CA Congressional Races: Issa and Barragan in trouble?

[socaldem]

Election results in California come in at a frustratingly slow pace but there are, apparently, a couple million ballots still uncounted and two congressional races with tightening margins:

CA-44
Nanette Barragan (D)- 63,533 50.9%
Isadore Hall (D) - 61,263 49.1%

Barragan's showing here is certainly a major upset and an anti-establishment signal.

This race is a fascinating battle between a more pro-business, establishment African-American politician and a Bernie-style latina outsider. Of course, the ethnic politics of the district were critical and while the district includes the traditional African-American powerbase of Compton, it's nearly 70% latino.

In any case, Hall led in early returns (vote by mail) and also has picked up steam in late-counted absentees since election day. This race has been called already for Barragan but I certainly could see Hall pulling ahead, especially if he continues to perform strongly in mail-in ballots.

I actually live in this district, btw, and supported Hall, though, honestly, I'm kind of on the fence between the two candidates.

CA-49

Darrell Issa (R) 50.1% 105,737
Doug Applegate (D) 49.1% 102,003

A close race that's inching towards Applegate. Applegate won big in the San Diego portion of the district but struggled in the deeply conservative South Orange County portion. Late counted ballots in California tend to favor Democrats so this race will certainly get closer but it may not be quite enough for Applegate to win.

CA-07

Ami Bera (D) 50.6% 103,831
Scott Jones (D) 49.4% 101,248

It looks like Bera will hang on. He should make up a little more ground with the late counted ballots. However, I expect that his congressional career may be nearing an end at some point. The campaign finance scandal with his father (who has been convicted) seems pretty unsavory. Dems may be better off with a different candidate in this district...

[PAK Man]

Hasn't Bera always had a tight race in his district? I definitely recall he was losing on election night in 2014, but after all the ballots were counted he pulled narrowly ahead.

[socaldem]

Hasn't Bera always had a tight race in his district? I definitely recall he was losing on election night in 2014, but after all the ballots were counted he pulled narrowly ahead.

Yeah, it's a tough district and the Sacramento suburbs haven't trended as blue as quickly as those in the coastal areas of the state.

[Green Line]

California is a joke state.  It's unacceptable that they still have millions of ballots to count.  They are reason #1 that we cant have a national popular vote.  Can you imagine the country having to wait like this every 4 years? 

[publicunofficial]

If Issa survives, he is definitely the most vulnerable R heading into 2018.


And I'm not too worried about Bera's scandal. I doubt something as tenuous as that will still matter come 2018.

[BuckeyeNut]

Okay, where are the OP numbers coming in?

A quick Google search of the CA 49th election shows the race is 100% in and that Issa is up (102,953) over Applegate (98,867).

[Cynthia]

Issa? Maybe, but I think he will pull it out. Barragan? Probably not.

[Lachi]

California is a joke state.  It's unacceptable that they still have millions of ballots to count.  They are reason #1 that we cant have a national popular vote.  Can you imagine the country having to wait like this every 4 years? 

Blame their law allowing people to submit their mail-in ballots 3 up to days after.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, we've probably got too many votes left to call any of these.

[Panda Express]

California is a joke state.  It's unacceptable that they still have millions of ballots to count.  They are reason #1 that we cant have a national popular vote.  Can you imagine the country having to wait like this every 4 years? 

Blame their law allowing people to submit their mail-in ballots 3 up to days after.

Wait, really? That's dumb.

[Torie]

RE CA-49, last time I checked the count, a higher percentage of the votes were left to be counted in the San Diego County portion of the district, which Applegate carried. So it should be skin tight.

[Nyvin]

California is a joke state.  It's unacceptable that they still have millions of ballots to count.  They are reason #1 that we cant have a national popular vote.  Can you imagine the country having to wait like this every 4 years?  

Blame their law allowing people to submit their mail-in ballots 3 up to days after.

Yeah...that's...pretty ridiculous.

[Gass3268]

RE CA-49, last time I checked the count, a higher percentage of the votes were left to be counted in the San Diego County portion of the district, which Applegate carried. So it should be skin tight.

I've got a gut feeling this will go into recount territory.

