2017 British Columbia election

[adma]

Now the "greenest" seat in BC is Nelson-Creston. Bar none. No doubt about that. So I went over to the Election Prediction Project website for the 2001 BC election and reviewed the comments therein for the riding. Low and behold Bernard von Schulmann made a post therein - the same BvS who I referred to in an earlier post herein who is a self-described "centrist environmentalist" and former BC Green Party member.

His take on the "green" riding of Nelson-Creston on April 21, 2001?

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Yeah. That's right. A 3rd place prediction for the BC Greens. And he was pretty well "bang-on" with his prediction compared to the actual result... BC Lib: 39%/BC NDP: 32%/BC Green: 22%!

Of course, you should consider that the "Corky Evans populism" element skewed things on behalf of the NDP in that N-C race, whatever the "inherent" Green strength.  And, 22% was still pretty good under the circumstance.  Plus, whatever the 2001 circumstance, as we all know, the Green-strength (if not *winning* strength, then at least *polling* strength) centre of gravity's subsequently shifted to May/Weaver territory--or just generally, away from the N-C "granola belt" to places where the NDP's already weak and they could serve as a safe Red Tory/Green Liberal option proxy--more "Weaver-esque" than "Carr/May/Sterk-esque", if you will.  (Think Whistler as opposed to Nelson.)

[Lotuslander]

Sigh. I should have previously been much more clearer.

Again. Back pre-2001 and during the 4-week 2011 election writ period, both Mustel and Ipsos-Reid were the only BC pollsters. And both were "CATI" pollsters.

During the 2001 writ period, both had the BC Libs, at various times up to between 65% and 72% in terms of voting intention. It was an unstoppable political juggernaut that portended a political slaughter in the making. The then granola-bar eating BC Greens were an irrelevant political side-show. If any. And still considered "fringe" back then.

Again. Final result: 77 BC Libs/2 BC NDP. And the BC NDP was lucky to hold on to those 2 seats by 2.1% and 11.4% margins respectively.

Back then, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer wrote, just before 2001 e-day, that a then unnamed BC NDP cabinet minister confided to him as follows:

"It feels akin to the fall of Saigon, back in 1975, when the NVA/Viet Kong were on the outskirts of Saigon and we are now awaiting helicopter evac from the rooftop of the U.S. embassy."

Since the BC Libs back then were up to 65% - 72% voting intention at various points in time (actually received 58%) nothing else mattered in that unique political dynamic.

Fast forward to 2017. Unlike "your mother's" Green party (pre-2017), the 2017 BC Green Party is a completely different political animal moving from fringe status to credible in terms of daily MSM coverage/quality of candidates, etc. Quite obvious if one is "on the ground" in BC. Weaver is positioning the BC Greens as a greenish, centrist "red" federal Liberal Party. Unlike pre-2017, those that don't take the Weaver-led BC Greens seriously/under-estimates them (both BC Libs and BC NDP) will undoubtedly be in for a surprise.

And I will leave the last word on the matter to BC NDP leader John Horgan in an interview with Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer: "The BC Greens will likely mow our lawn in 2017". Interpret that metaphor as ya wish.

PS. BC NDP leader John Horgan held an interview with the Globe & Mail a few days ago. Honestly, does this snippet therein "inspire confidence" in anyone?

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[warandwar]

I think you made up that quote about mowing the lawn...

[Lotuslander]

I think you made up that quote about mowing the lawn...

Haha. I was previously paraphrasing from memory... But (after much Googling) here's the actual BC NDP leader John Horgan quote from Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer's column of January 27, 2015:

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Yes. A quibble. But what's the diff?!

[adma]

Sigh. I should have previously been much more clearer.

Again. Back pre-2001 and during the 4-week 2011 election writ period, both Mustel and Ipsos-Reid were the only BC pollsters. And both were "CATI" pollsters.

