2017 British Columbia election

[Boston Bread]

The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

[MAINEiac4434]

One thing I've found going through that poll is that the BC Conservatives' only age demo above 10% is the young. The NDP lead with all age demos except 65+. Greens and NDP are even on Vancouver Island - vote splitting may allow the Liberals an opportunity there.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

One thing I've found going through that poll is that the BC Conservatives' only age demo above 10% is the young. The NDP lead with all age demos except 65+. Greens and NDP are even on Vancouver Island - vote splitting may allow the Liberals an opportunity there.

The Green vote is not very locked in though the latest Mainstreet Research poll only had 46% Green voters as effectively locked in. I suspect as the campaign goes on the Green party begins to bleed support back to the NDP.

[136or142]

Vancouver Island
Southern Vancouver Island
1.Esquimalt-Metchosin, Mitzi Dean, Executive Director Pacific Centre Family Services Association,  Former Child Protection Social Worker (in England), M - Philosophy (research) Certificate - Executive Coaching

2.Langford-Juan de Fuca, John Horgan,57, Management Consulting Firm Principal (IdeaWorks), Premier Dan Miller Chief of Staff, Former Assistant Deputy Minister,  B.A - History, M.A - History, M.L.A 2005-

3.Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Bryce Casavant,33, B.C Ministry of Forests Natural Resource Officer Former B.C Conservation Officer (resigned),  Canadian Armed Forces Veteran, B.Sc-

4.Saanich North and the Islands, Gary Holman,68, Self Employed Resource Economics Consultant, M.A - Economics Capital Region District Director 2002-2008, M.L.A 2013-

5.Saanich South, Lana Popham,48, Organic Farmer (Barking Dog Vineyard), B.A - Geography, M.A - Urban Planning, M.L.A 2009-

6.Victoria-Beacon Hill, Carole James,59,  Carrier Sekani Family Services Director of Child and Family Services, Former B.C Government Director of Child Care Policy, former Social Worker, Greater Victoria School Trustee 1990-2001, M.L.A 2005-

7.Victoria-Swan Lake, Rob Fleming,45, Communications Consulting Firm Consultant, Former Ministry of Advanced Education Research and Policy Analyst, B.A - History, Victoria City Councillor 1999-2005, M.L.A 2005-

Central and Northern Vancouver Island
1.Courtney-Comox, Ronna-Rae Leonard,60, Environmental Consultant, Former Environmental Non Profit Project Manager and Researcher, Diploma(?) - Legal Assistant, Courtney City Councillor 2005-2014, 2011 Federal NDP Nominee, 2015 Federal NDP candidate for nomination

2.Cowichan Valley, Lori Iannidinardo, House of Friendship Society Cowichan Community Kitchens Coordinator, Cowichan Valley Regional District Director 2008-

3.Mid Island-Pacific Rim, Scott Fraser,59, Tofino Harbor Authority Assistant Manager, Bed and Breakfast Owner, 2004 Federal NDP Nominee Tofino Mayor 1996-1999, M.L.A 2005-

4.Nanaimo, Len Krog,63, Lawyer and Firm Owner, President Mid-Island Consumer Co-op,  B.A - History, LLB, M.L.A 1991-1996 (for Parksville-Qualicum), 2005-

5.Nanaimo-North Cowichan, Doug Routley, 55, Former School Custodian and Union Local Representative, Former Specialty Bike Shop and Wholesale Dealership Chain Owner B.A -  Cowichan Valley School Trustee 2003-2005, M.L.A 2005-

6.North Island, Claire Trevena,54, Self Employed Communications Consultant (Start Communicating Strategies),  Former Strategic Communications Firm Managing Director, Former CBC Newsworld International Senior Editor, Former United Nations Public Information Officer, B.A(Hons)-American Studies

7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Child Protection Social Worker, Former  First Vice President B.C Government Social, Information and Health Services Component, Parksville City Councillor 2004-

[136or142]

If the NDP win the election, given the close nature of B.C elections, I predict they'll win around 50 seats.

