The Republican Split

[True Democrat]

1988:

Early in the election, it appears Bush may be heading for an easy win, especially with Dukakis' choice for no-name Clinton for Vice-President.  Dukakis is hoping to appeal to Moderate Republicans with Clinton because of Clinton's centrist views on economics.  However, Dukakis has already lost too many conservative Democrats to the newly founded "Religious Right".  However, about 3 weeks before election day, President Reagan comes out with a statement declaring that the Republican Party must fight for religious values, including allowing the Ten Commandments to be displayed, a stop to abortion, and he even implies that prayer should be brought back into public schools.  Vice-President Bush is standing right next to him as he makes this address.  Reagan believed that Bush had the election in the bag.  Many Moderate Republicans decide to support Dukakis because of social issues.  Then, on the Friday before the election, Ron Paul makes a very surprising endorsement of Dukakis and drops out of the race.  This confirms that the race could be won by either candidate, however going into election day Bush still has the advantage.  Bush ends up winning, however Dukakis' voters show an emergence to a backlash against the religious right.  This gives him states like South Dakota, Montana, and Missouri (where he wins big in the richer suburbs, but loses up north).  Even Kansas is fairly close.  However, Clinton fails to deliver Arkansas.

Bush/Quayle: 49.87%, 278 electoral votes
Dukakis/Clinton: 49.62%, 260 electoral votes
Other: 0.51%

[George W. Hobbes]

You have no idea that three-quarters of the country *today* supports the Ten Commandments and school prayer, do you?

[jokerman]

You have no idea that three-quarters of the country *today* supports the Ten Commandments and school prayer, do you?

Yeah.  It's unbelievable how out of touch some people at this forum are.

[Speed of Sound]

You have no idea that three-quarters of the country *today* supports the Ten Commandments and school prayer, do you?

yeah, it unbelievable how 3/4 of the country is.

[True Democrat]

You have no idea that three-quarters of the country *today* supports the Ten Commandments and school prayer, do you?

I know that much of the nation (not 75%!! I believe) supports these, but with a coalition of many moderate Republicans and lifelong Democrats (of which some support school prayer and the Ten Commandments).  With this coalition, Dukakis can do pretty well.  Don't underestimate the power Moderate Republicans held back then and today even.

[Sam Spade]

You have no idea that three-quarters of the country *today* supports the Ten Commandments and school prayer, do you?

I know that much of the nation (not 75%!! I believe) supports these, but with a coalition of many moderate Republicans and lifelong Democrats (of which some support school prayer and the Ten Commandments).  With this coalition, Dukakis can do pretty well.  Don't underestimate the power Moderate Republicans held back then and today even.

Dukakis tried to appeal to lifelong Democrats and moderate Republicans with his pick of Lloyd Bentsen, who represented a much more successful version of what Bill Clinton would have been in 1988. (I watched his speech at the 1988 DNC, he was godawful).  Look at how far it got Dukakis.

Dukakis was probably the second-worst nominee the Democrats have put up in modern times, only bested by McGovern.  I would argue that even Mondale was better than he was.

Ron Paul's impact on the race would be something close to nil.

The idea that Missouri, Colorado or Kansas (which is presently trying to get creationism back in the schools) is going to switch because of a "hard-right" religious agenda is humorous, to say the least.

The scenario is not really credible.

[True Democrat]

You have no idea that three-quarters of the country *today* supports the Ten Commandments and school prayer, do you?

I know that much of the nation (not 75%!! I believe) supports these, but with a coalition of many moderate Republicans and lifelong Democrats (of which some support school prayer and the Ten Commandments).  With this coalition, Dukakis can do pretty well.  Don't underestimate the power Moderate Republicans held back then and today even.

Dukakis tried to appeal to lifelong Democrats and moderate Republicans with his pick of Lloyd Bentsen, who represented a much more successful version of what Bill Clinton would have been in 1988. (I watched his speech at the 1988 DNC, he was godawful).  Look at how far it got Dukakis.

Dukakis was probably the second-worst nominee the Democrats have put up in modern times, only bested by McGovern.  I would argue that even Mondale was better than he was.

Ron Paul's impact on the race would be something close to nil.

The idea that Missouri, Colorado or Kansas (which is presently trying to get creationism back in the schools) is going to switch because of a "hard-right" religious agenda is humorous, to say the least.

The scenario is not really credible.

First of all, these scenarios are not made to be really that serious, so keep that in mind.  Also, Missouri and Colorado could be swung in this way.  In Kansas, the Religious Right didn't really appear until the early 90s.  Kansas actually had a lot of moderate Republicans in power.  In 1990, they actually elected a Democratic majority in the House.  I'm reading What's the Matter with Kansas (I know, it's partisan, but so what) and the author really talks about this.  For example, the moderate wing of Republicans was strong enough in 2002 to put Kathleen Sabelius in the Governor's mansion.

[George W. Hobbes]

True, I *am* a moderate Republican.

(And yeah, it's about three-quarters.  85 for the Commandments, and 60-70something for school prayer.  Both have been taken out by the black-robed minority of Americans....about five or six on the Supreme Court. )