Israeli relations under Trump

[bagelman]

What direction will Trump steer Israeli relations?

[Cubby]

Hopefully he'll be more supportive of our closest ally in the region.

[Blue3]

He said in some debates that Obama was too biased in favor of Israel, and we need to be more objective.

I think he was forced to walk that back a little, and forced to say Jerusalem should be Israel's undivided capital, but who knows if that stuck or not.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

He said in some debates that Obama was too biased in favor of Israel, and we need to be more objective.

I think he was forced to walk that back a little, and forced to say Jerusalem should be Israel's undivided capital, but who knows if that stuck or not.

He never said Obama was too biased in favor of Israel, just that he would be a "neutral broker", which could mean all sorts of things.

I think he'll make a go of trying for a peace deal, but I expect him to be overall pro-Israel.

[DavidB.]

It is a big shot in the dark. He has said all sorts of things. Based on his past attitudes (always pro-Israel, always pro-Netanyahu) and the people that are likely to become his advisors and SoS, I actually expect a decent amount of continuity compared to the Obama administration, the big differences being that Trump and Netanyahu are on very good terms with one another and that the new U.S. administration will not cry as much about Jews building houses in Judea and Samaria as before, which will probably have a long-term impact (what with the 2SS?) and is likely to have implications on the PA/Fatah strategy as well (unilateral moves or new calls for violence may be in the cards). Until proven otherwise I do not expect big changes related to the location of the U.S. embassy or regarding the U.S-Israel financial agreements, though both are not at all impossible and there is a huge amount of uncertainty right now.

[ag]

The biggest impact will not be specifically about Israel, but will be very much felt by Israel. I strongly suspect that we are going into the nuclear proliferation age. By 2025 I expect, at least, Iran,  Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey and, possibly, Jordan, (some of the) UAE and Qatar to be fully nuclear - or, at least, have some sort of crude radiological weapons they could readily deploy (if Syria and Iraq are stabilized by then, they will be nuclear too). It is also not impossible that by then some crude nuclear weapons become available to non-state agents. In fact, an active market for such technologies and weapons seems extremely likely pretty soon. This will, obviously, radically affect power issues in the region.

[Hnv1]

Hopefully he forgets we exist, won't try forcing stupid futile negotiations, and hit AIPAC with everything he got

[Comrade Funk]

Would prove the Israeli government doesn't give a sh**t about antisemitism against American Jews.

[DavidB.]

Would prove the Israeli government doesn't give a sh**t about antisemitism against American Jews.

I find it interesting that you would come up with this reasoning. Aren't you someone who always argues that just because you're Jewish you do not necessarily have a connection with Israel? In that case, how can you possibly expect Israel to care about antisemitism against American Jews more than, say, Norway does?

IR 101: actors in international relations act in their own interest. Of course Netanyahu is not going to make a point out of Steve Bannon's appointment, and I can hardly blame him. What does he have to win by that?

[ag]

Would prove the Israeli government doesn't give a sh**t about antisemitism against American Jews.

I find it interesting that you would come up with this reasoning. Aren't you someone who always argues that just because you're Jewish you do not necessarily have a connection with Israel? In that case, how can you possibly expect Israel to care about antisemitism against American Jews more than, say, Norway does?

IR 101: actors in international relations act in their own interest. Of course Netanyahu is not going to make a point out of Steve Bannon's appointment, and I can hardly blame him. What does he have to win by that?

You are absolutely right. Israel is the state of the Israeli people: not a Jewish state. If anything, it is hostile to most Jews outside it. There is no reason for Israel to care for us, nor is there any reason for us to care about Israel. This is absolutely normal. I just wish everybody would be more open about it.

[Comrade Funk]

Would prove the Israeli government doesn't give a sh**t about antisemitism against American Jews.

I find it interesting that you would come up with this reasoning. Aren't you someone who always argues that just because you're Jewish you do not necessarily have a connection with Israel? In that case, how can you possibly expect Israel to care about antisemitism against American Jews more than, say, Norway does?

IR 101: actors in international relations act in their own interest. Of course Netanyahu is not going to make a point out of Steve Bannon's appointment, and I can hardly blame him. What does he have to win by that?

