2017 British Columbia election

[Lotuslander]

BC Building Trades and the Steelworkers are dominated by construction jobs, they are being lured in by Kinder Morgan and Site C. with the NDP taking an opposition to those proposals that is going to cause friction.

I will let the words of a defeated BC NDP MLA, in the aftermath of the 2013 BC election, speak to that:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Off the bat, the private sector creates jobs. Not government. Period. The government just provides the fiscal, taxation, regulatory, etc. regime for the private sector to make the capital investments to provide that employment.

Look, I follow every BC political party to a "T" in all facets on a daily basis. Frankly, I have no idea what you are referring to in terms of "43,000" jobs to be created by the BC NDP in terms of infrastructure. BTW, I am a BC infrastructure junkie  as well... highways, bridges, rapid transit, hospitals, schools, universities, water treatment, wastewater management, etc., etc.

Ergo, I am all ears to the "43,000" new government funded infrastructure jobs that ya describe.

[Lotuslander]

Regarding the recent Kinder Morgan decision.

A November, 2016 Abacus Data opinion poll - Interestingly enough, in a question therein involving renewable energy as well as a new oil pipeline to access new markets via the coast... these were BC's numbers:

Support: 42%
Accept: 36%
Oppose: 22%



22% of BCers are in opposition - some suspect the hemp commerce, granola bar eatin', singing Kumbaya crowd.

PS. Over the years, Insights West has also had a ~21% "strongly opposed" to the KM pipeline. Abacus Data basically corroborates same. Again, a vocal enviro crowd has taken over the BC NDP.

PS. Long time BC political analyst for Global BCTV recently tweeted the following in terms of the foregoing Abacus opinion poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And to those that oppose KM, his take on how they will place their vote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And that's with the BC NDP now opposing KM. Just gotta love BC politics. Always entertaining. No doubt.

[MaxQue]

Well, such results are normal with such a loaded question.

[adma]

And we also have "adma" who is nothing more than another NDP troll.. this time from Ontario... 3 time zones away. Again... providing nothing analytically useful to this thread. Don't understand why both you and "Adam T" are not both banned for violating/breaking clear forum policy/rules.

BTW, "Dumb and Dumber" has always been my fave flick.

Actually, I'm not an NDP troll except insofar as *anybody* who, to you, is charitable t/w the NDP and willing to give them the benefit of the doubt (at least as a serious component of our viable electoral-choice network) is, in your eyes, a troll.  In fact, I think of myself as more of an all-around psephological sensualist--and as such, I have every right to be interested and even willing to perform constructive advice and observation on elections not in my own territory.  And even to read meaningful between-the-lines data in seemingly boring "slam-dunk" constituencies a la the recent federal Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner byelection.  Stuff that *is* analytically useful, even if I'm several time zones away.

For you see, at its best, "analytically useful" transcends partisan bias.  Just as in Medicine Hat; whatever our individual partisanship,  it's boring to deem the result "boring".  Polling maps and polling data are fun, even when the race *appears* on the surface to be ho-hum.

By comparison, from what I can tell--you're not interested in that kind of stuff.  You're offering *political* arguments; you're not offering *electoral* arguments; you're not allowing for any nuances or wiggle room, and especially if they go against your theorems.

So, if you're attacking me for being an Ontarian, may I counter-attack *you* for being *disinterested* in Ontario.  And I speak from a realm where with exceptions (most notably the Rae interlude), the NDP's tended to be even *more* terminally-third-party marginal.  Yet...elections, poll-by-poll numbers and all, are interesting here, too.  So, why aren't you interested?  Why are you so constipated?  Why'd you rather stick to BC, and *just* to BC--and even doing BC an injustice by simplifying the tableau to fit your case?

I mean, under the circumstance, you might as well be suggesting the author of this piece has no right to speak on behalf of BC's modern heritage (Erickson homes et al) because he's from Ontario.
http://www.treehugger.com/sustainable-product-design/another-one-bites-the-dust-ericksons-graham-house.html

[136or142]

And we also have "adma" who is nothing more than another NDP troll.. this time from Ontario... 3 time zones away. Again... providing nothing analytically useful to this thread. Don't understand why both you and "Adam T" are not both banned for violating/breaking clear forum policy/rules.

