2017 British Columbia election

[adma]

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll.

Well, I don't deny that he has a lot of the ground-level knowledge--but it's *how* one uses it and expresses it that matters.  That is, if you're to fall back on trollspeak and insufferable remind-us-every-time-how-great-he-is Keith Baldrey fawning, you're undermining your own authority.  And my distancing myself from the Lotuslander/DL battle isn't so much "both sides are equally bad" as "both reps of either side are equally bad".  In fact, I'd argue that the better approach to these kinds of political-overviews is less condemnatory than that of an affectionately, strategically wry jaded bystander with a clear window into the lay of the land--not unlike this forum's mod, Hash.  
Unfortunately, Lotuslander's no Hash.

[Lotuslander]

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll. Period.

The definition of "troll" is someone who posts irrelevant & inflammatory bafflegab in order to disrupt a thread. By that definition, you are a troll.

Sigh. Every once in a while it appears a "full moon" exists in this thread. At the strike of midnight... the trolls morph into werewolves,  get on their all-fours, and howl at the moon. Strange breed.

[Lotuslander]

Here are the details from that new Mainstreet poll

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-lead-post-budget-undecided-still-high/

One thing i find particularly interesting are the numbers on leader approval.

But check out Christy Clark...what absolutely damning numbers! Good thing Kathleen Wynne is around to save her from being the most hated premier in Canada!

Clark -

Favourable 21%
Unfavourable 57%
Not sure 20%
Don't know him well enough 2%

And right there exists a major "red flag" in terms of Mainstreet Research (IVR/robo polls) in BC esp. after the 2013 BC election polling fiasco. Both IVR/robo and opt-in online panel polls were proven to be terribly inaccurate cheap junk unlike expensive/accurate CATI - the polling gold standard. Seems like some folk are unable to proverbially separate the wheat from the chaff. More specifically, the same folk unable to tell the difference between a McDonald's hamburger patty and a NY steak.

So let's dig further into these approval numbers by Mainstreet Research. Let's backtrack to the 2013 BC election when the BC NDP approached/hit a winning spread of 20%. Even back then CC's approval (favourability) numbers with Angus Reid (opt-in online panel pollster) never hit as low as 21%.

In fact, in their final poll on the Monday prior to Tuesday, e-day, May, 2013, Angus Reid had a 9% BC NDP winning margin whereas the actual results was a 13% reversal. Even then, AR had CC with 34% approval/58% disapproval figures. Just last December 16, AR released CA premier's approval ratings and, surprise surprise, CC had the ~same 35% approval/59% disapproval ratings.

What's more interesting is the BC Lib 's internal polling during the 4-week 2013 writ period - very expensive/accurate CATI polling and the only entity that nailed the final 2013 BC election result. In terms of their BC Lib's internals approval ratings, CC had equal approval/disapproval numbers on the 2nd day of the 2013 campaign. Thereafter, CC's approval figures surpassed her disapproval numbers and trended upward over the next 4 weeks. OTOH, BC Lib 2013 internals had BC NDP leader Adrian Dix with disapproval numbers higher than his approval ratings with a negative trajectory throughout the 2013 campaign.

While the BC Lib's CATI internals nailed the 2013 BC election, the cheap opt-in online panel/IVR polls were wayyyyy off. Probably one of, if not thee, biggest public polling failures in Canadian history. Becoming clear that Mainstreet Research will be joining that same crowd.

Again, CATI pollster Innovative Research was in the field within a few weeks of IVR pollster Mainstreet Research last December. COMPLETELY different polling results. BTW, a few weeks back, Greg Lyle, prez of Innovative Research, directly informed me that they will be in the field relatively soon. Again, no doubt that they they again will have completely different results from Mainstreet Research.

To sum it up - some folk here apparently prefer McDonald's hamburger patties over NY steak in terms of quality "opinion" polling. No skin off my back. It is what it is.

[136or142]

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll. Period.

