2017 British Columbia election

[lilTommy]

I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

The article on CBC http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chak-au-attack-ads-1.4061606 is saying the opposite, that Au is being targted as SUPPORTING "...for drug injection sites, gender neutral bathrooms, encourages sex education for young children and supports same sex marriage."

I also Follow Spencer Herbert Chandra and he posted about this...
"Had a great meeting this morning to discuss our common fight against racist stereotypes, homophobic, and transphobic discrimination with Chak Au who is running to be an MLA in Richmond, and Morgane Oger who is running in Vancouver False Creek. On May 9 we can elect a government that truly values our province's diversity, and actively supports all of our right to be who we are free of hate and discrimination."
In a reply to someone who asked about Au's positions "...I was referring to the attack ads running saying the NDP had ruined the east side because we support LGBT people which made false claims about him, which is where the story originated. I met him today and was comfortable with what he told me. But then everyone has to judge for themselves, and I don't speak Cantonese so I can't speak to what you saw, only what he and I discussed this morning. Thanks for your comments and support! I'm focussd on serving the people of the West End and Coal Harbour as you know. I reached out to him to see if there was truth to the online comments."
"He was very clear to me that he supports same sex marriage, adoption, and trans human rights to name a few areas we agree on. I believe he is doing media on this soon which hopefully helps clear the air on this."
... we will see.

[136or142]

I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

The article on CBC http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chak-au-attack-ads-1.4061606 is saying the opposite, that Au is being targted as SUPPORTING "...for drug injection sites, gender neutral bathrooms, encourages sex education for young children and supports same sex marriage."

I also Follow Spencer Herbert Chandra and he posted about this...
"Had a great meeting this morning to discuss our common fight against racist stereotypes, homophobic, and transphobic discrimination with Chak Au who is running to be an MLA in Richmond, and Morgane Oger who is running in Vancouver False Creek. On May 9 we can elect a government that truly values our province's diversity, and actively supports all of our right to be who we are free of hate and discrimination."
In a reply to someone who asked about Au's positions "...I was referring to the attack ads running saying the NDP had ruined the east side because we support LGBT people which made false claims about him, which is where the story originated. I met him today and was comfortable with what he told me. But then everyone has to judge for themselves, and I don't speak Cantonese so I can't speak to what you saw, only what he and I discussed this morning. Thanks for your comments and support! I'm focussd on serving the people of the West End and Coal Harbour as you know. I reached out to him to see if there was truth to the online comments."
"He was very clear to me that he supports same sex marriage, adoption, and trans human rights to name a few areas we agree on. I believe he is doing media on this soon which hopefully helps clear the air on this."
... we will see.

Sounds more and more like Lotuslander deliberately posted 'fake news' here.

[Lotuslander]

I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

Sigh. You have repeatedly boasted that you have put me on your ignore list. All disingenuous. As usual.  You are nothing more than a loony conspiracy theorist. Now buzz off troll.

----------------------------------------------------

For others here.  Chinese-Canadian BC NDP candidate Au gave an interview last week in Cantonese to Fairchild media espousing his social conservative views. Au says one thing to English media and another thing to Chinese media. No wonder, as the Chinese community trends culturally social conservative.

Even today, I see both BC Lib and BC Green strategists allude to the matter on social media. If I was a strategist in one of these parties, I would alert the mainstream media a few weeks into the writ period.

In any event, one non-MSM outlet already seems to have picked up the story tonight... I am as straight as an arrow, but I believe that this is a gay publication (never heard of it before):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.dailyxtra.com/vancouver/news-and-ideas/news/richmond-ndp-candidate%E2%80%99s-statements-lgbt-rights-don%E2%80%99t-add-218657

[Lotuslander]

After weeks of Mainstreet Research's IVR/robo polls, Insights West today came out with one of their opt-in online panel polls. As an aside, the guy at Insights West is Mario Canseco, who was apparently fired after the 2013 BC election debacle at Angus Reid Strategies. Interesting to note that Mario has brought over the same poll format to Insights West.