BTW, "Dumb and Dumber" has always been my fave flick.

Actually, I'm not an NDP troll except insofar as *anybody* who, to you, is charitable t/w the NDP and willing to give them the benefit of the doubt (at least as a serious component of our viable electoral-choice network) is, in your eyes, a troll.  In fact, I think of myself as more of an all-around psephological sensualist--and as such, I have every right to be interested and even willing to perform constructive advice and observation on elections not in my own territory.  And even to read meaningful between-the-lines data in seemingly boring "slam-dunk" constituencies a la the recent federal Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner byelection.  Stuff that *is* analytically useful, even if I'm several time zones away.

For you see, at its best, "analytically useful" transcends partisan bias.  Just as in Medicine Hat; whatever our individual partisanship,  it's boring to deem the result "boring".  Polling maps and polling data are fun, even when the race *appears* on the surface to be ho-hum.

By comparison, from what I can tell--you're not interested in that kind of stuff.  You're offering *political* arguments; you're not offering *electoral* arguments; you're not allowing for any nuances or wiggle room, and especially if they go against your theorems.

So, if you're attacking me for being an Ontarian, may I counter-attack *you* for being *disinterested* in Ontario.  And I speak from a realm where with exceptions (most notably the Rae interlude), the NDP's tended to be even *more* terminally-third-party marginal.  Yet...elections, poll-by-poll numbers and all, are interesting here, too.  So, why aren't you interested?  Why are you so constipated?  Why'd you rather stick to BC, and *just* to BC--and even doing BC an injustice by simplifying the tableau to fit your case?

I mean, under the circumstance, you might as well be suggesting the author of this piece has no right to speak on behalf of BC's modern heritage (Erickson homes et al) because he's from Ontario.
http://www.treehugger.com/sustainable-product-design/another-one-bites-the-dust-ericksons-graham-house.html

My advice: Don't feed the trolls. 

I usually believe in only speaking for myself, but I suspect that most people here have Lotuslander on Ignore.

[adma]

My advice: Don't feed the trolls. 

I usually believe in only speaking for myself, but I suspect that most people here have Lotuslander on Ignore.

I wouldn't say that; more like, most people don't give enough of a whozis to put him (or *anyone*, for that matter) on Ignore.  I mean, *I* don't have anyone on Ignore--that tactic's for wimps.  Yet at the same time, "wimpy" is just as well descriptive of Lotuslander's labelling of myself as an NDP troll.

And again, for all his bombastic claims of his "knowing" BC politics, I still have this inkling Lotuslander's gotten into hot water over "dirty tricks", and is basically using this forum as the last anonymous refuge of a scoundrel, getting back at those who "wronged" him or "set him up"...

[136or142]

My advice: Don't feed the trolls. 

I usually believe in only speaking for myself, but I suspect that most people here have Lotuslander on Ignore.

I wouldn't say that; more like, most people don't give enough of a whozis to put him (or *anyone*, for that matter) on Ignore.  I mean, *I* don't have anyone on Ignore--that tactic's for wimps.  Yet at the same time, "wimpy" is just as well descriptive of Lotuslander's labelling of myself as an NDP troll.

And again, for all his bombastic claims of his "knowing" BC politics, I still have this inkling Lotuslander's gotten into hot water over "dirty tricks", and is basically using this forum as the last anonymous refuge of a scoundrel, getting back at those who "wronged" him or "set him up"...

I don't agree that removing the comments from trolls is wimpy.  It just saves me a bit of time.

[adma]

I don't agree that removing the comments from trolls is wimpy.  It just saves me a bit of time.

