MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[MT Treasurer]

Post high quality Atlas #analysis here.

[Figueira]

Great! I think he's narrowly favored. Certainly better than any other random Democrat who might run.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Enthusiastically endorsed. One of the best senators.

[BuckeyeNut]

I wouldn't call it a "pure" tossup. Very narrow Tilt-D.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I'd say he's definitely favored as of now, running in a Trump midterm against a relatively weak bench (Zinke probably gets the nod but he doesn't seem like a very strong candidate). Tilt D, but closer to Lean then pure Tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clearly Tester is favored in a Trump midterm than a Clinton midterm. Buyer's remorse will clearly be setting in just in time for 2017-2018.

[Maxwell]

Can't Bester the Tester!

Montana Democrats are pretty much the best in terms of atlas blue state Democrats.

[publicunofficial]

Lean D against Zinke, Toss-Up against Fox

[KingSweden]

Lean D against Zinke, Toss-Up against Fox

This. I believe Fox wants to do governor in 2020, though, when he'd easily win

[Kingpoleon]

I would say Tilt D against Ryan Zinke, Toss-Up against Tim Fox.

Lean/Likely D against any other R who is not a former Governor.

[Cynthia]

Cook rates it Likely D but Cook early ratings mean nothing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook rates it Likely D but Cook early ratings mean nothing.

Tilt D
IN, MT,  WV, ND, FL, PA, OH

Pure Tossup
MO, NV and AZ

The rest are safe for now

[Xing]

I'd call it Lean D. The national environment is more likely than not to favor Tester again, and he's not to be underestimated.

[MT Treasurer]

Zinke considering

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Surprise! /s

[Figueira]

What forest management changes are we talking about here?

[Cynthia]

From more likely Democratic to less likely Democratic, assuming no retirements:
ME
NJ
VA
FL
MI
WI
PA
OH
NV
WV
MT
AZ
ND
MO
IN
TX
UT
MS
TN

[Young Conservative]

I wouldn't call it a "pure" tossup. Very narrow Tilt-D.

[Kevin]

Given that Tester is an incumbent running with a Republican in the White House. I have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[windjammer]

Lean D against Zinke, Toss-Up against Fox

This. I believe Fox wants to do governor in 2020, though, when he'd easily win

Not sure why everyone thinks that Fox would easily win a gubernatorial election in a state like Montana or that Zinke is such a bad candidate.

Fox is fairly a good candidate while Zinke seems to be average.

[MT Treasurer]

GOP actively courting Fox

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GOP actively courting Fox

A little scary, but Tester should pull through in the end. #TRUMPMIDTERM #REELECTROMNEYSTATEDEMS

[JMT]

With Gianforte likely to win the special election for the House, he could likely be a main contender for Governor in 2020. And with Zinke gone as the senate candidate against Tester in 2018, and no other republican set to take his place, this is likely Tim Fox's best opportunity. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for it. Tester vs Fox would be a toss up in my opinion.

[MT Treasurer]

With Gianforte likely to win the special election for the House, he could likely be a main contender for Governor in 2020. And with Zinke gone as the senate candidate against Tester in 2018, and no other republican set to take his place, this is likely Tim Fox's best opportunity. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for it. Tester vs Fox would be a toss up in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree with this. IMO Fox should go for it. It will be a Tossup, but it's not as if he would have an easy time winning a gubernatorial race in 2020 either.  

If Fox doesn't run, Buttrey would also be okay. Even Scott Sales would be acceptable if the alternative is O'Neill.

[KingSweden]

With Gianforte likely to win the special election for the House, he could likely be a main contender for Governor in 2020. And with Zinke gone as the senate candidate against Tester in 2018, and no other republican set to take his place, this is likely Tim Fox's best opportunity. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for it. Tester vs Fox would be a toss up in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree with this. IMO Fox should go for it. It will be a Tossup, but it's not as if he would have an easy time winning a gubernatorial race in 2020 either.  

If Fox doesn't run, Buttrey would also be okay. Even Scott Sales would be acceptable if the alternative is O'Neill, Stapleton or Rosendale.

RRH is really only O'Neill's pipe, talking about he would be the best candidate EVAR!!1! Is he actually not that great?

Still think Fox is the top recruit here, but I sense he'd prefer to be Gov

[Heisenberg]

With Gianforte likely to win the special election for the House, he could likely be a main contender for Governor in 2020. And with Zinke gone as the senate candidate against Tester in 2018, and no other republican set to take his place, this is likely Tim Fox's best opportunity. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for it. Tester vs Fox would be a toss up in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree with this. IMO Fox should go for it. It will be a Tossup, but it's not as if he would have an easy time winning a gubernatorial race in 2020 either.  

If Fox doesn't run, Buttrey would also be okay. Even Scott Sales would be acceptable if the alternative is O'Neill, Stapleton or Rosendale.

RRH is really only O'Neill's pipe, talking about he would be the best candidate EVAR!!1! Is he actually not that great?

Still think Fox is the top recruit here, but I sense he'd prefer to be Gov

Governor would lead to a tough primary against Gianforte, and maybe at least one other row officer/state legislator.

One downside to Fox running is if he wins he hands Democrats the State AG spot (easily the most partisan row office), and it creates another Democratic rising star who could go for Governor or Senate in 2024 (assuming he/she wins in 2020). It seems to be pretty tough to knock off an incumbent row officer in Montana, right?

My choice would be Buttrey.