The definition of "troll" is someone who posts irrelevant & inflammatory bafflegab in order to disrupt a thread. By that definition, you are a troll.

Sigh. Every once in a while it appears a "full moon" exists in this thread. At the strike of midnight... the trolls morph into werewolves,  get on their all-fours, and howl at the moon. Strange breed.

If you're not a troll then pay me the $1,000 you owe me.

[136or142]

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll.

Well, I don't deny that he has a lot of the ground-level knowledge--but it's *how* one uses it and expresses it that matters.  That is, if you're to fall back on trollspeak and insufferable remind-us-every-time-how-great-he-is Keith Baldrey fawning, you're undermining your own authority.  And my distancing myself from the Lotuslander/DL battle isn't so much "both sides are equally bad" as "both reps of either side are equally bad".  In fact, I'd argue that the better approach to these kinds of political-overviews is less condemnatory than that of an affectionately, strategically wry jaded bystander with a clear window into the lay of the land--not unlike this forum's mod, Hash.  
Unfortunately, Lotuslander's no Hash.

Forgive me if it wasn't you, but I believe it was you who said I was overly swept up into the hyper partisanship of British Columbia when i wrote here something like "virtually nobody in British Columbia likes Christy Clark and outside of provincial Liberal hyper partisans, virtually everybody regards her as a narcissist who is interested in governing only as long as she gets her picture taken."

It's just one poll, but I think it backs up what I wrote:
Christy Clark
Favorable 21%
Unfavorable 57%

[adma]

Though favourability/unfavourability polls do not necessarily equate with electoral choice in the end.  (And in a way, Rachel Notley in Alberta faces an inverse situation--high favourables vs low reelectability)

[Lotuslander]

For all you IVR/robo poll fans... you will love today's new BC opinion poll results today by Forum Research:

BC NDP: 39.7%
BC Lib: 28.5%
BC Con: 15%
BC Green: 13.6%

(extrapolated)

[136or142]

Though favourability/unfavourability polls do not necessarily equate with electoral choice in the end.  (And in a way, Rachel Notley in Alberta faces an inverse situation--high favourables vs low reelectability)

But, again, I recall that's what I wrote at the time.  I wrote something like "Yet, by no means is the NDP certain to win the next election. If the B.C NDP can't win under this circumstance, they need to seriously rethink their existence as a political party."  I believe I said much the same thing as Dominic Cardy said in New Brunswick, that they need to remove that anybody who wants to join the NDP at the provincial level must also join at the Federal level, and, where applicable, even at the municipal level.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

[MAINEiac4434]

For all you IVR/robo poll fans... you will love today's new BC opinion poll results today by Forum Research:

BC NDP: 39.7%
BC Lib: 28.5%
BC Con: 15%
BC Green: 13.6%

(extrapolated)

According to too close to call, this translates to:

NDP: 58
LIB: 27
GRN: 2
CON: 0

[Njall]

Though favourability/unfavourability polls do not necessarily equate with electoral choice in the end.  (And in a way, Rachel Notley in Alberta faces an inverse situation--high favourables vs low reelectability)

Notley's had approval ratings in the 30-35% range for about a year now.

[adma]

Though favourability/unfavourability polls do not necessarily equate with electoral choice in the end.  (And in a way, Rachel Notley in Alberta faces an inverse situation--high favourables vs low reelectability)

Notley's had approval ratings in the 30-35% range for about a year now.

That's still not bad, considering--esp. compared to Christy's 21-to-57.

The thing about the BCLibs is: however unpopular the leadership, barring some unforeseen third-party upheaval (and no, the Greens aren't *quite* at that level yet, not even under Weaver) the *only* viable governing alternative is the "Socialist Hordes".  By comparison, Team Christy is commonly viewed as the safe, sane, solid middle-of-the-road choice, and a lot of voters are willing to forgive for that reason.  OTOH where they *can* be tripped up is for being "politics as usual", i.e. Christy as a Hillary figure vs either Donald or Bernie.  And that's why BC provincial elections have seldom been classic pre-Notley Alberta PC-scale slam dunks.

