2018 House elections Megathread

[Figueira]

I would be very careful about comparing the 2018 midterm to the 2010 one. Back then a large chunk of the Republican gains came in seats which were solidly Republican at the Presidential level. Yes they picked up swing seats too but they hardly swept the board with them, the huge gains came primarily as the natural structural Republican advantage in the House asserted itself as large scale ticket splitting came to an end. They won very few seats that are strongly Democratic at the Presidential level. This is why I wouldn't be too bullish on Democrats chances particularly in heavily Republican seats like SD-AL, MT-AL, KY-06 as even if they get good candidates the deep divisions in the electorate are more likely than not to sink them in the end. They will probably also have to watch their backs in heavily Trump districts like MN-07.

I think the Democrats path to regaining the house is a narrow one through suburban districts which rejected or came close to rejecting Trump for example several in California, Texas and the suburban Minnesota ones, while GOP districts where Trump did relatively very well like MI-01 and the seats in New York state will be tough nuts to crack. Sorry to rain on the parade.

This is a point I've been meaning to make for a while. I think the Democrats can win in 2018, but it's a completely different dynamic from 2010.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Alan Grayson files paperwork to run in FL-11, however insists that he is still undecided on actually running.

From Rollcall

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http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/alan-grayson-files-paperwork-to-run-in-2018

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

I'm really surprised Democrats failed so much at recruiting in AZ-02. The race was decided by literally hundreds of votes in both 2012 and 2014. Did McSally just scare people off with her fundraising or did Democrats just write this off for some reason? Because a district that competitive (closest House race of 2014) should not have had such an utter recruitment failure.

Yeah Democrats aren't going to beat McSally - They probably weren't going to do it with Heinz, either.

Heinz did win the primary. He was a bad fundraiser, bad fit, generally not a good candidate, he didn't have an active campaign, McSally crushed him with attack ads, etc.

If McSally goes down, it will be to someone like Victoria Steele (Heinz's primary opponent, lost it by 5 points).

[Nyvin]

Should democrats just give up on VA-10 for a little? Comstock won by 6 points, even as Clinton carried it by 10.

Heck no!   They need to refocus on VA-10 hardcore.

[ajc0918]

My thoughts on Florida in 2018:

Defense:
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy- Democrats need to hold this seat, HRC won it by 7.3%.
FL-13 Charlie Crist- This district could be a challenge, HRC won it by 3% after Obama won it by 10%.

Offense:
FL-18- Patrick Murphy should run again to get his seat back, I think he'd would be the best challenger but Trump won this seat by 9%. Would be tough to pick up but I think it'd doable with enough resources. 

FL-26 Carlos Cubelo- HRC won this district by 16%(!!!), Joe Garcia was a flawed candidate. Dems need a good recruit to win this seat but it is very doable I think. There are a lot of historically republican Cubans though but it is trending toward democrats.

FL-27 Ilana Ros-Lehtinen- I don't think she can be picked off simply because she has really separated herself from Trump but it's worth a shot. This district is moving towards democrats and HRC won it by 19.3%(!!!). Democrats definitely need to target it in 2018, IRL won by 9% in 2016. These are the seats that we can win by surprise.

FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart- Trump won this districy by 1.5% after a strong swing to the Democrats(Romney won it by 9.6%). The right candidate may be able to do it. Would definitely need to be able to appeal to the Naples portion of the district.

FL-16 Vern Buchanan- Very unlikely to pick up this seat(Trump won it by around 11%) but these are the seats that at least need a competent candidate. Force the FL GOP to spend money defending this seat.

Thoughts?

[Heisenberg]

My thoughts on Florida in 2018:

Defense:
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy- Democrats need to hold this seat, HRC won it by 7.3%.
FL-13 Charlie Crist- This district could be a challenge, HRC won it by 3% after Obama won it by 10%.

Offense:
FL-18- Patrick Murphy should run again to get his seat back, I think he'd would be the best challenger but Trump won this seat by 9%. Would be tough to pick up but I think it'd doable with enough resources. 

FL-26 Carlos Cubelo- HRC won this district by 16%(!!!), Joe Garcia was a flawed candidate. Dems need a good recruit to win this seat but it is very doable I think. There are a lot of historically republican Cubans though but it is trending toward democrats.

FL-27 Ilana Ros-Lehtinen- I don't think she can be picked off simply because she has really separated herself from Trump but it's worth a shot. This district is moving towards democrats and HRC won it by 19.3%(!!!). Democrats definitely need to target it in 2018, IRL won by 9% in 2016. These are the seats that we can win by surprise.

FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart- Trump won this districy by 1.5% after a strong swing to the Democrats(Romney won it by 9.6%). The right candidate may be able to do it. Would definitely need to be able to appeal to the Naples portion of the district.

FL-16 Vern Buchanan- Very unlikely to pick up this seat(Trump won it by around 11%) but these are the seats that at least need a competent candidate. Force the FL GOP to spend money defending this seat.

Thoughts?

I agree mostly, but FL-25!? I mean it never hurts to target a seat and force the other side to spend to defend, but the 25th is Mario's seat as long as he wants it. Remember, while Cubans dominate the Republican primary, it also extends into the Naples area, which saved it from voting for Clinton. The local Cuban Republican machine is till pretty strong, and downballot many younger Cubans are still splitting their tickets. The fact Clinton couldn't win the seat shows it's out of reach for now. I'm also confident we'll see a temporary "dead cat bounce" with Republican performance with Cubans. Also, what do you think about FL-09 (Bill McCollum's old seat)? It's only D+3 (2012) but I think it swung left and it looks like it'll only continue to do so, but on paper it should be competitive with an IRL-like candidate in the right year, but maybe I'm a little optimistic.
And what about....
FL-06: DeSantis has it locked down, but it's only R+4 after redistricting and could flip in the right year.
FL-11: Webster is a lightning rod for controversy and has had unusually close calls. If Grayson runs Webster should make it but the right candidate can beat him, even if he/she goes down as a one-termer.

[publicunofficial]

My thoughts on Florida in 2018:

Defense:
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy- Democrats need to hold this seat, HRC won it by 7.3%.
FL-13 Charlie Crist- This district could be a challenge, HRC won it by 3% after Obama won it by 10%.

Offense:
FL-18- Patrick Murphy should run again to get his seat back, I think he'd would be the best challenger but Trump won this seat by 9%. Would be tough to pick up but I think it'd doable with enough resources. 

FL-26 Carlos Cubelo- HRC won this district by 16%(!!!), Joe Garcia was a flawed candidate. Dems need a good recruit to win this seat but it is very doable I think. There are a lot of historically republican Cubans though but it is trending toward democrats.

FL-27 Ilana Ros-Lehtinen- I don't think she can be picked off simply because she has really separated herself from Trump but it's worth a shot. This district is moving towards democrats and HRC won it by 19.3%(!!!). Democrats definitely need to target it in 2018, IRL won by 9% in 2016. These are the seats that we can win by surprise.

FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart- Trump won this districy by 1.5% after a strong swing to the Democrats(Romney won it by 9.6%). The right candidate may be able to do it. Would definitely need to be able to appeal to the Naples portion of the district.

FL-16 Vern Buchanan- Very unlikely to pick up this seat(Trump won it by around 11%) but these are the seats that at least need a competent candidate. Force the FL GOP to spend money defending this seat.

Thoughts?

I agree mostly, but FL-25!? I mean it never hurts to target a seat and force the other side to spend to defend, but the 25th is Mario's seat as long as he wants it. Remember, while Cubans dominate the Republican primary, it also extends into the Naples area, which saved it from voting for Clinton. The local Cuban Republican machine is till pretty strong, and downballot many younger Cubans are still splitting their tickets. The fact Clinton couldn't win the seat shows it's out of reach for now. I'm also confident we'll see a temporary "dead cat bounce" with Republican performance with Cubans. Also, what do you think about FL-09 (Bill McCollum's old seat)? It's only D+3 (2012) but I think it swung left and it looks like it'll only continue to do so, but on paper it should be competitive with an IRL-like candidate in the right year, but maybe I'm a little optimistic.
And what about....
FL-06: DeSantis has it locked down, but it's only R+4 after redistricting and could flip in the right year.
FL-11: Webster is a lightning rod for controversy and has had unusually close calls. If Grayson runs Webster should make it but the right candidate can beat him, even if he/she goes down as a one-termer.

FL-11 is one of the reddest districts in Florida. I encourage Grayson to run there, so he doesn't screw up a statewide primary or attempt to primary Soto/Demings/Murphy, all of whom seem like they will be much better representatives than he was.

[Figueira]

With Michelle Lujan Grisham running for Governor, we'll have an open seat in NM-01. Anyone know who's running there?

[Hindsight was 2020]

As a NYer the Dems find someone to get rid of Peter King?!