I'd rather the mods do it (if required) than to do it myself.  Or else, do so passively by avoiding forums/contexts where high-volume macho-preening trollism rules (i.e. newspaper comment threads, Twitter, etc--even some of the Banzaii-shouting US-election threads on this site).  And always remember that the problem isn't in the bias, it's in the devil-may-care mediocrity of expression

And that said, keeping to the topic of this thread, I wouldn't go *too* far in countering some of Lotuslander's basic facts; that given BCs electoral history and the overall nature of its electorate, it's not wise to *overstate* the degree of toxic-option hatred that Christy Clark engenders, and especially in an era when things have been looking iffy-underperformance for the NDP nationwide (most recently the Yukon election, which many were predicting "confidently" that the NDP would win).  The thing is, I wouldn't subscribe to Lotuslander's "NDP = my alimony-grubbing b*tch of an ex-wife" hyperbolic tone, either.

[Lotuslander]

I see the ON NDP trolling flakes at it again... posting extraneous or off-topic messages.... akin to a rogue Jehovah's Witness sect. Too funny.

Not one relevant posting on the BC election.  Must be in their genes.

Alrighty then. Back to the BC election.

Yesterday, Forum Research (IVR pollster) conducted its first opinion poll in the aftermath of the Kinder Morgan decision with the BC results as follows (with change from previous months in brackets):

Lib: 36% (-7%)
Con: 35% (+2%)
Green: 14% (+4%)
NDP: 13% (+-0%)

Looks like the fed Greens received a small bounce out of the KM decision in BC by taking the anti-pipeline vote. Logically one would also think that the fed NDP would as well - They didn't.

Yeah, it's Forum. Yeah it's IVR. But still...

BTW, the KM decision was on November 30, 2016 while Forum was in the field one week later on December 6 - 7, 2016.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/e11dd084-82dd-40c6-a969-5ef1c2207675Fed%20Horserace%20Release%202016%2012%2008(JC)_AM.pdf

[Lotuslander]

Have analyzed all 87 BC ridings... but I will zero in on just one Van Isle provincial seat for 2017 (5 similar provincial seats/dynamics on Van Isle).

And that riding is Cowichan Valley. 2013 results:

BC NDP: 40.1%
BC Lib: 34.9%
BC Green: 19.2%
BC Con: 4.6%

This seat has always been a BC NDP stronghold historically.

Now the BC Cons are leaderless and won't have a leader for the first time, during a BC election, since the year 1903. Along with infighting and internal party lawsuits as well as the fact that the BC Cons are insolvent, I doubt that they will even run any candidates in 2017 since the 1903 election as well.

With data to suggest that former BC Con voters would almost en masse vote BC Lib (Kootenay East in 2009/2013 is a good example), the BC Libs would have likely taken the BC Con vote here in 2013, which would have resulted in a very marginal BC NDP (40.1%) to BC Lib (39.5%) win in 2013 - a slim 0.6% margin.

Now incumbent BC NDP MLA Bill Routley has stepped down and it will be an open seat without any "incumbent effect". Honestly, I think Routley saw the writing on the wall and stepped down as a result.

As well, I know for a fact that both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat. The BC Greens have a strong 19.2% base to already start out with:

BC Greens: running high profile Area B Director for the Cowichan Valley Regional District Sonia Furstenau. Sonia Furstenau has received major media coverage over the past few years involving the Shawnigan Lake fiasco;

BC Libs: running 2013 candidate Steve Housser (former CBC TV reporter) and they have already been on the ground campaigning on the doorsteps;

BC NDP: nomination meeting in January and 4 candidates in running - local fed NDP riding prez, local NDP constituency association official, another NDP-linked candidate as well as a fourth;

Nevertheless, the BC Greens Furstenau is the highest profile candidate running in that riding and is also running on a major issue in the riding. And unlike the 2013 fringe BC Greens under invisible Jane Sterk, Weaver always grabs the media spotlight. And again, some media pundits expect Weaver to "win" the 2017 leader's debate, which will result in big "mo" and media attention for the BC Greens.

With other "CATI" data points that I have seen as well, even six months out I cannot see the BC NDP holding the riding of Cowichan Valley in 2017.

I highly suspect that either the BC Greens or BC Libs will take this seat in 2017. Again, overall 5 seats akin to the Cowichan Valley dynamics are extant on Van Isle, which is still always a harder region to predict seats for than either BC's interior or Metro Vancouver.

