So Trump really did make "the best deals".
It is true that Trump had these organizations behind him, and going for Pence as VP helped him a lot with those groups as well, but the real clincher was Scalia's death. With that Supreme Court seat on the line, these people would vote for an Atheist gun hater, if it meant a Conservative Justice.
But even beyond blowing the ceiling off among these base groups (besting Romney and Bush), Trump's winning argument was his populist, anti-Washington, anti-establishment message. It echoed what had won for the Republicans their massive victories in the Midwest in 2010 (including knocking off incumbents like Oberstar for instance that weren't even on the radar). The only path to victory for the Republicans was Libertarian-Populism, which I said throughout 2013 and 2014. I said back in early 2015, while dismissing the notion that Trump would even run "not to underestimate the power of a billionaire running a populist message in the rust belt".
