Potenial 2018 Rematches?

[publicunofficial]

Trying to put together some early House race ratings for 2018, and came to the question of which Dem recruits should try again in 2018. Very few of them ended up even getting close to winning, but it's not 100% clear how much that could be attributed to the quality of their campaigns, or just the bad environment for Democrats this year. Republican candidates can be mentioned here too.


My guesses:


Zephyr Teachout (NY-19) - Actually ran ahead of Hillary, but Trump put up massive numbers in upstate NY.

Brad Ashford (NE-02) - Only Dem incumbent that lost this year.

Doug Applegate (CA-49) - Votes are still being counted, but it Applegate looks to have lost by a very thin margin. Could run again this year, though the newfound competitiveness of this district could draw a stronger challenger in the Dem primary.

Pete Gallego (TX-23) - Very surprised he lost, but he's still probably the strongest Dem recruit in this must-win seat.

Angie Craig (MN-02) - Another surprising close loss. Craig might do better in a Dem-leaning midterm.


Annette Tadeo (FL-26) - Lost in the primary to Joe Garcia. Might be worth another shot, but seems to have a habit of losing elections.

Crescent Hardy (NV-04) - If Democrats continue to have midterm turnout problems in Nevada, Hardy could have a good shot at returning to the House.

Teri Bonoff (MN-03) - Still probably the best recruit for this seat.


Candidates who SHOULDN'T try again:

Stewart Mills (MN-08)
Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Randy Perkins (FL-18)
Paul Babeau (AZ-01)
Matt Heinz (AZ-02)
Monica Vernon (IA-01)
Emilio Huerta (CA-21)
Danny Tarkanian (NV-03)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dems need someone better than Gallego for that district. Clinton did about 2% better than Obama '12 in the state, but Gallego did about 1.3% worse than he did in 2014. I'm not sure who the ideal candidate is, but it's not Gallego. I say this as a very enthusiastic supporter of Gallego.

[Young Conservative]

Democrats should be terrified at the thin margins their strong candidates won by in most Minnesota districts and scared that Trump won Iowa's lone district represented by a democrat, a democrat who won by less than Rod Blum won his district. Dave Loebsack.

[Figueira]

There's always Guinta.

I don't think Applegate should run again if he indeed lost this time. Didn't he have some scandals?

Also, Emily Cain shouldn't run again either.

And yeah, Democrats did terribly in rural white areas this year, which explains the Minnesota and Iowa problems.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democrats should be terrified at the thin margins their strong candidates won by in most Minnesota districts and scared that Trump won Iowa's lone district represented by a democrat, a democrat who won by less than Rod Blum won his district. Dave Loebsack.

MN-08 is always close. Peterson (MN-07) has the troubles of running in a district that doesn't vote for any up ballot democrat except Klobuchar in '12. But the first district result is definitely worrying for dems.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Not a "rematch" per se but is there any chance Joe Heck could go for his old seat in 2018?

[publicunofficial]

Democrats should be terrified at the thin margins their strong candidates won by in most Minnesota districts and scared that Trump won Iowa's lone district represented by a democrat, a democrat who won by less than Rod Blum won his district. Dave Loebsack.

That's not the topic of this thread but thank you for your contribution

[publicunofficial]

Not a "rematch" per se but is there any chance Joe Heck could go for his old seat in 2018?

Perhaps. But it's never fun to come slinking back to your old seat after getting beat for your promotion. Very few ever do it (Steve Pearce in 2010 is the first to come to mind).

If we mention Heck, then I should also say it might be possible for Patrick Murphy in FL-18 as well, considering how popular he was in that seat.

Hell, maybe even bring Bruce Braley back to run in IA-01. That 2014 loss is looking less and less like Braley's fault, in hindsight.

[Maxwell]

Not a "rematch" per se but is there any chance Joe Heck could go for his old seat in 2018?

Perhaps. But it's never fun to come slinking back to your old seat after getting beat for your promotion. Very few ever do it (Steve Pearce in 2010 is the first to come to mind).

If we mention Heck, then I should also say it might be possible for Patrick Murphy in FL-18 as well, considering how popular he was in that seat.

Hell, maybe even bring Bruce Braley back to run in IA-01. That 2014 loss is looking less and less like Braley's fault, in hindsight.

Heck running for his seat again would probably would require Rosen trying to go for the big promotion - which I doubt will be the case. Brian Mast doesn't strike me as an Allan West type, so Murphy will have a tough time with Mast being the incumbent. And lol, Braley officially killed any chance he had in Iowa politics with the embarrassment of a campaign he ran in 2014.