But you're applying post-facto inside-baseball 2016 judgment there.  If we go back to 2001-in-real-time, ***it did not matter whether they were "CATI" pollsters or not.  Misleading or not, obsolete-by-today's-standards or not, their numbers made an impression and defined the narrative.***  

Its like some daffy, asinine suggestion that because we all now know that the pre-Soundscan Billboard charts were "fixed", they're totally irrelevant in judging the pre-1990 pop/rock musical context.

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That's like saying that for the Vancouver-to-Kamloops traveller, once the Coquihalla was built, the old Trans-Canada route via the Fraser River Canyon and Cache Creek "no longer mattered"--out of sight, out of mind except to a "fringe element" of dumb Griswoldian tourists and hair-shirt afficionados of creative highway anachronism.  (Never mind that the Coquihalla is as boring as xxx.  But to you, the *old* way might be boring as xxx; well, it's not my fault that you're an uninspired jerk.)

  Thus your desire to put your thumb on the 2001 BC Lib-landslide scale while totally dismissing the fact that the losers, and the scale of loss, and the schisms that underlay said loss were *at least* as important an element of the media coverage...and, "fringe" or not, the rise of the Greens at the apparent expense of the NDP was an important element in all of that.  It *didn't matter* whether the Greens were poised to win seats or not--even if they won no seats, even if the NDP only won two, they're an important element.  (And even if the Greens *were* fringe, at moments of political despair and/or impasse never dismiss the "reach" that fringe elements might have among voters--something that should be especially clear in these days of Trump and Ford and UKIP.)

No different from Chretien sweeping Ontario federally in 1993/97/2000.  To you, all that matters are the winners; to me, it's was just as fun to dissect how things shook out among the losers, i.e. the sexy "bigger picture"...

[136or142]

Vaughn Palmer mentioned in an article some time back that for a number of reasons John Horgan was disappointed with the slate of candidates the NDP ran in 2013.  After I had a brief back and forth with him, the one thing I agreed with him on with that was that the NDP were nowhere near as successful as the B.C Liberals in recruiting municipal politicians to the slate, as only nine of the NDP's 47 defeated candidates held municipal office (The NDP lost 51 ridings in 2013, but four were MLAs who were defeated.)

It may be a bit early to say for certain, but it seems the NDP is making an effort this time to recruit mayors, city/town councillors, school trustees, regional district directors and native band chiefs and councillors.

In the six ridings where NDP MLAs are retiring, three of the four new candidates hold or held elected office.

1.Burnaby-Deer Lake, Anne Kang, Burnaby City Councillor
2.Burnaby-Lougheed, Katrina Chen, School Trustee
3.Columbia River-Revelstoke, Gerry Taft, Mayor of the District of Invermere

16 New Democratic candidates have been nominated in non NDP ridings so far. Those who hold or held municipal office are:
1.Kamloops-South Thompson, Nancy Bepple, Kamloops City Councillor 2008-2014
2.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare, School Trustee
3.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed, Penticton City Councillor
4.Kootenay East, Randal MacNair, Fernie City Councillor and former Fernie Mayor
5.Abbotsford West, Preet Rai, School Trustee
6.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Rick Glumac, Port Moody City Councillor
7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Parksville City Councillor

One other nominated candidate, Jagrup Brar was an NDP MLA from 2004-2013, while former M.P (2011-2015) Jinny Sims has been nominated in Surrey-Panorama.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/41st_British_Columbia_general_election#Candidates

Also, for those who might have been concerned that the NDP would lose its connections to the high tech sector when Matt Toner bolted from the NDP to the Green Party, three of the candidates nominated so far hold management positions in the high tech sector or own high tech related businesses:

1.Morgane Oger, Vancouver-False Creek
2.Tarik Sayeed, Penticton
3.Rick Glumac, Port Moody-Coquitlam

A fourth New Democrat, Bowinn Ma, in North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a professional engineer.

Also, Gerry Taft is a gelato shop owner while Randal MacNair owns a small publishing firm. Who will represent white working class British Columbians?