In any event, Insights West decided numbers (with change from previous February 26 poll):

BC NDP: 40% (-1%)
BC Liberal: 38% (-2%)
BC Green: 17% (+6%)
BC Con: 3% (-2%)
Other: 2% (-1%)

http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/BCElection_Tables.pdf

Interestingly enough, IW's numbers have not changed much since their other previous poll in November, 2016 either.

Again, take these IVR/opt-in online panel polls with a grain of salt. This cheap polling junk fooled everyone back in the 2013 BC election. Many folk who follow this stuff have learnt their lesson.

For example, at the start of the 2013 BC election campaign, Angus Reid (opt-in online panel pollster) had the BC NDP with a 17% lead - their poll prior to e-day 2013 had a 9% BC NDP lead. Ekos, an IVR pollster, also had the BC NDP with a 17% lead initially and a 6% BC NDP lead in the final days of the 2013 campaign. Of course, the BC Libs won with a 4% margin.

BTW, I was advised a few weeks back by Kyle Braid, VP with Ipsos-Reid, that they will produce 3 polls during the 2017 BC election campaign - at beginning, mid-campaign, and at the end. Again, Ipsos is an opt-in online pollster, which also had an 8% BC NDP lead in their final poll before e-day 2013.

Like all of us political junkies... we love polls... even for fun... but don't put much, if any, credence on the foregoing pollsters/methodologies esp. in BC.

Now for the good polling stuff - CATI - the gold standard of polling. Innovative Research, a CATI pollster, produced a CATI poll last August, 2016. IR's prez, Greg Lyle, also knows BC and understands how to poll in BC, which can be a difficult jurisdiction to do so. Apparently, Innovative Research has CATI polling data now in the docket, which will be produced in next few days.

Even then, most of the BC populace is not paying attention to the forthcoming election. Only 2 weeks in, and during/after the TV leader's debate, does the campaign attract the full attention of the electorate.  With good CATI data then, will provide a true picture of the BC political landscape.

[136or142]

I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

Sigh. You have repeatedly boasted that you have put me on your ignore list. All disingenuous. As usual.  You are nothing more than a loony conspiracy theorist. Now buzz off troll.

I've told you before that, while I have you on ignore, I check any posts of yours that you make right after I post to see if you commented on anything I wrote.  Obviously I'm not going to give you a free license to lie about what I post.  You are a lying troll, and if you don't want to deal with me here, you should just leave.  While I like to only speak for myself, I don't think anybody here would miss you.

As to what Chak Au said, he seemed to be deliberately vague in what he said to the Chinese media, but he also never said that he agreed with any socially conservative positions.

[adma]

In any event, one non-MSM outlet already seems to have picked up the story tonight... I am as straight as an arrow, but I believe that this is a gay publication (never heard of it before):

You pride yourself of being oh-so media-connected and aware and savvy, yet ***you've never heard of DailyXtra before?!?!?!?***  What kind of bubble are you in?!?

Come to think of it, your need to qualify yourself with "I am as straight as an arrow" sounds like you're in some kind of 1986ish suspended animation where Gay Pride celebrations were to be avoided like the gay plague.  Look, kiddo; it's 2017.  It doesn't mean you have to follow it religiously or agree with the viewpoints within, but DailyXtra is a perfectly normal and accepted part of the Vancouver mediasphere.  You don't have to fear people spotting that article in your uncleared cache and thinking "uh-oh, Lotuslander's a closet case".  It's not Grindr or anything; it's not going to give you some kind of cyber-gay-cooties, it's not going to lead to endless popups advertising Hot Men! etc etc.

Frankly, you sound as clueless as...
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2011/07/26/doug_ford_blasts_margaret_atwood_over_libraries_says_i_dont_even_know_her.html

[Lotuslander]

Oh FFS. The same loony/ideological nutbar trolls posting yet contributing nothing to this thread. Run along.

Alrighty then, BC election writ will be dropped tomorrow. Then it's game on.

