Biggest surprise state each election
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Author Topic: Biggest surprise state each election  (Read 1792 times)
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Computer89
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« on: November 15, 2016, 09:10:22 PM »
Ill Go from 1980 on

1980-  Reagan winning Massachusetts
1984 - Reagan winning New York
1988- Dukakis winning Wisconsin
1992- Clinton winning Vermont
1996- Clinton winning Florida
2000- Bush winning West Virginia
2004- None
2008- Obama winning Indiana
2012- None
2016- Trump winning Michigan
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2016, 09:26:32 PM »
2008- Obama winning Indiana
2012- Obama winning Florida (I always viewed Romney's base as 235 EV)
2016- Trump winning Michigan
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2016, 11:44:35 PM »
2000 FL
2004 OH
2016 Pennsylvania
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buritobr
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2016, 04:54:34 PM »
What do you mean by "surprise"? Comparing to the eve's polls or comparing to the previous election?

If you compare to the eve's polls, Clinton's victory in Vermont in 1992 was not a surprise.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2016, 03:42:26 PM »
Since WWII

1948: Truman taking California
1952: Ike taking Louisiana
1956: Stevenson taking Missouri
1960: Nixon winning California (even with the home-state thing)
1964: LBJ taking Utah
1968: Humphrey taking Washington
1972: Nixon carrying Minnesota
1976: Ford winning Virginia
1980: Reagan winning Arkansas
1984: Mondale winning Minnesota (yes even with the home-state thing)
1988: Bush winning Maryland
1992: Clinton winning Montana
1996: Dole winning Colorado
2000: Bush winning New Hampshire
2004: Bush winning New Mexico
2008: Obama taking Indiana
2012: Romney retaining North Carolina
2016: Trump taking Michigan
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2016, 02:44:16 PM »
1984-MA for Reagan
1988-PA for Bush
1992-NH for Clinton
1996-AZ for Clinton
2000-none
2004-NH for Kerry
2008-IN for Obama
2012-FL for Obama
2016-MI for Trump (pending a possible recount)
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AGA
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2016, 06:36:51 PM »
2000: West Virginia
2004: Wisconsin
2008: Indiana
2012: Florida
2016: Michigan
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2016, 03:41:35 AM »
Michigan was the biggest surprise compared to 2012. But I figured trade would hurt Hillary a lot there, so I found Wisconsin to be more surprising.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2016, 11:52:11 PM »
Wisconsin strikes me as more surprising, frankly. 1984 vs. 1988.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2016, 10:56:52 AM »
Wisconsin was more surprising in my opinion.
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Beet
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« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2016, 02:06:39 PM »
2008- Indiana
2012- Florida

2016- Pennsylvania or California. I was not surprised by Wisconsin since Clinton was terrible for the state, and Michigan I just had a bad feeling about it. But PA I thought she would pull it out due to the huge number of polls showing her ahead. CA - 4 million votes! I didn't think she could beat Obama's margin there.
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Kempros
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2016, 02:18:09 AM »
I also agree that WI was a bigger suprise than MI, since Clinton never visited WI since the convention, but she did stop multiple times in MI.
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Make My Bank Account Great Again
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2016, 11:04:23 AM »
Quote from: Silent Cal on November 29, 2016, 10:56:52 AM
Wisconsin was more surprising in my opinion.
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2016, 06:03:24 PM »
2008: In retrospect, Indiana
2012: Florida
2016: Pennsylvania
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