2017 British Columbia election

[Lotuslander]

I think you have the BCNDP info wrong?, 5 candidates and Jan 15th nomination. Unless you have something more updated?

http://localeye.ca/2016/09/07/ndp-nomination-race-begins/

I notice that article is dated September 7, 2016 and a 5th candidate is in the race (Tim McGonigle is a five-term councillor for the Town of Lake Cowichan);

I base my info on a blog called "Cowichan Conversations", run by local former BC NDP MLA Richard Hughes, dated about two months later on November 2, 2016, which omits that 5th candidate's name for whatever reason.

https://richardhughes.ca/a-lively-time-ahead-for-the-race-to-be-cowichans-next-mla/

Remember that the BC NDP has a policy whereby when a female MLA steps down, she is replaced by another female candidate. And when a male MLA steps down (as in this case), he is replaced by either a female or a male with some minority status.

As for the BC NDP nomination race itself, always tough to call... but I am leaning toward Georgia Collins. Collins ran for the fed NDP nomination in Cowichan-Malahat for the 2015 race, in a 4-person race IIRC, and was just narrowly edged out by now incumbent fed NDP MP Alistair MacGregor.

Collins is now the local fed NDP riding prez and is attractive, has a good persona and has some profile on a local high profile Shawnigan Lake issue within the riding.

[Lotuslander]

A new Innovative Research opinion poll (opt-in online) is out today on the Kinder Morgan pipeline approval with BC results:

Approve: 47%
Ambivalent: 21%
Oppose: 32% (23% "strongly" oppose)

http://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Leakage-Pipeline-Decisions-2016-Slides.pdf

Again, that 23% "Strongly" oppose KM number is the key figure and has been consistent with other polling over the years. It's a small minority voter pool that both the BC NDP and BC Greens are fighting over... leaving basically the rest for the BC Libs.

CATI polling on LNG, natural gas extraction/production, certain mines, BC Hydro's Site C dam, etc. all show strong majorities of support in BC. Yet, again, both the BC NDP and the BC Greens oppose same and are fighting over the same small voter pool... leaving basically the rest for the BC Libs. These different projects/political party positions are all "Symbolic" during an election campaign.

People typically vote in their self interests and their livelihoods and jobs/economy has always been the key issue (at the top of the list) during BC election campaigns. The mantra... "It's the economy, stupid" always rings true.

Again, with both the BC NDP and BC Greens fighting over the same, small hard-core voter pool... no path to gov't here whatsoever. I just don't get it.

And BC NDP leader John Horgan doesn't need these headlines either (from todays G & M):

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-leader-john-horgan-vows-to-fight-ottawa-on-trans-mountain-pipeline/article33318119/

[DL]

People may vote for their "self-interest" - but the fact is for the about 98% of British Columbians it will make no difference to their self-interest whether Kinder Morgan is expanded or not. There is clearly segment of people in the Lower Mainland who feels it could be damaging to their self-interest if the volume of tankers carrying bitumen by their homes increases seven-fold. On the pro-KM side, who cares? There are people for whom having the pipeline built is in their self-interest - they are called Albertans. If you live in Alberta there is clearly every reason to want a pipeline to tidewater from which to export bitumen. If you live in suburban Vancouver - why would you give a damn if the pipeline is built? Its not going to create any jobs for anyone living in Surrey and the economic returns (if any) will all go to Alberta. There may be a small number of temporary jobs in BC on the construction of the expansion...otherwise, its a  big nothing. IMHO, people who strongly oppose the pipeline are vastly more likely to see it as a vote determining issues than people who passively go along with the expansion. There are very very few people in BC who are enthusiastcally pro-pipeline who are going to jump up and down with placards chanting "go pipeline"...why should they - its all about taking Alberta's oil to port and BC is just being crossed over - there is little in it for BC.

If we want to talk about people voting in their self-interest, the BC Liberals have vastly increasing monthly MSP premiums (and BC is now the only province left in Canada with a regressive flat tax to pay for health care) - every single BCer pays that premium and its skyrocketing. If I'm the average BC voters in suburban Vancouver - I probably don't actually give a damn whether a pipeline from Alberta crosses the territory of my province or not - but i sure do give a damn about skyrocketing MSP premiums and the really low quality public services that BC is notorious for.

[Lotuslander]

People may vote for their "self-interest" - but the fact is for the about 98% of British Columbians it will make no difference to their self-interest whether Kinder Morgan is expanded or not.

The political fallout from Adrian Dix's "Kinder Morgan Surprise" during the 2013 BC election provides some clear indication about folks voting intentions. Again, the BC NDP lost popular vote share/seats throughout interior BC, the Fraser Valley, and Metro Vancouver. Yep - as a result of KM.

The BC NDP did, however increase popular vote share in Van City proper as a result, narrowly winning Vancouver Point Grey and Vancouver-Fairview from the BC Libs - these seats are inner city Vancouver bordering Burrard Inlet. On the other side of Burrard inlet, the North Shore also gained popular vote share as well. In fact, in one riding, 2009 BC Green voters shifted big time to the BC NDP as a result.

But these minor gains for the BC NDP came at a huge expense for the BC NDP elsewhere. Again, KM was a "symbol" of the BC NDP's preceived anti-resource development, economy/jobs stances. Hell, even in the aftermath of the 2013 election, even John Horgan told the media that the anti-KM position was a "symbol" as such, among others.

KM employs/will employ engineering firms/consultants from downtown Van City. KM requires work camps along its routing as well - Britco in Agassiz, BC in the Fraser Valley and Horizon West in Kamloops, for example, have been major modular work camp manufacturers for the AB oil sands. These guys need the work from KM.

And, of course, the unionized BC Building Trades fully support KM, among all other major projects.

KM was a lightening rod/symbol in the 2013 BC election. Heading into 2017, roughly 5 major LNG projects are nearing the final approval stage (Petronas - 2017, Shell, 2018, ExxonMobil - 2020, Chevron - 2020, and CNOOC (Nexen) - 2020.

You are looking at combined CAPEX of ~$200 billion here. Singularly, each of these projects could be considered the world's largest industrial project. Each includes nat gas pipeline from NE BC to coastal NW BC (akin to 5 KM pipelines).  And major expansion of drilling, natural gas processing plants, etc. in the NE basins. All major employment nodes. All have majority FN buy-in and community support. And CATI polling also confirms majority BC support.

