More Unexpected:West Virginia in 2000 , Michigan 2016

[OSR stands with Israel]

I go with West Virginia as that was a state what went to clinton by 15 points in 1996, the dems controlled all the house seats, and the senate seats and had even gone for dems in years  as bad as 1980 and 1988.

[Nichlemn]

The polls and narrative favoured Bush in WV. So it wasn't a surprise come Election Day, though it may have been had you asked the question in November 1996.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Michigan proved to be a surprise in both the Primary & Presidential elections. That'll be the state studied the most from this election

[jaichind]

Frankly WI 2016 is the most unexpected

[Vosem]

Definitely Michigan 2016 based on pre-election polling, since people knew that Bush was on track to carry WV. More longer-term, if you asked somebody in November 2012 whether Michigan could vote R in 2016, they'd probably say yes (generic R landslide), while asking someone in November 1996 if West Virginia could vote R would probably get you some amount of folks saying no, considering even Dukakis won it in 1988.

Though nobody in 2012 would've foreseen the juxtaposition of CO and VA going Democratic while MI goes R. And certainly nobody in 1996 (when WV was still more Democratic than CA, for the record) would've suggested WV going R even as swing or lean-R states like PA and NM go D.

[SingingAnalyst]

Both were unexpected, but WV Dem strength had been fading since 1988 relative to the national average. MI on the other hand was solidly 3 points more Dem than the nation from 1996 to 2012.