2017 British Columbia election

[136or142]

I don't understand why they would do the recount before counting the absentees.

This is British Columbia where logic comes to die.  See the resident troll here for evidence of that.

[MaxQue]

Richmond-Queensborough MIGHT flip to the NDP from Liberals. NDP reduced the margin of victory to ~170 from ~300 with about 1,000 absentee votes counted, and approximately another 1,000 absentee to go. Will find out more in about 40 minutes, when more absentee ballots are tabulated. If it doesn't entirely flip, it might still be subject to a recount though, if the margin of victory goes down to below 100 votes.

Lead is now 116 votes, they'll continue tomorrow.

[Jeppe]

Richmond Queensborough margin of victory down to 116, with 541 absentee ballots to go. A recount might be likely. If they are allowed to do one after absentee ballots are counted.

[trebor204]

Some observations on the 1st day of the 'Final Count'

Of the 16 ridings that had complete counts, the Liberal improve in 9 riding, the NDP in improve in 7. The NDP manage to improve their lead in Burnaby North by 712 votes, while in Prince Geroge-Valemount the Liberals improve their lead by 437 votes.

In Courtenay-Comox, the adjusted results show the NDP has a lead of 13 votes. The Liberal lost 6 votes,  while the NDP lost 2 votes.

In the next closest race, in Maple Ridge-Mission, the NDP lead is now at 166 compared to 120 from Election Night. So far, a total of 219 votes were added in this riding.

In Richmond-Queensborough, the Liberal lead has shrunk from 263 votes to 116, with 1361 added votes.

As of right now, the NDP has increase their vote count by 27,382 votes, while the Liberal increase the vote count by 21,906

[DL]

I think that in ridings where the BC Liberals won by a big margin on election night the absentees will likely pad their leads in raw votes though in almost every case the bC Liberals are beating the NDP by a smaller percentage of the than they got on election night...in the case of Courtenay-Comox it's likely (though not certain) that the NDP will pad its lead with absentees. In 2013 the NDP lost that seat to the Liberals by 2000 votes but won the absentees by 30 votes

[136or142]

I think that in ridings where the BC Liberals won by a big margin on election night the absentees will likely pad their leads in raw votes though in almost every case the bC Liberals are beating the NDP by a smaller percentage of the than they got on election night...in the case of Courtenay-Comox it's likely (though not certain) that the NDP will pad its lead with absentees. In 2013 the NDP lost that seat to the Liberals by 2000 votes but won the absentees by 30 votes

Different riding boundaries though in 2013.

[DL]

Somewhat different but the pattern was still that the NDP did better with absentees than election night votes and the predecessor riding of Comox Valley also contained the military base

[Hatman 🍁]

What is the theory that military personnel vote based on where their base is? I believe in federal elections, they can vote in whatever riding they want.

[DL]

What is the theory that military personnel vote based on where their base is? I believe in federal elections, they can vote in whatever riding they want.

That's why some estimate that no more than half a dozen absentee votes were actually cast in Courtenay-Comox by personnel from the base.

[Hatman 🍁]

ah, ok.

Well, I am cautiously optimistic about the count. The absentees are overwhelmingly leaning NDP so far and the PV margin keeps tightening.

[Krago]

Here are the 2013 BC election vote totals broken down by category.

Category	LIB	NDP	GP	CP	OTH	VALID	REJ	VOTERS
e-Day	563,573	489,870	105,054	63,474	40,527	1,262,498	5,784	3,176,455
Advance	160,524	153,404	25,386	16,861	10,383	366,558	1,318	0
s. 98 Special	4,901	6,566	1,073	776	335	13,651	429	0
s. 99 Absentee - in ED	31,727	30,766	7,950	4,241	2,555	77,239	829	0
s. 100 Absentee - out of ED	11,794	13,685	3,359	1,105	620	30,563	2,295	0
s. 101 Absentee - advance	4,362	4,480	780	452	199	10,273	288	0
s. 104 Voting in DEO office	15,920	14,120	2,486	1,599	772	34,897	644	0
s. 106 Voting by mail	2,473	2,964	597	311	125	6,470	176	0
Grand Total	795,274	715,855	146,685	88,819	55,516	1,802,149	11,763	3,176,455

