NY State Senate 31-31 with the 8th still undecided between Venditto and Brooks

[Smash255]

Of course if another power sharing agreement happens (which is unclear if it will happen or not)  it could make it somewhat meaningless, but 62 of the 63 races for the NY State Senate have been decided. Democrats and Republicans have each won 31 seats.  The 8th seat Incumbent Republican Michael Venditto trails Democrat John Brooks by 33 votes.

The race wasn't initially thought to be competitive, and the Republicans won the other seats on LI that were thought to be competitive (with the exception of Skelos's old seat in the 9th).  However, a little less than three weeks before Election Day, Michael Venditto's father, Town of Oyster Bay Supervisor John Venditto was arrested on corruption charges along with Nassau Co. Exec Ed Mangano and Mangano's wife for dealings with a previously indicted business owner Hendritta Singh.


His father's legal issues made a race that wasn't expected to be that competitive into a competitive one and the race  is now separated by 33 votes.  State Sen Michael Venditto is actually in a similar place his father was a year ago.  A year ago his father actually trailed slightly after the Election Day tallies in his re-election bid for Town of Oyster Bay Supervisor as he was dealing with the fallout of the indictment of Singh who he was known to be very close to along with an indictment of another Town of Oyster Bay official.  Venditto later won very narrowly once all the absentee ballots were counted.   

I live in the 6th, but literally blocks away from the 8th. 


http://www.newsday.com/opinion/eyes-on-john-brooks-michael-venditto-race-for-control-of-state-senate-1.12621150

[jaichind]

Simcha Felder, Rogue Democratic Senator, Will Remain Loyal to G.O.P.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/nyregion/simcha-felder-rogue-democratic-senator-will-remain-loyal-to-gop.html

This pretty much assures that even if Dems win 32-31 the GOP will still control the New York State Senate.  The GOP managing to hold on despite the fall Dean Skelos and the defection of Independent Democratic Conference is quite impressive.  Most of the credit really should go to Trump for his surge in Upstate New York help carry a bunch of embattled NY GOP incumbents to hold on.  

Take that, de Blasio.

[Suburbia]

Simcha Felder, Rogue Democratic Senator, Will Remain Loyal to G.O.P.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/nyregion/simcha-felder-rogue-democratic-senator-will-remain-loyal-to-gop.html

This pretty much assures that even if Dems win 32-31 the GOP will still control the New York State Senate.  The GOP managing to hold on despite the fall Dean Skelos and the defection of Independent Democratic Conference is quite impressive.  Most of the credit really should go to Trump for his surge in Upstate New York help carry a bunch of embattled NY GOP incumbents to hold on.  

Take that, de Blasio.

Felder is a conservative-leaning New York Democrat. They are a lot of them in New York City, they represent moderate leaning voters. Dov Hikind, Rory Lancman, Ruben Diaz, Sr., etc.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Simcha Felder, Rogue Democratic Senator, Will Remain Loyal to G.O.P.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/nyregion/simcha-felder-rogue-democratic-senator-will-remain-loyal-to-gop.html

This pretty much assures that even if Dems win 32-31 the GOP will still control the New York State Senate.  The GOP managing to hold on despite the fall Dean Skelos and the defection of Independent Democratic Conference is quite impressive.  Most of the credit really should go to Trump for his surge in Upstate New York help carry a bunch of embattled NY GOP incumbents to hold on.  

Take that, de Blasio.

Felder is a conservative-leaning New York Democrat. They are a lot of them in New York City, they represent moderate leaning voters. Dov Hikind, Rory Lancman, Ruben Diaz, Sr., etc.

Felder, Diaz Sr, and Hikind are Republicans whatever they call themselves.

[Suburbia]

Simcha Felder, Rogue Democratic Senator, Will Remain Loyal to G.O.P.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/nyregion/simcha-felder-rogue-democratic-senator-will-remain-loyal-to-gop.html

This pretty much assures that even if Dems win 32-31 the GOP will still control the New York State Senate.  The GOP managing to hold on despite the fall Dean Skelos and the defection of Independent Democratic Conference is quite impressive.  Most of the credit really should go to Trump for his surge in Upstate New York help carry a bunch of embattled NY GOP incumbents to hold on.  

Take that, de Blasio.

Felder is a conservative-leaning New York Democrat. They are a lot of them in New York City, they represent moderate leaning voters. Dov Hikind, Rory Lancman, Ruben Diaz, Sr., etc.

Felder, Diaz Sr, and Hikind are Republicans whatever they call themselves.

They're moderate. I'm moderate. You have to have a classic balance.

[jaichind]

If seems that Jeffrey Klein’s Independent Democratic Conference has expanded their size to 7 after this election.  While the IDC will no longer caucus with the GOP they will stay separate and independent from the main Democratic Caucus.  So assuming it ends up being Dem 32-31 which means de facto GOP control 32-31 I can see GOP could have trouble holding its flock together since they have a majority of 1 but on the other hand the Dems are divided among themselves giving the GOP a chance to do deals with their former ally IDC if necessary.  Of course there is the additional complication that the man behind the curtain of the IDC is really just Gov Cuomo. 

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Is there a particular reason that primary voters haven't gotten rid of the Cuck Caucus yet?