BTW, after 5 - 6 year build-out and after several years of operation thereafter each 12 million/ton installed LNG capacity will provide ~$1 billion in additional revenues to the BC treasury. Based upon combined total build-out of 114 million tons/annum by the roughly early 2030s, one is looking at up to another roughly $8 - 9 billion/annum into the BC treasury. These funds help pay for healthcare, education, social services, etc.

Yet the BC NDP opposes these LNG plants, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas drilling/fracking. Even some mines. A completely different BC NDP than the 1990's version, which was all pro-development. Again, the BC NDP seems to have been hijacked by a hard-core enviro contingent on the SW coast.

The BC Libs have been continually exploiting same portraying the BC NDP as the "No Development Party" and BC NDP Leader Horgan as "Dr. No". The "Kinder Morgan Surprise" killed the BC NDP in 2013... but these major projects brings the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" to a much higher level exponentially. Cannot emphasize "It's the economy, stupid" narrative enough.

Again, today, Ipsos released new KM polling numbers for BC (opt-in online panel/smaller sample size):

Support: 53%
Ambivalent: 21%
Disagree: 26% (19% "strongly" disagree)

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16229

And long-time Global BC political reporter Keith Baldrey's take on it all:

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 http://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-how-will-pipeline-approval-play-out-in-b-c-1.4550529#sthash.4CB8NVzm.dpuf

There is clearly segment of people in the Lower Mainland who feels it could be damaging to their self-interest if the volume of tankers carrying bitumen by their homes increases seven-fold.

Oh yeah. I'm certain that a small segment of Metro Van's population is emotionally fear-driven on an oil tanker going down based upon FUD. I'm also sure that the talk of the Exxon Valdez sinking still resonates. However, that ship was single-hulled and captained by a drunk that hit a reef - criminal negligence.

In any event, VLCC oil tankers, for nearly 40 years since 1977, have delivered crude oil from Alaska to WA State refineries virtually on a daily basis. They traverse past the west coast of Van Isle, past Victoria, through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, past Van Isle's Saanich Peninsula/Gulf Isles, through the Strait of Georgia to as close as the CA border - BP's massive Cherry Point Refinery.

Only smaller Aframax tankers depart from KM's marine loading facility in Burrard inlet - all double-hulled. And they will have two pilots on board from the Port of Vancouver right to Race Rock - off the west coast of Van Isle and back. Concurrently, 2 large escort tugs (with high HP engines that can move these puppies on a dime) will also escort these tankers to/from Race Rock. 'Twas all explained in detail on one of Metro Vancouver's 6 pm newscasts the other night.

And still only represents 1% of Port of Vancouver shipping traffic. The only "spills" that occur are from accidental discharge of ship bilge pumps or bunker oil from their engines - not the cargo itself.

[Lotuslander]

If we want to talk about people voting in their self-interest, the BC Liberals have vastly increasing monthly MSP premiums (and BC is now the only province left in Canada with a regressive flat tax to pay for health care) - every single BCer pays that premium and its skyrocketing. If I'm the average BC voters in suburban Vancouver - I probably don't actually give a damn whether a pipeline from Alberta crosses the territory of my province or not - but i sure do give a damn about skyrocketing MSP premiums and the really low quality public services that BC is notorious for.

Not exactly correct. Only about 40% of BCers pay the MSP - those covered under union contracts have their employer pay for same while those with under $30,000/year incomes don't pay at all. BTW, most MSP rate categories are either flat-lined or going down January 1, 2017. Here's CBC news table of the decreased MSP premiums:

https://i.cbc.ca/1.3896658.1481746160!/fileImage/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/original_620/msp-hikes.png [plug the string into your browser]

It's a dedicated tax to healthcare, which brings in roughly $2.5 billion/annum. BC Green leader Weaver wants to move to the ON model - payroll tax/income tax surcharge. Problem is that revenue must match the ~$2.5 billion in annual lost MSP revenue. Furthermore, a good chunk of BCer's who have their MSP premiums paid by their employer would see them now paying additional tax. Becomes a very complex matter.

The BC NDP also vows to eliminate MSP but does not explain how it will do so either.

BTW, based upon 6 separate demographic groups and based upon all taxation (carbon tax, MSP, child care credit, income tax, PST, etc.), BCers pay either the 2nd or 3rd lowest in Canada in all demographic categories.

Now we move to taxation and fiscal management narratives. BC has had five balanced budgets/surpluses in a row. The BC NDP also vows to expand annual program spending, which will put BC into a deficit situation. For example, the BC NDP will bring in $10/day child care. It's common ground that said annual program spending will cost $1,5 - $ 2 billion/annum, which right there will already put BC into a deficit position.

Just before the 2013 BC election campaign, the BC NDP stated that this program was "too expensive - just not affordable" when they were trying to attract centrist voters. This time, the BC NDP looks to have it's most left-wing platform, in terms of annual program spending, since pre-1972 resulting in major budgetary deficits. Feeds into the "tax and spend" BC NDP meme and won't fly with the electorate either.

[Lotuslander]

Another major project in BC, for example, is BC Hydro's $8 billion Site C dam in NE BC's Peace River District - an area of major natural gas/some oil production and wheat/barley fields. It's the 3rd dam on the Peace River interconnected with the WAC Bennett Dam and the Peace Canyon Dam.

It's under construction and expected completion date is 2024 -2025 and has been on BC Hydro's books since the early 1980's.

The federal/provincial Joint Review Panel (combined environmental assessments) completed its assessment on May 1, 2014. It's final conclusion:

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https://www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca/050/documents/p63919/99173E.pdf

As a background, the NEB has stated that BC Hydro accounted for 75% of net electricity imports from the U.S. last year. In August, BC Hydro had its highest summer one day electricity demand on record. And tonight looks like it may well be BC Hydro's highest winter one day electricity demand on record.

An additional 1 million are expected to reside within Metro Vancouver  alone over the next couple of decades according to forecasts. In addition, major industrial electricity demand is also forecast.

BTW, BC Hydro has the 3rd lowest electricity prices in North America.

Again, BC Hydro's Site C dam is under construction and has participation from local First Nations-owned companies as well as the unionized BC Building Trades and unionized firms non-affiliated with the BCBT.

A "CATI" opinion poll by Abacus Data, from a few months back on BC's attitude toward Site C:

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http://abacusdata.ca/support-for-site-c-remains-broad/#sthash.ZAp732uk.dpuf

The Abacus Data findings were also corroborated by an opinion poll from NRG Research.

