Why did Scott Garrett lose?

[Bojack Horseman]

I didn't follow this race, but looking at the demographics of the district (R+4) and considering how big an abject disaster the night was for Democrats in general, this one seems to be a shocker.

[Kevin]

I didn't follow this race, but looking at the demographics of the district (R+4) and considering how big an abject disaster the night was for Democrats in general, this one seems to be a shocker.

From my understanding his District might have an Atlas Blue tinge to it but it was a very socially moderate and suburban GOP one. And that at the moment me of the day his pronunced social conservatism such as his stance on gay marriage/supporting gay Republican candidates did indeed hurt him.

[Tintrlvr]

I didn't follow this race, but looking at the demographics of the district (R+4) and considering how big an abject disaster the night was for Democrats in general, this one seems to be a shocker.

The demographics of that particular district were terrible for Trump (dominated by wealthy, highly educated people in northern Bergen and Passaic Counties, so also a great fit for Romney). I think it most likely swung to Clinton despite swings to Trump in the less populated rural areas in the western part of the district. Garrett, being mainly an arch-social-conservative, was never a good fit for the district, and Gottheimer struck the right chords at the right time.

Also, at the redistricting, the district was drawn to be significantly more competitive by including the Democratic stronghold of Hackensack, which is lower income and mostly minority. Garrett didn't get a serious challenge in 2012, so this was the first presidential year where he was seriously challenged with Hackensack in his district.

[Torie]

Perhaps the CD is not enamored with nutter homophobes who need therapy to overcome their fears. Just a thought.  Glad his ass was booted out obviously. What an embarrassment! And given the CD's demographics, there was no excuse for this whatsoever in terms of just protecting his political career. Thus this issue, in part was a career ender for him. Sweet!

[Fusionmunster]

The ads against Garrett were devastating. A homophobic bigot who supports the Confederate flag, who didnt support the 9/11 victims bill and would be better suited from Alabama and not New Jersey. It was a perfect campaign from the Democrats.

[Maxwell]

Garrett is an odious creep and his district finally recognized it when even Trump was more pro-LGBT.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Gottheimer ran a very strong, moderate campaign (lower taxes was one the central tenets) which basically called out Garrett for not bringing federal money back to the district which mean taxpayers would have to pay more to get less. I think the "Garrett Tax" campaign was very effective and probably sealed it for him.

[SATW]

Garrett's comments on LGBT Republicans sunk him. I wasn't against him but he definitely lost this race on his own.

[Lief 🗽]

Because, as the ads I saw millions of times on TV explained to me, he is a "tea party extremist" and his opponent was a Nice Guy! FF! who wanted to cut our taxes.

[DavidB.]

Josh Gottheimer literally calls himself a, I quote, "fiscally conservative social progressive" in one of his campaign videos. New Atlas hero!

[Kingpoleon]

Garrett was a social conservative with economic moderate/populist leanings. That works for Christopher Smith's district, but not Garrett's anymore.

[publicunofficial]

The "Bad congressman in marginal district finally draws strong challenger" effect

[Maxwell]

oh jeez this Gottheimer guy is like a moderate Republican.

I mean, that's one way to beat a lunatic incumbent. He almost reminds me of Patrick Murphy, who was a former Republican and ran on "i'm kind of conservative but golly this guy is nuts" in 2012 against certified wacko and asshat Allan West.

I like that Gottheimer beat Garrett, I just hope Gottheimer doesn't run for higher office after this.

[The Arizonan]

oh jeez this Gottheimer guy is like a moderate Republican.

I mean, that's one way to beat a lunatic incumbent. He almost reminds me of Patrick Murphy, who was a former Republican and ran on "i'm kind of conservative but golly this guy is nuts" in 2012 against certified wacko and asshat Allan West.

I like that Gottheimer beat Garrett, I just hope Gottheimer doesn't run for higher office after this.

How come you don't want Josh Gottheimer to run for higher office?

[publicunofficial]

oh jeez this Gottheimer guy is like a moderate Republican.

I mean, that's one way to beat a lunatic incumbent. He almost reminds me of Patrick Murphy, who was a former Republican and ran on "i'm kind of conservative but golly this guy is nuts" in 2012 against certified wacko and asshat Allan West.

I like that Gottheimer beat Garrett, I just hope Gottheimer doesn't run for higher office after this.

How come you don't want Josh Gottheimer to run for higher office?

Because NJ can elect a more liberal Senator than Gottheimer.