A look at 2 sites involving the BC election:

1. Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets (formerly UBC stock market):

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC17.php

Actually I am invested in same ($1,000 max) and also was in 2013 market (made good coin!);

2. Election Prediction Project:

http://www.electionprediction.org/2017_bc/index.php

[Lotuslander]

Bryan Breguet‏'s "TooCloseToCall" website tonight predicts the possible BC election outcomes as of right now. Remember, these predictions are based upon the cheap junk IVR/opt-in online panel polls:

[adma]

Oh FFS. The same loony/ideological nutbar trolls posting yet contributing nothing to this thread. Run along.

So the queer press is loony/ideological nutbar to you?  O-kay....

[DL]

Ipsos just released their first poll of the campaign using a mixed phone and online methodology

BC NDP - 44%
BC Liberals - 39%
Greens - 12%

http://linkis.com/www.cknw.com/2017/04/P28tV

[136or142]

Southern and Central Interior
1.Boundary-Similkameen, Colleen Ross,55, Organic Farmer, Boundary Region Agriculture Society Project Coordinator, Former Vice President National Farmers Union,  B.A - Agriculture Business Management, Grand Forks City Councillor 2014-, Kayaker

2.Columbia River-Revelstoke, Gerry Taft,35, Owner Gerry's Gelati Cafe and Stolen Church Coffee Company, Diploma - Hotel, Motel and Restaurant Management, Invermere City Councillor 2002-2008, Invermere Mayor 2008-

3.Fraser-Nicola, Harry Lali,61, Small Environmental Technology Import/Export Company Partner, Former Adult Employment Counsellor and Sporting Goods Store Co-Owner, B.A - History and South Asia Area Studies, Merritt City Councillor 1987-1990, M.L.A 1991-2001, 2005-2013

4.Kamloops-North Thompson, Barb Nederpel, Royal Inland Hospital Clerk/Care Aide, Hospital Employees Union First Vice President, President, Kamloops and District Labor Council (As Bob Mackin pointed out, the first syllables in her last name are N D P)

5.Kamloops-South Thompson, Nancy Bepple, Thompson Rivers University Career/Education STEM Co-op Coordinator, B.Sc-Mathematics and Computer Science, MSc-Atmospheric Science, PhD-Education Policy and Leadership, Thesis: International Students Strategies To Obtain Career-Related Work In Canada After Graduation, Kamloops City Councillor 2008-2014, Banjo Player

6.Kelowna East, Shelley Cook, Former Executive Director John Howard Society of Central and South Okanagan, Former Correctional Services of Canada Program Facilitator, B.A (Hons) - Psychology, M.A-Human and Social Development, PhD Candidate - Community, Culture and Global Studies

7.Kelowna-Lake Country,Erik Olesen,26, Former WallMart Assistant Manager, Former White Spot Restaurant Manager, Pre Nursing Diploma, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology Diploma, Power Equipment Certificate, Lives in Vernon

8.Kelowna-Mission, Harwinder Sandhu, Surgical Nurse and Vernon Jubilee Hospital Union Steward, Lives in Vernon

9.Kootenay East, Randal Macnair, Publishing Firm Owner (Oolichan Books), Treasurer Association of Book Publishers of British Columbia, Former Museum Curator, Previously worked in forestry, fishing and construction,  Fernie City Councillor 1999-2002, 2008-2014, Fernie Mayor 2002-2008, B.A -, 2013 Candidate for Nomination

10.Kootenay West, Katrine Conroy, Executive Director Kootenay Family Place, Former Early Childhood Educator, Cattle Rancher, Former College Instructor, Former Power Engineer, M.L.A 2005-

11.Nelson-Creston, Michelle Mungall,38, Nelson Food Cupboard (Food Bank) Manager,  B.A (Hons) - Political Science, M.A - Nelson City Councillor 2002-2005, M.L.A 2009-, Skiier and Hiker