More seriously though, this election to me is resembling more and more what happened in 1972.  The NDP thought it would win the 1969 election with the urbane lawyer Tom Berger as leader, but, sort of just like in 2013, he 'frightened' British Columbians with the idea of an NDP government (The NDP's slogan in that election was 'ready to govern.')  

After the defeat in 1969, most pundits thought Social Credit was a lock to be reelected in 1972 and then new leader Dave Barrett played into that by saying (this wasn't the NDP's slogan) "we just want to reduce the number of Social Credit MLAs"  Barrett later joked that to fellow New Democrats he would complete his sentence by adding "to zero."

I don't know if John Horgan will play up the NDP's underdog status in this election or not though.

[Lotuslander]

The following 2 posts are not to respond to the poster "Adam T" per se. These posts intend to flesh out and add further context to his comments thereto.

I will start here:

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I have previously provided, up-thread, an analysis of the foregoing ridings and will re-iterate some of same and provide some more salient factors thereto.

1. Burnaby municipal council is controlled by the BCA (Burnaby Citizens Association). They have been a very effective muni org. for decades. One must be a member of the BC NDP in order to be a member of the BCA. Typical municipal election turnouts in Burnaby are quite low - in the lower to upper 20% range. BTW, the BCA controls all council and school board seats in Burnaby. The centre-right has always been a joke in terms of their "election machine" thereto. Moreover, CUPE is heavily involved municipally in BC in terms of muni GOTV including Burnaby.

Since the BCA "controls" Burnaby municipally, Burnaby mayor Derek Corrigan is the chief spokes-person for Burnaby in all media. Burnaby councillors have no profile at all. Since the BC NDP provincially has always been lacking in terms of Chinese-Canadian candidates (unlike the BC Libs), they brought several "on-board" municipally in Burnaby in order to foster same potentially for future provincial/federal candidacies. Problem is both have been long-time NDP party stalwarts - Chen is long-time constituency assistant for MP Peter Julian while Kang is involved in BCTF.

Moreover Burnaby councillor Anna Kang is a terrible fit in Burnaby-Deer Lake. As I stated in a previous post - Burnaby council has rezoned 1,000's of units of 1960's/1970's era 3-storey walk-up rental apartment buildings to condominium towers. Well over 100 condo towers (half as high as 40-storeys) have either been completed, under construction, or in planning stage right now. Many of these rental apartment buildings are being torn down right now - these rental apt. building polling stations have traditionally heavily supported the BC NDP whereas the new condo tower polling stations have heavily supported the BC Libs in this marginal riding. Large protests have taken place in Burnaby and said matter has been all over both the provincial TV/print/radio media as well as local media.

The major Burnaby "Demoviction" spokesperson in the riding has been Rick McGowan, a teacher and founder of the Metrotown Residents’ Association opposing these Burnaby "Demovictions". BC Green leader Andrew Weaver attended a Burnaby "Demoviction" rally opposing same. BC NDP leader John Horgan has refused to attend same - can't blame him as he obviously doesn't wanna see a headline such as "BC NDP leader opposes Demovictions by Burnaby NDP council". Now Rick McGowan is the BC Green candidate in the riding who may well "eat" Burnaby councillor/BC NDP candidate Anna Kang's "lunch" in 2017. BTW, Kang is quite shy in terms of persona.

And lastly is newly nominated Columbia-River Revelstoke BC NDP candidate Gerry Taft in an open riding when popular incumbent BC NDP MLA Norm Macdonald stepped down as he likely saw the writing on the wall. BTW, when a BC NDP male candidate steps down, he must either be replaced by a female or a male of some "legitimate" minority group.

