In Virginia, 2016 Congressional Candidates under-performed Clinton MASSIVELY
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  In Virginia, 2016 Congressional Candidates under-performed Clinton MASSIVELY
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Author Topic: In Virginia, 2016 Congressional Candidates under-performed Clinton MASSIVELY  (Read 952 times)
Maxwell
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« on: November 16, 2016, 04:53:41 PM »

Don't believe me, take a look:

CD-1 - Trump by 12, Wittman by 23
CD-2 - Trump by 3, Taylor by 23 (!!!)
CD-3 - Clinton by 32, Scott by 34
CD-4 - Clinton by 21, McEachin by 16
CD-5 - Trump by 11, Garrett by 17
CD-6 - Trump by 25, Goodlatte by 33
CD-7 - Trump by 6 (!!!), Brat by 15
CD-8 - Clinton by 52, Beyer by 41
CD-9 - Trump by 41, Griffith by 40
CD-10 - Clinton (D) by 10, Comstock (R) by 6

Not calculating CD-11 because Connolly (D) ran for re-election un-opposed and thus would throw off the average.

Only two places did Democrat congresscritters over-perform - CD-3 and CD-8, both a big who cares cause both are incredibly safe districts. Now normally you could say "well yes, that's because incumbents", but the biggest over-performance was not from Barbara Comstock as you might expect - it was from non-incumbent Scott Taylor, who ran a whopping 20 points ahead of Trump's unimpressive win in the Virginia Beach District.

On average (purely averaging percentage difference), Congressional Democrats ran 8% behind Clinton in Virginia.

Pretty embarrassing imo.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2016, 04:59:06 PM »

Not really.  Most area's in VA are bad for Trump, so Underpreformance would not be expected.  None of it was surprising.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2016, 05:13:50 PM »

Not really.  Most area's in VA are bad for Trump, so Underpreformance would not be expected.  None of it was surprising.

Not surprising just sad at poor recruitment.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2016, 05:15:56 PM »

Trump's performance in the 7th is interesting. It has a lot of Chesterfield and Henrico in it and the Richmond metropolitan area swung hard towards Clinton. Something to maybe note in the future.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2016, 05:16:23 PM »

Not really.  Most area's in VA are bad for Trump, so Underpreformance would not be expected.  None of it was surprising.

Not surprising just sad at poor recruitment.
The bench isn't really that great just yet.  And the good people don't want to run if they think they will be in the minority anyway's.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2016, 05:35:22 PM »

CD-8 - Clinton by 52, Beyer by 41

Only two places did Democrat congresscritters over-perform - CD-3 and CD-8.

On average (purely averaging percentage difference), Congressional Democrats ran 8% behind Clinton in Virginia.

Pretty embarrassing imo.
You actually have Beyer underperform Clinton by 11, unless there was a typo. Anyway, I knew it! Trump was a beyond terrible fit for Virginia, and Clinton was already a good fit, plus Tim Kaine on the ticket. Virginia is still a swing state, but I will concede it tilts Democratic when all else is equal. I think in a tied nationwide PV, without Trump or Kaine, it would be D+0.5-1.0
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2016, 07:34:07 PM »

CD-8 - Clinton by 52, Beyer by 41

Only two places did Democrat congresscritters over-perform - CD-3 and CD-8.

On average (purely averaging percentage difference), Congressional Democrats ran 8% behind Clinton in Virginia.

Pretty embarrassing imo.
You actually have Beyer underperform Clinton by 11, unless there was a typo. Anyway, I knew it! Trump was a beyond terrible fit for Virginia, and Clinton was already a good fit, plus Tim Kaine on the ticket. Virginia is still a swing state, but I will concede it tilts Democratic when all else is equal. I think in a tied nationwide PV, without Trump or Kaine, it would be D+0.5-1.0

I meant 9.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2016, 08:16:59 PM »

CD-8 - Clinton by 52, Beyer by 41

Only two places did Democrat congresscritters over-perform - CD-3 and CD-8.

On average (purely averaging percentage difference), Congressional Democrats ran 8% behind Clinton in Virginia.