12.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed,38, Owner Basanti Interactive Media, B-Management Information Systems,  M.B.A, LEAN Green Belt Certification - Process Improvement, Process Management Certificate, Executive Certificate - Organizational Leadership, Penticton City Councillor 2014-

13.Shuswap, Sylvia Lindgren, School Education Assistant, CUPE Local President, Former Private Senior's Care Home Owner (Carlin Cottage), B-Physical Education and Special Education

14.Vernon-Monashee, Barry Dorval, High School English Teacher, Former President Vernon Teacher's Association, Hiker, Cycling and Squash Player

[Lotuslander]

Ipsos just released their first poll of the campaign using a mixed phone and online methodology

BC NDP - 44%
BC Liberals - 39%
Greens - 12%

http://linkis.com/www.cknw.com/2017/04/P28tV

As Ipsos VP Kyle Braid confirmed to me a few weeks back - their 1st/3 polls of the BC campaign alluded to in my previous post.

72% opt-in online/28% phone. Would be interesting to see break-down of 2 methodologies but, of course, they will not provide same.

Harken back to the first Ipsos poll of the 2013 BC campaign:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6067

And of course, Ipsos' final poll on the last day of the 2013 BC campaign:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6113

Fun for us political junkies. Just cheap polling junk in terms of reliability.

[136or142]

North
1.Cariboo North, Scott Elliott, Liquor Store Clerk and Store Shop Steward, Former Owner Trout Tales Fly Fishing Adventures, Quesnel City Councillor 2011-

2.Cariboo-Chilcotin, Sally Watson,62, Rural Mail Carrier, Former Lumber Grader, Former Tire Store Owner, Thompson-Nicola Regional District Director 2002-

3.Nechako Lakes, Anne Marie Sam, School District 51 Trustee 2011-2014, Nak’azdli Whut’en Band Councillor 2014-, B.Sc- M.ASc candidate (Applied Science) -  Mining Engeering

4.North Coast, Jennifer Rice, T. Buck Suzuki Environmental Foundation Energy Campaigner, Self Employed Biological Technician, former Environmental Science Journalist, Former SCUBA Instructor, Diploma-Applied Coastal Ecology, Certificate - Not for Profit Management,   Prince Rupert City Councillor 2011-2013, M.L.A 2013-, SCUBA Diver and Kayaker

5.Peace River North, Robert Dempsey, High School Social Studies and Law Teacher, Union Local Activist, Former Corrections Officer, Former Armed Forces Reserves Officer, B.A -

6.Peace River South, Stephanie (Watson) Goudie, Dawson Creek Aquatic Center Front Desk Clerk, Dawson Creek Literary Society Project Lead, CUPE Local Vice President, Studied Social Sciences

7.Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Nicholas Simons,52, Sechelt Nation Director of Health and Social Development, Former Child Protection Social Worker, Former Criminology Instructor, Former President Sunshine Coast Arts Council B.A - Criminology, M.A - Criminology, Professional Cello Player, M.L.A 2005-

8.Prince George-Mackenzie, Bobby Deepak, Labor Lawyer and Firm Owner (North Labour Law Corporation), Law and Criminology Instructor, B.A (Hons) - Criminology, J.D, 2013 Nominee

9.Prince George-Valemount, Natalie Fletcher, Hospital Sterile Processing Technician, Hospital Employees Union Representative, Vice President North Central Labour Council

10.Skeena, Bruce Bidgood, Social Work Professor, B.A - M -Social Work, PhD - Applied Social Welfare Research and Social Policy,  Former Terrace City Councillor 2008-2014, 2014 Terrace Mayor Candidate

11.Stikine, Doug Donaldson,60 Executive Director Storyteller's Foundation (North West Economic Development Non Profit Organization), Former Journalism Instructor, Former Forestry Consulting Firm Biologist, Former Tourism Business Owner/Operator, Director Bulkley Valley Credit Union,  B.Sc - Biology, M.A - Journalism, Hiker, Hazelton City Councillor 1999-2009, M.L.A 2009-

[Lotuslander]

Another junk IVR/robo poll by Forum Research:

NDP: 39%
Lib: 29%
Green: 18%
Con: 12%
Other: 3%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/3d29e436-c19d-4939-aecf-11517b1b6687BC%20HR%20.pdf

[DL]

Its easy to dismiss IVR polls as "junk" but unlike online polls which are based on online panels that may or may not be representative of the electorate - IVR is based on random digit dialling of the the entire population...and in the last federal election as well as in just about all of the last few provincial elections - IVR polls have been pretty accurate in predicting the result - certainly no worse than old-fashioned live-interviewer phone polls.