By comparison, the even more unpopular Wynne in Ontario has the right-of-centre Ontario PCs as well as the NDP to ward off.

[adma]

Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.

[Lotuslander]

Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.

Correction. The NDP has a certain sect within that treats the NDP as a "church". The so-called Jehovah's Witness/Scientology sect within the NDP that views any criticism as heresy & blasphemy.

Certainly Adma & DL - all from Toronto, Ontario fit that mold as well as Adam T. In centrist political circles these types are referred to as the "loony left". It is what it is.

[136or142]

Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.

Correction. The NDP has a certain sect within that treats the NDP as a "church". The so-called Jehovah's Witness/Scientology sect within the NDP that views any criticism as heresy & blasphemy.

Certainly Adma & DL - all from Toronto, Ontario fit that mold as well as Adam T. In centrist political circles these types are referred to as the "loony left". It is what it is.

I don't think expecting you to pay the $1,000 for the bet you lost to me is loony at all.

[adma]

Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.

Correction. The NDP has a certain sect within that treats the NDP as a "church". The so-called Jehovah's Witness/Scientology sect within the NDP that views any criticism as heresy & blasphemy.

Certainly Adma & DL - all from Toronto, Ontario fit that mold as well as Adam T. In centrist political circles these types are referred to as the "loony left". It is what it is.

Actually, Lotuslander, I was tipped on your identity and it seems like, for all your self-proclaimed "expertise", you leave a pretty shallow Google footprint other than a Twitter account and, through said Twitter account, this.

https://bcelection2017-87ridings.blog/

And judging from the "About" page, there's something about your tone that still seems like it hasn't matured much beyond your Grade 5/7 epiphanies.  I mean, the Superbowl and Arnie as cultural references?

Indeed, you may have become infatuated with infrastructure and "economic growth stuff"; but there doesn't seem much...culture.  Or history.  Or dimension beyond suspended-animation juvenilia.  And maybe this tweet says it best about how culturally stunted and pathetic you are.

https://twitter.com/Lotuslander1000/status/628048052599701504

As I've suggested before: to me, elections and election stats can be a sensual, multidimensional thing--even in binary BC.  In fact, I've just been on a bender with the 2015 federal stats for BC, correlating with polling maps and the like.  And really...once you're deep into that, raw partisanship, "loony left" or not, doesn't matter.  It all gains added dimension; you sense nuances even within the results for "loser" parties.  And it helps balance a person.

It has dimension, in the same way that a long, satisfying road trip has dimension, that--as I've said before--choosing the Trans-Canada over the Coquihalla has dimension.  

Though it now seems from your infrastructural obsession that indeed, you probably *would* prefer the Coquihalla because it represents "progress".

But anyway...to me, elections aren't just like the Superbowl.  They *supercede and transcend* the Superbowl.

In the end, Lotuslander, your so-called grand gestures and your self-proclaimed "centrist circle" knocks on the "loony left" remind me of Trump.  You display your so-called unequaled expertise and authority the way that Trump displays his so-called impeccable taste in decoration and women.
But what we, the "loony left" "losers", see behind Trump's boasts is parvenu vulgarity to the nth degree and a plastic doll from Slovenia.  But oh,  I guess we're "just jellus".

You may see yourself as "centrist"; but what I see is a philistine.  Political-analysis "authority" in a tasteless-blowhard package.

[136or142]

Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.

Correction. The NDP has a certain sect within that treats the NDP as a "church". The so-called Jehovah's Witness/Scientology sect within the NDP that views any criticism as heresy & blasphemy.

Certainly Adma & DL - all from Toronto, Ontario fit that mold as well as Adam T. In centrist political circles these types are referred to as the "loony left". It is what it is.