So the local BC NDP nomination contest was between Invermere mayor Gerry Taft and female Invermere councillor Spring Hawes (who was also wheelchair bound). After vetting, Taft was approved by BC NDP to run but his "minority"status, for the first time ever, was never disclosed. Yet Taft won. When local media inquired about his "minority" status he stated that he did not want the local BC NDP members to know. Or his family. Bizarre. Then the provincial media (Vancouver Sun, for example) focused on the matter as his female wheel-chair opponent Spring Hawes also thought some wrong-doing was going on. Taft finally gave into the pressure and declared that he was 'bi-sexual" even with a wife and newborn child. Remember, this is a somewhat socially conservative riding. Ever since then, Taft has been silent on social media. Now, after 13 years, Taft has announced that he has sold his "gelato shop". Coincidence?

Gets even more interesting. The BC NDP has never run a a disabled candidate... let alone a wheelchair-bound candidate. The current BC Libs have 2 wheelchair bound MLAs. The 1980's Socreds had one wheelchair bound MLA (Doug Mowatt). The female BC NDP candidate Spring Hawes (also wheelchair bound) believes the fix was in for her based upon her various media statements. On top of that, a BC Disability spokesperson, Paul Gilbert, also runs a Facebook page with ~9,000 followers. His take?

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https://www.facebook.com/notes/bc-disability-caucus/the-bc-ndps-bad-apple/184735010551029

16 New Democratic candidates have been nominated in non NDP ridings so far. Those who hold or held municipal office are:
1.Kamloops-South Thompson, Nancy Bepple, Kamloops City Councillor 2008-2014
2.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare, School Trustee
3.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed, Penticton City Councillor
4.Kootenay East, Randal MacNair, Fernie City Councillor and former Fernie Mayor
5.Abbotsford West, Preet Rai, School Trustee
6.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Rick Glumac, Port Moody City Councillor
7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Parksville City Councillor

1. Nancy Bepple (Kamloops-South Thompson) - In the November, 2014 Kamloops municipal election, Bepple placed in 16th place for council out of 8 spots and was uncontested in the BC NDP nomination race. Local BC Green Party candidate and Kamloops councillor Donavan Cavers place 4th/8th place. Hell, Kamloops mayor Peter Milobar, with ~80% popular vote share in 2014, won the neighbouring riding of Kamloops-North Thompson in a 3-way race for the BC Libs after the BC Lib incumbent stepped down. The bc NDP candidate is a public sector union activist for the HEU. And K-ST is the most centre-right of the 2 ridings. BTW,  "Kamloops" has always been BC's bellwether riding. Since 1903, the political  party that has won Kamloops has won Gov't. Since Kamloops has been split, K-NT is now that "bellwether riding".

2. 2.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare, School Trustee - Beare is also the VP of a CUPE local and that BC NDP riding was uncontested.

3.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed, Penticton City Councillor - Agree that he is a good, young, "hi-tech" candidate. He placed 8/8 in the November, 2014 muni election. Problem is that the riding is WASPish. When the BC NDP ran Lakhwinder Jhal in an adjacent riding in 2009, the BC NDP dropped 8% . Remember that this area is not multi-cultural Vancouver. Finally, BC NDP HQ favoured candidate in this riding was Toni Boot.

4.Kootenay East, Randal MacNair, Fernie City Councillor and former Fernie Mayor - He ran for the BC NDP nomination in 2013 and lost against 2013 BC NDP candidate Norma Blissett who, in turn, lost by a a 26% margin on e-day. The 2017 BC NDP nomination rematch has MacNair the BC NDP nominee.

5.Abbotsford West, Preet Rai, School Trustee - he also ran back in 2013.

6.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Rick Glumac, Port Moody City Councillor - apparently most of his local council motions deal with outside matters "trying to save the planet'".

7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Parksville City Councillor - a very long-time BC NDP/ social activist running in the most right-wing riding on Van Isle.

Simply put, the BC NDP is nominating "municipal" candidates that are "wrong fits" in their respective ridings. Politics 101 dictates that one nominates local high profile municipal politicians in ridings that are not only previous "marginal races" but also "right demographic/political fits". Obviously not here.