This is based on them holding every riding they have now (which is not certain) and gaining 15 seats from the Liberals, I predict these ridings (and the NDP candidates) are:

1.Vancouver-Fraserview, George Chow
2.Burnaby North, Janet Routledge
3.Delta North, Ravi Kahlon
4.North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Bowinn Ma
5.Surrey-Fleetwood, Jagrup Brar
6.Surrey-Guildford, Garry Begg
7.Surrey-Panorama, Jinny Sims
8.Maple Ridge-Mission, Bob D'Eith
9.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare
10.Boundary-Similkameen, Coleen Ross
11.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed
12.Fraser-Nicola, Harry Lali
13.Cariboo-Chilcotin, Sally Watson
14.Cariboo North, Scott Elliott
15.Courtney-Comox, Ronna-Rae Leonard

Predicted NDP cabinet  (Remember, "This is only an exhibition, this is not a competition, no wagering") David Letterman (at a time when he was funny)
1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, John Horgan
2.Finance, Bruce Ralston
3.Economics Development and Trade, Shane Simpson
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Sally Watson
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship/Government House Leader, Mike Farnworth
6.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Adrian Dix
7.Natural Resources and Forestry/Rural Affairs, Katrine Conroy
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Lana Popham
9.Environment/Northern Affairs, Doug Donaldson
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Michelle Mungall
11.Technology, Innovation and Citizen Services, Tarik Sayeed
12.Human Resources and Housing, Harry Bains
13.Children and Family Development, Melanie Mark
14.Education/Deputy Premier, Carole James
15.Advanced Education and Training, Jennifer Rice
16.Health/Seniors, Judy Darcy
17.Municipal Affairs/Status of Women, Selina Robinson
18.Aboriginal Relations, Len Krog
19.Justice and Public Safety, David Eby

Speaker, Raj Chouhan
Deputy Speaker, Claire Trevena

Chief Government Whip, Rob Fleming
Caucus Chair, Mable Elmore

[DL]

I think the NDP is more likely to win Kamloops North than either of the Cariboo seats

[136or142]

I think the NDP is more likely to win Kamloops North than either of the Cariboo seats

Kamloops seems to be steadily trending away from the NDP and from being the swing riding that always goes with the winner.

[DL]

The NDP came closer in Kamloops North last time than they did in Cariboo-Chilcotin and the popular Liberal incumbent is quitting

[Lotuslander]

The NDP came closer in Kamloops North last time than they did in Cariboo-Chilcotin and the popular Liberal incumbent is quitting

Kamloops-North Thompson (2009 result):

BC Lib: 47%
BC NDP: 45%
BC Green:  7%

Kamloops-North Thompson (2013 result:)

BC Lib: 52.1%
BC NDP: 39.1%
BC Con: 7%

In 2013, major shift away from BC NDP throughout interior BC as a result of "Kinder Morgan Surprise" as a symbol of BC NDP anti-resource development stance.

Kamloops-North Thompson (2017 candidates)

BC Lib: Peter Milobar (Kamloops mayor who received 78.1% in November, 2014 muni election)
BC NDP: Barb Nederpal: (public sector unionist and prez of Kamloops & District Labour Council)
BC Green: Dan Hines

Aside from provincial issues, a major over-riding local Kamloops issue is the proposed Ajax Mine in the southern edge of city limits. While located in neighbouring Kamloops-South Thompson, still a city issue. A well-organized contingent of Kamloops residents oppose the proposed Ajax Mine -

http://www.stopajaxmine.ca/home
https://www.facebook.com/stopajaxmine

As a matter of fact, back in 2012, the USW pulled out of the Kamloops and District Labour Council over the KDLC's opposition to the proposed Ajax Mine:

http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/news/city-region/steelworkers-pull-out-of-labour-council-over-ajax-opposition-1.1243531

The BC Libs tacitly endorse the proposed Ajax Mine subject to environmental assessment completion.  No one really knows where the 2 local BC NDP candidates stand (all over the map), while the 2 BC Green candidates (including Kamloops councillor Donovan Cavers) oppose the proposed Ajax Mine.