Just last week long-time Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer visited BC Hydro's Site C dam in NE BC:

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http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-site-c-so-far-advanced-no-government-would-kill-it

So why would any political party attempt to "kill" BC Hydro's Site C? Because, akin to the KM pipeline, a hardcore enviro contingent on BC's SW coast is against same. The rhetoric includes that the flooded valley bottom "could feed one million people". Bizarre. All treed and some hay farms as the JRP concluded.

Andrew Weaver and the BC Greens have consistently been against BC Hydro's Site C dam, for whatever reason, as they have been on KM.  OTOH, BC NDP leader John Horgan has flip-flopped on both matters. Again, it appears that the hardcore enviro ("Leap Manifesto") contingent within the BC NDP have taken control of BC Hydro's Site C issue as well. To wit, tonight's headline from the Globe and Mail:

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-leader-john-horgan-open-to-shutting-down-site-c-dam/article33344009/

It's becoming increasingly apparent that the BC Libs will "own" the jobs/economy narrative in the 2017 campaign. OTOH, it also appears, for some perverse reason, that both the BC NDP and the BC Greens will battle over the enviro vote... perhaps even battling over winning opposition. Weird.

It's also becoming more apparent that the 2013 BC election was a watershed election in that the BC NDP has been taken over by a hardcore enviro element. In the 2013 election aftermath, one long-time BC NDP insider stated/wrote that the BC NDP finally had its own "COPE moment". One needs to be a long-time resident of Van City proper in order to understand that metaphor.

Concurrently, post-2013 the BC Greens have morphed from a fringe, irrelevant force into something that needs to be reckoned with under Weaver.

The 2017 election dynamics are becoming increasingly similar to the federal 2011 election dynamics whereby the Harper Cons sliced off "blue" fed Libs while the Layton NDP sliced off "red" Libs leaving the Ignatieff Liberals "squeezed" and in bad shape.

In the BC context, it's becoming increasingly clear that the BC Libs will slice off 2013 blue-collar BC NDP voters while the BC Greens will slice off both 2013 enviro BC NDP voters as well as 2013 BC NDP federal "red" Liberal voters with the BC NDP becoming "squeezed", as well, in the same context as the 2011 fed Ignatieff Libs.

Grab your bag of popcorn watching all this unfold into May, 2017.

[DL]

blah blah blah blah blah from Lotuslander who suffers from "NDP derangement syndrome"... Do you have some special padded cell in your house that is all orange and lined with pictures of everyone from Tommy Douglas to Dave Barrett to Jack Layton to Mike Harcourt where you can go in and do some primal screaming and bang your fists against the wall? What's the deal with you? Did your mother leave your father for an NDP politician when you were a little boy? Were you in love with someone who was an NDP supporter who rejected you? If the BC NDP actually did win the May 2017 election would we have to put you on suicide watch?

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to be an amateur pundit, but this is the same person who wrote a 5,000 word essay on this site last year about how the NDP was 100% GUARANTEED to lose Victoria to the Green Party...the NDP incumbent won it by a large margin. This is the same person who wrote endless pseudo-scientific analysis of Coquitlam Burke Mountain where supposedly a BC Liberal win in the byelection was absolutely totally 100% guaranteed...the NDP won the seat by 7% (he also hinted the the Greens could even win Vancouver-Mount Pleasant - the NDP blew them out of the water by a 45% margin). This is the same person who swore that the federal NDP would be reduced to no more than 5 or 6 seats in BC federally and that the Green party would win several seats on Vancouver island...lo and behold wrong again, the NDP won 14 seats in BC.

I've been wrong in my political predictions in my life, but at least i have the humility to acknowledge that i could be wrong to own up to it when I am wrong. I don't make myself out to be His Holiness the Pope making EX CATHEDRA projections and pronouncements

[Lotuslander]

blah blah blah blah blah from Lotuslander who suffers from "NDP derangement syndrome"... Do you have some special padded cell in your house that is all orange and lined with pictures of everyone from Tommy Douglas to Dave Barrett to Jack Layton to Mike Harcourt where you can go in and do some primal screaming and bang your fists against the wall? What's the deal with you? Did your mother leave your father for an NDP politician when you were a little boy? Were you in love with someone who was an NDP supporter who rejected you? If the BC NDP actually did win the May 2017 election would we have to put you on suicide watch?

Hahaha! Oh man... I almost fell outta of my chair with your comedic relief! As for the rest of your illusory rhetoric... par for the course for the rogue ON NDP Jehovah's Witness sect. Sigh.

Alright then... let's analyze 2 of the 4 Burnaby ridings in Metro Vancouver:

1. Burnaby Lougheed:

2013 transposed results:

BC NDP: 44.1%
BC Lib: 40%
BC Con (Christine Clarke): 6.7%
BC Green: 8.2%

This riding was held by the Libs in 2001, 2005, and 2009. In 2013, the BC Libs ran a weak candidate here and the BC Cons ran a candidate here (with the name Christine Clarke) for the first time in many elections. The combined BC Lib and BC Con vote here would have resulted in a narrow BC Lib win here in 2013 and the Cons won't be running here in 2017.

First time incumbent BC NDP MLA Jane Shin apparently saw the writing on the wall and has decided not to seek re-election leaving B-L an open seat. As for the candidates in 2017:

BC Lib: Steve Darling
- is a well known household name in BC as he had previously been Global BCTV's morning news anchor for 18 years. His nomination certainly surprised and raised eyebrows across the political spectrum.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/former-global-anchor-steve-darling-named-mla-candidate-for-bc-liberals/article32834819/

BC NDP: Katrina Chen
- Burnaby school trustee who is municipally affiliated with BCA (NDP muni farm team);

BC Greens: Joe Keithley

- Known as "Joey sh**thead" with DOA and ran as BC Green candidate in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain by-election;

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/punk-rocker-joe-keithley-to-run-in-burnaby-election-race

Considered a swing riding that slightly leans BC Lib will be quite difficult for BC NDP to hang onto this seat in 2017;

2. Burnaby-Deer Lake

2013 transposed results:

BC NDP: 48.5%
BC Lib: 43.1%
BC Greens: 8.4%

The old Burnaby-Willingdon riding, which the Socreds won many times back in the 1980's (only Burnaby seat that they could win).

The BC Libs held this seat in 2001 and 2005 and the BC NDP narrowly won here in 2009. Back pre-2009 a major high profile issue arose here involving placing a youth detention centre near residential neighbourhood. The BC NDP candidate, Kathy Corrigan (Burnaby mayor's wife) ran with it and won.

