Districts where Republicans underperformed

[ElectionsGuy]

Again, due to the Democratic trend nationally of college educated suburbs to the Democrats, some Republicans underperformed. Here are some of them.

FL-07

Murphy: 181,758 (51.5%)
Mica: 171,412 (48.5%)

In my opinion, this was the most shocking house result of the election. I thought Mica was a good fit, I don't even know if Clinton won this one, but nonetheless he got squeaked out and at best performed only slightly better than Trump.

FL-27

Ros-Lehtinen: 157,763 (54.9%)
Fuhrman: 129,548 (45.1%)

Ros-Lehtinen has had no problem winning in landslides in her Democratic leaning Cuban districts before, until now. It appears her popularity is rubbing off with polarization.

AL-02

Roby: 134,450 (54.6%)
Mathis: 111,640 (45.4%)

This one is a complete mystery to me, a 63% Romney district with no Trump weaknesses. Roby has to be an exceptionally bad candidate or something?

TX-07

Culberson: 143,369 (56.2%)
Cargas: 111,774 (43.8%)

A great example of what challenges the Texas GOP will have to face in the future holding on to their edge in the state. This was at least 59% Romney in 2012 and Trump undoubtedly dragged him down in this suburban Houston seat.

NJ-05

Gottheimer: 156,863 (50.5%)
Garrett: 146,643 (47.2%)

We knew Garrett was somewhat of a bad candidate, but comparing to everything else I certainly didn't expect this to be one of the few defeats. Trump probably even carried the district, but nontheless an obvious under performance.

CA-49

Issa: 102,953 (51.0%)
Applegate: 98,867 (49.0%)

We saw early signs in the primary, but the possibility of Issa losing is kind of mindblowing. Certainly a D trending area of Orange and San Diego that Republicans are going to have a hard time in the next few years holding on to.

[PAK Man]

FL-07

Murphy: 181,758 (51.5%)
Mica: 171,412 (48.5%)

In my opinion, this was the most shocking house result of the election. I thought Mica was a good fit, I don't even know if Clinton won this one, but nonetheless he got squeaked out and at best performed only slightly better than Trump.

According to Sabato, Mica was not taking his reelection seriously, and apparently hadn't even hired a campaign manager. His district was redrawn into one that Obama just barely won. He also hadn't had a serious reelection challenge in years. It's especially fascinating when you realize Democrats almost didn't contest this seat (Murphy entered on the last day of filing).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now THAT is a shocking result. If Democrats had actually gotten a serious challenger, that might have spelled trouble for her.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Roby was one of the first Republicans to disavow Trump after the tape got leaked. She said she wouldn't vote for him, and there was a revolt among conservatives in her district. who voted write-in candidates instead of Roby. Probably didn't hurt that her opponent wasn't actually a Some Dude (he was a former state rep.)

[Kingpoleon]

Ros-Lehtinehen would have held on no matter what. Did she outperform Trump?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Ros-Lehtinehen would have held on no matter what. Did she outperform Trump?

Obama won her district 53%-46% in 2012, and since Miami-Dade swung Democratic this year it's likely that Hillary won it by a comfortable margin.   

[publicunofficial]

Would definitely be interesting to see how IRL does against a well-supported Cuban-American challenger. Perhaps running on a campaign of her "Supporting President Trump's agenda" and being in DC for decades.

Fuhrman, from what I understand, didn't get a lot of DCCC support but was able to self-fund his campaign.

[Miles]

FL-27

Ros-Lehtinen: 157,763 (54.9%)
Fuhrman: 129,548 (45.1%)

Ros-Lehtinen has had no problem winning in landslides in her Democratic leaning Cuban districts before, until now. It appears her popularity is rubbing off with polarization.

I was expecting Curbelo to win when the Dems nominated Garcia, but Curbelo actually ran ahead of IRL.