Pretty embarrassing imo.
You actually have Beyer underperform Clinton by 11, unless there was a typo. Anyway, I knew it! Trump was a beyond terrible fit for Virginia, and Clinton was already a good fit, plus Tim Kaine on the ticket. Virginia is still a swing state, but I will concede it tilts Democratic when all else is equal. I think in a tied nationwide PV, without Trump or Kaine, it would be D+0.5-1.0

I meant 9.
Oh, so sorry. And even there, Griffith underperformed Trump by only 1. Does anyone have presidential numbers for VA-11. I'd like to compare Trump vs Clinton to GOP vs Dem candidate totals in districts 1-10. Not exactly apples to apples, but still fun.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2016, 12:25:51 AM »

i have no idea why this is. Isn't Virginia an ancestrally dem state? We see all the time how someone like Pat Meehan or what have you in an ancestrally R, R+2 area, why can't the dems do the same in Virginia (which is now D+2)?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2016, 12:53:57 AM »

i have no idea why this is. Isn't Virginia an ancestrally dem state? We see all the time how someone like Pat Meehan or what have you in an ancestrally R, R+2 area, why can't the dems do the same in Virginia (which is now D+2)?
It was the first ex-Confederate state to go Republican.
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2016, 02:14:55 AM »

CD-2 - Trump by 3, Taylor by 23 (!!!)

I refer you all to my previous thread furious at Hampton Roads dems that the only candidate they could get to run was Shaun "Kool Beans" Brown.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2016, 02:35:04 AM »

CD-2 - Trump by 3, Taylor by 23 (!!!)

I refer you all to my previous thread furious at Hampton Roads dems that the only candidate they could get to run was Shaun "Kool Beans" Brown.

When I was reading about the congressional races in that area, I barely even remembered her name.

Were you registered to vote in Virginia at one point?
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2016, 03:02:17 AM »

Hillary sucked up to establishment Republicans. She got a lot of them to vote for her and straight ticket Republican. That did jack sh**t to help other candidates. And she still lost.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2016, 10:30:49 AM »

Hillary sucked up to establishment Republicans. She got a lot of them to vote for her and straight ticket Republican. That did jack sh**t to help other candidates. And she still lost.
How are you still alive, you would have died from the amount of salt that you have been spewing
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2016, 01:01:48 PM »

CD-2 - Trump by 3, Taylor by 23 (!!!)

I refer you all to my previous thread furious at Hampton Roads dems that the only candidate they could get to run was Shaun "Kool Beans" Brown.

When I was reading about the congressional races in that area, I barely even remembered her name.

Were you registered to vote in Virginia at one point?

I am registered, and I did vote for Kool Beanz as I'm too lazy to write anyone in.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2016, 03:40:44 PM »

CD-2 - Trump by 3, Taylor by 23 (!!!)

I refer you all to my previous thread furious at Hampton Roads dems that the only candidate they could get to run was Shaun "Kool Beans" Brown.

When I was reading about the congressional races in that area, I barely even remembered her name.

Were you registered to vote in Virginia at one point?

I am registered, and I did vote for Kool Beanz as I'm too lazy to write anyone in.

Is "Kool Beanz" actually her nickname?

I'm actually familiar with congressional races in the Hampton Roads area because I'm stationed in Portsmouth, but I'm not too familiar with Shaun Brown. I've became familiar with Randy Forbes because I've been to a bunch of his events. He lost the Republican primary even though everyone and their grandmother endorsed him.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2016, 01:52:05 PM »

Hillary sucked up to establishment Republicans. She got a lot of them to vote for her and straight ticket Republican. That did jack sh**t to help other candidates. And she still lost.
How are you still alive, you would have died from the amount of salt that you have been spewing
I literally paid no attention what so ever in my High School biology class. It was the year after the campaign I worked on lost, I was horribly depressed by both the result and an increasing alienation from some of my friends, and I was reading "We the Living" and was enthralled by it. So my question is this, since I'm too lazy to Google the answer: isn't that a good thing? Shouldn't that lower blood pressure or something? I think all that salt is great.

I sure wouldn't apply any to your butthurt though. Might sting.
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