If Hillary chose Brown instead of Kaine for VP, would she have won?
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  If Hillary chose Brown instead of Kaine for VP, would she have won?
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Author Topic: If Hillary chose Brown instead of Kaine for VP, would she have won?  (Read 1199 times)
drwho1
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« on: November 15, 2016, 12:43:11 PM »

One of the reasons Hillary didn't want Brown as VP was because she wanted a Senate majority and Brown would have given up his Ohio senate seat to a Republican - Hah, way to be presumptuous!

So, would Hillary have done better in Midwest states if she chose Brown from Ohio as VP?
She would have still lost Ohio imo, but maybe she might have kept the white blue-collar workers in WI and MI and western PA in the fold.

Would a Black VP like Booker increased AA turnout in Detroit, PHilly, and Milwakee and South FL?

Without Kaine, would Hillary have also lost Virginia?

Would a Latino VP like Castro helped her win FL?

Would she have chosen Evan Bayh if his name didn't rhyme with "Bye-Bye Clinton" that Trump would have used against her.

Basically, Hillary lost in a lot of swing states because there were too many swing states she couldn't personally appeal to without needing help from the VP.  (Obama did better in the midwest because his base of support was Chicago)
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2016, 12:47:39 PM »

I mean, the election shouldn't have been that close, but Kaine didn't deliver Virginia (she would have won it anyway), and while he didn't take anything away, he didn't help in any way, so you might be on to something.

Specifically with AA and/or Latino turnout/swing potentially being the difference.
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Figueira
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2016, 01:35:42 PM »

Maybe, but the Senate thing is still a problem. I actually think Kaine was a bad choice for this reason as well.
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bagelman
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« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2016, 03:12:18 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2020, 08:23:59 PM by bagelman »

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Bismarck
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2016, 03:54:29 PM »

I really doubt many people outside of Ohio would've cared and Ohio wouldn't have gone for Clinton either way.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2016, 06:13:49 PM »

I don't think the selection would have gotten enough attention to make a difference.
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drwho1
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2016, 12:06:18 PM »

I really doubt many people outside of Ohio would've cared and Ohio wouldn't have gone for Clinton either way.

but ohio shares a border and media market with Michigan and western PA.
So they might have been able to turnout voters in those states who stayed home.
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Beet
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2016, 12:16:35 PM »

If she had picked Brown, it would have indicated that she was running a campaign that didn't have its head so completely up its ass that it failed to recognize the importance of WWC votes in EV-rich Midwestern states, as well as the wisdom of giving an olive branch to the 43% of the party that voted for Bernie Sanders, and that this took precedence over whatever personal loyalty the Clinton's and their staff had to Virginia Democrats. So yes. Absolutely yes.
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Nym90
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« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2016, 12:47:28 PM »

If she had otherwise run the exact same campaign, then no. VP candidates only provide about a two point boost in their own home states and no discernible boost in neighboring states or throughout their home region.

But for the reasons Beet states, then yes, to the extent that Brown's nomination was part of a broader strategy of focusing on the Midwest and white non-college educated voters.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2016, 01:01:50 PM »

If she had otherwise run the exact same campaign, then no. VP candidates only provide about a two point boost in their own home states and no discernible boost in neighboring states or throughout their home region.

But for the reasons Beet states, then yes, to the extent that Brown's nomination was part of a broader strategy of focusing on the Midwest and white non-college educated voters.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2016, 01:21:26 PM »

Yes I believe so. Remember Kaine did pretty poorly against Pence in the debate.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2016, 01:22:30 PM »

No. We were doomed from the start.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2016, 02:02:14 PM »

A Brown pick could've been like Ford's actual selection of Dole, and Kaine is definitely like if Nelson Rockefeller had stayed on against Mondale.

So highly unlikely, but possibly.
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drwho1
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2016, 05:06:02 PM »

I feel that at least Pence helped in neighboring midwest states. 
They need to analyze the regional effect of VP on neighboring states
and not just the VP home state.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2016, 05:08:21 PM »

They need to analyze the regional effect of VP on neighboring states

I think you just triggered BRTD.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2016, 11:04:26 PM »

Of course not.

No VP selection could save Hillary from herself.

Generally, a VP pick has no effect on the ticket, unless they are found mid campaign to have been involved in scandal, or really blow it somehow.
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2016, 11:38:48 PM »

If she let Sherrod Brown change the direction of the campaign, perhaps.
If not, no.
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