The Realignment: 2016 and Onwards

[Heisenberg]

With the results of last week's elections, my old timeline looked silly. I will eventually return to The Hillary Downfall, and write about a Republican Party recovering from a fictional (close) Trump loss. But this is going to be a new one based on last week's elections.

Prologue:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2016
Elections go the same way they do in our timeline.

Trump Cabinet: (so far)
Chief of Staff: Reince Priebus
Chief Strategist:Steve Bannon

Next cabinet names coming soon. Picks in this timeline may not reflect the ones in real life.

Enjoy!

[Heisenberg]

By Thanksgiving, the Trump team has already announced the following names to the cabinet:

Attorney General: Jeff Sessions
Secretary of the Treasury: Steven Mnuchin
Secretary of Transportation: John Mica
CIA Director: Mike Pompeo
National Security Advisor: Michael Flynn

Next Update: The rest of the cabinet, inauguration, the first few days, and special elections (if applicable).

Edit: Corrected a mistake.

[Heisenberg]

The Cabinet (Remaining Picks)
Secretary of State: Bob Corker
Secretary of Defense: James Mattis
Secretary of Agriculture: Jerry Moran
Secretary of Labor: Victoria Lipnic
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee
Secretary of HHS: Bobby Jindal
Secretary of the Interior: Sarah Palin
Secretary of Commerce: Peter Thiel
Secretary of HUD: Scott Brown
Secretary of Energy: Kevin Cramer
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Jeff Miller
Secretary of Homeland Security: David Clarke

Cabinet-Level and Other Major Positions
OMB Director: Jack Kingston
EPA Administrator: Robert Grady
SBA Administrator: Jim Talent
Trade Representative: Dan DiMicco
UN Ambassador: Mitt Romney
Council of Economic Advisers Chair: Carl Icahn
Press Secretary: Kellyanne Conway
Surgeon General: Ben Carson
Director of National Intelligence: Rudy Giuliani
NASA Administrator: Eileen Collins
Secretary of the Army: Duncan L. Hunter
Secretary of the Navy: Randy Forbes
Secretary of the Air Force: Mike Griffin

Trump showed that he does not have thin skin, by naming Mitt Romney Ambassador to the UN after the two made peace at a meeting in New Jersey soon after the election. John Kasich, another #NeverTrumper, announced a run for US Senate in 2018, and Trump immediately threw full support behind the bid, saying "John will make a great US Senator and I look forward to working with him when he returns to Washington in two years." Ben Sasse also made amends, but declined any appointments, pledging to remain in the Senate. Nikki Haley vowed to finish her term as Governor, but remained open to accepting a spot in the administration after her term ended. Joe Heck and Kelly Ayotte, two Republican Senate candidates who blew their poll leads after bolting from Trump make up with him and get high-profile ambassadorships.

Vacancies:
KS Sen: To the ire of establishment-oriented Republicans, Brownback appoints defeated conservative Tim Huelskamp to Moran's seat. A special election will be held in 2018. Huelskamp will first have to fend off a primary challenge from Kevin Yoder, in what will likely be the marquee Senate primary of the 2018 season, and could divert attention away from some of the competitive general elections.

TN-Sen: Bill Haslam appoints former Senator Bill Frist back to his old seat. Frist promises to retire in 2018, this time for good, leading many to suspect that popular term-limited Governor Haslam will run for the next term in 2018.

The following House seats will have vacancies to be filled in Special elections, February 21, 2017:
KS-04: Ron Estes vs. Dan Giroux
ND-AL: Brian Kalk vs. John Grabinger
Republicans are thought to be favored in both races, but both are taken seriously by both parties. Grabinger is seen as an especially formidable candidate, as he won reelection to his heavily Republican State Senate seat in 2016 by 18 points. But Kalk is a formidable candidate too, and has the name recognition and money advantages, and the partisan lean of the state on his side.

Supreme Court:
With help from his Attorney General-designate and close friend, Trump nominates William Pryor to the Supreme Court seat vacated by Scalia. Clarence Thomas and Anthony Kennedy both mull retirement, which would give Trump two more vacancies to fill. The two eldest liberals, Ginsburg and Breyer, both Clinton appointees, play down their old age and deny retirement rumors.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cool.
What are Trump's approvals?

[Heisenberg]

Final Update before Inauguration:

Louisiana Results:

Senate
John Neely Kennedy: 56%
Foster Campbell: 44%

House, LA-03
Scott Angelle: 50.5%
Clay Higgins: 49.5%

House, LA-04
Mike Johnson: 62%
Marshall Jones: 38%

As expected, LA-04 and the Senate seat stay in Republican hands. Angelle, who really underperformed in the primary, narrowly edged out a victory in the runoff, in spite of all of Higgins's troubles.