Of NJ's congressional delegation, I'd most like to see Frank Pallone get a promotion. Really, anyone but Sires or Norcross.

[Klartext89]

oh jeez this Gottheimer guy is like a moderate Republican.

I mean, that's one way to beat a lunatic incumbent. He almost reminds me of Patrick Murphy, who was a former Republican and ran on "i'm kind of conservative but golly this guy is nuts" in 2012 against certified wacko and asshat Allan West.

I like that Gottheimer beat Garrett, I just hope Gottheimer doesn't run for higher office after this.

Allan West was one of the best Rep the US ever had. Trump should consider him for his cabinet. Black Republicans scare Dems to hell, cause they know that there are way more social conservative Blacks than there are really liberal AA. He saw this in the gay marriage ballot measure in CA for example.

[publicunofficial]

oh jeez this Gottheimer guy is like a moderate Republican.

I mean, that's one way to beat a lunatic incumbent. He almost reminds me of Patrick Murphy, who was a former Republican and ran on "i'm kind of conservative but golly this guy is nuts" in 2012 against certified wacko and asshat Allan West.

I like that Gottheimer beat Garrett, I just hope Gottheimer doesn't run for higher office after this.

Allan West was one of the best Rep the US ever had. Trump should consider him for his cabinet. Black Republicans scare Dems to hell, cause they know that there are way more social conservative Blacks than there are really liberal AA. He saw this in the gay marriage ballot measure in CA for example.

Aaaaaaaand ignored.

[Klartext89]

oh jeez this Gottheimer guy is like a moderate Republican.

I mean, that's one way to beat a lunatic incumbent. He almost reminds me of Patrick Murphy, who was a former Republican and ran on "i'm kind of conservative but golly this guy is nuts" in 2012 against certified wacko and asshat Allan West.

I like that Gottheimer beat Garrett, I just hope Gottheimer doesn't run for higher office after this.

Allan West was one of the best Rep the US ever had. Trump should consider him for his cabinet. Black Republicans scare Dems to hell, cause they know that there are way more social conservative Blacks than there are really liberal AA. He saw this in the gay marriage ballot measure in CA for example.

Aaaaaaaand ignored.

Truth hurts

[Kingpoleon]

I'd love a Governor or Senator Gottheimer. Gottheimer won by four in a Romney+2 district that Garrett won by 12%(55-43) in 2012 and 2014.

[progressive85]

He lost because he was a nut.

[LabourJersey]

Also, it should be noted that much of the NJ Democratic apparatus in the state focused on NJ-5 and on defeating Garrett. This is mostly because there wasn't a senate race and all six of New Jersey's democratic districts are totally safe, so they had massive resources available (incidentally NJ's democrats get a lot of flak, but when it comes to elections besides Governor they are very competent)

I know Phil Murphy, Steve Sweeney, Steve Fulop and other rumored gubernatorial candidates campaign for Gottheimer to show off their credentials at one point (though Fulop and Sweeney both passed on the 2017 gov. election), and a lot of money was poured into the race. Meanwhile the NJ GOP did almost nothing for Garrett, and the national group didn't want to touch him.

On the issue of a Sen. Gottheimer or Gov. Gottheimer I doubt it.

[Zioneer]

oh jeez this Gottheimer guy is like a moderate Republican.

I mean, that's one way to beat a lunatic incumbent. He almost reminds me of Patrick Murphy, who was a former Republican and ran on "i'm kind of conservative but golly this guy is nuts" in 2012 against certified wacko and asshat Allan West.

I like that Gottheimer beat Garrett, I just hope Gottheimer doesn't run for higher office after this.

Allan West was one of the best Rep the US ever had. Trump should consider him for his cabinet. Black Republicans scare Dems to hell, cause they know that there are way more social conservative Blacks than there are really liberal AA. He saw this in the gay marriage ballot measure in CA for example.

Yes, because a lunatic war criminal is totally a good candidate.

[freepcrusher]

anyone see a comparison to Phil Crane in 2004, Vince Snowbarger in 1998, Bill Baker in 1996 and Dan Frisa in 96? All were congresscritters from mainly suburban (and in Frisa's case urban) districts where they were all defeated for either being too conservative or because of character flaws (Phil Crane had a drinking problem)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Gottheimer seems like he'd be a really good NJ Governor at some point. But yeah, Garret lost because he was terrible and the Dems finally found a candidate who could appeal enough to the district.