Actually, Lotuslander, I was tipped on your identity and it seems like, for all your self-proclaimed "expertise", you leave a pretty shallow Google footprint other than a Twitter account and, through said Twitter account, this.

https://bcelection2017-87ridings.blog/

And judging from the "About" page, there's something about your tone that still seems like it hasn't matured much beyond your Grade 5/7 epiphanies.  I mean, the Superbowl and Arnie as cultural references?

Indeed, you may have become infatuated with infrastructure and "economic growth stuff"; but there doesn't seem much...culture.  Or history.  Or dimension beyond suspended-animation juvenilia.  And maybe this tweet says it best about how culturally stunted and pathetic you are.

https://twitter.com/Lotuslander1000/status/628048052599701504

As I've suggested before: to me, elections and election stats can be a sensual, multidimensional thing--even in binary BC.  In fact, I've just been on a bender with the 2015 federal stats for BC, correlating with polling maps and the like.  And really...once you're deep into that, raw partisanship, "loony left" or not, doesn't matter.  It all gains added dimension; you sense nuances even within the results for "loser" parties.  And it helps balance a person.

It has dimension, in the same way that a long, satisfying road trip has dimension, that--as I've said before--choosing the Trans-Canada over the Coquihalla has dimension.  

Though it now seems from your infrastructural obsession that indeed, you probably *would* prefer the Coquihalla because it represents "progress".

But anyway...to me, elections aren't just like the Superbowl.  They *supercede and transcend* the Superbowl.

In the end, Lotuslander, your so-called grand gestures and your self-proclaimed "centrist circle" knocks on the "loony left" remind me of Trump.  You display your so-called unequaled expertise and authority the way that Trump displays his so-called impeccable taste in decoration and women.
But what we, the "loony left" "losers", see behind Trump's boasts is parvenu vulgarity to the nth degree and a plastic doll from Slovenia.  But oh,  I guess we're "just jellus".

You may see yourself as "centrist"; but what I see is a philistine.  Political-analysis "authority" in a tasteless-blowhard package.

Are you sure that's him?  I had a discussion with the guy behind that website a few days ago on Twitter and I didn't get any bad feelings with that discussion.

[Lotuslander]

Actually, Lotuslander, I was tipped on your identity and it seems like, for all your self-proclaimed "expertise", you leave a pretty shallow Google footprint other than a Twitter account and, through said Twitter account, this.

https://bcelection2017-87ridings.blog/

And judging from the "About" page, there's something about your tone that still seems like it hasn't matured much beyond your Grade 5/7 epiphanies.  I mean, the Superbowl and Arnie as cultural references?

Haha. Adma - you've now proven yourself to be a complete and utter idiot. No doubt. And a psychopath to boot. An NDP buffoon on some conspiracy binge. Typical. In that regard, my favourite German (yes) saying: "Du hast ja aber eine Schraube locker".

Alright. Let's have some more fun since you "were tipped" by Adam T.

The poster "adma" has been posting for well over a decade on numerous political sites all over Canada - from Ontario's GTA. Have read "adma's" postings for years.... and yep... loony-left stuff. Quite the NDP "church" groupie. Despises the centrist federal Liberals. Forget about the right-wing fed Cons. An "NDP ueber alles" type.

Like former BC NDP strategist/campaign manager Brad Zubyk previously stated.... "the BC NDP believes it's akin to a church". "Half the folk are bat sh**t crazy".

Now adma. Point to one intelligent/analytical post that ya have composed in this thread. Ya can't! It's because it's all "NDP church" rhetoric all the time attempting to undermine my posts. Weird. Sheer bafflegab. From that perspective, your loony-left "I know all about BC politics" types [from Ontario]... are the same that are literally clueless about BC politics. Am familiar with that type.

So, will you kindly agree to put me on your "ignore list" as well? Hell... I would have blocked you loony-left NDP "church" types, if that option was available herein, long ago.