Category	LIB%	NDP%	GP%	CP%	OTH%
e-Day	44.6%	38.8%	8.3%	5.0%	3.2%
Advance	43.8%	41.8%	6.9%	4.6%	2.8%
s. 98 Special	35.9%	48.1%	7.9%	5.7%	2.5%
s. 99 Absentee - in ED	41.1%	39.8%	10.3%	5.5%	3.3%
s. 100 Absentee - out of ED	38.6%	44.8%	11.0%	3.6%	2.0%
s. 101 Absentee - advance	42.5%	43.6%	7.6%	4.4%	1.9%
s. 104 Voting in DEO office	45.6%	40.5%	7.1%	4.6%	2.2%
s. 106 Voting by mail	38.2%	45.8%	9.2%	4.8%	1.9%
Grand Total	44.1%	39.7%	8.1%	4.9%	3.1%

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP lead down to 12 votes in Courtenay-Comox. Counting still in progress.

[DL]

Its remarkable how well the NDP si doing over all with the absentees with about half of them counted now

Share of absentee vote   
so far            95,868   
BC Liberals   34,016   35.48%
NDP                   42,876   44.72%
Greens           16,732   17.45%
Other          2,244   2.34%

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals are now ahead in Courtenay-Comox by three votes Still in progress though.

[DL]

Liberals are now ahead in Courtenay-Comox by three votes Still in progress though.

They counted 137 out of 2,077 absentees so far so we have a loong way to go there. Keep in mind that there are different categories of absentee votes (e.g. absentee out of ED, absent out of the country, voted at DRO, mobile hospital votes etc...) so its quite possible that the 137 that they counted today were all of one particular sub-category of absentee votes

[Hatman 🍁]

Counting is done in Richmond-Queensborough. Liberals win by 124 votes.

[136or142]

Its remarkable how well the NDP si doing over all with the absentees with about half of them counted now

Share of absentee vote   
so far            95,868   
BC Liberals   34,016   35.48%
NDP                   42,876   44.72%
Greens           16,732   17.45%
Other          2,244   2.34%

In 2005, the NDP received the plurality of absentee votes while, at the same time, losing two ridings where they were ahead on election day .  Both of them were ridings with former NDP MLAs trying to make a comeback: Tim Stevenson in Vancouver and Pietro Calendino in Burnaby.  (Also, both had subsequently been elected to their respective city councils.)

[Njall]

No further counting seems to have been done since the noon update in Courtenay-Comox; the lead (BCL +3 votes) and total vote count has not changed since then.

[Hatman 🍁]

counting is done for the day, will resume tomorrow.

Liberal popular vote lead is down to just 3000.

[Njall]

No further counting seems to have been done since the noon update in Courtenay-Comox; the lead (BCL +3 votes) and total vote count has not changed since then.

Actually, I just noticed that Elections BC tweeted that Courtenay-Comox will be updated later today.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Still counting but NDP up 10481-10380 in Courtenay-Comox.

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05-09_Courtenay-Comox.html

Edit: That is with roughly 56% of the absentee ballots being counted.

[DL]

I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more

[Hatman 🍁]

I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more

I agree that Courtenay-Comox will go NDP at this point, but will disagree with the latter point. (maybe if the NDP wins the popular vote?)

I don't think the Greens are stupid enough to enter into any formal coalitions and or any agreements with the party that finishes second in seats and the popular vote.

[Lord Halifax]

I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more

I agree that Courtenay-Comox will go NDP at this point, but will disagree with the latter point. (maybe if the NDP wins the popular vote?)

I don't think the Greens are stupid enough to enter into any formal coalitions and or any agreements with the party that finishes second in seats and the popular vote.

Why would that matter? Majority is a majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more

I agree that Courtenay-Comox will go NDP at this point, but will disagree with the latter point. (maybe if the NDP wins the popular vote?)

I don't think the Greens are stupid enough to enter into any formal coalitions and or any agreements with the party that finishes second in seats and the popular vote.

Why would that matter? Majority is a majority.

Because: Canadian politics.