Netanyahu, the Israeli PM, has stated multiple times he speaks for the Jewish people. I don't agree with him, but he is in a much more public/powerful position than I. American Jews aren't realists btw (ignore Kissinger lol), and we don't care about IR when it comes to this. We care about not getting beat up by those who believe we're subhuman, Jihadist or Nazi or whatever.

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It would be very hypocritical to cozy up with an administration who have peddled the same antisemitic conspiracy theories neo-nazis do, yet claim you represent us. I already know the Israeli government doesn't represent us, but they will open a lot of eyes for the vast majority who voted against Trump.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think he'll make a go of trying for a peace deal, but I expect him to be overall pro-Israel.

There is no peace deal to be had but political optics means he has to look like he's seeking one. The same would have been true for Clinton had she won.

All I expect from Trump when it comes to Israeli/Palestinian issues is malign neglect.

[Santander]

Would prove the Israeli government doesn't give a sh**t about antisemitism against American Jews.

I find it interesting that you would come up with this reasoning. Aren't you someone who always argues that just because you're Jewish you do not necessarily have a connection with Israel? In that case, how can you possibly expect Israel to care about antisemitism against American Jews more than, say, Norway does?

IR 101: actors in international relations act in their own interest. Of course Netanyahu is not going to make a point out of Steve Bannon's appointment, and I can hardly blame him. What does he have to win by that?

You are absolutely right. Israel is the state of the Israeli people: not a Jewish state. If anything, it is hostile to most Jews outside it. There is no reason for Israel to care for us, nor is there any reason for us to care about Israel. This is absolutely normal. I just wish everybody would be more open about it.

How disgusting can you get?

[DavidB.]

You are absolutely right. Israel is the state of the Israeli people: not a Jewish state. If anything, it is hostile to most Jews outside it. There is no reason for Israel to care for us, nor is there any reason for us to care about Israel. This is absolutely normal. I just wish everybody would be more open about it.

To be clear, I obviously don't agree with that viewpoint, but Comrade Funk does.

[ag]

Would prove the Israeli government doesn't give a sh**t about antisemitism against American Jews.

I find it interesting that you would come up with this reasoning. Aren't you someone who always argues that just because you're Jewish you do not necessarily have a connection with Israel? In that case, how can you possibly expect Israel to care about antisemitism against American Jews more than, say, Norway does?

IR 101: actors in international relations act in their own interest. Of course Netanyahu is not going to make a point out of Steve Bannon's appointment, and I can hardly blame him. What does he have to win by that?

You are absolutely right. Israel is the state of the Israeli people: not a Jewish state. If anything, it is hostile to most Jews outside it. There is no reason for Israel to care for us, nor is there any reason for us to care about Israel. This is absolutely normal. I just wish everybody would be more open about it.

How disgusting can you get?

What is so disgusting? That I have no loyalty to a state I have never been to?

[ag]

You are absolutely right. Israel is the state of the Israeli people: not a Jewish state. If anything, it is hostile to most Jews outside it. There is no reason for Israel to care for us, nor is there any reason for us to care about Israel. This is absolutely normal. I just wish everybody would be more open about it.

To be clear, I obviously don't agree with that viewpoint, but Comrade Funk does.

It was clear enough even without this

[ag]

Again, what I think everybody is ignoring is that the most important consequence of Trump´s administration for Israel will not be anything that is done with Israel in mind. Trump will provoke massive nuclear proliferation throughout the world: and, of course, Middle East will get its share. Israelis have to hope it all stays within state control: at least, that would lend itself to some sort of containment. But I have a hunch, nukes will become normal part of all sort of rogue group tactical arsenal before long.

[I’m not Stu]

Again, what I think everybody is ignoring is that the most important consequence of Trump´s administration for Israel will not be anything that is done with Israel in mind. Trump will provoke massive nuclear proliferation throughout the world: and, of course, Middle East will get its share. Israelis have to hope it all stays within state control: at least, that would lend itself to some sort of containment. But I have a hunch, nukes will become normal part of all sort of rogue group tactical arsenal before long.

I hope not. That would be very bad news for Israel. The UN caught Iran violating the terms of the weak nuclear deal.

