The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

A new ACA poll shows 61% of voters will blame Trump an the GOP if Obamacare "imploded" only 31% would blame Obama an dems https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/849376829802729473/photo/1

[Virginiá]

A new ACA poll shows 61% of voters will blame Trump an the GOP if Obamacare "imploded" only 31% would blame Obama an dems https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/849376829802729473/photo/1

That sounds about right. Whatever happens to the ACA, it is on Republicans at this point, whether one thinks that is fair or not. They can't pass the buck - not after all their rhetoric over the past 8 years, and the fact that they have unified control now.

Trump can *try* and dodge this bullet, but it won't work. That is the downside of holding the White House, and worse yet, having unified control. When voters need someone to blame, they often look to the top.

[Crumpets]

First time Trump has been under 40 in the RCP average.

[Dr. Arch]

First time Trump has been under 40 in the RCP average.

The crash continues.

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted April 2-4:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2f8nhwlimu/econToplines.pdf

Trump job approval/disapproval:
40/48% for -8%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 30 - Apr. 1:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27416

Trump job approval/disapproval:
47/49% for -2%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 30 - Apr. 1:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27416

Trump job approval/disapproval:
47/49% for -2%

Crosstabs:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-3e68-d4bd-a5df-befb5bd70002

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -5
Northeast: -13
South: +7
West: -6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +7
blacks: -54
Hispanics: -9

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -3
$50-100k: -2
over $100k: +2

10% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  10% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup:

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

It should be
Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

No?

[Gass3268]

Gallup:

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

It should be
Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

No?

Haha yes

[I Won - Get Over It]

Ipsos, MARCH 30-APRIL 3 vs MARCH 25-29

All Adults, 2100, http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
46 (+1)
50 (+3)

LV is very unstable (due to sample size?). +10% at March 23, -14% at March 28, -1% at Aprils 3 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approval: 42% (+3)
Disapproval: 55% (-3)

Surging!

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup:

Approval: 42% (+3)
Disapproval: 55% (-3)

Surging!

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 30 - Apr. 1:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27416

Trump job approval/disapproval:
47/49% for -2%

His first time underwater with them. I think they were the last holdout.

Nope, he was already underwater with them in their previous poll, which had him at -5:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5588116#msg5588116

So this latest poll is actually an improvement.

[Tender Branson]

I was watching the Trump-Abdullah press conference recently and it was Obama-style.

Did Trump take any meds recently ? He's talking more coherently these days ...

[Inmate Trump]

I was watching the Trump-Abdullah press conference recently and it was Obama-style.

Did Trump take any meds recently ? He's talking more coherently these days ...

That means a meltdown is imminent.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen


Total, -8:
46 (+3)
54 (-3)

Strongly, -15:
28 (+1)
43 (-3)


Surging indeed

[ProgressiveCanadian]

I was watching the Trump-Abdullah press conference recently and it was Obama-style.

Did Trump take any meds recently ? He's talking more coherently these days ...

Maybe they put them in his drink.

[KingSweden]

Gallup:

Approval: 42% (+3)
Disapproval: 55% (-3)

Surging!

Oh man, Surge... the crack to Mountain Dew's cocaine

[I Won - Get Over It]

A new ACA poll shows 61% of voters will blame Trump an the GOP if Obamacare "imploded" only 31% would blame Obama an dems https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/849376829802729473/photo/1

That sounds about right. Whatever happens to the ACA, it is on Republicans at this point, whether one thinks that is fair or not. They can't pass the buck - not after all their rhetoric over the past 8 years, and the fact that they have unified control now.

Trump can *try* and dodge this bullet, but it won't work. That is the downside of holding the White House, and worse yet, having unified control. When voters need someone to blame, they often look to the top.

The big question is if the same can and will be applied to a stronger economy. If economy will colapse it is for sure, but what if it will be just pretty good.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/private-payrolls-grew-263k-in-march-vs--185k-est-:-adp.html

Right now it probably does not matter much, but if this trend will keep on, I can see Trump benefitting from it.

[Virginiá]

The big question is if the same can and will be applied to a stronger economy. If economy will colapse it is for sure, but what if it will be just pretty good.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/private-payrolls-grew-263k-in-march-vs--185k-est-:-adp.html

Right now it probably does not matter much, but if this trend will keep on, I can see Trump benefitting from it.

He surely can. The incumbent party also enjoys the benefits of a good economy, even if they had nothing to do with it.  It's possible if Republicans/Trump get their act together and pass tax cuts and infrastructure spending, they could give a small, temporary boost to it as well. However, I personally still think the risk of some sort of recession over the next 4 years is considerable. The current economic expansion is getting close to historic levels. I know they don't just "die" of old age, so to speak, but the historical pattern is worrying.

[Person Man]

The big question is if the same can and will be applied to a stronger economy. If economy will colapse it is for sure, but what if it will be just pretty good.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/private-payrolls-grew-263k-in-march-vs--185k-est-:-adp.html

Right now it probably does not matter much, but if this trend will keep on, I can see Trump benefitting from it.

