2017 British Columbia election

[Njall]

Cabinet
Premier – John Horgan
Minister of Advanced Education, Skills & Training – Melanie Mark
Minister of Agriculture – Lana Popham
Attorney General – David Eby
Minister of Children & Family Development – Katrine Conroy
Minister of State for Childcare – Katrina Chen
Minister of Citizens’ Services – Jinny Sims
Minister of Education – Rob Fleming
Minister of Energy, Mines & Petroleum Resources – Michelle Mungall
Minister of Environment & Climate Change Strategy – George Heyman
Minister of Finance and Deputy Premier – Carole James
Minister of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development – Doug Donaldson
Minister of Health – Adrian Dix
Minister of Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation – Scott Fraser
Minister of Jobs, Trade & Technology – Bruce Ralston
Minister of State for Trade – George Chow
Minister of Labour – Harry Bains
Minister of Mental Health & Addictions – Judy Darcy
Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing – Selina Robinson
Minister of Public Safety and Solicitor General – Mike Farnworth
Minister of Social Development and Poverty Reduction – Shane Simpson
Minister of Tourism, Arts and Culture – Lisa Beare
Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure – Claire Trevena

Parliamentary Secretaries
Parliamentary Secretary for Emergency Preparedness – Jennifer Rice
Parliamentary Secretary for Poverty Reduction – Mable Elmore
Parliamentary Secretary for Seniors – Anne Kang
Parliamentary Secretary for Sport and Multiculturalism – Ravi Kahlon
Parliamentary Secretary for Technology – Rick Glumac
Parliamentary Secretary for Translink – Bowinn Ma

[RogueBeaver]

Clark's quitting as Grit leader. So Dippers get a break for a while.

[DL]

Clark is not only quitting as leader of the BC Liberal Party, she is also resigning her seat in the legislature effective August 4. Since Horgan has six months to call a byelection that means the NDP/Greens will have a clear majority with no need for a tie-breaking vote by the speaker during the entire fall session and up to March of 2018.

Where is "Lotuslander" these days? I usually rely on his posts about BC politics to know what will NOT happen next.

[lilTommy]

Clark is not only quitting as leader of the BC Liberal Party, she is also resigning her seat in the legislature effective August 4. Since Horgan has six months to call a byelection that means the NDP/Greens will have a clear majority with no need for a tie-breaking vote by the speaker during the entire fall session and up to March of 2018.

Where is "Lotuslander" these days? I usually rely on his posts about BC politics to know what will NOT happen next.

The NDP have never won this seat, so this is a good thing. Had this been a winnable seat, we could see a by-election before that (ONLY if it was really winnable)
but question, since the NDP HAS no history here, this is not favourable territory, could they not run a candidate in favour of a Green? (posted in the other CDN by-election thread too)

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

[MAINEiac4434]

So who are the likely candidates to replace Clark as leader?

[136or142]

Clark is not only quitting as leader of the BC Liberal Party, she is also resigning her seat in the legislature effective August 4. Since Horgan has six months to call a byelection that means the NDP/Greens will have a clear majority with no need for a tie-breaking vote by the speaker during the entire fall session and up to March of 2018.

Where is "Lotuslander" these days? I usually rely on his posts about BC politics to know what will NOT happen next.

The NDP have never won this seat, so this is a good thing. Had this been a winnable seat, we could see a by-election before that (ONLY if it was really winnable)
but question, since the NDP HAS no history here, this is not favourable territory, could they not run a candidate in favour of a Green? (posted in the other CDN by-election thread too)

The CCF though held the Kelowna area federally from 1948-1957 under Owen Jones, a furniture store owner and mayor of Kelowna throughout the 1930s.

http://www.kelownacapnews.com/opinion/letter-kelowna-voters-supported-ccf-precursor-to-ndp/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owen_Jones_(politician)

[136or142]

So who are the likely candidates to replace Clark as leader?

The first name being mentioned is Dianne Watts, the former Surrey mayor and presently Conservative M.P for Surrey-White Rock.

Watts was a very popular mayor but her popularity dropped somewhat from her leaving as mayor to running for M.P due to a wave of gang shootings and other crime problems in Surrey that caused a re-evaluation of her tenure as mayor, and she won her election to Parliament by a narrow margin (I think 1,600 votes.)

If she doesn't run, I think most of the attention would turn first to those who ran against Christy Clark in 2011: Kevin Falcon and George Abbott.  Abbott has said he's done with politics and is no longer a member of the B.C Liberals (I believe I read he was also once a New Democrat) but Kevin Falcon came forward to criticize Clark for her stolen throne speech stunt.

Other than them, I would look at Mike Bernier the former Education Minister who is regarded as somebody who can bring people together.  I think his firing of the Vancouver School Board would also large help him in his run for leader.  He can portray himself as a consensus builder who also has a spine.

I would think John Rustad who received very positive grades for his handling of the B.C forest fires as the person who was named the Forests and Natural Resource Operations minister for the brief time after the Liberal election loss would also be a strong candidate.

An outsider I'd like to see but has given no indication is James Moore, the former Conservative M.P and Industry Minister who was regarded as a 'Red Tory.'