[Bacon King]

California is a joke state.  It's unacceptable that they still have millions of ballots to count.  They are reason #1 that we cant have a national popular vote.  Can you imagine the country having to wait like this every 4 years? 

Blame their law allowing people to submit their mail-in ballots 3 up to days after.

This is wrong. Mail-in ballots have to be post-marked by election day to be counted - they are still counted as long as they arrive within three days later (of course this year, since "three days later" was Veterans Day, the deadline for receiving ballots was extended to today)

[Bacon King]

California is a joke state.  It's unacceptable that they still have millions of ballots to count.  They are reason #1 that we cant have a national popular vote.  Can you imagine the country having to wait like this every 4 years? 

1. Making it easier to vote is far more important than making sure all the votes can be counted quickly. The former is a fundamental democratic right and the latter is a convenience for the modern media cycle.

2. If we had a national popular vote we wouldn't have to wait like this every four years. Everyone knew on election night that Hillary would win the popular vote even without all these votes in. The networks would be able to call the election for Hillary on election night, just like the they were able to call California for Clinton even though all these millions of votes were still out.

3. Presumably if we had a true national popular vote (and not just the NPV Compact) it would be accompanied by a nationwide standardization over things like early voting and vote counting - otherwise it'd be kind of pointless to count all votes together if there wasn't a central authority managing/overseeing the count

[socaldem]

Inching closer in CA-49

    Doug Applegate
(Party Preference: DEM)   106,967   
49.3%

*   Darrell Issa
(Party Preference: REP)   109,838   
50.7%

[Maxwell]

Inching closer in CA-49

    Doug Applegate
(Party Preference: DEM)   106,967   
49.3%

*   Darrell Issa
(Party Preference: REP)   109,838   
50.7%

Could it.. could it be happening?

[socaldem]

Inching closer in CA-49

    Doug Applegate
(Party Preference: DEM)   106,967   
49.3%

*   Darrell Issa
(Party Preference: REP)   109,838   
50.7%

Could it.. could it be happening?

God I hope so. Issa is one of the worst.

Plus Dems have a pretty good record of picking up house seats in Presidential years (except under the 2000-2010 map) which was a terrible pro-incumbent scheme:

'96 CA-10 (Tauscher); CA-22 (Capps); CA-42 (Sanchez)
'00 CA-49 (Davis); CA-36 (Harman); CA-31 (Solis); CA-27 (Schiff); CA-15 (Honda)
'12 CA-26 (Brownley); CA-36 (Ruiz); CA-52 (Peters); CA-07 (Bera); CA-47 (Takano)
'16 CA-49 (?)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-7:

Bera 119,848
Jones 114,646

194,810 ballots remain in sacramento county as a whole. Obviously not all will be from this district. Can't call this yet, but Bera looks okay.

CA-44:

Berragan 66,144
Hall, III 63,564

Los Angeles County as a whole has 956,065 ballots left to count. Obviously anything is possible here.

CA-49

Issa 121,549
Applegate 117,442

Orange County as a whole has 215,781 ballots left, and Issa is winning over 60% of the vote there.
San Diego County as a whole has 616,000 ballots left, and Applegate is winning 53% of the vote there.

Not ready to say anything about the final result of CA-49.

[Miles]

At DDHQ, we've called it for Issa.

[Pandaguineapig]

At DDHQ, we've called it for Issa.

Good, hopefully he takes his future reelection campaigns more seriously

[Maxwell]

What little I know about Cali's 44th I was amazedthat Isadore Hall didn't win in a walk. Don't know much about either candidate.

[The Other Castro]

At DDHQ, we've called it for Issa.

Ehhh I mean probably, but that feels a little premature.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-7:

Bera 129,064
Jones 123,056

Ballots left in Sacramento County (as a whole): 136,644

CA-44:

Barragan 66,144
Hall, III 63,564

Ballots left in Los Angeles County: 956,065

CA-49:

Issa 128,515
Applegate 123,562

Ballots left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 122,028
Ballots left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 466,300

[Vega]

I'm fairly sure all three incumbents will lose. Bera is the only one who has a solid chance of holding on.