MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Bad sign for national Republicans.

lol

It's a bad sign for national republicans because a (fairly sought after) recruit bailed on the 2018 cycle. Obviously MT isn't the rest of the country, but add this to Congressional retirements, and it's pretty clear that the GOP grassroots is feeling very bearish about the midterm.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad sign for national Republicans.

lol

It's a bad sign for national republicans because a (fairly sought after) recruit bailed on the 2018 cycle. Obviously MT isn't the rest of the country, but add this to Congressional retirements, and it's pretty clear that the GOP grassroots is feeling very bearish about the midterm.

This. Obviously you know more about the specifics of Montana, but top Republican rectuits passing on races + retirements from Republicans like IRL is not a good sign for the RNC.

[The Other Castro]

Tester is not, never was, and never will be safe or doomed. Fox getting in probably wouldn't have moved the overall rating far from its current status, which is probably around Tilt or Lean Dem.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

This. Obviously you know more about the specifics of Montana, but top Republican rectuits passing on races + retirements from Republicans like IRL is not a good sign for the RNC.

Okay, so Fox (apparently a "top recruit") has declined to run, and who else? If this trend continues and people like Messer/Wagner/Scott/Cramer all decide against a run, then I'd be pretty worried as well, yeah. But there are like 18 months left until election day, and I still think the GOP has a good chance in all the "red" states (except ND, probably). The swing states are more of a mixed bag for Republicans so far, and we probably won't get a very clear picture there soon anyway. My feeling is that if 2018 is a massive Democratic wave, it won't be because of terrible GOP recruitment. Yeah, Fox didn't run, but extrapolating from this that Republicans are now in big trouble everywhere is like saying 2018 will be a GOP wave in the Senate because Democrats don't have an obvious challenger in NV and AZ yet. Give it time.

This would be why it is a "bad sign" for the GOP, and not "100% proof of 2018 disintegration of the party smash the giant red emergency eject button now" for the GOP

[BuckeyeNut]

To PNM's point--which is my own, just more specific-- Messer is delaying in Indiana.

And as Chickenhawk said, bad sign. Not the apocalypse.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm not sure whether he will actually run for Senate, but Yellowstone County District Judge Russell Fagg (R) is stepping down this fall and considering a future political career.

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http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/district-judge-russell-fagg-resigning-to-start-his-own-law/article_5f9859c4-7f5d-5a77-a8ed-575965239fac.html

[BuckeyeNut]

That's a rough name to run with.

[KingSweden]

That's a rough name to run with.

[MT Treasurer]

Also:

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http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/06/10/gop-senate-hopeful-makes-trip-washington/385328001/

I like both Rosendale and Olszewski, actually.

[Heisenberg]

Also:

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http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/06/10/gop-senate-hopeful-makes-trip-washington/385328001/

I like both Rosendale and Olszewski, actually.

I'm liking Olszewski more and more, actually, but I wish GF steps down, and Olszewski runs for the House seat. His hometown of Kalispell would go in a western MT-01 if it gets two seats, and, as an incumbent when they split the state, he could actually hold on. Rosendale is better for Senate since he already has statewide recognition, and, nothing beats the drone ad.

[Heisenberg]

More news:

http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/republicans-are-already-lining-up-to-challenge-tester/article_71bbba95-431e-5055-9fed-5d3f63ac7f31.html

[quote]Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale kept a close eye on Senate prospects. Rosendale hasn’t said whether he will run for U.S. Senate. Asked by The Gazette on May 31 if he would run for federal office, Rosendale said he would first focus on any insurance changes brought about by the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, and then decide.[quote]

The article says there's the potential for a crowded primary. Other people mentioned are "some dudes" named Kurt Allen Cole and Scott Roy McLean.

[KingSweden]

Also:

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http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/06/10/gop-senate-hopeful-makes-trip-washington/385328001/

I like both Rosendale and Olszewski, actually.

I'm liking Olszewski more and more, actually, but I wish GF steps down, and Olszewski runs for the House seat. His hometown of Kalispell would go in a western MT-01 if it gets two seats, and, as an incumbent when they split the state, he could actually hold on. Rosendale is better for Senate since he already has statewide recognition, and, nothing beats the drone ad.

Is MT still likely for a 2nd seat?

[Heisenberg]

Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/06/10/gop-senate-hopeful-makes-trip-washington/385328001/

I like both Rosendale and Olszewski, actually.