[publicunofficial]

Not a "rematch" per se but is there any chance Joe Heck could go for his old seat in 2018?

Perhaps. But it's never fun to come slinking back to your old seat after getting beat for your promotion. Very few ever do it (Steve Pearce in 2010 is the first to come to mind).

If we mention Heck, then I should also say it might be possible for Patrick Murphy in FL-18 as well, considering how popular he was in that seat.

Hell, maybe even bring Bruce Braley back to run in IA-01. That 2014 loss is looking less and less like Braley's fault, in hindsight.

Heck running for his seat again would probably would require Rosen trying to go for the big promotion - which I doubt will be the case. Brian Mast doesn't strike me as an Allan West type, so Murphy will have a tough time with Mast being the incumbent. And lol, Braley officially killed any chance he had in Iowa politics with the embarrassment of a campaign he ran in 2014.

Brian Mast actually IS somewhat of an Allen West type. He's more of a legit war hero (Whereas West spent his time in service beating Iraqi policemen), but he's a lock to join the Freedom Caucus.

[JMT]

I could potentially see a Charlie Crist - David Jolly rematch

[socaldem]

Candidates who SHOULDN'T try again:

Stewart Mills (MN-08)
Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Randy Perkins (FL-18)
Paul Babeau (AZ-01)
Matt Heinz (AZ-02)
Monica Vernon (IA-01)
Emilio Huerta (CA-21)
Danny Tarkanian (NV-03)

What's wrong with Matt Heinz (AZ-02)? He made it close.

Not really a rematch but Denise Juneau (D) should give it another go in Montana next year when it's an open seat and Zinke tries a run for senate. It's unfortunate that even though Bullock was reelected, Dems were wiped out of other statewide offices.

Also, maybe Myers (D) in NY-22, although her result wasn't all that impressive.

[PAK Man]

Not a "rematch" per se but is there any chance Joe Heck could go for his old seat in 2018?

Perhaps. But it's never fun to come slinking back to your old seat after getting beat for your promotion. Very few ever do it (Steve Pearce in 2010 is the first to come to mind).

If we mention Heck, then I should also say it might be possible for Patrick Murphy in FL-18 as well, considering how popular he was in that seat.

Hell, maybe even bring Bruce Braley back to run in IA-01. That 2014 loss is looking less and less like Braley's fault, in hindsight.

I'm pretty sure Braley moved to Colorado. And that "farmer from Iowa" remark will haunt him until the day he dies. The sad thing is, what he said was true; Chuck Grassley is a farmer from Iowa with no law degree. But he shouldn't have said it the way it actually came out. It sounded like he was disparaging farmers, which is a HUGE no-no in Iowa.

The problems with Iowa Democrats stem from the fact that Hillary Clinton was at the top of the ticket. Iowans HATE her - even Iowa Democrats hate her. Do you know how many of my Iowa Democratic friends voted for Gary Johnson instead? Quite a few.

As for the topic at hand, I definitely think Denise Juneau should run again. She's not a bad candidate, she was just running in a bad year. I agree that if Zinke challenges Tester, she should go for it. An open seat would be better for a Democrat, anyway.

I'm torn on whether or not Bob Dold will run again. Part of me thinks he won't, because there's three competitive statewide D-held offices in Illinois next year (SoS, which is open for the first time since 1998; Comptroller and Treasurer, which Democrats just BARELY won in 2014). On the other hand, I'm not a huge fan of Schneider, either. But I also don't want IL-10 to become NH-01.

Honestly, I really liked Steve Lindbeck's campaign against Don Young, too. I wouldn't be upset if he tried again.

I can see Hardy trying again to unseat Kihuen as well.

[Zioneer]

Doug Owens in UT-04 shouldn't try again, and probably won't. Which is unfortunate, because he was still probably one of our best candidates against Mia Love.

I do hope Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams gives it a try, he could potentially win, and in 2018 it'd be a free shot since he just won re-election this year.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Candidates who SHOULDN'T try again:

Stewart Mills (MN-08)
Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Randy Perkins (FL-18)
Paul Babeau (AZ-01)
Matt Heinz (AZ-02)
Monica Vernon (IA-01)
Emilio Huerta (CA-21)
Danny Tarkanian (NV-03)

What's wrong with Matt Heinz (AZ-02)? He made it close.