[Lotuslander]

Speaking of the Kinder Morgan pipeline decision, here's an interesting juxtaposition from Friday: AB NDP preem Notley with her chief of staff Brian Topp. Back during the 2013 BC election, Brian Topp was the then BC NDP campaign manager and part of the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" with then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix. Of course, the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" killed the BC NDP in interior BC and Metro Vancouver in terms of lost seats/popular vote share.

Yet here is Topp meeting about KM with BC preem Clark in a completely reversed role... this time with a pro-KM position:

[adma]

I see the ON NDP trolling flakes at it again... posting extraneous or off-topic messages.... akin to a rogue Jehovah's Witness sect. Too funny.

It's no more "ON NDP trolling talk" than my earlier extraneous/off-topic posted link was "non-West Van modernist hysterical preservationist talk".  Okay?

(In related news, I guess this'd be your cup of tea... https://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2016/12/10/windsor-area-custom-renovation-in-time-for-christmas.html )

[adma]

And again, to be fair, Lotuslander...in many respects, my position re BC electoral prospects is significantly *closer* to yours than Adam T's position is.  In fact, if you want proof, look back to a serious argument I had with him around the beginning of the year re the likeability-or-unlikeability, far-right-or-moderation, electability-or-non-electability of Christy Clark--it certainly wasn't NDP-shill talk on my part.

However, I also made a point of striking a "disinterested observer" position, because, well, I'm *not* in any explicit political camp.  In fact, I haven't actually actively worked for any party or candidate in at least a decade.  Therefore, I'm shilling for neither the NDP nor for Christy Clark--it helps me to be an agile "free-of-mind" electoral witness.

By comparison, what you're doing is shilling, and it compromises your tone of observation.  And in fact, it's counter-productive insofar as I'm actually *embarassed* to be, if not bullish, at least "bullish-allowance" re BCLiberal prospects or BCNDP non-prospects, because you're likely to go all blowhard "see?  I was right!"
To which I respond...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMaUBeaiHnQ

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Speaking of the Kinder Morgan pipeline decision, here's an interesting juxtaposition from Friday: AB NDP preem Notley with her chief of staff Brian Topp. Back during the 2013 BC election, Brian Topp was the then BC NDP campaign manager and part of the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" with then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix. Of course, the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" killed the BC NDP in interior BC and Metro Vancouver in terms of lost seats/popular vote share.

Yet here is Topp meeting about KM with BC preem Clark in a completely reversed role... this time with a pro-KM position:

damn girl christy clark is lowkey thicc

[DL]

There is an obvious key difference on Kinder Morgan in 2013 compared to today. in 2013 Alberta was ruled by a rabidly rightwing government that was denying that climate change existed and boasted about doing absolutely NOTHING to reduce GHG emissions and the federal Harper government at the time was singing from the same songbook. Today Alberta is in the forefront of the most aggressive measures to combat climate change in Canada.

Its interesting to speculate on what would have happened if the even more climate-change denying Wildrose Party had won the 2015 Alberta election on a platform of defiantly doing NOTHING and wanting to build smokestacks to the moon - Ayn Rand style. Does anyone think there is any chance that the Trudeau government would even consider approving pipelines from Alberta to sea if the province was led by climate change deniers?

[Njall]

in 2013 Alberta was ruled by a rabidly rightwing government that was denying that climate change existed and boasted about doing absolutely NOTHING to reduce GHG emissions and the federal Harper government at the time was singing from the same songbook.

I have to take exception to that claim. Alberta's PC government enacted the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation in 2007, which was the first substantive government action to put a price on carbon in North America. While the SGER was certainly not nearly as effective as measures like the BC carbon tax, the claim that Alberta blatantly denied climate change and boasted about taking no action is 100% false.