Alabama: Gov. Robert Bentley announces his appointment for Sessions's Senate seat: Congressman Robert Aderholt of Alabama's 4th Congressional District. The special election for the seat will be held on February 21, 2017, the same day as the other two. State Senator Greg Reed is the Republican nominee, and is heavily favored over perennial candidate Nicholas Sparks, the Democrat.

Trump Approvals
Disapprove: 52%
Approve: 48%

Trump's approvals pull almost even as the inauguration approaches, and he has assembled his cabinet.    The country remains quite polarized, as the percent approving and disapproving is near even, but Trump has increased from the rock-bottom favorability ratings he saw throughout much of the campaign. He has moved quickly in assembling his team, and the transition went smoothly as inauguration approaches.

[Heisenberg]

The inauguration went smoothly. All of Trump's cabinet picks were confirmed, except for Michelle Rhee, who surprisingly failed with a vote of 48-52, which did not follow party lines. More conservative Republicans opposed her due to her pro-Common Core stance, which was at odds with Trump and many Republicans, while some of the more liberal Democrats disliked her pro-charter school position. Schumer was not happy with this, saying "Trump extended an olive branch to us Democrats with her, this was a golden opportunity to keep the Department of Education run by a pro-Common Core leader. Now he's going to likely appoint someone fully on his side who can get through the Senate with mostly Republican yes votes." Indeed, Trump nominated Betsy DeVos instead, and she did get confirmed. William Pryor is filibustered for nomination to SCOTUS, but is ultimately confirmed as the filibuster ends. Pryor is seen as a "mainstream choice" as he is a federal judge, but Democrats warn against Senators being named to the Court. Trump assembles his Justice and State Departments, with US Attorneys and Ambassadors named (not going through all the names). Most of his inner circle made the cabinet, with three notable exceptions: Joe Arpaio and Chris Christie (due to pending charges) and Newt Gingrich, who shocked America by stating he would not take a job in the Trump administration, but remain close to Trump.

[Heisenberg]

Congressional Leadership
House
Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA)
Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

Senate
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX)
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL)

Party Leadership: Despite all the controversies, Congressman Keith Ellison (D-MN) ascends to the chairmanship of the DNC. Democrats clearly take a more far left platform, while selecting a Midwesterner, who is African-American and Muslim. Republicans select Ronna Romney McDaniel, chair of the Michigan Republican Party to succeed Reince Priebus as RNC Chair, becoming the first woman to hold that job since 1977 and the second overall.

Special Elections: Republicans hold ND-AL, AL-04, KS-04, and also win back the Louisiana Treasurer’s Office with State Rep. John Schroder. The office was briefly held for a few months by a Democrat some dude, who was an aide to John Bel Edwards and an appointed placeholder. Democrats also hold CA-34 (vacated by Xavier Becerra who became California’s Attorney General) with State Assembly Speaker John Perez.

Other Changes: Iowa has a new Governor: Kim Reynolds, after Terry Branstad resigned to become Ambassador to China. Reynolds plans to run for reelection in 2018, and appoints Pat Grassley as her Lieutenant Governor. It is clear that the appointment of Grassley is to bring him further into the spotlight; while the Lieutenant Governor does not have much power, it is considered relatively high profile and Grassley is seen as a very likely candidate in 2022 to replace his grandfather.
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi is appointed to lead the National Drug Control Office.  Former Bondi staffer Tyler Cathey (R) is appointed by Gov. Scott as the state’s new AG.
One of the more notable later appointments, Dana Rohrabacher is appointed to be Ambassador to Russia. His seat in Orange County is historically Republican-leaning, but swung hard against Trump. The special election will be no sure GOP hold, but Republicans do have a slight advantage because Democrats have almost no bench. The special election is almost certain to be a referendum on Trump, and a good early test to see if Republican collapse in Orange County will continue.

Supreme Court: Anthony Kennedy has announced that he will retire in July 2017, just before his 81st Birthday, citing his desire to enjoy the final years of his life in retirement and spend more time with his family. The replacement will be very critical, as Kennedy has been widely considered the swing Justice for a long time. Conservatives are excited about the likely possibility of having a solid majority, but Democrats remind them "what goes around, comes around," reminding Republicans that they "stole" Merrick Garland's seat. The Republicans say that Kennedy's situation is different, since he is voluntarily retiring in an odd-numbered year. Democrats vow to block anyone they view as "too extreme" and "out of the mainstream."