At least we are getting some phone based public domain polls this time. In 2013 literally ALL of the publicly released polls in BC were online polls...and there is a theory that in 2013 as a result of the anti-HST referendum that had happened a year earlier, the BC online panels got skdewed with too many people who were angry at the BC Liberals. FWIW in the 2009 BC election, we saw the reverse phenomenon, most of the polls released during the campaign were traditional phone polls and they all gave exaggerated leads to the BC Liberals of 8-13 points...the one and only online poll was done by Angus Reid and their final poll gave the BC Liberals a slender 44-42% lead...the final result was BC Liberals 45% and NDP 42%...so go figure.

Usually Forum does seat projections with their polls. They seem gun-shy about doing that with their latest BC poll...but its worth noting that in 1972 the NDP beat Social Credit 39% to 29%...and the seat count ended up being NDP 38 and Social Credit 10!

Of course a lot can and will happen over the next four weeks...but I don't doubt that the snapshot on the day the writ was dropped is a narrow NDP lead...whether it stays that way for four weeks is up in the air.  So far Christy Clark seems to be trying to replicate Stephen Harper's re-election campaign strategy from 2015...a blah platform that is conspicuous for how it has almost nothing in it...plus trying to replay tired old scare campaigns against the opposition. It could work, but sometimes parties try to recycle the same strategy one time too many

[adma]

Its easy to dismiss IVR polls as "junk" but unlike online polls which are based on online panels that may or may not be representative of the electorate - IVR is based on random digit dialling of the the entire population...and in the last federal election as well as in just about all of the last few provincial elections - IVR polls have been pretty accurate in predicting the result - certainly no worse than old-fashioned live-interviewer phone polls.

It's "junk" to those like Lotuslander whose preferred approach to elections is more like playing the stock market (as per his Sauder/UBC comment) than anything.

[Lotuslander]

IVR has a terrible track record in BC. For starters, some of the IVR riding polls for the 2015 federal election in BC defied logic - the 2015 fed election results confirmed some IVR riding polls were wayyyyyyy off.

Again, during the last 2013 BC election, Ekos (IVR pollster) had the BC NDP ahead by 17% at the beginning of the 2013 campaign:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_bc_april_12_2013.pdf

At the end of the 2013 BC election campaign, Ekos held that the BC NDP had a 6% lead:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_bc_may_13_2013.pdf

Now we come back to Forum Research known as the McDonald's of the Canadian polling industry. A few weeks back, I posted herein the Forum Research numbers, which also had a 10% BC NDP lead.

Today's numbers again have a 10% BC NDP lead. But look closer - no "undecided" figure, which is always critical in election polling.

Moreover, Forum has the Cons at 12% - hell, for the first time in BC history, since the BC Cons were established back in 1903, they have no leader during a BC election. According to their website, they currently have 8 unofficial candidates/87 ridings. BC Cons have absolutely zero media coverage. No doubt that the BC Cons are back in fringe territory akin to the period between 1979 and 2009. I also have no doubt that the BC Cons will receive <1% popular vote share in 2017.

So why the 12% BC Con figure? Obviously brand confusion with the fed Cons. Most of the BC electorate not paying attention right now.

BTW, at the end of the 2013 BC election, Forum Research had its 2nd and final poll of the campaign and it still had a BC NDP win albeit closer than others.