[DL]

OK fair enough, but the PCs policies on climate change were very very very minimal and would never have been enough to give Trudeau the "fig leaf" he needed to be able to approve KM...unless of course you think that had Prentice won the 2015 as expected he would have pulled an "only Nixon could go to China" move and introduced an aggressive climate change plan himself that would have been much like what the Alberta NDP ended up doing. i have my doubts.

[136or142]

And again, to be fair, Lotuslander...in many respects, my position re BC electoral prospects is significantly *closer* to yours than Adam T's position is.  In fact, if you want proof, look back to a serious argument I had with him around the beginning of the year re the likeability-or-unlikeability, far-right-or-moderation, electability-or-non-electability of Christy Clark--it certainly wasn't NDP-shill talk on my part.

However, I also made a point of striking a "disinterested observer" position, because, well, I'm *not* in any explicit political camp.  In fact, I haven't actually actively worked for any party or candidate in at least a decade.  Therefore, I'm shilling for neither the NDP nor for Christy Clark--it helps me to be an agile "free-of-mind" electoral witness.

By comparison, what you're doing is shilling, and it compromises your tone of observation.  And in fact, it's counter-productive insofar as I'm actually *embarassed* to be, if not bullish, at least "bullish-allowance" re BCLiberal prospects or BCNDP non-prospects, because you're likely to go all blowhard "see?  I was right!"
To which I respond...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMaUBeaiHnQ

I'm not sure what you're referring to.  The only thing I recall is the I called, which I still believe, that Christy Clark is a narcissist who has no interest in public policy other than to the degree that it gets her into the spotlight.  She is an absolutely terrible and completely phony person.  Though, as I believe I also wrote at the time, a lot of people say that she can also be a genuinely nice person in personal dealings.

I don't recall writing how I thought that would play into the next election or into the NDP's chances of winning the next election.

Edit:  I may also have written that if the NDP can't win under these circumstances, the party leaders need to seriously rethink the continued existence of the Provincial NDP.  I also stand by that.

[Lotuslander]

There is an obvious key difference on Kinder Morgan in 2013 compared to today.

Only difference is that the BC media is pitting the KM matter as a battle between the BC NDP v. the AB NDP, which can confuse voters on the NDP "brand" vis-a-vis KM.

And Horgan's inconsistent positions on KM (along with many other resource developments) will obviously be played by the BC Libs as a "symbol" in terms of jobs/economy akin to the 2013 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHPi2wFlUDs

Just today, former BC NDP premier Dan Miller came out in the Vancouver Sun:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/opinion-ndp-must-learn-that-you-can-sell-oil-and-protect-the-environment

Akin to the 2013 campaign, it appears that the BC NDP fears the Greens in inner Van City proper and southern Van Isle so much (to protect their incumbents) that they have basically written off interior BC and much of Metro Vancouver. Again.

BC Green leader Weaver has been all over the airwaves with his anti-KM message... major Van City talk/news station CKNW, CBC radio, Victoria's CHEK-TV, and on and on the list goes. Weaver is known to be a media hound. Horgan? All quiet. Just don't get it.

[adma]

I'm not sure what you're referring to.  The only thing I recall is the I called, which I still believe, that Christy Clark is a narcissist who has no interest in public policy other than to the degree that it gets her into the spotlight.  She is an absolutely terrible and completely phony person.  Though, as I believe I also wrote at the time, a lot of people say that she can also be a genuinely nice person in personal dealings.

But you see, it's those kinds of characterizations (or for that matter, DL's characterization of Alberta's past "rabidly rightwing government") that fuel the sneers of a Lotuslander.  He gets his jollies out of beating the cr@p out of candy-a$$ wimps like you, so to speak--you're an easy mark for him, and it's an "easy markness" that he projects onto anyone (including myself) who has, er, "issues" with his bombastic Viagra-fueled form of political judgment.

I mean, I'm not altogether *denying* what you're saying about Christy Clark; but hey--she's a politician;-) And from my chosen "disinterested" position, I can channel the sentiment of "indifferent middle" voters for whom BCLiberal remains (like the Alta PCs long remained, even through the Klein years) a safe-choice comfort option unless they're convinced/coerced otherwise.  And in that case, you're ironically handicapped by "knowing her too well"...

