latest Betfair odds

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Michelle Obama, most overrated candidate ever?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

well I hope there's a much more sophisticated 538 forecast for the 2020 primaries.

Just update this article for maximum comedy.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jim-webb-would-make-a-good-anti-clinton-in-2016/

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand’s still not listed on “Betfair Exchange” (the Intrade-like peer-to-peer version from which I normally post prices).  So instead I list her latest share price on the regular Betfair site.

Trump 41.3
Pence 8.7
Warren 8.0
M. Obama 5.3
Biden 5.0
Gillibrand 3.8 (regular Betfair)
Booker 3.4
Clinton 2.9
Sanders 2.5
Ryan 2.3
Castro 2.1

Gillibrand has no business being listed as a presidential candidate.

Why?

Convince me otherwise.

She campaigned in both Iowa and New Hampshire (for Clinton and other Democratic candidates) this year.  She has a leadership PAC which gave out more money to Democratic candidates this year than did the PACs of Booker or Warren.  And unlike Booker and Warren, she gave to early state House candidates Ann McLane Kuster (NH), Carol Shea-Porter (NH), and Monica Vernon (IA).  She did a bunch of politicking at the Democratic Convention this year, as noted in the Tea Leaves thread.  She’s been asked multiple times since the election if she’s going to run for president in 2020, and (unlike Franken, Kaine, and Warner) does not rule it out, simply saying things like “I’m running for reelection in 2018” and “I have no plans to run for president”, which isn’t really a denial that she’s going to be making plans soon.  She reached out to Clinton’s donors in late November:

Gillibrand reaching out to Hillary's donors.

Interesting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And that doesn’t count all the hints of presidential ambition she dropped in ~2012-2014 which were covered in the 2016 Tea Leaves thread, including earlier NH visits, and coming out with a book in 2014.

Seriously, how many more hints does she need to drop?

[Mr. Morden]

Trump 44.2
Pence 8.7
Warren 8.0
M. Obama 5.0
Biden 4.5
Gillibrand 3.8 (regular Betfair)
Booker 3.7
Clinton 3.7
Sanders 2.3
Castro 2.0
Ryan 1.8
Bloomberg 1.7
Rubio 1.7
Cuomo 1.5
Harris 1.4
Kaine 1.3
Kasich 1.3
Haley 1.2
Klobuchar 1.2
Ivanka Trump 0.7

[justfollowingtheelections]

Gillibrand’s still not listed on “Betfair Exchange” (the Intrade-like peer-to-peer version from which I normally post prices).  So instead I list her latest share price on the regular Betfair site.

Trump 41.3
Pence 8.7
Warren 8.0
M. Obama 5.3
Biden 5.0
Gillibrand 3.8 (regular Betfair)
Booker 3.4
Clinton 2.9
Sanders 2.5
Ryan 2.3
Castro 2.1

Gillibrand has no business being listed as a presidential candidate.

Why?

Convince me otherwise.

She campaigned in both Iowa and New Hampshire (for Clinton and other Democratic candidates) this year.  She has a leadership PAC which gave out more money to Democratic candidates this year than did the PACs of Booker or Warren.  And unlike Booker and Warren, she gave to early state House candidates Ann McLane Kuster (NH), Carol Shea-Porter (NH), and Monica Vernon (IA).  She did a bunch of politicking at the Democratic Convention this year, as noted in the Tea Leaves thread.  She’s been asked multiple times since the election if she’s going to run for president in 2020, and (unlike Franken, Kaine, and Warner) does not rule it out, simply saying things like “I’m running for reelection in 2018” and “I have no plans to run for president”, which isn’t really a denial that she’s going to be making plans soon.  She reached out to Clinton’s donors in late November:

Gillibrand reaching out to Hillary's donors.

Interesting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And that doesn’t count all the hints of presidential ambition she dropped in ~2012-2014 which were covered in the 2016 Tea Leaves thread, including earlier NH visits, and coming out with a book in 2014.