IVR/robo polling in general typically attracts those who are "motivated" in terms of responding. Also very cheap stuff to produce. Unlike CATI with live telephone interviewers, IVR robo polls have no call-backs. On a personal note, over the past 5 years, I have been contacted by Forum Research twice (2 years apart) and did not answer phone. OTOH, during 2015 fed election, was contacted by a CATI pollster and finally answered after 3rd calling attemot.

And we are also seeing today what we were seeing back in the 2013 BC election - different IVR/opt-in online pollsters all over the map with their numbers. Caveat emptor.

OTOH, only much more expensive CATI polling has nailed BC election results. In 2013 BC election, BC Lib internal CATI polling (provincially/riding) nailed the results days before e-day - 4 days before e-day projected 48 seats (won 49). Also nailed the final BC province-wide results. Everyone (opt-in online panel/IVR) was on one side in the 2013 BC election, while the BC Libs internals were the only one on the "other" side. Why? Because CATI.

Nanos, CATI pollster, has nailed the last 5 fed elections. Also nailed the last 2 fed election BC results with their small ~140 sub-sample size - one helluva track record. Why? Because CATI.

Back in August, 2016, Innovative Research, CATI pollster, released their first ever BC polling results. Not long after, Mainstreet Research (IVR) also released BC results. Both results were completely different. Based upon 2013 election polling, quite simple to understand reasons behind same.

Now who is Innovative Research? Been around for ~15 years and the principle is Greg Lyle who is from BC and understands how to poll BC. Are their CATI polls accurate? Well, last fall both Nanos (CATI) and IR released provincial ON polls and they basically mirrored each others results. Nanos also nailed the previous ON provincial election.

Innovative Research will be releasing new BC CATI numbers soon and personally that firm will be the only one that I will rely on in terms of accuracy. I always prefer both reliability and accuracy. But if some wish to rely on obvious cheap junk polling in BC - no skin off my back.

[DL]

Mainstreet has a new poll with big honking sample size of over 5,000!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-ndp-gain-campaign-begins/

NDP 39% (up 3%)
BC Libs 35% (up 2%)
Greens -19% (unchanged)
Conservatives 7% (down 4%)

It must be very very very distressing to the BC Liberals that they are not benefiting from the inevitable collapse of the moribund BC Conservatives...but this is consistent with how previous polls showed that relatively few Conservative supporters had the Liberals as their second choice. Let's face it, its hard to imagine a BC Liberal leader who would be more repulsive to diehard small "c" conservatives than Christy Clark. She is gltzy, elitist, wears furs and is a dyed in the wool federal Liberal. If you are a rightwing populist federal Conservative type in the interior - you take one look at Christy and all you can think is "stinkeroo"!

It gets worse for the Liberals. The Green vote is very soft and if and when their vote declines as people start to vote "strategically" - for every one vote the Libs get, the NDP will get 4 or 5.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Mainstreet has a new poll with big honking sample size of over 5,000!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-ndp-gain-campaign-begins/

NDP 39% (up 3%)
BC Libs 35% (up 2%)
Greens -19% (unchanged)
Conservatives 7% (down 4%)

It must be very very very distressing to the BC Liberals that they are not benefiting from the inevitable collapse of the moribund BC Conservatives...but this is consistent with how previous polls showed that relatively few Conservative supporters had the Liberals as their second choice. Let's face it, its hard to imagine a BC Liberal leader who would be more repulsive to diehard small "c" conservatives than Christy Clark. She is gltzy, elitist, wears furs and is a dyed in the wool federal Liberal. If you are a rightwing populist federal Conservative type in the interior - you take one look at Christy and all you can think is "stinkeroo"!

It gets worse for the Liberals. The Green vote is very soft and if and when their vote declines as people start to vote "strategically" - for every one vote the Libs get, the NDP will get 4 or 5.

Wow NDP and Greens are tied on Vancouver island!

[Lotuslander]

Mainstreet has a new poll with big honking sample size of over 5,000!