Kathy Corrigan has decided to step down for the 2017 election leaving this an open seat.

Now another major high-profile issue has arisen here involving housing that has been on the 6 pm TV newscasts as well as in print media. Involves Burnaby council (BCA - NDP muni farm team) rezoning 1,000's of 1960's/1970's era 3-storey walk-up rental building units in Metrotown to condo towers.

These rental buildings are being torn down displacing lower-income renters - "Demovictions". Interestingly enough, the polling stations comprising these rental apartment buildings trend strongly BC NDP while the condo tower polling stations trend strongly BC Lib.

BTW, well over 100 condo towers are under construction in Burnaby with almost half over 40 storeys in height. Building boom going on.

As for the "Demovictions', numerous protest marches have occurred but the BC NDP has remained silent obviously due to fact that Burnaby council is NDP-controlled. The only political leader attending these rallies is BC Green leader Andrew Weaver.

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/08/22/bc-ndp-ignores-metrotown-demovictions-greens

Now the BC Greens have recruited high profile Metrotown Residents’ Association president and anti-demoviction activist Rick McGowan as their candidate in the riding.

BC NDP: Anne Kang (Burnaby councillor)
BC Lib: Karen Wang (operates 3 daycare centres)

It's a swing riding and one to watch on election night.

As for Burnaby as a whole and just as a curiosity... a few months back Burnaby Firefighters IAFF Local 323 held a large gala attended by the deputy BC preem (who was also presented with an award) and other BC Libs. Surprisingly enough, no BC NDP MLAs were invited. In fact, Burnaby Firefighters are also making major appearances at local Burnaby BC Lib fundraising/campaign events. Never seen that before.

[warandwar]

Hahaha! Oh man... I almost fell outta of my chair with your comedic relief! As for the rest of your illusory rhetoric... par for the course for the rogue ON NDP Jehovah's Witness sect. Sigh.

Damn DL's going to need aloe for that sick burn.

Curious about one thing: You're continuously saying that the BC Con vote will migrate entirely to the Libs, based on like one riding. I don't really see how you can generalize this to the province at large. They could easily vote for a) no one b) another fringe party or even the NDP! The type of 1-1 voter transfer you're talking about almost never happens (well maybe in your one cherry picked example, but not province-wide!)

[Lotuslander]

Curious about one thing: You're continuously saying that the BC Con vote will migrate entirely to the Libs, based on like one riding. I don't really see how you can generalize this to the province at large. They could easily vote for a) no one b) another fringe party or even the NDP! The type of 1-1 voter transfer you're talking about almost never happens (well maybe in your one cherry picked example, but not province-wide!)

Good point. I bring the Kootenay East riding up as a general example as in 2009 the BC Libs, BC NDP, BC Cons, and BC Greens all ran candidates here. In 2013, it was the only riding with 2 candidates (BC Lib/BC NDP). Of course I am making inferences here.

Just look at the riding of Burnaby Lougheed in my previous post and change from 2013 over 2009 for example:

BC NDP: 44.1% (-0.5%)
BC Lib: 40% (-7.9%)
BC Con (Christine Clarke): 6.7% (+6.7%)
BC Green: 8.2% (+1.4%)

I believe one can infer here that the BC Con vote came at the expense of the BC Libs.

Many other ridings more difficult to ascertain... eg. both BC Lib vote goes up/BC Con vote goes up while BC NDP vote goes down. But other data to suggest that 2009 blue collar BC NDP voters ->>> voted BC Lib and BC Lib voters ---> voted Con in 2013.

The BC Cons are quite right-wing (now comatose) and more likely to tap BC Lib voters on the right-wing of the party.  Again, having followed all ridings and their demographics over the years my hunch is that the BC Con vote comes mostly at the expense of the BC Libs. Not always of course.

BTW, the 2013 BC Con candidates in Kamloops-South Thompson (RCMP officer) and in Burnaby North (businessman), for example, have shifted their support over to the BC Libs.

OTOH, the BC Greens are a completely different story. For example, in the Greater Victoria ridings in total, the BC Greens took more 2009 BC Lib votes here than 2009 BC NDP votes in 2013. Yet cross the Malahat Pass into the Cowichan Valley riding the BC Greens gained about 8% in 2013 while the BC NDP dropped by about the same amount over 2009.

And in 2013 there were 24 ridings that the BC Greens did not run but they did run in 2009. Some may think that the 2009 BC Green vote would have shifted over to the BC NDP. Not correct. In fact, in 18 of those 24 ridings the BC NDP vote actually fell:

http://public.tableau.com/profile/cskelton#!/vizhome/GreenPartySplit/Dashboard1

[copy link and place into your browser]

[adma]

Hahaha! Oh man... I almost fell outta of my chair with your comedic relief! As for the rest of your illusory rhetoric... par for the course for the rogue ON NDP Jehovah's Witness sect. Sigh.

Damn DL's going to need aloe for that sick burn.

Again, the way Lotuslander phrases it, "rogue ON NDP Jehovah's Witness sect" might as well be a metaphor for "crazy moneygrubbing b*tch of an ex-wife".

[DC Al Fine]

So back on topic...

I really dislike the new Liberal plan to lend homeowners a down payment. Just a terrible idea.

[warandwar]

So back on topic...

I really dislike the new Liberal plan to lend homeowners a down payment. Just a terrible idea.

Agreed. My uncle teaches econ at UBC, has a quote about it here.

[Lotuslander]

So back on topic...

I really dislike the new Liberal plan to lend homeowners a down payment. Just a terrible idea.

My initial reaction as well. The earlier 15% additional foreigners sales tax in Metro Vancouver was a populist move. The vast majority of BCers agreed with same. The subsequent Metro Vancouver real estate sales data confirmed the negative impact as expected. Then the BC Libs announced other housing initiatives such as a major social/rental housing initiative in conjunction with munis and the feds. Still, will take years before same is completed. All politics of course.

So when the recent initiative came out about assisting first-time home-buyers... first thing that sprang to my mind was WTF? The Metro Van market is cooling and the last thing it needs is another impetus on the demand side.

Hell, over two years ago, the market had peaked wayyyyyyy too much. Then another bizarre 30% - 40% increase in real estate values over the past year. Again, most was in the SFD market yet it impacted all sectors.

