Maryland 2018

[Kingpoleon]

Jeffrey Jones, a pastor who is pro-choice and says "we are all immigrants," Liz Matory, a 36/37-year old African-American with a MBA and graduated from Howard Law School who is pro-life~ish, endorsed Kasich, and supports campaign finance reform, and Chrys Kefalas, a gay attorney who was Ehrlich's legal counsel, and a former President of the National Association of Manufacturers, are all low name Maryland Republicans who may run for down ballot statewide office.

Democrats on the bench are Marilyn and Nick Mosby, Martin O'Malley, and John Sarbanes.

[Figueira]

Any chance Donna Edwards tries to make a comeback?

[Figueira]

Any chance Donna Edwards tries to make a comeback?

Edwards losing the primary this year was one of the most disappointing results of this cycle. What a waste of a seat.

I was rooting for her as well, but it's not like Chris Van Hollen is some kind of blue dog or even a generic Democrat.

[Suburbia]

Donna Edwards or former Attorney General Doug Gansler could beat Hogan/Rutherford in 2018. If not, Hogan will be reelected. He won't be a rising GOP star, though, maybe a future Cabinet position.

[Gass3268]

Delaney could take Hogan in a Trump midterm, but I doubt he will conclude it's worth the risk.  It's possible we get some random state legislator or non-politician narrowly winning just based on the state's partisan lean.

I've heard rumblings that Delaney is building a war chest to take on Hogan, Trump could take down Hogan just like Bush did to Ehrlich in 2006.

[Lothal1]

Hogan is still extremely popular at the moment. John Delaney has also made it clear he is NOT running.

[mds32]

I don't see why you guys keep saying that Hogan is vulnerable. I think Hogan is starting to become a household name that people don't want to throw out.

[Gass3268]

Hogan is still extremely popular at the moment. John Delaney has also made it clear he is NOT running.

So was Ehrlich in 06.

[mds32]

Hogan is still extremely popular at the moment. John Delaney has also made it clear he is NOT running.

So was Ehrlich in 06.

I see your point with that.

[Virginiá]

Quick search shows Ehrlich was not unpopular, but not overly popular in the months leading up to the 2006 midterms. It was somewhere between 47 - 53.

Meanwhile, Hogan seems to be constantly in the high-60s or low-70s. I'm not convinced he can be easily knocked off, and if he can, I imagine it would require an anti-Republican wave in 2018.

[Lothal1]

Take account the margins that Larry got in many rural areas.

[Frodo]

If Gov. Larry Hogan is re-elected in 2018, he will have significant influence over the 2020 redistricting cycle.  With his veto power, what's the likelihood that the 6th congressional district in western Maryland be redrawn back to what it was before Democrats in the legislature gerrymandered it to include Montgomery County?  

[Heisenberg]

If Gov. Larry Hogan is re-elected in 2018, he will have significant influence over the 2020 redistricting cycle.  With his veto power, what's the likelihood that the 6th congressional district in western Maryland be redrawn back to what it was before Democrats in the legislature gerrymandered it to include Montgomery County?  

There's also a pending lawsuit IIRC, so it may revert to its old form without Hogan, and maybe sooner.

[Virginiá]

If Gov. Larry Hogan is re-elected in 2018, with his veto power what's the likelihood that the 6th congressional district in western Maryland be redrawn back to what it was before Democrats in the legislature gerrymandered it to include Montgomery County?  

It won't make a difference. Maryland is a 60% override state and Democrats already have a supermajority now, albeit a slightly slimmer one. Keeping in mind that Maryland holds legislative elections every 4 years during each midterm, meaning MD Democrats have been whittled down by 2 GOP midterm waves in a row. 2018 will likely restore their numbers in the State House to pre-2014 levels, if not more. That means veto overrides will be even easier. Unfortunately, Hogan will have no real power in the next round of redistricting.

Only way to prevent such a configuration is via lawsuit.

[BuckeyeNut]

Could Tom Perez run since he isn't going into the cabinet any time soon?

[mds32]

If Gov. Larry Hogan is re-elected in 2018, with his veto power what's the likelihood that the 6th congressional district in western Maryland be redrawn back to what it was before Democrats in the legislature gerrymandered it to include Montgomery County?  

It won't make a difference. Maryland is a 60% override state and Democrats already have a supermajority now, albeit a slightly slimmer one. Keeping in mind that Maryland holds legislative elections every 4 years during each midterm, meaning MD Democrats have been whittled down by 2 GOP midterm waves in a row. 2018 will likely restore their numbers in the State House to pre-2014 levels, if not more. That means veto overrides will be even easier. Unfortunately, Hogan will have no real power in the next round of redistricting.

Only way to prevent such a configuration is via lawsuit.

Democrats actually grew their numbers in 2010 and then they fell back to their pre-2010 levels in 2014. I think that if Hogan wins by 52%+ he could knock off a few more Democrats down the ballot. I don't know how many the GOP would need, but I would think that one of the chambers is doable.

[Virginiá]

Democrats actually grew their numbers in 2010 and then they fell back to their pre-2010 levels in 2014. I think that if Hogan wins by 52%+ he could knock off a few more Democrats down the ballot. I don't know how many the GOP would need, but I would think that one of the chambers is doable.

The only remotely plausible option, imo, is the State House, and Republicans would need a net gain of 7 seats to just barely break the Democrats' supermajority.

Reducing Democrats to their smallest State House majority in over 80 years during a midterm of a most likely unpopular Trump presidency is a hell of an undertaking. It won't happen. My guess is that Democrats gain, as opinions of the incumbent president's party heavily influence state legislative races.

I think Hogan will probably win if he is still really popular, but more gains in the legislature seems highly unlikely.

[Jackschlotter]

Perez would give Hogan a run for his money if he would run.

[Soonerdem]

Democrats will always be competitive with any candidate just because of the high number of African Americans and liberal hacks in the suburbs their are in Maryland but I feel like hogan will do well as long as he doesn't get in too many fights with the state legislature.

[Xing]

Is Hogan definitely running for re-election?

[Lothal1]

Is Hogan definitely running for re-election?

Why would he not run for reelection?

[Xing]

Is Hogan definitely running for re-election?

Why would he not run for reelection?

I know that he had cancer last year, so I didn't think it was a given that he'd want to run again.

[swf541]

I expect Delaney to run and win, he has more crossover appeal than most other dems (only dem my father has ever voted for as far as i can remember)

[I’m not Stu]

I expect Delaney to run and win, he has more crossover appeal than most other dems (only dem my father has ever voted for as far as i can remember)

Will he run?