2017 British Columbia election

[Cynthia]

I was pretty surprised four years ago when Libs won another government. With a less flawed candidate Horgan and the education crisis this should put Neoliberal government to an end?

[lilTommy]

I was pretty surprised four years ago when Libs won another government. With a less flawed candidate Horgan and the education crisis this should put Neoliberal government to an end?

You would think
The BCNDP is taking a different approach from last election; a more social democratic, solidly progressive plan and Horgan is considered more likable and with zero tarnished rep compared to Dix. About the same number of MLAs on both sides are not running again. This time around there are deeper problems with Education, Transit, Housing and Resources/Energy and government spending/party funding.

Polling this year (normal polling cautions) is mixed; NDP led two and Liberals led two. Polling will be even less reliable then before, here are two polls a month apart:
August:
BCLiberal - 38%
BCNDP - 29%
BCGreen - 16%
BCConservative - 15%

September:
BCNDP - 38%
BCLiberal - 33%
BCGreen - 16%
BCConservative - 14%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/41st_British_Columbia_general_election

[Cape Verde]

Unless NDP leads the polls by more than 15%, I will expect a Liberal victory.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Unless NDP leads the polls by more than 15%, I will expect a Liberal victory.

I proudly voted for John Horgan when I lived in his district. He is a much better leader for the NDP this time around. 2013 was a huge shocker to me. Hopefully polls are more accurate 2017.

[lilTommy]

The BCNDP has proven it can win Liberal ridings, but at By-elections. Thye've had a very hard time retaining those come election time which they need to do.
The BCNDP campaign is already much better from the planning, communicating and policy perspective, so that should help.
The one thing we know is that the Green and Conservative vote is always over-represented in the pre-election polling. They both will drop by realistically half those numbers (Greens have polled 8% in the last two elections) Where the Green vote goes, is usually a good indicator of who will win.

The NDP can win with 40% (1991), the NDP has won the election but lost the popular vote (1996). The liberals have won the last three (2005, 09, 13) with 44-45% and the NDP from 39-42%; the Popular vote Province wide will be close. For the NDP(Liberals too) it will be a game of strategy and targeting about a 15 seats with laser focus in order to win. (they really on need 10)

[Harry Hayfield]

Have there been any calculations produced of the 2013 election on the new boundaries?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

New Insights West Poll November 21

BC NDP 40% (-)
BC Liberals 39% (+5)
Green 14% (-)
Conservatives 5% (-5)
Other 2% (-)

Link:http://www.insightswest.com/news/housing-still-top-of-mind-as-british-columbians-ponder-political-choices/

[Lotuslander]

Before I get into the 2017 BC election, it's worthwhile noting the terrible polling during both the pre-writ and writ period in the 2013 BC election.

Off the bat, Mustel had been considered the pre-eminent pollster in BC for ~ 25 years and has always nailed BC election results. Why? It's a "CATI" pollster - live telephone interview (landline/cell). Unfortunately, Mustel bowed out of the BC political polling scene in 2012 and has remained absent ever since.

So that left the 2013 polling scene dominated by only opt-in online pollsters as well as IVR (robo) pollsters. I have always considered these methodologies just cheap polling junk freebies here in BC.

And how did they do? At the beginning of the campaign, they showed a ~20% BC NDP lead. Opt-in online pollsters Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid had a 8%/9% BC NDP lead in their final respective polls before e-day 2013. And Insights West, in an earlier poll, also corroborated AR/IR results in the same time frame.

IVR pollster Ekos had a 6% BC NDP lead in their final poll and Forum had a 2% lead (best of a bad lot).

That's what fooled everyone during the 2013 BC election campaign sans CATI pollster Mustel.

What's even more interesting are the BC Libs internal 2013 polling numbers during the 4-week writ period. The BC Libs internal pollster utilized CATI polling (again, live telephone interview - landline/cell) for their provincial tracking polls and landline for their 25 targeted riding tracking polls. They also utilized Mandarin, Cantonese, Punjabi, Tagalog, etc. live telephone interviewers to boot. Very expensive stuff but has historically also proven to be quite accurate.