[mds32]

I think Venditto somehow pulls it out

[Cashew]

Is there a particular reason that primary voters haven't gotten rid of the Cuck Caucus yet?

[jaichind]

Is there a particular reason that primary voters haven't gotten rid of the Cuck Caucus yet?

It seems related to the fact that IDC did break away from the GOP after the fall of  Skelos.  None of them faced primary challenges.  The various members of the IDC are fairly strong in their district so even a primary challenge of IDC members will most likely fail and most likely just drive them back in the arms of the GOP.

[jaichind]

NY state senate politics actually resembles Japanese prefecture politics.   In many Japanese prefectures, there is a de jure or de facto LDP governor and in the prefecture diet there is a pro-governor LDP faction and a non-governor LDP faction as well as opposition parties.  In NY state senate IDC is the pro-Cuomo Dem faction and mainline Dem are the non-Cuomo Dem faction.  And of course we have the GOP.

In this case given the agenda that Cuomo has I suspect he will push his IDC faction to join up with the GOP again despite promises by the IDC before the election not to do so.

[jaichind]

According to

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/new-york-playbook/2016/11/de-blasio-vows-noncompliance-nbcu-expands-buzzfeed-investment-trump-cancels-times-meeting-217520

"-- State Sen. Michael Venditto netted about a hundred votes Monday after the first day of absentee ballot counting in Nassau and Suffolk counties. Venditto, a Republican who entered the day down 33 votes to Democrat John Brooks, finished ahead by 68 votes, according to Senate GOP spokesman Scott Reif."

[Mr.Phips]

According to

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/new-york-playbook/2016/11/de-blasio-vows-noncompliance-nbcu-expands-buzzfeed-investment-trump-cancels-times-meeting-217520

"-- State Sen. Michael Venditto netted about a hundred votes Monday after the first day of absentee ballot counting in Nassau and Suffolk counties. Venditto, a Republican who entered the day down 33 votes to Democrat John Brooks, finished ahead by 68 votes, according to Senate GOP spokesman Scott Reif."

Of course he did...

[Tintrlvr]

According to

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/new-york-playbook/2016/11/de-blasio-vows-noncompliance-nbcu-expands-buzzfeed-investment-trump-cancels-times-meeting-217520

"-- State Sen. Michael Venditto netted about a hundred votes Monday after the first day of absentee ballot counting in Nassau and Suffolk counties. Venditto, a Republican who entered the day down 33 votes to Democrat John Brooks, finished ahead by 68 votes, according to Senate GOP spokesman Scott Reif."

Of course he did...

It's not shocking that excuse-only absentee ballots are going to skew pretty Republican. I'm curious how many are still left to count, though. If that was a large portion of the absentees, Brooks should have this after provisionals are counted, but, if it was only a small portion of the absentees, Venditto probably wins.

[Devils30]

A Trump debacle might finally crack the GOP state senate here.

[Tintrlvr]

Simcha Felder, Rogue Democratic Senator, Will Remain Loyal to G.O.P.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/nyregion/simcha-felder-rogue-democratic-senator-will-remain-loyal-to-gop.html

This pretty much assures that even if Dems win 32-31 the GOP will still control the New York State Senate.  The GOP managing to hold on despite the fall Dean Skelos and the defection of Independent Democratic Conference is quite impressive.  Most of the credit really should go to Trump for his surge in Upstate New York help carry a bunch of embattled NY GOP incumbents to hold on.  

Take that, de Blasio.

Felder is a conservative-leaning New York Democrat. They are a lot of them in New York City, they represent moderate leaning voters. Dov Hikind, Rory Lancman, Ruben Diaz, Sr., etc.

Felder, Diaz Sr, and Hikind are Republicans whatever they call themselves.

They're moderate. I'm moderate. You have to have a classic balance.

They're not. The Independent Democrats are (mostly) moderates. Felder, Hikind and Diaz Sr. are conservative Republicans who run as Democrats for purely electoral and cultural reasons.

[Hifly]

Simcha Felder, Rogue Democratic Senator, Will Remain Loyal to G.O.P.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/nyregion/simcha-felder-rogue-democratic-senator-will-remain-loyal-to-gop.html

This pretty much assures that even if Dems win 32-31 the GOP will still control the New York State Senate.  The GOP managing to hold on despite the fall Dean Skelos and the defection of Independent Democratic Conference is quite impressive.  Most of the credit really should go to Trump for his surge in Upstate New York help carry a bunch of embattled NY GOP incumbents to hold on.  

Take that, de Blasio.

Felder is a conservative-leaning New York Democrat. They are a lot of them in New York City, they represent moderate leaning voters. Dov Hikind, Rory Lancman, Ruben Diaz, Sr., etc.

Felder, Diaz Sr, and Hikind are Republicans whatever they call themselves.

They're moderate. I'm moderate. You have to have a classic balance.

They're not. The Independent Democrats are (mostly) moderates. Felder, Hikind and Diaz Sr. are conservative Republicans who run as Democrats for purely electoral and cultural reasons.

Diaz Sr. is far from what you've described and probably the most progressive Democrat in the Senate.

[Smash255]

Brooks up by 41,  1,100 objections have been filed more than 2/3 by Republicans.


http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/john-brooks-holds-41-vote-lead-in-8th-senate-district-race-1.12691626