Seriously, how many more hints does she need to drop?

None of this makes her capable of becoming a serious candidate.  Next.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand’s still not listed on “Betfair Exchange” (the Intrade-like peer-to-peer version from which I normally post prices).  So instead I list her latest share price on the regular Betfair site.

Trump 41.3
Pence 8.7
Warren 8.0
M. Obama 5.3
Biden 5.0
Gillibrand 3.8 (regular Betfair)
Booker 3.4
Clinton 2.9
Sanders 2.5
Ryan 2.3
Castro 2.1

Gillibrand has no business being listed as a presidential candidate.

Why?

Convince me otherwise.

She campaigned in both Iowa and New Hampshire (for Clinton and other Democratic candidates) this year.  She has a leadership PAC which gave out more money to Democratic candidates this year than did the PACs of Booker or Warren.  And unlike Booker and Warren, she gave to early state House candidates Ann McLane Kuster (NH), Carol Shea-Porter (NH), and Monica Vernon (IA).  She did a bunch of politicking at the Democratic Convention this year, as noted in the Tea Leaves thread.  She’s been asked multiple times since the election if she’s going to run for president in 2020, and (unlike Franken, Kaine, and Warner) does not rule it out, simply saying things like “I’m running for reelection in 2018” and “I have no plans to run for president”, which isn’t really a denial that she’s going to be making plans soon.  She reached out to Clinton’s donors in late November:

Gillibrand reaching out to Hillary's donors.

Interesting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And that doesn’t count all the hints of presidential ambition she dropped in ~2012-2014 which were covered in the 2016 Tea Leaves thread, including earlier NH visits, and coming out with a book in 2014.

Seriously, how many more hints does she need to drop?

None of this makes her capable of becoming a serious candidate.  Next.

I mean, do you seriously think that, if she runs, she's not going to be included in polls and not going to be invited to the debates?  Because that's more than good enough to end up getting listed as a presidential candidate on betting markets.

[Devout Centrist]

Trump 44.2
Pence 8.7
Warren 8.0
M. Obama 5.0
Biden 4.5
Gillibrand 3.8 (regular Betfair)
Booker 3.7
Clinton 3.7
Sanders 2.3
Castro 2.0
Ryan 1.8
Bloomberg 1.7
Rubio 1.7
Cuomo 1.5
Harris 1.4
Kaine 1.3
Kasich 1.3
Haley 1.2
Klobuchar 1.2
Ivanka Trump 0.7

Some of these are completely insane.  Kasich?  Michelle Obama?!

I thought that was Malik Obama.

[Mr. Morden]

So the various online oddsmakers are finally starting to list Democratic nomination odds.  Now, as a reminder here, the Betfair odds I list are from “Betfair Exchange”, which is the peer-to-peer version, meaning that betters trade with each other directly (a la Intrade back in the day), and they set the price.  Since the Dem. nomination is brand new and has such low volume so far, the share prices are kind of ridiculous.  Here are the top five right now:

Betfair Dem. nomination
Warren 41.7
Booker 20.0
Sanders 14.3
M. Obama 13.5
Biden 11.1

So just the top five alone add up to over 100, which is rather ridiculous.  But again, low volume, and it’ll get sorted out in the next few weeks to something more reasonable.

But there are other online oddsmakers where the prices are set by bookies.  Here are William Hill and Ladbrokes prices…

William Hill Dem. nomination
Warren 13.3
Booker 11.1
M. Obama 11.1
Cuomo 9.1
Sanders 9.1
Kaine 6.7
Biden 5.9
Brown 5.9
Castro 4.8
Clinton 4.8
Gillibrand 4.8
Klobuchar 4.8

Ladbrokes Dem. nomination
Warren 12.5
Booker 11.1
M. Obama 11.1
Sanders 11.1
Cuomo 9.1
Kaine 7.7
Biden 5.9
Brown 5.9
Hickenlooper 3.8
Warner 2.9