The next update will go over policy early in Trump’s term, and preview 2017 state elections and the critical CA-48 Special Election.
Feel free to comment, and give names of potential CA-48 candidates from both parties.

[wjx987]

Democrat Mayor of Huntington Beach Jim Katapodis

Republican Fmr. Representative and 2016 candidate (switched parties back to GOP) Loretta Sanchez

[Heisenberg]

I can't imagine Kennedy voluntarily leaving under Trump and a Republican senate.  Kennedy and Trump have basically the exact opposite ideology on every major issue the court has taken up in recent years, save for gay rights.  I think his ideal scenario is Republican president with Democratic senate, but that will happen in 2023 at the earliest.  I still think he would prefer holding out for the possibility of Dem president/GOP senate in 2021.  

Kennedy retires here due to family, a wish to enjoy the last years of his life in private, and an unfavorable Democratic map in 2018. He and Thomas work out a deal behind the scenes to avoid a double vacancy: he retires in before the midterms, expecting Republicans to have at leas minor gains, and Thomas waits after, expecting (though not guaranteed) a more friendly Senate. Plus, there is still a filibuster for SCOTUS nominees, and Chuck Schumer releases a statement

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Special: CA-48:
Travis Allen: 39%
Debbie Cook: 38%
Others: 23%
Former Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook, who lost to Rohrabacher in 2008, makes another go for this D-trending seat. She only narrowly lost to State Assemblyman Travis Allen. Allen, thought to be a good fit for the area, was expected to do better, as Orange County was thought to remain solidly Republican downballot. The special general in November will be very closely watched, and could foreshadow the 2018 Elections and possibly whether or not 2016 realigned the party coalitions. Also in California, John Perez, newly minted Congressman resigned only months into his term for health reasons after suffering a major heart attack. Antonio Villaraigosa, pulling a Garamendi by running for Congress instead of facing an uphill battle for governor, instantly cleared the field and is expected to easily be victorious in November and easily win a large majority with only token opposition from 2012 Candidate Stephen Smith, a beyond hopeless Republican.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republican Fmr. Representative and 2016 candidate (switched parties back to GOP) Loretta Sanchez

I could certainly see that happening. Among other news, Bigfoot and the King of the Zombies are enjoying tea time.

[GoTfan]

This is actually a pretty skillful play by Schumer. It shows him as leading the fight to prevent a Supreme Court stacked with conservatives.

Then again, Schumer strikes me as a guy who knows the way the winds are blowing in the Democratic Party.

[Heisenberg]

Trump's First Year In Office

Trump's first year saw a lot of work done with him and the 115th Congress. In addition to deregulation, a major legislative achievement was tax reform. While there were no tariffs (as Trump initially wanted), a border adjustment tax was adopted instead. The corporate tax rate fell to 20% (still higher than the 15% Trump wanted, but a big victory for him nonetheless), and unemployment fell, as the bleeding of American manufacturing slowed down. The US did not ratify the TPP, as expected, and went underway with new negotiations. Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs in the US started to gradually go back up. The Dow Jones hit 20,000 for the first time ever in mid January.
With a polarized nation, his approvals are above the water, but just barely.
Trump's Approvals (RCP Average)
Approve: 50.2%
Disapprove: 49.8
The proposed Term Limits Amendment drafted by Ted Cruz and Ron DeSantis failed big, as expected, with Mitch McConnell refusing to even put it up for a floor vote in the Senate. At the Energy Department, Kevin Cramer suddenly resigned as Secretary (effective June 2018) to run for US Senate. The campaign has quickly become surprisingly ugly, and it should be noted that Heitkamp (a finalist for Agriculture Secretary) occasionally broke with Democrats to help advance some of the Trump agenda. The size of the Department has been shrunk and Trump is said to eventually look to abolish the department, with the nuclear program roles being transferred to the Department of Defense, and the rest being merged with the Department of the Interior. This is the first step of Trump's plan to make the government smaller, more efficient, and less costly. The election is expected to turn into a referendum on Donald Trump, who won the state overwhelmingly in 2016.
On Healthcare, a measure was passed that ended taxpayer funding of Planned Parenthood, with the money transferred to other women's health clinics that do not perform abortions. Democrats also introduced legislation to repeal the Hyde Amendment, but that went nowhere, as expected. Republicans also brought up a bill that would repeal Obamacare and included a replacement. It passed the House, but failed to pass the filibuster in the Senate.