[Lotuslander]

Former BC NDP preem Dan Miller's position on KM also corroborates former BC NDP premier Mike Harcourt's  position on KM and a main reason why Harcourt publicly left the party 2 1/2 years ago. BTW, Harcourt was a former Van City mayor and on the moderate enviro wing of the BC NDP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/former-premier-mike-harcourt-quits-bc-ndp-in-public-and-nasty-split/article17751648/

And tonight, Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer is musing that BC NDP leader Horgan may potentially flip-flop again on KM. In politics, if a politician is inconsistent and flip-flops too many times... they then lose their credibility with the electorate. Furthermore, the hard-core enviro wing apparently controlling the BC NDP will undoubtedly also scream at the top of their lungs:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/vaughn-palmer-is-public-disagreement-an-opening-for-horgan-to-shift-positions

[Njall]

OK fair enough, but the PCs policies on climate change were very very very minimal and would never have been enough to give Trudeau the "fig leaf" he needed to be able to approve KM...unless of course you think that had Prentice won the 2015 as expected he would have pulled an "only Nixon could go to China" move and introduced an aggressive climate change plan himself that would have been much like what the Alberta NDP ended up doing. i have my doubts.

Oh absolutely. I think that Prentice would have moved on climate change in a much more concentrated way than past governments had, although it would not have been to the extent of the action that the NDP has taken.

[136or142]

I'm not sure what you're referring to.  The only thing I recall is the I called, which I still believe, that Christy Clark is a narcissist who has no interest in public policy other than to the degree that it gets her into the spotlight.  She is an absolutely terrible and completely phony person.  Though, as I believe I also wrote at the time, a lot of people say that she can also be a genuinely nice person in personal dealings.

But you see, it's those kinds of characterizations (or for that matter, DL's characterization of Alberta's past "rabidly rightwing government") that fuel the sneers of a Lotuslander.  He gets his jollies out of beating the cr@p out of candy-a$$ wimps like you, so to speak--you're an easy mark for him, and it's an "easy markness" that he projects onto anyone (including myself) who has, er, "issues" with his bombastic Viagra-fueled form of political judgment.

I mean, I'm not altogether *denying* what you're saying about Christy Clark; but hey--she's a politician;-) And from my chosen "disinterested" position, I can channel the sentiment of "indifferent middle" voters for whom BCLiberal remains (like the Alta PCs long remained, even through the Klein years) a safe-choice comfort option unless they're convinced/coerced otherwise.  And in that case, you're ironically handicapped by "knowing her too well"...

Even if I didn't have Lotuslander on ignore, I wouldn't care in the slightest what he 'thinks.'

This isn't the case of her being a politician, I know what normal politician's are like and your argument which you acknowledge is based on not knowing anything about her, is the tired false equivalence of 'they all do it.'

I think you need to be here to fully appreciate what I mean when I claim that Christy Clark is only interested in issues when she knows there are cameras recording the events.

[Lotuslander]

Back to the narrative over former BC NDP preem Dan Miller coming out yesterday supporting KM, former B C NDP preem Harcourt quitting the BC NDP over KM, and one defeated interior BC NDP MLA in 2013 blaming Dix over his anti-KM position resulting in major popular vote share/seat losses in interior BC in 2013. The BC NDP, however, did retain some BC interior seats and time for some preliminary analysis of same heading into the 2017 BC election.

1. North Coast (comprises Prince Rupert and Haida Gwaii)

Always a safe BC NDP and the BC NDP will retain same in 2017. Nevertheless, while the BC Libs have always nominated a sacrificial lamb here... 2017 is different. As a matter of fact, the BC Libs have a nomination race here between two high profile locals - former Prince Rupert mayor Herb Pond and Rodney Proskiw, who is involved with many service org.s in PR. Begs the question... why are they even running? Because 3 local area BC NDP MLAs signed the so-called "Lelu Declaration", along with a minority of First Nations, opposing a local $36 billion proposed LNG facility by the Petronas consortium.