Now the media on the local 6 pm newscasts, as well as in print, report upon millennials that are either childless or with children that qualify for the new stringent CMHC mortgage rules but still are unable to save up enough for their down payment due to the vastly increased RE prices over the past few years.

That's tough. Because their current rental payments pay for their landlord's mortgage instead of their own.  I personally learnt that lesson myself when I was about 20.

Then I begin to think that alot of cheaper, older apartment condos or even townhouses are extant in the 'burbs for them to purchase. Moreover, the current Metro Vancouver apartment rental vacancy rate is almost nil and that would also free up rental units.

Alot of knee-jerk reaction and I still need time to digest and analyze the matter.

And tonight the Vancouver Sun is reporting that the exact same BC down-payment program was extant, for about 35 years, from the early 1950's, under then Socred premier WAC Bennett, continued under the BC NDP Barrett years (1972 - 1975) but was then ended by Socred premier Vander Zalm in the late 1980's:

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http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-s-new-second-mortgage-program-is-an-old-socred-idea-with-new-money

And I will leave the final take to BC's political media analysts (Keith Baldrey - Global BC, Gary Mason - G & M, Mike Smyth - The Province) on Twitter:

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[Lotuslander]

Agreed. My uncle teaches econ at UBC, has a quote about it here.

Is he T.D.? If so, he is relatively new to the Metro Van region but enjoys talking to the media. I like him. However, I also tend to disagree with him on many matters. BTW, a few months back, by fluke, I was online and T.D. tweeted out that he requested assistance on a background matter as he was about to appear on TV to discuss same within an hour. So I obliged and forwarded him some Cansim tables from Statscan on the relevant subject matter. And off he went.

If he is T.S., I have had considerable respect for him over the past decade plus.

Irrespective of the foregoing, I have had always the utmost respect in BC for the senior economist of the BC Central Credit Union (now known as Central 1 Credit Union).  Bryan Yu fills those shoes these days while his predecessor was Helmut Pastrick.

[Lotuslander]

Vancouver Island will be the most fluid and unpredictable region of BC's 3 regions during the 2017 BC election. I've already analyzed the riding of Cowichan Valley and here are three more ridings to watch:

1.Saanich North and the islands:

2013 transposed result:

BC NDP: 33.3% (-10.9%)
BC Lib: 32.8% (-11.9%)
BC Green: 32.1% (+20.8%)

The seat was part of the BC Green surge on the southern half of Van Isle in 2013 and as one can see the BC Greens took slightly more votes from the BC Libs than the BC NDP allowing the BC NDP to win the seat, by a hair, for the first time ever.

Looking more closely at the 2013 result, the BC Libs won the majority of the polling stations on the Saanich Peninsula while the BC Greens won most of the rest. On the Gulf Islands, the BC NDP won most of the polling stations while the BC Greens won the rest. BC Libs came in at an abysmal third place here. Federally, the Greens swept the Gulf Island polling stations by an average of 70% - 80% in 2015 and the area has very "green" demographics.

I suspect that the BC NDP won the riding in 2013 as a result of their "Kinder Morgan Surprise" with potential tanker traffic passing by the Gulf Isles. All 3 parties will be running their same 2013 candidates. BC Green candidate Adam Olsen has been championing the anti-KM cause and was the keynote speaker at an anti-KM rally in Victoria a few weeks back.

Seems that the BC Greens have the clearest path to victory here in 2017 with local electoral dynamics and this will likely be their 2nd seat won on election night.

2. Nanaimo:

2013 transposed result:

BC NDP: 45.7%
BC Lib: 37.2%
BC Green: 10.6%
BC Con: 5.4%

Assuming that the BC Con vote here moves over to the BC Libs in 2017, the spread is 3.1%. The BC Greens are targeting all Van Isle seats while the BC Libs have also targeted this seat early on. Candidates:

BC NDP: Leonard Krog - first elected in 1991 and one of BC NDP's most low profile MLAs.
BC Lib: Paris Gaudet - executive director of Innovation Island
BC Green: TBA

Nanaimo is kinda interesting in that the northern half is centre-right while the southern half is centre-left and the political divide is roughly at the Departure Bay Ferry terminal.

The 2015 fed election results may provides some political clues as well. The federal riding of Nanaimo- Ladysmith (with 2 underlying provincial districts) had the following results:

NDP: 33.2% (-12%)
Liberal: 23.5% (+17%)
Con: 23.4% (-17%)
Green: 19.8% (+13%)

Interesting that the NDP vote loss correlates to the Green vote gain while the Con vote loss correlates to the Lib vote gain. So where did the federal Green vote come from super-imposed upon the provincial riding? The fed Greens generally came in 4th place in polling stations within the northern centre-right portion. OTOH, the fed Greens won some polling stations and came in 2nd place in many polling stations in the southern centre-left portion of the riding.

Certainly a riding to watch in 2017.

3. North Island:

2013 transposed result:

BC NDP: 50.7%
BC Lib: 42.2%
BC Con: 7.1%

Assuming that the Con vote will go BC Lib in 2017 the spread would have been 1.4% even without a BC Green running back then.

North Island is interesting in that a large resource development base is extant in terms of forestry and mining. In addition, it also is continuing to witness an influx of Albertan retirees that extends from northern Nanaimo right up to Campbell River.

The BC NDP has always done well here due to the fact that a larger First Nations vote exists here that always votes heavily NDP. Again, both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat and the BC Libs have come out early nominating Dallas Smith who is the local high profile president of the First Nation Nanwakolas Tribal Council. His reason for running: "growing the economy". As an aside, he is the 3rd First Nation chief nominated by the BC Libs for 2017. I don't ever recall the BC Libs running a First Nations candidate in a previous election.

Again, certainly a riding to watch in 2017.

[DL]

The BC Liberal candidate in North Island in 2009 was heavily hyped Kwakiutl First Nations chief Marion Wright...she didnt even come close and lost quite a bit of ground compared to what the BC Libs got in that riding in 2005 - even though she massively outspent the NDP incumbent.

The danger for the BC Liberals in running candidates who are First Nation is that much of the BC Liberal base outside of Vancouver is composed of extreme rightwing federal Tory/ex-Reform Party types who tend to be racist against First Nations. If the BC Liberal candidate is an "Indian" (sic.) the racists whose votes the BC Liberals depend on may feel uninspired and stay home on election day.

[Lotuslander]

The BC Liberal candidate in North Island in 2009 was heavily hyped Kwakiutl First Nations chief Marion Wright...she didnt even come close and lost quite a bit of ground compared to what the BC Libs got in that riding in 2005 - even though she massively outspent the NDP incumbent.