The Judiciary: Trump appointments gradually shift the courts back to the right, slowly chipping away a major part of the Obama legacy. Trump fills vacancies left not only by Reagan and Bush (both) appointments, but also a few (though not too many) previously held by Democratic appointees.
Trump nominates Dianne Sykes to fill Anthony Kennedy's seat on the Supreme Court. In spite of objections from more liberal Senators, she is confirmed. giving the high Court a majority of reliably Conservative voices. One early victory for Conservatives was the nomination of Paul Clement to DC Circuit, filling the seat formerly held by Judith Rogers (who succeeded Clarence Thomas on that court), who was forced to step down after suffering serious injuries from a nasty fall.

Notable Circuit Court Nominations:
Don Willett and Halil Ozerden to 5th Circuit
Amul Thapar, Joan Larsen, and Robert Young, Jr. to 6th Circuit
Mac Davis to 7th Circuit (Sykes's seat)
Federico Moreno finally gets elevated to the 11th Circuit, at the age of 65, 25 years after his failed nomination by Bush Sr. He replaces Gerald Tjoflat, the last Ford nominee on an Appellate Court. Kristi DuBose succeeds Pryor, also on the 11th Circuit.

State Governments: The results of the 2016 Elections increased the number of GOP trifectas to 25, and the number of Democratic trifectas fell to a mere 6. Notable developments: Kentucky and Missouri pass laws to become the 27th and 28th Right to Work states. Gov. Matt Bevin of Kentucky (R) also dismantles KYnect, a signature Democratic accomplishment under former Governor Steve Beshear (D). New Hampshire also tries to pass Right to Work, but it narrowly falls short in the Republican-controlled legislature. A bill with very harsh abortion restrictions was also proposed, but it got a lot of backlash from the voters and failed miserably in the legislature (not that it even had a chance with a pro-choice governor). Gov. Chris Sununu (R) opens up low approval ratings. In Connecticut and Kansas, Dan Malloy and Sam Brownback, seen as a bold progressive and a bold conservative, respectively, now face less-friendly legislatures after voters did not like their agendas, perceived as too radical. In Connecticut, Republicans lead the generic gubernatorial ballot for 2018 by 8, and in Kansas, Democrats do by 5, in spite of both states' partisan leanings. And in California, one of the few remaining Democratic trifectas, a lot of action has been going on. The legislature has Democratic supermajorities, and Xavier Becerra, the state's Attorney General, promises to fight hard against the Trump administration, particularly on regulation and immigration. A movement to secede even appears, but an actual Calexit is seen as extremely unlikely.

Next Update: 2017 Election Previews!

[DPKdebator]

Looks great!

[Heisenberg]

2017 Elections

New Jersey Governor:
Republican Primary:
Jack Ciattarelli: 88%
Others: 12%

Democratic Primary:
Phil Murphy: 52%
John Wisniewski: 27%
Raymond Lesniak: 13%
Others: 8%

Ciattarelli had the advantage of not having a contested primary, but the state's partisan leanings and unpopularity of outgoing Republican governor Chris Christie are against him. Phil Murphy, in spite of attacks comparing him to unpopular former Governor Jon Corzine (who Christie defeated in 2009) and a bruising primary where he eventually pulled away, has a massive amount of wealth and the Democratic lean of the state on his side. Likely D.

Virginia Governor:
Democratic Primary:
Ralph Northam: 52%
Tom Perriello: 45%
Others: 3%

Republican Primary:
Ed Gillespie: 78%
Corey Stewart: 16%
Others: 6%

In what is clearly the more competitive of the two gubernatorial races, Ralph Northam was thought to have a large advantage due to not having a contested primary, but that changed when Tom Perriello  suddenly entered the race in January 2016, running to Northam's left. On the other side of the aisle, most competition cleared the field and endorsed Gillespie, and Stewart, the only serious challenger, was though to turn it into a proxy battle between the Trump and establishment wings of the party. Instead, he made many gaffes on the campaign trail and self-destructed, giving Gillespie an easy primary win. Ironically, this is the reverse of what was expected, as the Republicans had the clear field and Democrats had a hard-fought primary where Northam prevailed even as Perriello almost closed the gap. Pure Toss-up.
In the downballot races, lots is also going on. For Lieutenant Governor, Bryce Reeves and Jill Vogel fought against each other in a bitter Republican primary. Delegate Glenn Davis of Virginia Beach found an opening and won the nomination. He faces Democrat Justin Fairfax in the general election. Pure Toss-up.
Mark Herring was all but assumed to be a shoo-in for reelection, especially when Rob Bell, thought to be the strongest Republican, dropped out of the race, leaving two weak candidates. That all changed when Mark Obenshain, who lost to Herring four years ago in a squeaker, was convinced to run in a rematch of the 2013 Election. Pure Toss-up.