So at the commencement of the 4-week writ period, the BC Lib's internals showed that they were behind by ~7% with a large undecided factor. Within days, Christy Clark's approval numbers exceeded her disapproval numbers and that upward trend continued throughout the campaign. OTOH, then BC NDP leader Dix saw his approval ratings drop with his disapproval ratings increase and that trend continued throughout the 2013 campaign.

Then we get to the 2013 leader's debate and the subsequent "Who won the debate?" polling numbers. The BC Lib's internals had the following:

Clark: 38%
Dix: 21%
Sterk (Green): 6%
Cummins (Dix): 3%

Interesting to contrast the same night's internal BC Lib poll numbers to those of opt-in online pollster Ipsos Reid - a completely different story:

Dix: 35%
Clark: 30%
Sterk: 10%
Cummins: 3%

By Friday, 4-days before Tuesday e-day, 2013, the BC Libs had already projected 48 ridings won - they actually won 49. And their final Sunday night provincial tracking numbers:

BC Lib: 43.6%
BC NDP: 37.8%
BC Greens: 8%
BC Cons: 4.7%
Ind./Other: 5.9%

[Source: BC internal pollster on internal polling numbers (with charts) at Manning Centre symposium on YouTube]

Pretty well bang-on. And that's the value of very expensive/accurate CATI polling.

Since 2012, and prior to the 2013 BC election, no publicly released CATI poll of BC politics has been released except for a rare one about 3 months ago - the Innovative Research poll (CATI - landline/cell) with these results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 29%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 15%
Other: 2%

Also interesting to note that the BC Libs internal pollster had a similar 15% BC Con vote in their internal numbers at the start of the 2013 writ period. What he later found was that 5% had brand confusion federally, another 5% parked with the BC Cons as they were pissed at BC Libs until they realized their vote may result in NDP gov't, while the remaining 5% actually were Con voters.

In any event, i suspect that the 2017 BC campaign will again be dominated by the usual opt-in online panel pollsters (Insights West/Ipsos Reid) and the IVR (robo) pollsters (Mainstreet, Forum, Ekos, etc.).

Funnily enough, when the Mainstreet poll came out a few weeks ago showing the BC NDP leading by ~5%, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer, Province political columnist Mike Smyth, and Global TV political affairs Keith Baldrey all reported that they were told by BC Lib strategists/insiders that they were "happy" with those results showing the BC NDP in the lead and looked forward to more of same.

Irrespective of the BC Libs own current internal polling showing different numbers, I suspect that they want the public to see a BC NDP lead in order to avoid complacency. Interesting.

[Lotuslander]

Now to the lead-up to the May, 2017 election and the respective parties:

BC Libs:

- BC currently has the highest growth rate in Canada;
- BC also has the lowest unemployment rate in Canada as well as the highest job growth over the previous 12-month period;
- just came out last week that BC's budget surplus will be $2.24 billion for the current fiscal year (does any other province in Canada even have a surplus?)
- also the 2nd/3rd lowest overall taxation rate in Canada;

Those are very tough nuts to crack for any opposition party and the BC Libs will run on those narratives. Additionally, the BC Libs will be positioning the BC NDP as "Dr. No" in terms of opposing resource development projects and the blue collar worker.

They have nominated some very high profile candidates and are near 70/87 riding nomination completions. And the media is also reporting that they have an "army of volunteers" and have been holding field organizing schools all over BC. Akin to a military machine.

Finally, as Keith Baldrey reported, while outside the writ period the BC Libs do not conduct province-wide polling... they do conduct riding tracking polls of currently held seats and potential pick-up seats. According to Baldrey, the BC Libs "have a healthy lead" in most of their current seats.

BC Cons:

In 2013, they had a high profile and a somewhat credible leader in John Cummins who was also at the 2013 leader's debate. After the 2013 BC election, they elected a no-name called Dan Brooks who later stepped down earlier this year due to internal party lawsuits. He then decided to run as leader again and narrowly won the September, 2016 BC Con leadership convention. A few weeks later the BC Con board of directors disqualified him. Bizarre. The BC Cons now have fringe party status, no leader, have continued internal in-fighting/lawsuits and are broke. I even doubt that they will be running candidates in 2017.