The danger for the BC Liberals in running candidates who are First Nation is that much of the BC Liberal base outside of Vancouver is composed of extreme rightwing federal Tory/ex-Reform Party types who tend to be racist against First Nations. If the BC Liberal candidate is an "Indian" (sic.) the racists whose votes the BC Liberals depend on may feel uninspired and stay home on election day.

Congrats DL. You have finally posted an analytically intelligent post in this thread. Whether I agree or disagree with same is irrelevant.

Off the bat. Thanks. I forgot that the BC Libs ran FN chief Marion Wright in the same North Island seat back in 2009. Her popular vote share was reduced by 4% from the previous BC Lib incumbent, who lost to the BC NDP's Claire Travena, in 2005. Was her 4% reduction in popular vote share all due to racism?

Perhaps a bit. But doubtful for entire 4%. Remember that the BC Libs introduced the carbon tax back circa July, 2008, which caused an immediate backlash in BC, not only as another perceived "tax" but a tax on gasoline, natural gas heating, etc. on consumers. And strategically the BC NDP ran with same with their "Axe the Gas Tax" campaign all over the media. Even Layton came out to BC to participate in same. One would call same a brilliant right-wing populist anti-tax politics. And it worked well for the BC NDP in the 2009 election.

BTW, back in 2007, at convention, the BC NDP adopted "Sustainable BC", which also incorporated a carbon tax in BC. But politics always supersedes adopted party policy here in BC.

Again, I highly suspect that the BC NDP's "Axe the Gas Tax" campaign resonated quite well in rural BC and suspect that was the main reason that the BC NDP gained popular vote share all through rural BC inclusive of North Island.

BTW,  Mustel, a very high quality "CATI" pollster here in BC released its results on an opinion poll on the carbon tax almost exactly one year ago today. It's findings? Only 50% of BCers support the carbon tax.

More importantly,  the BC NDP has always been pro-resource development in BC. Was the case back in 2009 and was not a material issue in BC. Remember that North Island is also a resource dependent riding.

However, the anti-KM pipeline position by Adrian Dix back in 2013 was a pivotal moment n BC politics esp. with the BC NDP. I will re-iterate that the BC NDP has been hijacked by a hardcore enviro crowd within Van City proper and southern Van Isle. I cannot stress same enough.

The BC NDP is now not only opposed to KM but also LNG projects, nat gas pipelines, natural gas drilling/fracking in NE BC, BC Hydro's Site C dam, several mines, etc., etc. etc. Never, ever would have happened pre-2009 in BC. Imagine if Andrea Horwath held the same positions? Undoubtedly all northern ON NDP MPPs would be toast.

Now let's look at some data corroborating the BC NDP's anti-resource development positions apparently dictated by BC 's SW BC coast enviros. A good example is the Elk Valley in SE BC in the riding of Kootenay East. That area comprises the largest amount of metallurgical coal mines in Canada. BTW, met coal is utilized for steel-making in Asia and SE BC's open-pit mines, run by Teck Resources, are considered the highest quality, low-carbon on the planet.

Back in 2005, the BC NDP did quite well with the unionized USW coal miners in the region winning all polling stations in the Elk Valley. In 2009, it shifted a bit to the BC Libs. In 2013, the BC Libs won all polling stations therein by wide margins. Hell, in the 2015 fed election, the Cons won polling stations thereto by up to 75% popular vote share.

My analysis confirms the foregoing throughout interior BC where mines and other resource development is extant. Frankly, interior BC folks are spooked by the hardcore BC NDP enviro policies and are just voting for their livelihoods here.

Long-time Global BCTV legislative reporter Keith Baldrey also corroborates same:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2991098/the-great-divide-between-resources-and-environment-will-dominate-b-c-election-baldrey/

To further corroborate the foregoing, during the 1990's, the BC NDP held the BC central interior ridings in Prince George, for example. Obviously the BC NDP was pro-resource development back in the day. Today? I follow all 3 BC political parties both in the news and in social media. Riding by riding. I have not yet seen any potential candidate step up to the plate for the BC NDP either in the Prince George ridings, the Cariboo ridings, etc.

OTOH, last night Prince George-Valemount BC Lib MLA and the BC Minister of Jobs, Tourism, Skills Training and Labour held her BC Lib X-mas gathering n her riding:



Yep. The same Shirley Bond that was invited to speak to the unionized BC Building Trades convention earlier this year, not only receiving a standing ovation, but was also invited and attended their national convention. The first time in BCBT history.

Draw your own inferences.

[Lotuslander]

The BC Green Party - the elephant in the room for the 2017 election.

Bit of history. Was formed back in 1983 after the formation of the German Green Party, which was co-founded by Petra Kelly in 1980. BC Greens have always been considered a fringe party led by flaky leaders and never have had much media attention.

Heading into the 2013 election... prior to same they were comatose. Dead website. No press releases. Never ran in by-elections. No party organization. A no-name leader by the name of Jane Sterk who nobody ever heard of. When the 2013 writ was dropped, Sterk seemed to have left her day job for the campaign. Again, really not much media exposure and, even then, Sterk came across as a boring wet noodle, to anyone who was paying attention, bereft of any personality. Again, the BC Greens always came across as some fringe enviro party and still did in 2013.

The BC Greens managed to scrape together candidates in 61/85 ridings just prior to the 2013 election. One BC Green candidate, however, did receive some provincial media attention in 2013 - esp. in the Greater Victoria area - Dr. Andrew Weaver from UVic who ran in the BC Lib held riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head in Greater Victoria. Weaver was somewhat well-known in BC and has a relatively impressive CV.

Interestingly enough, the BC Greens were making headway in the Greater Victoria region during the 2013 writ period and it was certainly not because of BC Green leader Jane Sterk who was basically invisible throughout the campaign. It became apparent that Dr. Andrew Weaver was the galvanizing force in the Greater Victoria area for the BC Greens with local media attention, etc. In political terms, Dr. Weaver was the local "rising tide that lifts all boats" in terms of his local running mates.

One of the main reasons why BC NDP leader Adrian Dix pulled off his "Kinder Morgan Surprise" during the 2013 BC election was to kneecap the BC Greens. And to an extent it worked - suspect that it eventually prevented the BC Greens from winning their 2nd 2013 seat in Saanich North and the Islands (with then a BC Lib incumbent) as the BC NDP picked up the seat by the thinnest of margins due to the large BC NDP vote in the Gulf Islands - the same Gulf Islands that the fed Green obtained between 70% - 80%, on average, in all polling stations during the 2015 fed election.