He surely can. The incumbent party also enjoys the benefits of a good economy, even if they had nothing to do with it.  It's possible if Republicans/Trump get their act together and pass tax cuts and infrastructure spending, they could give a small, temporary boost to it as well. However, I personally still think the risk of some sort of recession over the next 4 years is considerable. The current economic expansion is getting close to historic levels. I know they don't just "die" of old age, so to speak, but the historical pattern is worrying.

For what it's worth, The Australian economy hasn't had a recession since the early 90s but we never had expansion longer than 10 years. People think that since Trump is a billionaire, that he will be good with everyone else's money. Especially people who are professional money people. But it just seems like common sense that just because you have a lot of money doesn't mean you will make money for other people. In fact, the opposite is often true. This speaks nothing to policy but I don't see how the economy can be stable through so many things that destabilize the global environment where people work.

[Klartext89]

Mid 40 (and only down single digits) nationwide at the Midterms would be okay cause I still think that the numbers are skewed towards the Dems because of the sample sizes which again overestimate Dem turnout at the polls. The low information, low energy voters who won't turn out are leaning towards disapproval because they mostly get their "information" from the mass media which is heavily against Trump.

So, Mid 40 would eventually be something like a tie with again California, Illinois, New York skewing it nationawide, so in the important Senate States like Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio it will be a 50+ approval with the electorate what will be hard for Dems.

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

[pbrower2a]

Mid 40 (and only down single digits) nationwide at the Midterms would be okay cause I still think that the numbers are skewed towards the Dems because of the sample sizes which again overestimate Dem turnout at the polls. The low information, low energy voters who won't turn out are leaning towards disapproval because they mostly get their "information" from the mass media which is heavily against Trump.

So, Mid 40 would eventually be something like a tie with again California, Illinois, New York skewing it nationwide, so in the important Senate States like Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio it will be a 50+ approval with the electorate what will be hard for Dems.

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

I have seen little that  he has done right so far with supposedly all the assets that a new President could have even if I make allowances for my partisanship. He so far has created rifts in his own Party between the Big Government right-wingers and the comparative libertarians while solidifying his liberal opposition.   

So long as an economic downturn does not hit early and hard he won;t have that as a problem. It takes some time for people to recognize that the economy has collapsed -- Hoover got a few months of leeway -- just not enough. A foreign-policy fiasco? Approval ratings for Jimmy Carter went up as Americans rallied behind him -- but we know where that went. 444 days were just too long.

So where will the approval rating of President Trump be in November 2018? If it is high, then his success will be the ruin of the Democrats  in the Senate so that all that they can stop will be Constitutional Amendments. But if it is low, then people will turn to House elections to put a check on an unpopular agenda.

Millions of Americans have a visceral hatred for him, and if he is to become effective he must resolve that. Can he work miracles? I doubt it.

The President's Party usually loses some seats in the House, at the least. The Senate?  Probably not this time, as there are no easy pickings for Democrats and plenty of shaky seats.   

[jamestroll]

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

You think the GOP will gain 56 seats lol!

[Person Man]

Mid 40 (and only down single digits) nationwide at the Midterms would be okay cause I still think that the numbers are skewed towards the Dems because of the sample sizes which again overestimate Dem turnout at the polls. The low information, low energy voters who won't turn out are leaning towards disapproval because they mostly get their "information" from the mass media which is heavily against Trump.

So, Mid 40 would eventually be something like a tie with again California, Illinois, New York skewing it nationwide, so in the important Senate States like Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio it will be a 50+ approval with the electorate what will be hard for Dems.

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

I have seen little that  he has done right so far with supposedly all the assets that a new President could have even if I make allowances for my partisanship. He so far has created rifts in his own Party between the Big Government right-wingers and the comparative libertarians while solidifying his liberal opposition.   

So long as an economic downturn does not hit early and hard he won;t have that as a problem. It takes some time for people to recognize that the economy has collapsed -- Hoover got a few months of leeway -- just not enough. A foreign-policy fiasco? Approval ratings for Jimmy Carter went up as Americans rallied behind him -- but we know where that went. 444 days were just too long.

So where will the approval rating of President Trump be in November 2018? If it is high, then his success will be the ruin of the Democrats  in the Senate so that all that they can stop will be Constitutional Amendments. But if it is low, then people will turn to House elections to put a check on an unpopular agenda.

Millions of Americans have a visceral hatred for him, and if he is to become effective he must resolve that. Can he work miracles? I doubt it.

The President's Party usually loses some seats in the House, at the least. The Senate?  Probably not this time, as there are no easy pickings for Democrats and plenty of shaky seats.   

At this point, I can almost believe that Trump will be at large for a while because Bush was started out unpopular and was eventually popular...or at least Democrats were unpopular for a disproportionate anount of time. We will never know if it was because he was solely because he was a "war president" or if Democrats were really that off point with style and policies.