PS. Before ya do that... my next post is about the other NDP church groupie. Sorry DL... adma made me do it - well worth a read.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Here are the details from that new Mainstreet poll

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-lead-post-budget-undecided-still-high/

One thing i find particularly interesting are the numbers on leader approval. Needless to say John Horgan, not having been through an election campaign yet, is still relatively unknown:

Horgan -

Favourable 26%
Unfavourable 24%
Not sure 37%
Don't know him well enough 13%

But check out Christy Clark...what absolutely damning numbers! Good thing Kathleen Wynne is around to save her from being the most hated premier in Canada!

Clark -

Favourable 21%
Unfavourable 57%
Not sure 20%
Don't know him well enough 2%

Everyone in BC basically hates her.

[Lotuslander]

But the 2015 federal Environics BC riding polls were akin to "dog meat" at a cheap Vietnamese restaurant v. McDonalds in comparison. Really pathetic junk. I actually know how Environics played that "game" - numerous IVR riding polls conducted until one favours the NDP (the 1/20 fluke outlier). Hell, the fed Greens played the same "game" with Oracle Research during  the federal riding of Victoria in 2015. Obvious that the fed NDP complained to Elections Canada as a result, which made news headlines after EC investigation.

Now the 2015 federal Environics riding polls ere the worst political junk that I have ever seen in my entire life in BC. /Environics had these federal BC ridings all listed as "NDP" wins - when either historically these ridings have never elected an NDP MP, were not demographically NDP, the underlying provincial ridings were not NDP - even another IVR/robo pollster concluded the riding was not NDP (in the field at the same time):

1. Cariboo-Prince George;
2 North Okanagan-Shuswap - hell ... even cheap polling junk IVR pollster Mainstreet Research (new BC poll), in  field at same time, had completely different result and more realistic;
3. Vancouver-Granville - ditto above;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency#British_Columbia

If someone made a complaint to Elections Canada regarding the foregoing, Environics would be required to produce ALL documents thereto - no client confidentiality.

post modified. doxing is inappropriate. consider this a formal warning. quit provoking people and derailing threads with this behaviour.

[Lotuslander]

Everyone in BC basically hates her.

Honestly... I have never met anyone who hates CC. And I am very serious. As a matter of fact, I know folk that dislike Gordon Campbell very much. These same folk "like" CC. Perhaps I live in a different world than you.

I certainly know that all hardcore NDP types "hate" both Campbell & CC. Just a fringe minority IMHO.

[Lotuslander]

Now back to regularly scheduled programming....

A fascinating BC NDP nomination race is underway in the riding of Fraser Nicola, which the BC NDP narrowly lost in 2013 after holding same since 1991 (aside from the 2001 debacle) with then incumbent NDP MLA Harry Lali.

Harry Lali is again running for the BC NDP nomination in the riding of Fraser-Nicola. During the 2013 BC election, Lali supported the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning against the wishes of then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix. Today, Lali is against the KM twinning in order to keep "solidarity" with the BC NDP.

Interestingly enough, Lali's opponent is Lower Nicola FN chief Aaron Sam (good guy) in Merritt. Sam previously told a local newspaper that he supports the KM twinning as "it's important for the economy".  In fact, his FN finalized a financial benefits agreement with KM just last week.

Odd. The only BC riding that BC NDP leader Horgan has  voiced a preference - Sam - and apparently attempted to talk Lali from running.

Vancouver Sun's political columnist Vaughn Palmer has another interesting take tonight:

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-lali-wont-step-aside-for-leaders-choice-in-fraser-nicola

[adma]

So, will you kindly agree to put me on your "ignore list" as well? Hell... I would have blocked you loony-left NDP "church" types, if that option was available herein, long ago.

I don't put anyone on ignore lists.  Because that's placing myself on your juvenile level.

Oh, and it wasn't Adam T. who tipped me.

[Hash]

Since apparently certain people don't seem to understand this, doxing is very much inappropriate and will not be tolerated under any circumstances. In addition, once again certain people here are behaving worse than grade 1 students and this obviously degrades the quality of discussion on this thread, which isn't high to begin with.

[DL]

What is "doxing"?