Roy Cooper 2020

[Glenmore]

I'm not sure why people haven't brought this up. Roy Cooper, current governor of North Carolina, beat an incumbent Republican, the first time this has happened since 1977. His track record in NC hasn't been too bipartisan, with a extremely hostile Republican legislature, but he is a charismatic souther Democrat (see Bill Clinton, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter). If Deval Patrick were too run, or Kamala Harris, they would be his biggest rivals, more so than Sanders. Still, Biden would be an unstoppable force to the nomination, but Cooper has real winning power in the election, like Biden, but is virtually scandal free, whereas the concervative right and some moderates believes Biden to be "creepy". My simulations of Cooper V. Trump ended with: (Simulation data May 2017-March 2018)

1st Sim:
a
Cooper/McAuliffe: 278
Trump/Pence: 260

b
Cooper/McAuliffe: 257
Trump/Pence: 281

2nd Sim:
a
Cooper/Harris: 327
Trump/Pence: 211

b
Cooper/Harris: 296
Trump Pence: 242

3rd Sim:
a
Cooper/Sanders: 293
Trump/Pence: 245

b.
Cooper/Sanders: 281
Trump/Pence: 257

4th Sim:
a
Cooper/Warren: 272
Trump/Pence: 266

b
Cooper/Warren: 266
Trump/Pence: 272

5th Sim:
a
Cooper/Castro: 336
Trump/Pence: 202

b
Cooper/Castro: 274
Trump/Pence: 264

6th Sim:
a
Cooper/Brown: 321
Trump/Pence: 217

b
Cooper/Brown: 305
Trump/Pence: 233

7th Sim:
a
Cooper/Biden: 350
Trump/Pence: 188

b
Cooper/Biden: 368
Trump/Pence: 170

8th Sim:
a
Cooper/M. Obama: 306
Trump/Pence: 232

b
Cooper/M. Obama: 279
Trump/Pence: 259

9th Sim:
a
Cooper/Patrick: 342
Trump/Pence: 196

b
Cooper/Patrick: 310
Trump/Pence: 228

10th Sim:
a
Cooper/Garcetti: 289
Trump/Pence: 249

b
Cooper/Garcetti: 301
Trump/Pence: 237

[Sirius_]

How did you simulate these?

[Glenmore]

I will not claim the accuracy of these, but I use historical state-wins, local state-wide polling on candidates and issues, and current national polling data (as well as polling date from early to mind 2017)

What do you think of these results?

[Sirius_]

His high performance is interesting, but not super surprising for a moderate dem against Trump. I'd have to research some more but he seems like a guy I could get behind.

[Glenmore]

I believe a moderate southern Democrat, with an unrivaled political track record, is the only way Dems will win in 2020 if the Rep ticket remains Trump/Pence

[Sirius_]

I believe a moderate southern Democrat, with an unrivaled political track record, is the only way Dems will win in 2020 if the Rep ticket remains Trump/Pence

I wouldn't be that pessimistic about it. I do think that a moderate (but not too conservative) southerner would make for a strong nominee.

[Devils30]

I think Cooper is more likely as a VP pick in 2020. He'd be a fit with Warren.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I believe a moderate southern Democrat, with an unrivaled political track record, is the only way Dems will win in 2020 if the Rep ticket remains Trump/Pence

Can you explain exactly why Obama non-voters in 2016 and newly registered young people will come out for a moderate Southern Democrat in ways they did not for Hillary Clinton?

[TML]

Obama proved that it is no longer absolutely necessary to run a southern Democrat to win nationally. It should also be noted that running someone who isn't terribly progressive will likely depress turnout among the Democratic base.

I also looked at Cooper's campaign finance record, and I find that he has taken corporate donations, so I see him as being vulnerable to corporate influence once in office.

[Glenmore]

Hillary was a doomsday candidate. Who chance of winning was always extremely thin and had decided to use New York, not Arkansas, as her home state. Hillary was not a southern Democrat, and you are very correct by saying you don't have to be southern to win. I'd read some other comments and I feel so stupid for not thinking of Roy Cooper as a VP. I am a fool, ed'd be perfect for someone like Sanders. But I cannot see Warren winning the nomination if someone like Harris runs.

[Devils30]

I think Warren would defeat Harris pretty easily. Unlike Obama, don't expect her to have a large college campus following, if anything this will be Warren's crowd. I think Kamala and the donor types will really struggle with white millennials, the types who offer nothing on economic policy, particularly student debt.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He would be a good choice but I think his veto power over the villains in the North Carolina legislature (until they find some way to weaken that) is just as important as having a Democrat in the White House. Maybe he could be a Vice Presidential nominee but I just see him leaving his governorship as a waste under most circumstances.

[libertpaulian]

NC needs the handsome sexagenarian with the polite Southern drawl to stay put to keep the out-of-control legislature in line.

[Fuzzy Bear]

What would be the premise for his candidacy? 

He's an example of someone who's put forward solely for the purpose of adding a state to the Democratic column.  That's a valid consideration, but in doing so, one ought to put forth a candidate with more of a record that Cooper will have amassed by the time he starts his candidacy.

[libertpaulian]

What would be the premise for his candidacy? 

He's an example of someone who's put forward solely for the purpose of adding a state to the Democratic column.  That's a valid consideration, but in doing so, one ought to put forth a candidate with more of a record that Cooper will have amassed by the time he starts his candidacy.

The problem is that beyond vetoing bills, Cooper is essentially a paper tiger due to the GOP control of the state legislature.

[Glenmore]

What would be the premise for his candidacy? 

He's an example of someone who's put forward solely for the purpose of adding a state to the Democratic column.  That's a valid consideration, but in doing so, one ought to put forth a candidate with more of a record that Cooper will have amassed by the time he starts his candidacy.

I defiantly have thought this more over and as I want Cooper to run, I'd think he would be a much stronger VP candidate. Solid Dem in a traditionally (post 1968) republican state, would be much smarter choice than let's say a white man from virgina who can speak spainish