Moreover, even after the "Kinder Morgan Surprise", apparently the BC NDP was so spooked about the BC Green surge in Greater Victoria (revealed in 2013 post-mortems) that Victoria-Swan Lake BC NDP MLA brought over former BC NDP premier Mike Harcourt, with moderate enviro credentials, and held a press conference to "define" the BC Greens, which received local media attention and also likely stunted the BC Greens surge thereto.

Then the 2013 leaders TV debate came and BC Green leader Sterk, with her first exposure to the BC public, received 5% in terms of "Who Won the Debate" in an internal BC Lib CATI poll, which I posted earlier on herein.

At the end of the day, the BC Greens still did quite well in the Greater Victoria area ridings in terms of popular vote shares v the 2009 BC election (even taking more 2009 BC Lib votes than BC NDP votes overall):

1. Saanich North and the Islands

BC NDP: 33.3% (-10.9%)
BC Lib: 32.8% (-11.9%)
BC Green: 32.1% (+20.8%)

2. Saanich South

BC NDP: 45.6% (-1.5%)
BC Lib: 35.3% (-9.9%)
BC Green: 15.3% (+8.6%)
BC Con: 3.3% (+3.3%)

3. Oak Bay-Gordon Head

BC Green: 40.4% (+31.5%)
BC Lib: 29.3% (-17.4%)
BC NDP: 28.4% (-16%)
BC Con: 1.9% (+1.9%)

4. Victoria-Swan Lake

BC NDP: 54.5% (-6.5%)
BC Green: 23.2% (+10.3%)
BC Lib: 22.3% (-4.7%)

5. Victoria-Beacon Hill

BC NDP: 48.7% (-6.7%)
BC Green: 33.9% (+16.7%)
BC Lib: 17% (-9.2%)

6. Esquimalt-Royal Roads

BC NDP: 48.2% (-4.7%)
BC Lib: 28.6% (-1.6%)
BC Green: 21.7% (+4.9%)

7. Juan De Fuca

BC NDP: 53.4% (-3.9%)
BC Lib: 30.7% (-2.9%)
BC Green: 15.9% (+7.2%)

Overall in the Greater Victoria area, the BC Greens took more 2009 BC Lib votes than 2009 BC NDP votes.

Moreover, the Great Victoria area is also the most volatile political area in BC in terms of federal, provincial, and municipal elections. To wit:

1. Most would not have predicted that the federal riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands would have been won by the federal Greens in the 2011 fed election;
2. Most would not have predicted that the BC Greens would have won the provincial riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head in 2013, almost winning SNI, and major uptick in other Greater Victoria ridings;
3. Most would not have predicted that the municipal Green mayoral candidates would have won, over the incumbents, in both Victoria and Saanich in November, 2014;

Ergo, Greater Victoria is also an area to watch during the 2017 BC election.

As for the BC Greens, during the 2013 BC election, they obtained 8.1% popular vote share - basically the same as the 2 previous elections but with less candidates. In fact, the BC Greens ran 24 less candidates in 2013 than they did in 2009. One would think that the 2009 BC Green vote would have gone BC NDP in 2013? Wrong. In fact, the BC NDP even lost popular vote share in 18/24 of those ridings in 2013. Here are the tabulated results:

http://public.tableau.com/profile/cskelton#!/vizhome/GreenPartySplit/Dashboard1

[Copy link and place into browser]

Again, the BC Greens obtain votes from both the BC Libs, BC NDP, and apparently former non-voters.

Now heading into the 2017 BC election. The BC Greens have morphed from a fringe enviro party with an invisible leader into a relatively credible political party with a visible/viable leader. Seriously. Incumbent BC Green MLA Dr. Andrew Weaver was elected as the new BC Green Party leader in 2015. Since then, I have read/heard both moderate BC Libs and BC New Democrats describe Weaver as "bright", "hard-working", "down-to-earth", "authentic", "likable", "media savvy", "one's favourite uncle", etc.

BC Green leader Weaver is consistently in both the provincial and local media (TV, radio, print). Even just today. Seems that Weaver is moving the perception/impression of the BC Greens as just an enviro party but broadening same:

1. Economy - high tech sector, etc.
2. Energy - wind/solar;
3. Housing;
4. MSP (medical) premiums;
5. Education;
etc.

Seems that Weaver is positioning the BC Greens akin to a greenish, centrist "red" federal Liberal type party. In fact, in a few ridings, I postulate that the BC Greens have nominated candidates that are both higher profile/calibre than either the BC Libs/BC NDP to date. Moreover, the BC Greens have "red-lit" 2 candidates, to date, that are a media personality and a municipal politician respectively. One would think that beggar's can't be choosers but obviously not the case here.

Moreover, Weaver has his press secretary, the BC Greens have a director of communications, and they have a solid campaign manager in place. Many federal "red" Liberals have already joined his campaign.

BTW, long-time BC Province political newspaper columnist Mike Smyth thinks "Weaver will win 2017 leader's debate". Long-time Vancouver Sun political columnist has referenced same albeit "a 1991 Gordon Wilson moment is highly doubtful". Remember that most voters don't pay attention to the 4-week campaign until ~half-way through when the leaders debate is held. If Weaver does "win" the 2017 leader's debate would obviously result in big 'mo", volunteers, media attention, etc. Still all speculation and conjecture at this stage though.

Will say this again... the BC Greens will be the elephant in the room in the 2017 election and don't be surprised if they receive 15%+ (or who knows) of the popular vote share taking from both "soft" 2013 BC Lib and BC NDP voters.

[adma]

The BC Green Party - the elephant in the room for the 2017 election.

Bit of history. Was formed back in 1983 after the formation of the German Green Party, which was co-founded by Petra Kelly in 1980. BC Greens have always been considered a fringe party led by flaky leaders and never have had much media attention.

In your fast-forward to 2013 you seem to have forgotten 2001, when under Adrienne Carr they got a *lot* of media attention through seeming poised to pick up the BCNDP spoils and threaten them for 2nd place--they fell short, but their 12% share that year remains their highest to date...