From the 'who asked you to run?' list, those who are considered to want to run but not likely to garner a lot of support are the extremely book smart but hopelessly tin eared Andrew Wilkinson and the former mayor of Vancouver Sam Sullivan.  I think there may have been one or two other Liberal M.L.As who have been mentioned as wanting to run but not likely to garner a lot of support (unless, of course, nobody who would be the frontrunners decides to run.)

[136or142]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

Weaver was just interviewed on CKNW and when he was asked about the idea of discussing running a single candidate with the NDP he said "we are an opposition party and will run a candidate."  I think the concept that he might ask the NDP to not run a candidate never even occurred to him.

[adma]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

[136or142]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

From the CBC website:
After Christy Clark announced she would be stepping down as leader of the B.C. Liberal Party, the first public comments from her fellow MLAs came from Rich Coleman, B.C.'s long-time deputy premier.   

"I want to talk about Christy for a second," he said, voice choking up, outside the building where the Liberals were holding a caucus retreat.

"I've never worked with anybody with more passion and love, strength of leadership and management in my entire life than Christy Clark.

"What she's given to this province should never be forgiven," said Coleman, before realizing his mistake.

"Forgotten."

To misquote former B.C Liberal Leader Gordon Wilson "This is a classic example...of a Freudian slip."

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

[DC Al Fine]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? I just created my own crosstabs!

[DC Al Fine]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? I just created my own crosstabs!

Yes. That was poor wording on my part.

Are you guys polling BC enough to get a large enough sample for meaningful crosstabs? Atlantic crosstabs are crappy enough, and the Okanagan is smaller than that

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? I just created my own crosstabs!

Yes. That was poor wording on my part.

Are you guys polling BC enough to get a large enough sample for meaningful crosstabs? Atlantic crosstabs are crappy enough, and the Okanagan is smaller than that

We had a lot of data across the country available during the federal election. It's why my (our) seat by seat predictions were the best; I was able to identify trends that no one else could possibly know (except those working on the campaigns).

[Pragmatic Conservative]

New BC Liberal shadow cabinet revealed  and BC Legislature will return on September 8th.

 http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/ndp-throne-speech-sept-8-bc-1.4234967

[mileslunn]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? I just created my own crosstabs!

Yes. That was poor wording on my part.

Are you guys polling BC enough to get a large enough sample for meaningful crosstabs? Atlantic crosstabs are crappy enough, and the Okanagan is smaller than that

We had a lot of data across the country available during the federal election. It's why my (our) seat by seat predictions were the best; I was able to identify trends that no one else could possibly know (except those working on the campaigns).

Central Okanagan seems to never go NDP but it will occasionally go Liberal (as in real Liberal, not centre-right BC Liberals) if people are angry enough at the right.  I think the federal Liberal win there is more comparable to Judy Tyabji winning provincially in 1991 under the Gordon Wilson BC Liberals (who were a real liberal party then).  I suspect a combination of the left coalescing around the Liberals and some dissatisfied Tories pissed at Harper voting Liberal put them over the top.  Considering Christy Clark got 59% there and all the Okanagan ridings went massively BC Liberal, it would be a massive shock if she lost her seat.  What I am surprised about is she is not waiting until the leader is chosen as what if the next leader is someone like Diane Watts who doesn't have a seat in the legislature.  It would make sense to run him or her in a very safe seat rather than risk the embarrassment of losing never mind losing a seat gives the NDP-Greens a longer lease on life.

[adma]

I suspect a combination of the left coalescing around the Liberals and some dissatisfied Tories pissed at Harper voting Liberal put them over the top. 

Or, dissatisfied Tory *voters*, many of whom had hitherto viewed the CPC as an only-viable-option "vote of convenience".

Growth and demographic shifts may also be a factor, i.e. newer Kelowna hordes (including retirees) being more "moderate" and less Bible-Belty than their predecessors...

[mileslunn]

I suspect a combination of the left coalescing around the Liberals and some dissatisfied Tories pissed at Harper voting Liberal put them over the top. 

Or, dissatisfied Tory *voters*, many of whom had hitherto viewed the CPC as an only-viable-option "vote of convenience".

Growth and demographic shifts may also be a factor, i.e. newer Kelowna hordes (including retirees) being more "moderate" and less Bible-Belty than their predecessors...

True enough although it seems provincially at least the over 65 group is solidly BC Liberals whatever the federal leanings (sort of a more modified version in age distribution compared to the last British election).  Never mind it will be interesting to see if the federal Liberals manage to hold Kelowna-Lake Country in 2019.  Based on the current polling that just might, but history would suggest not so too early to tell.  That being said even if they do lose that one its not going to cost them government they would have to lose ones like the North Shore seats to be in danger of losing outright.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

The new speaker is Darryl Plecas who is my MLA and now he's gotten expelled from the BC Liberal party LOL.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/darryl-plecas-1.4282683

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Can the BC Liberals do anything right?

[adma]

Oddly enough, reading btw/the polling subdivision lines, I'd wonder about the BCNDP potential in Abbotsford--at least in the long term, with a bow to creeping ethnoburbanism.  (And particularly if Team Horgan continues its disarming "nice party" pattern.)