[Lotuslander]

/2

One other nominated candidate, Jagrup Brar was an NDP MLA from 2004-2013, while former M.P (2011-2015) Jinny Sims has been nominated in Surrey-Panorama.

Jagrup Brar was defeated in Surrey-Fleetwood in 2013. Same as Harry Lali in Nicola-Nicola. And you think that it's a "good" thing for defeated candidates to run again, instead of politically fresh faces?
As for Surrey-Panorama, with transposed results, the BC Libs still win comfortably in 2013. And since then, major SFD as well as townhouse developments have continued within the riding unabated. The fed NDP came in 3rd place in much of the underlying provincial riding in 2015, while the fed Libs won most of the remaining underlying polling stations. Basically the BC NDP is running a failed recycled candidate here.

Well known centre-left BC blogger Laila Yuile, who resides in the riding, and knows same tweeted this out a couple of months ago:

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Matters have become more interesting, just recently, within the northern Surrey Indo-Canadian community. To preface, Barinder Rasode was a northern Surrey BC NDP constituency assistant in both 2005 and 2009 IIRC. Rasode was also a centre-left Surrey city councillor. During the November, 2014 Surrey municipal election, Rasode ran as the centre-left candidate supported by CUPE and former BC NDP MLA/cabinet minister/BC NDP party prez Moe Sihota et al.

The final 2014 Surrey mayoral results:

1. Linda Hepner (Dianne Watts successor) - centre-right - 50.7%
2. Doug McCallum (defeated by Dianne Watts) - right-wing - 28%
3. Barinder Rasode - centre-left - 21.3%

Within the past two weeks, it has become quite apparent that high profile, centre-left former Surrey councillor and mayoral candidate Basinder Rasode has defected from the BC NDP over to the BC Libs based upon her Twitter feed:

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The foregoing is not an isolated case. I have seen previously centre-left BC NDP folk on social media move over to either the BC Libs or BC Greens. Quite eye-opening actually.

Also, for those who might have been concerned that the NDP would lose its connections to the high tech sector when Matt Toner bolted from the NDP to the Green Party, three of the candidates nominated so far hold management positions in the high tech sector or own high tech related businesses:

1.Morgane Oger, Vancouver-False Creek
2.Tarik Sayeed, Penticton
3.Rick Glumac, Port Moody-Coquitlam

Hell, back in 2013 high-profile hi-tech entrepreneur Matt Toner was the best BC NDP candidate that they ran IMHO - "outside the box" in terms of the usual SJWs, social activists, enviro activists, and public sector union activists.

In any event, centrist Matt Toner left the BC NDP for the BC Greens. Why? He came to the conclusion that the BC NDP “is trying to solve 1960s problems with 1990s people.” One must also remember that the riding of Vancouver-False Creek is centre-right demographically - contains most of the condo towers in downtown Van City mostly populated by urban professionals. In 2011 federally, many/most polling stations therein shifted to fed Con from fed Lib previously in 2006. Basically a red tory/blue liberal demographic.

The BC NDP replacement candidate in 2017 is Morgane Oger. Her only claim to fame is as a champion of transgendered-rights. That's why she was nominated. Honestly, both I and most of the electorate don't give a sh**te about a candidate's personal sexual background. All parties run candidates of LGBQT background but they don't brag about it. Here, for the first time, that's the case. One helluva political turnoff, IMHO, even when the riding is a BC NDP dead zone.

A fourth New Democrat, Bowinn Ma, in North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a professional engineer.

Bowinn Ma is a long time BC NDP activist and SJW. Furthermore, she has no profile in the riding but is of Chinese-Canadian decent - NV-L does not have much of a Chinese-Canadian demographic. OTOH, back in 2013, the BC NDP ran high profile North Van City councillor Craig Keating here.

More seriously though, this election to me is resembling more and more what happened in 1972.  The NDP thought it would win the 1969 election with the urbane lawyer Tom Berger as leader, but, sort of just like in 2013, he 'frightened' British Columbians with the idea of an NDP government (The NDP's slogan in that election was 'ready to govern.')  