[ag]

Again, what I think everybody is ignoring is that the most important consequence of Trump´s administration for Israel will not be anything that is done with Israel in mind. Trump will provoke massive nuclear proliferation throughout the world: and, of course, Middle East will get its share. Israelis have to hope it all stays within state control: at least, that would lend itself to some sort of containment. But I have a hunch, nukes will become normal part of all sort of rogue group tactical arsenal before long.

I hope not. That would be very bad news for Israel. The UN caught Iran violating the terms of the weak nuclear deal.

It would be bad not only for Israel. But, alas, Trump election makes it nearly inevitable. Once proliferation starts, it will go all the way. Expect South Sudan exchanging nuclear strikes with Central Africa, ising bombs both buy at a Cairo bazar.

[I’m not Stu]

Would prove the Israeli government doesn't give a sh**t about antisemitism against American Jews.

I find it interesting that you would come up with this reasoning. Aren't you someone who always argues that just because you're Jewish you do not necessarily have a connection with Israel? In that case, how can you possibly expect Israel to care about antisemitism against American Jews more than, say, Norway does?

IR 101: actors in international relations act in their own interest. Of course Netanyahu is not going to make a point out of Steve Bannon's appointment, and I can hardly blame him. What does he have to win by that?

You are absolutely right. Israel is the state of the Israeli people: not a Jewish state. If anything, it is hostile to most Jews outside it. There is no reason for Israel to care for us, nor is there any reason for us to care about Israel. This is absolutely normal. I just wish everybody would be more open about it.

Are you anti-Israel? That sounds "anti-Zionist".

[Mike67]

The US will be friendlier toward Israel under President Trump and the two State plan gets shoved in the drawer.

[ag]

Would prove the Israeli government doesn't give a sh**t about antisemitism against American Jews.

I find it interesting that you would come up with this reasoning. Aren't you someone who always argues that just because you're Jewish you do not necessarily have a connection with Israel? In that case, how can you possibly expect Israel to care about antisemitism against American Jews more than, say, Norway does?

IR 101: actors in international relations act in their own interest. Of course Netanyahu is not going to make a point out of Steve Bannon's appointment, and I can hardly blame him. What does he have to win by that?

You are absolutely right. Israel is the state of the Israeli people: not a Jewish state. If anything, it is hostile to most Jews outside it. There is no reason for Israel to care for us, nor is there any reason for us to care about Israel. This is absolutely normal. I just wish everybody would be more open about it.

Are you anti-Israel? That sounds "anti-Zionist".

I am not a Zionist. I am not anti-Israel per se: not any more than I am anti-Ghana or anti-Slovakia. After 70 years Israel has as much legitimacy as any other country on earth. But, as a Jew, I refuse to acknowledge their Jewishness.

[ag]

The US will be friendlier toward Israel under President Trump and the two State plan gets shoved in the drawer.

Which, pretty much implies, that Israel will cease to exist as a self-proclaimed Jewish state within a generation.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The US will be friendlier toward Israel under President Trump and the two State plan gets shoved in the drawer.

Which, pretty much implies, that Israel will cease to exist as a self-proclaimed Jewish state within a generation.

Not necessarily. It could end up abandoning democracy instead. Besides, the two state plan, while I think it is the only viable path to a peaceful Middle East that includes a democratic Jewish State of Israel, is simply not implementable at present. Neither side believes the other is willing to do what would be needed or that even if it were willing, that it could deliver that. It awaits a new generation of leadership on both sides before progress could possibly be made beyond the bandaids that diplomacy can presently achieve.

[ag]

The US will be friendlier toward Israel under President Trump and the two State plan gets shoved in the drawer.

Which, pretty much implies, that Israel will cease to exist as a self-proclaimed Jewish state within a generation.

Not necessarily. It could end up abandoning democracy instead. Besides, the two state plan, while I think it is the only viable path to a peaceful Middle East that includes a democratic Jewish State of Israel, is simply not implementable at present. Neither side believes the other is willing to do what would be needed or that even if it were willing, that it could deliver that. It awaits a new generation of leadership on both sides before progress could possibly be made beyond the bandaids that diplomacy can presently achieve.

I agree, it is not implementable at present. This is why I do not expect the fiction of the "Jewish" state to last even in name (once again, I disagree that Israel has ever been a Jewish state, but that is another matter).