AZ-02 2014
Martha Mcsally: 50.0%
Ron Barber: 49.9%


AZ-02 2016
Martha Mcsally: 56.7%
Matt Heinz: 43.3%


Matt Heinz is a bad fit for the district unfortunately. He got blown out. He should return to the state legislature. Maybe he could run for Grijalva's seat when he retires...

[JerryArkansas]

Candidates who SHOULDN'T try again:

Stewart Mills (MN-08)
Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Randy Perkins (FL-18)
Paul Babeau (AZ-01)
Matt Heinz (AZ-02)
Monica Vernon (IA-01)
Emilio Huerta (CA-21)
Danny Tarkanian (NV-03)

What's wrong with Matt Heinz (AZ-02)? He made it close.

AZ-02 2014
Martha Mcsally: 50.0%
Ron Barber: 49.9%


AZ-02 2016
Martha Mcsally: 56.7%
Matt Heinz: 43.3%


Matt Heinz is a bad fit for the district unfortunately. He got blown out. He should return to the state legislature. Maybe he could run for Grijalva's seat when he retires...

At the same time you are comparing two different campaigns.  McSally ran as an incumbent this time round.  She was going to have a bounce due to that.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Candidates who SHOULDN'T try again:

Stewart Mills (MN-08)
Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Randy Perkins (FL-18)
Paul Babeau (AZ-01)
Matt Heinz (AZ-02)
Monica Vernon (IA-01)
Emilio Huerta (CA-21)
Danny Tarkanian (NV-03)

What's wrong with Matt Heinz (AZ-02)? He made it close.

AZ-02 2014
Martha Mcsally: 50.0%
Ron Barber: 49.9%


AZ-02 2016
Martha Mcsally: 56.7%
Matt Heinz: 43.3%


Matt Heinz is a bad fit for the district unfortunately. He got blown out. He should return to the state legislature. Maybe he could run for Grijalva's seat when he retires...

At the same time you are comparing two different campaigns.  McSally ran as an incumbent this time round.  She was going to have a bounce due to that.

But 10 points?

Matt Heinz is pretty liberal, and I got quite a few mailers from the McSally campaign that attacked him pretty effectively(there were probably other things like that that I didn't see as well). I saw nothing from Matt Heinz's campaign. He was easily painted as an out of touch head in the clouds liberal who loved Obamacare and wanted to teach 5 year olds about sex(an attack based on a bill he helped sponsor during his time in the state. Grossly miscontextualized and deceptive, of course, but it probably worked).

His campaign was ineffective, and that really hurt him. I suspect he would be damaged by this run if he chose to run again. AZ-02 seems to be a blue dog seat. I don't think a better nominee would have won, but it wouldn't have been this bad.

[Maxwell]

Candidates who SHOULDN'T try again:

Stewart Mills (MN-08)
Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Randy Perkins (FL-18)
Paul Babeau (AZ-01)
Matt Heinz (AZ-02)
Monica Vernon (IA-01)
Emilio Huerta (CA-21)
Danny Tarkanian (NV-03)

What's wrong with Matt Heinz (AZ-02)? He made it close.

Not really a rematch but Denise Juneau (D) should give it another go in Montana next year when it's an open seat and Zinke tries a run for senate. It's unfortunate that even though Bullock was reelected, Dems were wiped out of other statewide offices.

Also, maybe Myers (D) in NY-22, although her result wasn't all that impressive.

Myers probably would've won if it weren't for Babinec.

[jamestroll]

Doug Owens in UT-04 shouldn't try again, and probably won't. Which is unfortunate, because he was still probably one of our best candidates against Mia Love.

I do hope Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams gives it a try, he could potentially win, and in 2018 it'd be a free shot since he just won re-election this year.

I was surprised.. Doug Owens could not even carry the Salt Lake County part of the district .

But to be fair, he did not run as good of a campaign this time around, and he did not really give voters a good reason to vote for him.

[publicunofficial]

Matt Heinz was also a very bad fundraiser.

[Vega]

Doug Owens in UT-04 shouldn't try again, and probably won't. Which is unfortunate, because he was still probably one of our best candidates against Mia Love.

I do hope Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams gives it a try, he could potentially win, and in 2018 it'd be a free shot since he just won re-election this year.

I was surprised.. Doug Owens could not even carry the Salt Lake County part of the district .

But to be fair, he did not run as good of a campaign this time around, and he did not really give voters a good reason to vote for him.

I think he thought that just getting 46% of the vote in 2014 during a Republican wave, and then this being a Presidential election would automatically carry him to victory. If there was ever a year he could have won on paper though, it is 2016.