After the defeat in 1969, most pundits thought Social Credit was a lock to be reelected in 1972 and then new leader Dave Barrett played into that by saying (this wasn't the NDP's slogan) "we just want to reduce the number of Social Credit MLAs"  Barrett later joked that to fellow New Democrats he would complete his sentence by adding "to zero."

Haha. Honestly, that's gotta be the (or one of) dumbest analogies in this thread. Back in 1972, Social Credit Premier WAC Bennett was 20 years in power. He was 72 (?) years old. Bennett led a mostly right-wing, socially conservative caucus with many elected back in the 1950's. By the mid-1960's, social revolution/reformism began to take hold and that impacted the BC political scene. No doubt.

BTW, if a political leader decides to hang on for more than a decade akin to WAC Bennett, without political leadership "change", the electorate will make that "change" for them. Poli 101. As a matter of fact, 1972 was the first year that my folks were eligible to vote - they both voted NDP as WAC Bennett considered himself to be a "God". Ouch.

Now the year 1969 has also been brought up. As a matter of fact, I have also brought up the year 1969 myself over the past few years. In that vein, I have no doubt that the BC NDP will receive its lowest popular vote share since 1969 in 2017 aside from the 2001 debacle. Just too much CATI data, corroborating evidence, and anecdotal evidence.

I don't know if John Horgan will play up the NDP's underdog status in this election or not though.

Horgan is the most invisible BC political leader that I have ever seen. As Global BC TV news political analyst Keith Baldrey has stated, Horgan deliberately eschews/avoids the BC media. Have never seen that before. In fact, media analysis confirms that the BC preem receives BC's most MSM coverage, then BC Green leader Weaver, and then BC NDP leader Horgan in 3rd place. Again, that has never happened before. At all.

Moreover, long-time Vancouver Sun analyst Vaughn Palmer recently wrote that BC NDP leader Horgan is "off-putting" in terms of his persona. He has previously wrote about Horgan's numerous "bozo eruptions" in the BC legislature requiring other BC NDP MLAs to hold him back.

Now, on social media, many BC NDP stalwarts want Horgan to step down in favour of someone else in fear of losing the 2017 BC election. Go figure.

[136or142]

1. Nancy Bepple (Kamloops-South Thompson) - In the November, 2014 Kamloops municipal election, Bepple placed in 16th place for council out of 8 spots

I don't know the details of why she ended up in 16th place, but Bepple resigned from city council in March of 2014 due to health concerns and then later decided to run again in the November 2014 election.  So, she was not an incumbent city councillor when she placed 16th.

http://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/kamloops-coun-nancy-bepple-resigns/


The important thing is being better known in the community which is what holding municipal office affords.  I take the rest of your comments recognizing them as the absurdly biased nonsense that they are.

I would regard the rest of Lotuslander's comments along the lines of "Yes, the NDP nominated Jesus Christ, but he's running in a riding with a large Jewish population, and there's no way they'd vote for him."

For anyone curious, I do have Lotuslander on ignore.  But since he commented right after my post, I figured he replied to what I wrote so I clicked 'show.'  For instance, I skipped over the discussion between he and Adma because there's no point in reading one side of a discussion.   (Sorry Adma!)

[Lotuslander]

As for the BC NDP nomination race itself, always tough to call... but I am leaning toward Georgia Collins. Collins ran for the fed NDP nomination in Cowichan-Malahat for the 2015 race, in a 4-person race IIRC, and was just narrowly edged out by now incumbent fed NDP MP Alistair MacGregor.

Collins is now the local fed NDP riding prez and is attractive, has a good persona and has some profile on a local high profile Shawnigan Lake issue within the riding.

In the foregoing, I was referring to the Cowichan Valley BC NDP nomination race set for early January, 2017 and that Georgia Collins was the highest profile candidate in the riding and I suspected that she would win. While Cowichan Valley will be a very tight race in 2017, had Georgia Collins won she would have been a major star in the BC NDP caucus.