I'm liking Olszewski more and more, actually, but I wish GF steps down, and Olszewski runs for the House seat. His hometown of Kalispell would go in a western MT-01 if it gets two seats, and, as an incumbent when they split the state, he could actually hold on. Rosendale is better for Senate since he already has statewide recognition, and, nothing beats the drone ad.

Is MT still likely for a 2nd seat?

Montana was seen as likely for a second seat early in the decade (2011, 12) but then by the middle of the decade, it was seen as less likely. Now, it looks like a second seat may actually happen. According to Muon's projections IIRC, MT-02 moved up to seat 438 or something last year; the year before it wasn't on the first 440. It'll be very close, I really hope it gets the seat back, MT-01 would be a fun district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How funny would it be for the GOP to nominate someone with the last name fagg, lol.

[The Other Castro]

Fagg is exploring.

http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/sitting-billings-judge-forms-exploratory-committee-to-seek-senate-seat/article_c1511642-2f3a-5b6d-9544-1256cafc1582.html

[publicunofficial]

How funny would it be for the GOP to nominate someone with the last name fagg, lol.

Are you 12?

[BuckeyeNut]

How funny would it be for the GOP to nominate someone with the last name fagg, lol.

Are you 12?

You don't need to be 12 to appreciate the irony here. Plus, it's just an AWFUL name to run with.

[Heisenberg]

Fagg is exploring.

http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/sitting-billings-judge-forms-exploratory-committee-to-seek-senate-seat/article_c1511642-2f3a-5b6d-9544-1256cafc1582.html

No surprise. Obviously don't want to get ahead of myself here, but right now I don't see a path to victory for him in the GOP primary if he jumps in. Olszewski is more likely to be backed by the GOP establishment (unless someone like Rosendale runs, but I wouldn't count on it) and Downing will run as Gianforte 2.0 and try to tap into the Trumpist voting base, which leaves little room for a district court judge.

I can't really see Downing getting the "Trumpist" base, I found out hat during the election season, he tweeted negatively about Trump a lot.
Is it now looking unlikely that Rosendale runs?

[Heisenberg]

I can't really see Downing getting the "Trumpist" base, I found out hat during the election season, he tweeted negatively about Trump a lot.

Yes he did, but Gianforte was very reluctant to support Trump back in 2016 as well (granted, not to this extent, but still...) and look how that turned out in the end. Also, Downing is a close friend of Zinke (much like Gianforte and Daines have known each other for a long time now), so him winning the nomination is not that far-fetched. There is a path for him if Rosendale and Stapleton don't run, and he has that entire "outsider" thing going for him.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will have to find a way to strike the right balance. Distancing oneself from Trump or "unendorsing" him (assuming he is unpopular) would definitely backfire, but embracing his entire agenda might alienate some moderates who are more likely to vote for Tester in the end. It’s a risky trade-off, especially since MT is nowhere near as Trumpist as some of these other battleground states and Republicans have little room for error if they want to win a statewide or Senate race. Gianforte did a fairly good job in the special election: He campaigned as a Trump supporter, but made his entire campaign more about "being an Independent voice for MT who will drain the swamp" and for the most part made it clear where he differed from Trump and where he didn't. You have to come across as authentic to the average voter in some way.

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I'm not sure, honestly. Like I said, I wouldn't count on it.

Okay, thanks! Also, Gallatin County has quickly turned into a monstrous powerhouse within the MT GOP. Daines and Gianforte are both from there, as is Downing. Do you think Tester may make that an issue (one county controlling the whole delegation) or do I read too much into these things (I kind of prefer geographic diversity)?

[The Other Castro]

"Tester raises more than $2 million in second quarter"

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http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/10/jon-tester-montana-senate-fundraising-240379

[MT Treasurer]

Not surprising. Unfortunately, I think Daines might be more likely to lose than Tester, but I still think both races are Tossups. If the election were held today, Tester would win.

Btw: Would it be a good idea to make this a general MT-2018 thread for both the Senate AND the House race? I mean, both races are going to be fairly competitive, so why not.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not surprising. Unfortunately, I think Daines might be more likely to lose than Tester, but I still think both races are Tossups. If the election were held today, Tester would win.

Btw: Would it be a good idea to make this a general MT-2018 thread for both the Senate AND the House race? I mean, both races are going to be fairly competitive, so why not.

Nah, let's keep it in one thread,

[MT Treasurer]

Rosendale to make his decision within this month

[TheSaint250]

Is he a good candidate?

[Heisenberg]

Is he a good candidate?

I would say so. He sounds like one who really wants to run, has already won statewide, and is pretty popular in Eastern Montana. I really like him. Also, the drone as is so Montana.