BTW, the BC Greens are heavily targeting the 2 Kamloops ridings and Andrew Weaver has been there a few times already. Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer/Global BC political affairs reporter Keith Baldrey were on Kamloops radio station CHNL a few weeks back discussing provincial political scene. Both brought up that they are hearing rumblings that the BC Greens may actually finish 2nd in both Kamloops seats. I will believe it when I see it.

Finally, Kamloops-North Thompson can be considered BC's "bellwether riding". Since 1903, no political party has formed BC gov't without winning in Kamloops.

[adma]

BTW, the BC Greens are heavily targeting the 2 Kamloops ridings and Andrew Weaver has been there a few times already. Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer/Global BC political affairs reporter Keith Baldrey were on Kamloops radio station CHNL a few weeks back discussing provincial political scene. Both brought up that they are hearing rumblings that the BC Greens may actually finish 2nd in both Kamloops seats. I will believe it when I see it.

There ought to be a drinking game for each time Lotuslander namedrops Keith Baldrey.

Anyway, any such breakthrough on the WeaverGreens' part will depend on them hitting a certain "1993 Preston Manning Reform Populist" nerve (i.e. that which cannibalized from the federal NDP more than PCs).  Maybe that's why Lotuslander's so hyped up over them...

[Lotuslander]

Another Mainstreet Research poll. IVR/robo pollster. I don't put much/if any weight on these in BC, but here are decided results:

BC NDP: 39%
BC Lib: 37%
BC Green: 20%
BC Con: 3%

Greens lead on Van Isle with 38%.

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-greens-gain-writs-dropped/

[DL]

At least all the polls finally have the moribund BC Conservatives in low single digits where they belong...it was a bit of a distraction having that "phantom vote" rattling around

[Hatman 🍁]

The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

[DL]

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.

Yes, I'm well aware. See Mainstreet's bombing of the Scarborough-Rouge River by-election, even while having Chinese and Tamil versions of their IVR survey available.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.

[Zanas]

The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.

In case of a hung assembly depending on the Greens, would they be more likely to strike a deal with the NDP or the Liberals ? Has it been discussed as a possibility in the campaign ?

[lilTommy]

The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.

In case of a hung assembly depending on the Greens, would they be more likely to strike a deal with the NDP or the Liberals ? Has it been discussed as a possibility in the campaign ?

Greens are still the least committed to vote Green and overwhelmingly favour the NDP as their second choice; But this is good polling numbers from them to start, can it last? The NDP and Liberals are about stable (even on VanIsland the NDP only dropped 1 point), the green vote (in this poll) looks to be bumped up by the crash of the Conservatives?

BCLiberals seem to be the most eager for Greens to win, but policy wise would the Greens no favour the NDP?

[Hatman 🍁]

The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.

I guess social democracy and neoliberalism are all the same to you?

[DC Al Fine]

The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

Very interesting. Usually this sort of stuff is "whites somewhat right, everyone else left", so to see all the different religious and ethnic divides is really neat.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

Very interesting. Usually this sort of stuff is "whites somewhat right, everyone else left".

Not the case in Canada at all. Visible minorities tend to vote Liberal (and increasingly Conservative). Since Canada is so overwhelmingly White, Whites tend to be close to the mean, but are less likely to vote Liberal, and more-so for the NDP & Conservatives.

[Lotuslander]

Well, yesterday morning was the first radio debate between the 3 BC leaders (which was also live-streamed) and here is the take from Global BC Newshour at 6 pm yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/GlobalBC/videos/10155153659162808/?pnref=story

[Holmes]

The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.

In case of a hung assembly depending on the Greens, would they be more likely to strike a deal with the NDP or the Liberals ? Has it been discussed as a possibility in the campaign ?

If they take their cues from their federal counterpart, they'll crawl right up the Libs' asses.

[Cynthia]

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.

I somewhat don't concur. I'm "first-generation" (but I was here since 6) and I answer polls..

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.

I somewhat don't concur. I'm "first-generation" (but I was here since 6) and I answer polls..

While technically first generation, I don't think it really counts. If you immigrate in early childhood, you're going to be more similar to a 2nd generation person.