BC NDP:

- Keith Baldrey has reported that the BC NDP's membership is at an all-time low and that the party itself is running a deficit every month in order to keep operations going. Party donations are also dwindling.

- BC NDP leader John Horgan seems to be invisible in the media and is deliberately eschewing the BC media. Very strange strategy. He sets himself up to be "defined" by the BC Libs before he is able to define himself - straight out of the handbook from former MB NDP strategist Michael Balagus.

- Horgan has also publicly stated that education will be his number one issue during the campaign. Problem is that over the years, and even last week, education has only been a "Top of Mind" issue for 4% - 5% of the electorate.

- The BC NDP also looks to have it's most left-wing platform in 2017 since pre-1972 with massive annual program spending increases... eg. a $1.5 - $2 billion/annum $10 day child care.

- In terms of candidate nominations they are also very far behind, not only the Liberals, compared to the pre-2013 election. Also have noticed that turnout at BC NDP nomination contests has also plummeted in many ridings compared to 2013. To wit, a contested nomination meeting saw 80 turnout last week compared to 192 in the same riding back in November, 2012.

BTW, back in 2013, the BC Libs used an effective "weather-vane" TV ad against then BC NDP leader in terms of his flip-flop against the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning - cost the BC NDP popular vote share seats in interior BC and Metro Vancouver. Even the BC NDP's internal prognosis of what went wrong with their 2013 campaign pointed to the "Kinder Morgan" flip-flop.

Lo and behold, the BC Libs have released another TV election ad yesterday on the exact same theme - this time regarding BC NDP leader Horgan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHPi2wFlUDs

BC Greens:

- Back in 2013, the BC Greens were a fringe party led by the lacklustre Jane Sterk - no media exposure at all.

- Complete change for this election cycle. Incumbent BC Green MLA/leader Andrew Weaver is apparently highly regarded and receives considerable media exposure - esp. on Van Isle with CHEK-TV, C-FAX radio, and the Victoria Times Colonist;

- Weaver is positioning the BC Greens as both federal "red" Liberals and "consistent" in their policies.

- Even more startling is that the BC Greens are recruiting much higher profile candidates this time than even the BC NDP in the same ridings. Have never seen that before.

- Media pundits also have suggested that Weaver will "likely win" the 2017 BC election leader's debate. If that happens, could potentially result in more media exposure and momentum for the BC Greens.

2017 Election Outcome:

With redistribution, another 2 seats have been added to the BC legislature - Richmond-Queensborough and Surrey South. Both are suburban Metro Vancouver ridings and, with 2013 transposed results, would be considered "safe" BC Lib seats. Based upon transposed results, not much change to the rest of the BC ridings in terms of outcomes.

And with the BC Cons essentially on life-support or even dead, I doubt that they will be running any candidates in 2017. We'll see. In any event, three ridings (Skeena, Burnaby-Lougheed, Stikine) won by the BC NDP in 2013 would have likely flipped to the BC Libs without the BC Con candidates pulling vote share. Data suggests that where BC Con candidates ran in 2009 but not in 2013.. the 2009 BC Con vote went almost entirely BC Lib in 2013.

So right there... it appears that the BC Libs are already up by 5 seats heading into the 2017 campaign.

And based upon current data, riding demographics, candidates, likely political narratives, party leaders, etc., etc. my guess right now on the outcome of the 2017 BC election:

BC Lib: 55 - 65 seats;
BC NDP: 20 - 25 seats;
BC Greens: 1 - 5 seats;

Of course, the foregoing is subject to change as we head into May, 2017.

My analytical 2 cents.

[MaxQue]

(does any other province in Canada even have a surplus?)

Quebec has a surplus (and tons of cancelled trials due to a shortage of judges and attorneys and an healthcare system in shambles, because government cut very deep to get that surplus).

