Democrats will lose in 2020

[Devout Centrist]

Calling it right now, the Democratic Party will not win back the White House in 2020. It just won't happen.

[Beet]

Why not?

[Devout Centrist]

Why not?

I'm not very hopeful for the future of a divided party that can't win against an imbecile. I don't foresee a bright future for the party.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think this country is moving in a decidedly authoritarian and nationalist path that will leave many minorities and some conservatives behind.

[Figueira]

We have no idea what things will be like in 2020.

[jaichind]

Since 1992 the Dems won the popular vote 6 times to GOP 1.  Regression toward the mean seems to indicate GOP should win the popular vote in 2020 which also means GOP wins.  That is if one believes in regression toward the mean for elections. 

[Ronnie]

The pendulum of politics in this country swings back and forth much faster than you think.  Just four years ago, we reelected the first black president, and just now, we elected someone who is his opposite temperamentally, intellectually, and politically.  Once the people who elected Trump realize that he won't do anything for them, it's possible they'll swing quickly back to Democrats, at least on the downballot level.

Keep in mind that Trump will most likely be the most unpopular incoming president ever.  I do think he may still win reelection, depending on the direction of the Democratic Party, but there are so many variables that you can't just wave the white flag this early.

[Mr. Smith]

Why not?

I'm not very hopeful for the future of a divided party that can't win against an imbecile (A) trailer trash peanut farmers  (B) a nitwit dolt who put an imbecile as his vice president. I don't foresee a bright future for the party.

4 years after that depending on A) or B), Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton proved such statements wrong.

[Confused Democrat]

Why not?

I'm not very hopeful for the future of a divided party that can't win against an imbecile. I don't foresee a bright future for the party.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think this country is moving in a decidedly authoritarian and nationalist path that will leave many minorities and some conservatives behind.

You were wrong about this election, so I'm going to wager that you will also be wrong in 2020.

[RaphaelDLG]

Trump will have the huge advantage of incumbency.

Of course, he will also have the huge disadvantage of being an inevitably crooked moron.

[Frodo]

Why not?

I'm not very hopeful for the future of a divided party that can't win against an imbecile. I don't foresee a bright future for the party.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think this country is moving in a decidedly authoritarian and nationalist path that will leave many minorities and some conservatives behind.

You sound about as overwrought as my father who is foreseeing that we are about to see a return to the late 19th century as our social safety net is peeled back.

[Orser67]

Normally the incumbent has an advantage, but I think Trump is going to have a really hard time winning in 2020 when his favorables are already so bad and when the Republicans are likely to pursue such a huge agenda (which is in turn likely to spark a huge backlash).

[Maxwell]

Didn't we think Obama has 0% shot at winning re-election in 2012 because i mean the economy so bad and he's so unpopular folks? Let's wait and see how 2018 turns out before we cry our eyes out.

[Lief 🗽]

Generally, unless they face a very poor economy, incumbent presidents in the modern era win re-election.

[Figueira]

Generally, unless they face a very poor economy, incumbent presidents in the modern era win re-election.

I suspect we will have a poor economy in 2020; the only way it won't hurt Trump is if the recession starts before January 20, 2017.

[Person Man]

Didn't we think Obama has 0% shot at winning re-election in 2012 because i mean the economy so bad and he's so unpopular folks? Let's wait and see how 2018 turns out before we cry our eyes out.

Well, he was elected at the start of a business cycle. He was elected at the end. I think the only reason W kept Congress was because of 9/11. I think he still would have won without but probably by not as much.

[Enduro]

We have no idea what things will be like in 2020.

Exactly.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Yeah, because half the party thinks these swing white voters will enthusiastically vote for a movement socialist.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Yeah, because half the party thinks these swing white voters will enthusiastically vote for a movement socialist.

We would so long as it's not a cult.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

swing voters

haha

[ApatheticAustrian]

if trump is able to push through his infra-trillion, a recession would be postponed anyway.

[tallguy23]

Who would have predicted in 2004 that we'd elect the first black president 4 years later.

Who could have predicted in 2012 that Trump would be elected president 4 years later.

For all we know, Cher could be president in 2020. Let's not make predictions now.

[jamestroll]

I will make this bold prediction, which I know I will be correct on!

Democrats will have a good night in one of the next several elections.

[sentinel]

I will make a bold prediction:

This forum will have existed prior to January 2020.

[Frodo]

If Dick Morris predicts the same, will you then change your mind?

[Person Man]

if trump is able to push through his infra-trillion, a recession would be postponed anyway.

The big risk for him is a commodities bubble due to tariffs that pops and lets Dems rebound in the farm states and swing Texas for good.  I doubt it would pop within 4 years, though.  

A reccesion cost the Rs in 1982, but the recovery was already under way by 1984. We almo must remeber that we have been expanding for 7.5 years.


If Trump turns out to be a typical modern President, he will lose Congress. The last one to hold on to all of the Government was FDR and the last Republican, Grant. It seems the key for the GOP in the past was to keep changing guys.