The Virginia races will be a test to see if Virginia really has become a Democratic state, or if Trump was a bad fit and/or Tim Kaine just had a strong home state effect.

State Legislative Elections in New Jersey (both Houses) and Virginia (lower house only) will also take place, as are Special Congressional Elections for MN-05 and CA-34, (both Safe D, D nominees Peggy Flanagan and Antonio Villaraigosa, respectively, are basically shoo-ins).

[Heisenberg]

2017 Elections: Dems win NJ Trifecta, GOP Sweeps Virginia, Democrats Hold Both House Seats.
In New Jersey, Democrat Phil Murphy prevails, winning 52-44 over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. This comes as no surprise, given the state's partisan leanings, Murphy's massive wealth, Ciattarelli's health problems, and Christie's unpopularity.
Democrats retain control of both legislative chambers, but Republicans do pick up Senate District 2, narrowing Democratic control to 23-17, a bright spot for the GOP as the state puts the Christie years behind.


Virginia: Republicans win back the trifecta and show that the state is not at all gone. Black turnout fell, and Democrats failed to replicate Clinton's NOVA margins. However, all three victories were narrow and hard-fought, which does show that the pre-2006 Virginia is gone.

Governor:
Ed Gillespie: 48.7%
Ralph Northam: 47.6%
Others: 3.7%

Gillespie, ironically, ended up having a clear primary, and Northam, did not. Nobody would have guessed that a year ago. Gillespie built of a really strong ground game (which almost led him to upset Warner in 2014), which was a little too much for Northam (associated with unpopular outgoing Gov. Terry McAuliffe) to overcome.

Lieutenant Governor:
Glenn Davis: 50.1%
Justin Fairfax: 48.9%
Others: 1.0
Despite having an African-American statewide candidate, Democrats were still unable to replicate Obama Presidential turnout in this purple state, not surprising since it is an off-year. Despite the competitive primary, Davis prevailed with help from ticket-splitting Northam voters in Virginia Beach to make up for Gillespie/Fairfax voters in Loudoun and Prince William Counties.


What goes around comes around, as Mark Obenshain won the rematch by a slimmer margin than Herring did last time, a mere 738 votes separating the two.
Attorney General:
Obenshain: 49.61% WINNER
Herring: 49.59%
Others: 0.8%

One should really note the difference in the coalitions: Reeves and Obenshain won by running up the margins outside NOVA, and doing better than Gillespie in the Hampton Roads area. Obenshain, who ran up massive margins in the rural areas, flipped notably Nelson and Caroline counties (Herring won both in 2013, Trump won both in 2016 even with Kaine on the Democratic ticket), while Gillespie overperformed in Northern Virginia, and outright won Loudoun County. There was not enough ticket splitting, however, to keep the same party from winning all three races. All in all, November 7, 2017 was a great night for Virginia Republicans, who showed that they are still well alive.
Despite losing all three statewide races (by a combined margin of less than 2.5%), Democrats gain two seats in the House of Delegates, narrowing the Republican majority to 64-36. The State Senate is not up for election until 2019.)

Governor:


Lieutenant Governor:


Attorney General:

CA-34: Antonio Villaraigosa, wins seat to succeed Perez, who resigned after being hospitalized for a heart attack. D Hold. 2017 is the year of three CA-34 Representatives!
MN-05: Peggy Flanagan handily defeats Frank Drake to succeed Ellison. D Hold.

CA-48: Allen narrowly wins, but Cook vows to return for a rematch.

[Heisenberg]

End of 2017:

Budget: The 2017 Budget was approved, no shutdown despite some progressives attempting to do so (my my, the tables have turned).

Key Highlights:
Planned Parenthood defunded, funds transferred to smaller hospitals that do not perform abortions
Manufacturing of new military equipment authorized (modernization, replacing outdated machinery)
$50 billion infrastructure package
Construction of the wall begins (first in parts of AZ and NM)
Less funding of public education (in preparation of moving education back to the states).
NPR and PBS privatized
A few programs, such as National Endowments of the Arts and Humanities eliminated

Trump did have a net $1.25 addition to the debt, but says that eventually the policies will promote more economic growth and lead the way to more spending cuts by making government more efficient without much harm to services. His economic advisers expect that in the grand scheme of things, over the next 10 years federal spending will drop by at least $10.5 trillion if things move forward on the path planned.

Next update: 2018 Previews!

[Gass3268]

No offense, but some of the shades on your VA maps are off.

[Heisenberg]

No offense, but some of the shades on your VA maps are off.

Yeah, I know, and I'm sorry. I literally threw them together pretty quickly.