Several legislative reporters have also suggested that the BC NDP is committing political suicide as a result of signing the "Lelu Declaration" in the region considering that the majority of FNs and communities back this $36 billion project. In fact, two opinion polls show it also receives broad public support.

2. Skeena (comprising Kitimat and Terrace in neighbouring riding)

Transposed results for 2013:

BC NDP: 47.7%
BC Lib: 43.3%
BC Con: 6.8%
BCP: 2.2% (offshoot of Social Credit/Unity)

Had the BC Cons not run here in 2013, based upon relevant data (2009/2013 Kootenay East), the BC Con vote would likely have gone en masse to the BC Libs and would likely have been a BC Lib pick-up, notwithstanding the BCP vote. I suspect that incumbent BC NDP MLA Robin Austin saw the writing on the wall and decided not to run again, leaving the seat open. The BC NDP have not nominated yet, but have 4 candidates running for their nomination. While the BC Greens did not run here in 2013, they will be running a candidate here in 2017 as well.

OTOH, the BC Libs recruited high profile Haisla First Nation Chief Ellis Ross from Kitimat who is well known, not only opposing the Northern Gateway Pipeline terminus in Kitimat, but also supporting LNG in Kitimat inclusive of the Royal Dutch Shell consortium and the Chevron/Woodside consortium, which are $40 billion and $25 billion projects respectfully. BTW, in attendance at Ellis Ross' nomination meeting was Kitselas FN chief Joe Bevan as well as Shane Gottfriedson, BC Regional Chief of the Assembly of First Nations. Ellis' reason for running for the BC Libs? "The BC NDP is against every development project in our region".

Interesting to note that the polling stations within all First Nations in the riding always vote heavily BC NDP and I suspect that dynamic will change in 2017. Bottom line? Highly doubt that the BC NDP will retain this seat in 2017 and most likely a BC Lib pick-up.

3. Stikine (comprising Smithers and Stewart and a neighbouring riding in far NW BC)

Transposed results for 2013:

BC NDP: 46.6%
BC Lib: 37%
BC Con: 6.2% (endorsed by previous BC Lib MLA in 2013)
CHP: 6%
Greens: 3.5%

Incumbent BC NDP MLA Doug Donaldson, who also signed the "Lelu Declaration", would still have won this riding in 2013, albeit narrowly, even with the BC Con not running. Who knows whether the CHP will run here again in 2017 or not. A large First Nation component resides in this riding and FN polling stations always vote heavily BC NDP. However, various FNs in this riding have signed project benefit agreements with 3 separate proposed nat gas pipelines running from NE BC to proposed NW BC coastal LNG facilities, which the BC NDP opposes. And this riding is also heavily resource dependent in terms of mining/forestry.

The BC Libs have nominated Gitanyow FN deputy chief Wanda Good as their candidate and she is running on the same grounds as Ellis Ross in the neighbouring riding of Skeena - "the BC NDP opposes all development in our region". I suspect that some of the previous heavily FN NDP vote here will migrate over to Good in 2017 and it will be very tough for incumbent BC NDP MLA Donaldson to hang on here.

4. Columbia River-Revelstoke (bordering the Alberta border in central BC)

Transposed results for 2013:

BC NDP: 48.5%
BC Lib:  35.9%
BC Con: 8.7%
BC Green: 6.9%

Incumbent BC NDP MLA Norm Macdonald, who apparently was quite popular in the riding, has stepped down and this will be an open seat in 2017. Again, had the BC Cons not run here in 2017, the BC NDP would have still won the seat, albeit marginally. The riding comprises a mix of tourism and resource development and it's the BC NDP anti-resource development meme that will continue to hurt them in interior BC in 2017. The BC Libs have re-nominated their 2013 candidate Doug Clovechok while the BC NDP have nominated Invermere mayor Gerry Taft. Taft has faced both provincial and local scrutiny of his nomination and he seems to have disappeared from social media ever since. Remember, this riding is a somewhat socially conservative riding:

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/invermere-mayor-claims-mysterious-minority-status-to-win-ndp-nomination

http://www.columbiavalleypioneer.com/?p=18989

Again, for a myriad of reasons, the BC NDP has an uphill struggle attempting to hold onto this riding in 2017.