Well, tonight Georgia Collins posted this on her Facebook page:

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HUGE loss here. Not an isolated case and points to, amongst many other indicators, the BC NDP heading for a train-wreck in 2017. BTW, considerable blow-back and angst tonight among BC NDP supporters, in social media, as well.

Toss the foregoing into long-time BC political analyst Keith Baldrey's column (Global BCTV) and quip thereto from today and one should begin to get the drift:

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And then might as well toss in well-known, centre-left, anti-BC Lib blogger Laila Yuile's tweet from yesterday regarding apparent BC voter majority support for the BC Libs :

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[136or142]

It turns out I will have a happy election no matter the result.  I just found out yesterday I am in the new riding of Richmond-Queensborough while Linda Reid is running (again) in Richmond East.  

The Liberal candidate in Queensborough  (and almost certainly the next MLA) is a well respected former journalist named Jas Johal.  As much as I dislike Christy Clark, I could vote for him.

The NDP candidate in Queensborough, though not yet officially nominated, will almost certainly be a human rights lawyer named Amandeep Singh.

http://singhthindlaw.com/

[Lotuslander]

Again, keep an eye on the Andrew Weaver-led BC Greens - Weaver is positioning the party as a greenish, centrist, federal "red" Liberal type of party moving them from fringe status into credibility.

Must say that the BC Greens are putting together/assembling a very credible/impressive slate of candidates to date. In some/many cases, even better than the two majors. Apparently several mayors are in the pipeline (one in Greater Victoria) and yesterday the first of 4 CEOs of high-tech companies was announced:

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http://www.bcgreens.ca/announcement_event_for_jerry_kroll_campaign_for_vancouver_mount_pleasant_tomorrow

[Vega]

Again, keep an eye on the Andrew Weaver-led BC Greens - Weaver is positioning the party as a greenish, centrist, federal "red" Liberal type of party moving them from fringe status into credibility.

That makes two parties seeking to replicate that strategy.

[Lotuslander]

Again, keep an eye on the Andrew Weaver-led BC Greens - Weaver is positioning the party as a greenish, centrist, federal "red" Liberal type of party moving them from fringe status into credibility.

That makes two parties seeking to replicate that strategy.

As far as I can see, and I follow BC politics to a "T", only BC Greens following that strategy.

[adma]

As an aside, this is back.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2017_bc/index.php

[Vega]

As an aside, this is back.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2017_bc/index.php

Bold.

[RogueBeaver]

Huntingdon retiring. https://twitter.com/keithbaldrey/status/819006502233112577

[Lotuslander]

Huntingdon retiring. https://twitter.com/keithbaldrey/status/819006502233112577

Yeah. Saw that within past 1/2 hour as well. Nobody saw that coming. At all. Unfortunate and big surprise. BTW, Vicki Huntington was a greenish red tory and the daughter of 1980's- era federal PC cabinet minister Ron Huntington (West Vancouver federal riding).

I grew up in the riding of Delta South (Tsawwassen/Ladner). Vicki Huntington was a slam dunk to win again in 2017. It has small "c" conservative demographics and now will likely revert back to the BC Lib fold - their candidate is a municipal councillor who topped both the Tsawwassen/Ladner polling stations in the November, 2014 Delta municipal election.

PS. Vicki's story in the local Delta Optimist newspaper:

http://www.delta-optimist.com/news/vicki-huntington-not-running-again-1.6945508

[adma]

Yeah. Saw that within past 1/2 hour as well. Nobody saw that coming. At all. Unfortunate and big surprise. BTW, Vicki Huntington was a greenish red tory and the daughter of 1980's- era federal PC cabinet minister Ron Huntington (West Vancouver federal riding).

Actually, West Van was then called "Capilano"; and Huntington was barely "80s-era" in cabinet, having served Joe Clark and retiring right before the Mulroney landslide.