[adma]

I doubt the BC Cons will be nominating *no* candidates at all--at worst, as in the past, they'll have a few to keep the party affiliation ticking until whatever time.  (Maybe they'll be like Socred in 1996.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh good, Lotuslander is back. Didn't read his posts; Let me guess, he is predicting an 85-2 Liberal landslide?

[DL]

It should be noted that last year "Lotuslander" posted an endless posting about why there was absolutely no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP could win the byelection in Coquitlam Burke Mountain. The NDP won the byelection. He also went on ad nauseous in the last federal election about how the NDP was doomed DOOMED to be reduced to just six seats in BC. They won 14 seats even as they did worse than expected in the country as a whole.

Caveat emptor

[adma]

*And* when he was proven wrong, Lotuslander gave the Trump-ian "the other side cheated" alibi.

[Lotuslander]

Wow. Tough crowd here. Full of factually incorrect statements as well as ad hominems to boot. If ya wanna refute my analysis with data/evidence/facts... then do so.

I guess I will give the last word to long-time Global BCTV political analyst Keith Baldrey:

[quote]The recent week-long summer sitting of the legislature was another reminder that the biggest challenge the B.C. Liberals are facing in their re-election bid may be complacency.

The biggest threat to the party’s hold on government is that those voters simply stay home next spring, thinking the election outcome is in the bag.

Certainly, even NDP MLAs let slip a couple of times during that week-long session about how the B.C. Liberals were going to address a public policy after the spring election – prophesies based on an assumed B.C. Liberal victory.

Adding to the government side’s optimism is the fact that the B.C. Liberal party is awash in tons of cash, while the NDP faces ongoing and very serious financial challenges.

Unlike in 2013, when an apparent looming NDP victory convinced the business community to fork over some major dough to the party, nothing remotely like that is happening this time around. The party is having serious fundraising troubles (it apparently runs a significant operating deficit each month) and party membership is very low. As for the B.C. Liberals, meanwhile, the party’s own internal tracking polls apparently show it enjoys healthy leads in pretty well every riding it currently holds (the party doesn’t do province-wide polling; just the seats that are deemed winnable).

The B.C. Liberal party seems to be in perpetual motion: nominating candidates at a steady pace and raising money at an even quicker pace.

The party employs a number of full-time field organizers, who have been working those potentially “winnable” ridings almost since the last campaign finished.

Throw in the fact that the provincial economy is humming along, plus the historical fact that the so-called “free enterprise coalition” has never lost an election in more than 40 years unless that coalition splits the vote, and a picture of near-invincibility starts to emerge.

http://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/opinion-watch-out-for-complacency-1.2320354#sthash.VxiDW8E7.4ycIo7Eu.dpuf

[136or142]

It should be noted that last year "Lotuslander" posted an endless posting about why there was absolutely no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP could win the byelection in Coquitlam Burke Mountain. The NDP won the byelection. He also went on ad nauseous in the last federal election about how the NDP was doomed DOOMED to be reduced to just six seats in BC. They won 14 seats even as they did worse than expected in the country as a whole.

Caveat emptor

And he didn't pay off his bet after losing to me.

[Lotuslander]

Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

In any event, why is this thread attracting so many flakes? Either nothing relevant to add or no understanding of BC politics and if there is any... it's at a kindergarten level.

Just look at Tender Branson over at the Austria thread, for example. Always brilliant analysis. Nothing flaky about him irrespective of his political leanings.

Now for some more corroborative analysis of the current BC political scene by a fella by the name of Bernard von Schulmann (respected and well known in political circles) who has been involved in the BC political scene for over 2 decades. A self-described "centrist environmentalist" who has been involved with the BC NDP, BC Libs, and then the BC Greens until recently.

A good"on the ground" analysis of all 4 BC political parties. Worth the listen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtVl0mDfn1w

[adma]

Ah, Lotuslander: the Mansplainer-in-Chief of BC political psephology.

[Lotuslander]

Ah, Lotuslander: the Mansplainer-in-Chief of BC political psephology.

Hey... completely overwhelmed by your political prognostication and incessant political analysis. BTW, BC NDP has a chief strategist spot available now on Craigslist. Interested?