Ladbrokes GOP nomination
Trump 59.9
Pence 20.0
Rubio 3.8
Ryan 3.8
Haley 2.9

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair numbers are starting to settle down a bit in the Dem. nomination market, but still low volume, and pretty much everyone’s share prices are high compared to what you find on sites where the prices are set by bookies…with the top 8 alone adding up to more than 100:

Warren 20.0
Booker 19.2
M. Obama 13.5
Sanders 13.2
Biden 11.1
Castro 9.1
Clinton 9.1
Cuomo 9.1

[justfollowingtheelections]

Gillibrand’s still not listed on “Betfair Exchange” (the Intrade-like peer-to-peer version from which I normally post prices).  So instead I list her latest share price on the regular Betfair site.

Trump 41.3
Pence 8.7
Warren 8.0
M. Obama 5.3
Biden 5.0
Gillibrand 3.8 (regular Betfair)
Booker 3.4
Clinton 2.9
Sanders 2.5
Ryan 2.3
Castro 2.1

Gillibrand has no business being listed as a presidential candidate.

Why?

Convince me otherwise.

She campaigned in both Iowa and New Hampshire (for Clinton and other Democratic candidates) this year.  She has a leadership PAC which gave out more money to Democratic candidates this year than did the PACs of Booker or Warren.  And unlike Booker and Warren, she gave to early state House candidates Ann McLane Kuster (NH), Carol Shea-Porter (NH), and Monica Vernon (IA).  She did a bunch of politicking at the Democratic Convention this year, as noted in the Tea Leaves thread.  She’s been asked multiple times since the election if she’s going to run for president in 2020, and (unlike Franken, Kaine, and Warner) does not rule it out, simply saying things like “I’m running for reelection in 2018” and “I have no plans to run for president”, which isn’t really a denial that she’s going to be making plans soon.  She reached out to Clinton’s donors in late November:

Gillibrand reaching out to Hillary's donors.

Interesting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And that doesn’t count all the hints of presidential ambition she dropped in ~2012-2014 which were covered in the 2016 Tea Leaves thread, including earlier NH visits, and coming out with a book in 2014.

Seriously, how many more hints does she need to drop?

None of this makes her capable of becoming a serious candidate.  Next.

I mean, do you seriously think that, if she runs, she's not going to be included in polls and not going to be invited to the debates?  Because that's more than good enough to end up getting listed as a presidential candidate on betting markets.

No, but she doesn't stand a chance of winning the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair's now taking bets on whether the following people will run for prez in 2020:

Booker 73
Cuomo 66
Gillibrand 39
Mark Cuban 23

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Do they have which party will win yet?

[Mr. Morden]

Do they have which party will win yet?

Betfair's market on that is still very low volume, so adds up to way more than 100%.  But every bookie now has the Dems as being at least slightly favored to win.  E.g., Ladbrokes has it as 58% chance of the Dems winning, 42% for the GOP.  Most of the others have it a bit closer.

[Ljube]

Do they have which party will win yet?

Betfair's market on that is still very low volume, so adds up to way more than 100%.  But every bookie now has the Dems as being at least slightly favored to win.  E.g., Ladbrokes has it as 58% chance of the Dems winning, 42% for the GOP.  Most of the others have it a bit closer.

Bookmakers have no clue, as usual.

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual:

Trump 39.1
Warren 11.9
Pence 9.5
Clinton 6.4
M. Obama 6.0
Biden 5.3
Sanders 3.7
Booker 3.4
Harris 3.4

Trump is back down below 40, after being at 44 a couple of weeks ago.  And Warren’s ahead of Pence again.  Clinton being as high as 6.4 is probably a temporary blip, as it looks like her price spiked today for no apparent reason.  Volume’s still low enough that one overeager buyer can move the prices.