[Lotuslander]

In other BC political news today, a business group has now launched a major $multi-million ad campaign against BC NDP leader John Horgan.

Horgan has a major problem here as, unlike previous BC NDP leaders, Horgan remains essentially invisible in the BC media. In fact, Global BC Newshour political analyst Keith Baldrey has previously written that Horgan "deliberately eschews the media". Frankly, a bizarre strategy esp. considering that Horgan is mostly unknown to the BC electorate.

As a result, Horgan sets himself up to be negatively "defined" to the BC public by others.

Was a major news item tonight on the Global BC 6 pm news with Keith Baldrey (As an aside, Global BC's 6 pm newscast, for decades, has been the highest rated newscast in BC):

http://globalnews.ca/video/3173576/election-attack-ads-target-john-horgan/

[RogueBeaver]

Clark has approved Kinder Morgan.

[Lotuslander]

As for the BC NDP nomination race itself, always tough to call... but I am leaning toward Georgia Collins. Collins ran for the fed NDP nomination in Cowichan-Malahat for the 2015 race, in a 4-person race IIRC, and was just narrowly edged out by now incumbent fed NDP MP Alistair MacGregor.

Collins is now the local fed NDP riding prez and is attractive, has a good persona and has some profile on a local high profile Shawnigan Lake issue within the riding.

In the foregoing, I was referring to the Cowichan Valley BC NDP nomination race set for early January, 2017 and that Georgia Collins was the highest profile candidate in the riding and I suspected that she would win. While Cowichan Valley will be a very tight race in 2017, had Georgia Collins won she would have been a major star in the BC NDP caucus.

Well, tonight Georgia Collins posted this on her Facebook page:

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HUGE loss here. Not an isolated case and points to, amongst many other indicators, the BC NDP heading for a train-wreck in 2017. BTW, considerable blow-back and angst tonight among BC NDP supporters, in social media, as well.

More NDP fallout in the same Cowichan Valley riding (on Van Isle) today:

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http://www.cowichanvalleycitizen.com/news/410572595.html

Vancouver Sun political reporter tweeted his thoughts today:

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Clark has approved Kinder Morgan.

Yep. Was major news all over BC media yesterday. The BC Environmental Assessment Office approved KM with about 37 additional conditions over the feds.

Strange thing though. Yesterday, heard BC NDP leader John Horgan make this statement on the news:

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Obviously in reference to the KM decision. Raised the eyebrows of many... inclusive of some media. Seems that Horgan is pitting "US" on the coast against interior BC residents. First thought that came to my mind was that Horgan was essentially throwing the BC NDP under the bus in interior BC.

This afternoon, Kamloops-North Thompson BC Lib nominee Peter Milobar (current Kamloops mayor) asked Horgan to apologize:

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http://cfjctoday.com/article/555398/milobar-upset-ndp-leaders-comments

Yep. The 2017 campaign has unofficially begun.

[DL]

I'm not sure what the issue is. Of course people in different regions of the province have different perspectives on any number of issues. Tell me something i didnt already know. in fact on this site we all endlessly pontificate about the views of people in the City of Vancouver or the island or the interior or the Fraser valley etc... When people go berserk hyperventilating about a politician committing a "gaffe" it almost always means the politician said something that everyone knows is true.

On a similar note a while ago Christy Clark said that she hated all people in Victoria because people who live there are not "real people", now THAT is a true gaffe!

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Well this should heat up the election, NYT article on BC Liberals corruption.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/13/world/canada/british-columbia-christy-clark.html?referer=https://www.google.ca/

[Lotuslander]

That's "old" news. Reported upon extensively by Gary Mason of the Globe and Mail et al last fall.

Back then, one of the the most bizarre matters coming out of same was BC NDP leader John Horgan flying out to Toronto to attend a $5,000/plate BC NDP fundraiser organized by a Ontario nuclear energy lobbyist. And then lying about it to a BC reporter.

The BC Greens, who have disavowed all union/business donations, are laughing all the way to the political bank on this issue.