[Lotuslander]

As a sidebar, for the first time in its history, the unionized BC Buildings Trades invited Shirley Bond, BC Lib Minister of Jobs, Tourism, and Skills Training and Minister Responsible for Labour to its annual convention earlier this year. Widely reported in the BC media and she received a standing ovation. Again. Unheard of. Moreover, the unionized BC Building Trades also invited Bond to speak at the national convention of the unionized building trades.

Moreover, the United Steelworkers (unaffiliated with the BCBT) also has apparent internal dissent with the BC NDP. A leaked internal memo analyzing same as follows:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/308880372/Steelworker-Memo

Very revealing internal matters.

So why is the foregoing happening? The BC NDP, from their perspective, has thrown the unionized blue collar worker under the bus - esp. the BC interior with its resource industries.  Essentially the BC NDP has been hijacked by hard-core enviro elements within Van City proper and on Van Isle. Furthemore, the BC NDP/BC NDP MLAs are spooked by the Weaver led Green Party in terms of the 2017 election.

Unfortunately, no road to a win (on a seat basis) under those circumstances.

PS. See that alot of ON folk post in this thread. Imagine if the ON NDP was led by hard-core T.O. enviros that would reject the proposed mining development of the northern ON "Ring of Fire"? What do you imagine the outcome of those currently ON NDP held seats in the next ON election would be? Get my drift?

PPS. At the end of the political day... with folk worried about their livelihoods, the narrative always reverts to "It's the economy, stupid".

[lilTommy]

Union support is layered for the NDP and not guaranteed in BC, anywhere for that matter.  Just look at the last federal, some unions were strategic (vote to replace Harper) others were pro-NDP.
BC Building Trades and the Steelworkers are dominated by construction jobs, they are being lured in by Kinder Morgan and Site C. with the NDP taking an opposition to those proposals that is going to cause friction. But to say this is throwing the blue-collar workers under the bus is not true since you totally discount the fact the the NDP is planning a massive investment in infrastructure that they estimate could create 43K jobs.

The BC Federation of Labour is actively and aggressively going to campaign for the NDP:
http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/12/01/BC-Fed-Campaign-to-Elect-NDP/

Horgan is trying to balance big ideas that benefit workers like raising the minimum wage (which Seattle's experience is showing is a true success) and public childcare with job creation and more bread and butter affordability issues
http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/11/30/Horgan-Appeals-To-Workers/

I can't really comment on the NDP being taken over by enviro's but the BC greens are a serious threat, and that relates to my comment above about the balance. BUT I don't think that someone like Craig Keating could be described as a hard-core enviro? he seems rather the moderate type.

In ON last election, the party's lack of big ideas, bolder plans, bolder progressive ideas (it was more populist progressive then truely social democratic) cost the party 3 seats in Toronto. The balance was not there last election so while the party won 3 seats outside of TO they lost 3 in the city... and potential other urban areas.

[136or142]

Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?

[adma]

Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?

Because you remind him of his figurative ex-wife who bankrupted him on (to him) frivolous "abuse" charges.  And if the system wasn't "rigged" on her behalf, he surely would have prevailed, as surely as the non-vote-split Free Enterprise Coalition prevails in BC.  Get the picture?

(Hey, I wouldn't say that if he weren't so prone to using that "mansplaining" tone)

[Lotuslander]

Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?

Sorry. You are nothing but a lying flake. Period. As a matter of fact an NDP troll. Nothing analytical to provide in this thread. How come?

[Lotuslander]

Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?

Because you remind him of his figurative ex-wife who bankrupted him on (to him) frivolous "abuse" charges.  And if the system wasn't "rigged" on her behalf, he surely would have prevailed, as surely as the non-vote-split Free Enterprise Coalition prevails in BC.  Get the picture?

(Hey, I wouldn't say that if he weren't so prone to using that "mansplaining" tone)

And we also have "adma" who is nothing more than another NDP troll.. this time from Ontario... 3 time zones away. Again... providing nothing analytically useful to this thread. Don't understand why both you and "Adam T" are not both banned for violating/breaking clear forum policy/rules.

BTW, "Dumb and Dumber" has always been my fave flick.