the electoral map than before?
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Author Topic: Are the Republicans having a harder time with the electoral map than before?  (Read 535 times)
The Arizonan
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« on: December 01, 2016, 04:27:55 PM »

If you ignore the fact that Donald Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, which is a very bizarre election year, would you say that the GOP is having a harder time with the electoral map? Hillary Clinton managed to keep New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and New Mexico, all of which were states won by George W. Bush during one or both presidential elections, in the Democratic column while losing in terms of electoral votes.
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Lachi
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2016, 04:55:00 PM »

It's just the start of a realignment. I believe that the rust belt will remain a swing area for the next few cycles, before settling down with the republicans, while some southern states will become swing states within the next few cycles as well.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2016, 06:57:18 PM »

It's just the start of a realignment. I believe that the rust belt will remain a swing area for the next few cycles, before settling down with the republicans, while some southern states will become swing states within the next few cycles as well.

I agree. Ohio and Iowa are red states in the 2020s and PA, MI, WI, and MN will go from leans-democrat to tossup. At the same time, the rapidly growing hispanic populations of Nevada and Colorado will cause them to follow New Mexico's lead and eventually become blue states. North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida will also move leftward, but not as dramatically. Sidenote: If democrats don't all agree to condemn Fidel Castro, they'll set themselves back with Cubans more than enough to offset population growth in Puerto Rican and Haitian communities.

New Hampshire should be republican. I think the combination of it being more educated than average, lack of Trump ads on the expensive Boston media market, the sitting republican senator refusing to support Trump (she also lost) and this year being a strong one for the Libertarian party all hurt Trump this year. Gains in Vermont, Rhode Island, and especially Maine tell me that NH and ME should be in play in the future.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2016, 08:36:45 PM »

I don't know if its a realignment election, and Bernie Sanders would have won MI, PA, and WI.  Only time will tell.
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Pericles
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2016, 12:19:15 AM »

Tossup are all states won by 3% or less by either party. Lean are states won by between 3 and 6%.
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/kNKYd.png
The EC has a slight GOP advantage.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2016, 12:53:14 AM »

Quite the opposite Republican can play offense and keep the Sunbelt under control. Clinton won Virginia and Colorado with the help Democratic governors who made it easier for their voters to turnout. Sandoval and Martinez are both Mexican so they did not pass voter ID laws when other Republican Governors in diverse states did. I think Democrats should try a different strategy then waiting for demographics to push them over the edge in the South Atlantic, Southwest, and arguably Mississippi because those states have 100+ year resume of stopping people from voting. Republicans should also not continue to count on voter suppression and low minority participation to win them election because the moment minorities come out they are crippled. Can anybody imagine the Republican surviving in the 2030s with the 20% minority vote.
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2016, 02:08:01 AM »

It's a little annoying how you can't depict on 270towin.com that Maine overall is a swing state, even as both CDs voted for their respective presidential nominees by double-digits.
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