5./6. Nelson Creston/Kootenay West (neighbouring ridings in southern BC)

These two ridings represent somewhat of an "island" in interior BC and their demographics are very "green". Safe seats for the BC NDP and I suspect that the BC Greens will place 2nd in both in 2017 with the BC Libs well back in 3rd place.


PS. The latest saga on the KM file: Yesterday BC NDP leader John Horgan stated to the Vancouver Sun as follows:

"B.C., within Confederation, has every right to dictate what goes through its ports."

Such politically incompetent and inflammatory rhetoric will eventually bite one in the arse. Seems like Horgan is losin' it. In fact, BC ports are established under the Canada Marine Act and are under the jurisdiction/controlled by Transport Canada. BC ports are entirely under federal jurisdiction. Just common knowledge.

[lilTommy]

Have analyzed all 87 BC ridings... but I will zero in on just one Van Isle provincial seat for 2017 (5 similar provincial seats/dynamics on Van Isle).

And that riding is Cowichan Valley. 2013 results:

BC NDP: 40.1%
BC Lib: 34.9%
BC Green: 19.2%
BC Con: 4.6%

This seat has always been a BC NDP stronghold historically.

Now the BC Cons are leaderless and won't have a leader for the first time, during a BC election, since the year 1903. Along with infighting and internal party lawsuits as well as the fact that the BC Cons are insolvent, I doubt that they will even run any candidates in 2017 since the 1903 election as well.

With data to suggest that former BC Con voters would almost en masse vote BC Lib (Kootenay East in 2009/2013 is a good example), the BC Libs would have likely taken the BC Con vote here in 2013, which would have resulted in a very marginal BC NDP (40.1%) to BC Lib (39.5%) win in 2013 - a slim 0.6% margin.

Now incumbent BC NDP MLA Bill Routley has stepped down and it will be an open seat without any "incumbent effect". Honestly, I think Routley saw the writing on the wall and stepped down as a result.

As well, I know for a fact that both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat. The BC Greens have a strong 19.2% base to already start out with:

BC Greens: running high profile Area B Director for the Cowichan Valley Regional District Sonia Furstenau. Sonia Furstenau has received major media coverage over the past few years involving the Shawnigan Lake fiasco;

BC Libs: running 2013 candidate Steve Housser (former CBC TV reporter) and they have already been on the ground campaigning on the doorsteps;

BC NDP: nomination meeting in January and 4 candidates in running - local fed NDP riding prez, local NDP constituency association official, another NDP-linked candidate as well as a fourth;

Nevertheless, the BC Greens Furstenau is the highest profile candidate running in that riding and is also running on a major issue in the riding. And unlike the 2013 fringe BC Greens under invisible Jane Sterk, Weaver always grabs the media spotlight. And again, some media pundits expect Weaver to "win" the 2017 leader's debate, which will result in big "mo" and media attention for the BC Greens.

With other "CATI" data points that I have seen as well, even six months out I cannot see the BC NDP holding the riding of Cowichan Valley in 2017.

I highly suspect that either the BC Greens or BC Libs will take this seat in 2017. Again, overall 5 seats akin to the Cowichan Valley dynamics are extant on Van Isle, which is still always a harder region to predict seats for than either BC's interior or Metro Vancouver.

I think you have the BCNDP info wrong?, 5 candidates and Jan 15th nomination. Unless you have something more updated?

http://localeye.ca/2016/09/07/ndp-nomination-race-begins/

NDP candidates look to be: "... Lori Iannidinardo is the long-serving CVRD director for Cowichan Bay; Tim McGonigle is a five-term councillor for the Town of Lake Cowichan (and alternate CVRD director); and Debra Toporowski is a councillor on the Cowichan Tribes band council. Two others know their way around a campaign: Leanne Finlayson is a constituency assistant for MP Alistair MacGregor, and Georgia Collins, the development coordinator for the Inclusive Leadership Co-op"