DL. You are a pollster. You should very well know that any sample size over 1,000 leads to diminishing returns in terms of margin of error. Even then, Mainstreet Research has basically the same results with it's smaller n = 1,650 sample size in its previous poll. Forget about the fact that IVR/robo pollsters in BC have been notoriously wayyyyyy off.

So you then actually agree that the BC Greens are at 19% in BC and are tied with the BC NDP on Van Isle? Obviously means BC Green vote concentrated on the southern half of Van Isle and major loss of NDP seats. Frankly, doubt that ya agree with that.

Hell, I have been following national German pollsters, for example, for over a decade, and the smallest sample size utilized by one of the German major pollsters is  n = ~1,000+ for obvious reasons described above.

[DL]

The wheels are really coming off the BC Liberal campaign. Clark is being universally panned for running a dull uninspiring campaign and yesterday she even managed to make a fool of herself on Good Friday with bizarre comments about how "Good Friday shows us that hard work will be rewarded"...come again Christy, if I work hard I'll be nailed to a cross?.. anyways she has been ridiculed on social media and denounced as a know nothing by theologians. Back in 2013 she gave an interview she gave an interview to a fundamentalist Christian TV show where claimed that the Bible guided everything she did (lol)...well if she had ever actually read the Bible and wasn't faking it to get votes from the "Bible belt" she would not have said such weird things about the meaning of Good Friday. But if there is one thing Clark has always been it's a superficial phoney.

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/work-and-sacrifice-are-rewarded-b-c-premier-s-good-friday-tweet-causes-stir-1.2314278

Now top political columnists are comparing her campaign to Stephen Harper's I'll-fated reelection campaign in 2015!

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/clarks-uninspiring-battle-plan-reminiscent-of-harpers/article34714908/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet has a new poll with big honking sample size of over 5,000!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-ndp-gain-campaign-begins/

NDP 39% (up 3%)
BC Libs 35% (up 2%)
Greens -19% (unchanged)
Conservatives 7% (down 4%)

It must be very very very distressing to the BC Liberals that they are not benefiting from the inevitable collapse of the moribund BC Conservatives...but this is consistent with how previous polls showed that relatively few Conservative supporters had the Liberals as their second choice. Let's face it, its hard to imagine a BC Liberal leader who would be more repulsive to diehard small "c" conservatives than Christy Clark. She is gltzy, elitist, wears furs and is a dyed in the wool federal Liberal. If you are a rightwing populist federal Conservative type in the interior - you take one look at Christy and all you can think is "stinkeroo"!

It gets worse for the Liberals. The Green vote is very soft and if and when their vote declines as people start to vote "strategically" - for every one vote the Libs get, the NDP will get 4 or 5.

Wow NDP and Greens are tied on Vancouver island!

The same thing happened in the federal election (according to our numbers), with about 2 weeks to go. Then the Green vote collapsed as people started voting strategically.

[Lotuslander]

Now looks like a bombshell will be dropped in the middle of the campaign that will likely change the dynamic/narrative thereto.

4 days before the TV leadership debate, the U.S. government will release its decision on Canadian softwood lumber duties. That decision will potentially affect the entire dynamic of the 2017 campaign as forestry workers are extant all over BC - from NW BC to NE BC to interior BC all the way down to Van Isle. Will likely spook the electorate and likely turn political narrative entirely into "jobs and the economy":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-us-softwood-lumber-duties-1.4069893?cmp=rss&utm_content=bufferfce4e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[Pragmatic Conservative]

CBC news 14 Ridings to watch:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/poll-by-poll-14-races-that-could-decide-the-election-1.4066474

The interactive poll by poll maps are kind of neat, but far too many NDP held seats on this list and not enough BC Liberal held seats. It's really hard to call the BC Liberals the front runners at this point when they have trailed in 13 of the last 14 polls, and the last 11 in a row. Actually the last BC Liberal lead was in August of 2016.

[Lotuslander]

The same thing happened in the federal election (according to our numbers), with about 2 weeks to go. Then the Green vote collapsed as people started voting strategically.

Kinda ironic that Ekos is now the official internal pollster of the BC Green Party.