[Pandaguineapig]

Lol at Michelle Obama, reminds me of when Jeb was always at least at 10-15 even when his polling nosedived

[Lachi]

Lol, how is Biden on this anymore, I heard that he ended up declining to run in 2020

[jimrtex]

Winning individual:

Trump 39.1
Warren 11.9
Pence 9.5
Clinton 6.4
M. Obama 6.0
Biden 5.3
Sanders 3.7
Booker 3.4
Harris 3.4

Trump is back down below 40, after being at 44 a couple of weeks ago.  And Warren’s ahead of Pence again.  Clinton being as high as 6.4 is probably a temporary blip, as it looks like her price spiked today for no apparent reason.  Volume’s still low enough that one overeager buyer can move the prices.

How much would it cost to move the market at this point, say I wanted Booker or Sanders up to 10.0?

[Mr. Morden]

The individual nomination markets are still too volatile to pay much attention to, but Trump is down to a 54% chance to win the GOP nomination, which is the lowest he’s been since the market opened back in December.  Correspondingly, he’s been dropping and Pence has been gaining in the winning individual market:

Trump 34.5
Pence 13.4
Warren 10.0
M. Obama 6.2
Clinton 5.4
Booker 4.5
Biden 4.2
Ryan 3.8
Sanders 3.8
Harris 3.3

[elcorazon]

The individual nomination markets are still too volatile to pay much attention to, but Trump is down to a 54% chance to win the GOP nomination, which is the lowest he’s been since the market opened back in December.  Correspondingly, he’s been dropping and Pence has been gaining in the winning individual market:

Trump 34.5
Pence 13.4
Warren 10.0
M. Obama 6.2
Clinton 5.4
Booker 4.5
Biden 4.2
Ryan 3.8
Sanders 3.8
Harris 3.3

I'd be surprised if anyone on this list wins the 2020 election

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair now giving Trump just a 49% chance of being the 2020 Republican presidential nominee, and Ladbrokes is giving him about the same.  His chances of making it through his entire first term without leaving office early is bouncing around but in the mid-50s, so if he's not renominated, the market seems to think it'll probably be because he's out of office early (via either death, resignation, or impeachment), rather than because he stays in office but opts not to run again, or stays in office, runs again, but loses the nomination.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Betfair now giving Trump just a 49% chance of being the 2020 Republican presidential nominee, and Ladbrokes is giving him about the same.  His chances of making it through his entire first term without leaving office early is bouncing around but in the mid-50s, so if he's not renominated, the market seems to think it'll probably be because he's out of office early (via either death, resignation, or impeachment), rather than because he stays in office but opts not to run again, or stays in office, runs again, but loses the nomination.

I actually think it is a very plausible scenario that he finishes his term but doesn't seek reelection and endorses Pence from day 1.

[Mr. Morden]

Predictit now has markets on whether the following people will run for president in 2020, with the following % probabilities that they’ll run:

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Category/6/US-Elections

Booker 66
Gillibrand 46
Cuomo 42
Klobuchar 40
Sanders 27
Cuban 20
Zuckerberg 18

Meanwhile, on Betfair, Trump to win the 2020 GOP nomination has rebounded, and is back above 50.  It’s now at 54.1.  Trump to make it through his entire first term without leaving office early is now at 55.9.

[Mr. Morden]

Predictit has added Warren, Cruz, and Kasich to their list of people for whom they’re taking bets on whether they’ll run for president or not.  Here are the Predictit odds on whether these folks will run for president in 2020 or not:

Booker 65
Gillibrand 50
Warren 48
Cuomo 43
Klobuchar 31
Sanders 30
Cuban 26
Kasich 20
Cruz 18
Zuckerberg 17

[Mr. Morden]

Predicit now gives both Cuomo and Warren a better than 50/50 chance of running…

Booker 66
Cuomo 54
Warren 52
Gillibrand 48
Klobuchar 36
Sanders 30
Kasich 26
Cuban 25
Cruz 23
Zuckerberg 16