[DL]

I'm not so sure Weaver will "fly" with voters. The former Green leader Jane Sterk was a kind of lovable old raging Granny Clampett type who was a classic "earth mother" and appealed to granola bars and treehuggers. In contrast Andrew Weaver comes across as a stuffy, condescending upper class twit with posh British accent and an inability to pronounce the letter "r". as in "I should like a gwass of cwawet with my dinnah tonight"...people thinking of voting Green will likely drop him like a hot potato the moment they see him in action.

[Lotuslander]

In your fast-forward to 2013 you seem to have forgotten 2001, when under Adrienne Carr they got a *lot* of media attention through seeming poised to pick up the BCNDP spoils and threaten them for 2nd place--they fell short, but their 12% share that year remains their highest to date...

Even in 2001, the BC Greens didn't receive that much media attention. It was a campaign whereby the media focused upon the BC Lib's Campbell and BC NDP's Dosanjh. Remember that one quite well.

Then BC Green leader Adrianne Carr was basically a twin of Elizabeth May and the then BC Greens were a party of/for granola bar eaters. As for the "spoils"? Not much there when ya have a 77 BC Lib - 2 BC NDP rout.

As an aside, just look at the southern German state of Baden-Württemberg - the second most "conservative" German state after Bavaria. In the 2016 Ba-Wu state election, the Greens came in first place, in terms of popular vote share, with the most seats. Ba-Wu also has the most popular German state premier in Green Party leader Winfried Kretschmann leading a green-black coalition gov't. Who would have thunk?

I'm not so sure Weaver will "fly" with voters. ... Andrew Weaver comes across as a stuffy, condescending upper class twit with posh British accent and an inability to pronounce the letter "r". as in "I should like a gwass of cwawet with my dinnah tonight"...people thinking of voting Green will likely drop him like a hot potato the moment they see him in action.

I suspect that most will disagree with ya:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25x_sSvZUIo

[adma]

In your fast-forward to 2013 you seem to have forgotten 2001, when under Adrienne Carr they got a *lot* of media attention through seeming poised to pick up the BCNDP spoils and threaten them for 2nd place--they fell short, but their 12% share that year remains their highest to date...

Even in 2001, the BC Greens didn't receive that much media attention. It was a campaign whereby the media focused upon the BC Lib's Campbell and BC NDP's Dosanjh. Remember that one quite well.

Then BC Green leader Adrianne Carr was basically a twin of Elizabeth May and the then BC Greens were a party of/for granola bar eaters. As for the "spoils"? Not much there when ya have a 77 BC Lib - 2 BC NDP rout.

If you "remember that one quite well", you don't remember the election *I* remember.  And what I remember is that the NDP fell into such disgrace and ignominy, the hitherto *truly* marginal GP (just under 2% of the provincial vote in 1996!) rose as an alternative disgruntled-left option to the point where they were virtually equalling the NDP in opinion polling.  And *that* got the media focussed upon the Carr wild card/spoiler element almost as much as the decreed "primary" Campbell/Dosanjh race--certainly an advance contradiction of your claim of its being "a fringe party led by flaky leaders [which] never [had] had much media attention."  True, the NDP (surely boosted by incumbents' dead cat bounces) reassumed its traditional 2nd place position by e-day; but even w/a deflated vote relative to earlier polling, the Carr Greens still jumped from 2% to 12.4%.  Those were provincial-level figures unprecedented for *any* Green entity in Canada.  *And*, you can blame "media attention" in part for this--that's what you get when an unforeseen outside force ("flaky" or not) threatens to upset the binary status quo.

Though of course to you, it "conveniently" doesn't matter because it was a 77 Lib-2 NDP election in the end, with the Greens shut out.  Well, just more confirmation of my judgment that when it comes to the poll-by-poll sensuality of psephology and the subtler tales that elections tell, you're a lousy lay--and honestly, even if the judgment *is* well founded through their political limitations, the way you try to drive in the point re May/Carr/Sterk still has an undercurrent of flaky-broad-bashing misogyny about it.  (Of course, Andrew Weaver's male, and for you that changes everything, I guess.  Premier Clark notwithstanding.)

[Lotuslander]

If you "remember that one quite well", you don't remember the election *I* remember.  And what I remember is that the NDP fell into such disgrace and ignominy, the hitherto *truly* marginal GP (just under 2% of the provincial vote in 1996!) rose as an alternative disgruntled-left option to the point where they were virtually equalling the NDP in opinion polling.

FWIW, off the bat, I actually wrote a paper on the BC 2001 BC election, after the fact, in a 100-level elective poli-sci course back in my UBC days.

Firstly, ya state that the BC NDP "were virtually equalling the NDP in opinion polling". Completely incorrect. Only 2 pollsters were extant in BC at that time - Mustel and Ipsos-Reid, which were both "CATI" pollsters.

Just went over to the internet archive and looked at Mustel's BC polling numbers throughout 2000 and 2001. The BC Greens NEVER were close to the BC NDP in opinion polling figures. AT ALL! BC Greens were always wayyyy behind the BC NDP - even in their dismal state. What are you smokin'?

Now the "greenest" seat in BC is Nelson-Creston. Bar none. No doubt about that. So I went over to the Election Prediction Project website for the 2001 BC election and reviewed the comments therein for the riding. Low and behold Bernard von Schulmann made a post therein - the same BvS who I referred to in an earlier post herein who is a self-described "centrist environmentalist" and former BC Green Party member.

His take on the "green" riding of Nelson-Creston on April 21, 2001?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah. That's right. A 3rd place prediction for the BC Greens. And he was pretty well "bang-on" with his prediction compared to the actual result... BC Lib: 39%/BC NDP: 32%/BC Green: 22%!

BTW, back in 2001 (and only in 2001) the BC Greens had a very unique campaign lawn sign. Describe it. I know.... ya can't. Because you obviously have no insight into the 2001 BC election. Period.  

... the way you try to drive in the point re May/Carr/Sterk still has an undercurrent of flaky-broad-bashing misogyny about it.  (Of course, Andrew Weaver's male, and for you that changes everything, I guess.  Premier Clark notwithstanding.)

Haha. That comment is soooooooo far out in left field I don't even know how to respond to same. OK. I will. If either my mom... or my Svenska wife... or her best buds.... or my li'l sis... or her best buds... would read your statement... they would undoubtedly and categorically describe ya as a complete and utter flake. It is what it is.

[Lotuslander]

And the latest news involving the ongoing soap opera in the fringe BC Conservative Party:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/news/article_06339450-c73c-11e6-a599-7fca37014510.html#pq=R6VmHs