The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[The_Doctor]

Mid 40 (and only down single digits) nationwide at the Midterms would be okay cause I still think that the numbers are skewed towards the Dems because of the sample sizes which again overestimate Dem turnout at the polls. The low information, low energy voters who won't turn out are leaning towards disapproval because they mostly get their "information" from the mass media which is heavily against Trump.

So, Mid 40 would eventually be something like a tie with again California, Illinois, New York skewing it nationawide, so in the important Senate States like Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio it will be a 50+ approval with the electorate what will be hard for Dems.

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

I can agree with this, your partisan slant aside and rant about polling. (There's no skew to the Democrats). However a low to mid 40s yields victory only in solid Red states while preserving the Democrats in swing states. Meaning at best the Republicans will gain only 4-5 seats.

Red is where I think you're just spinning partisan silliness and blue where I agree.

[publicunofficial]

LIBERULS WILL LOSE 100 SEATS BECAUSE REAL AMERICANS LOVE TRUMP AND HATE CUCK SJWS

[Ebsy]

Trump could improve by 5 more points (unlikely) and still have the lowest approvals of any president in his 100 days. 2018 is somehow going to be a shock to some of you.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen,

Total, -8:
46 (-/-)
54 (-/-)

Strongly, -18:
27 (-1)
45 (+2)





Gallup
41 (-1)
53 (+1)

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (4/03/17-4/05/17):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Source

[Ebsy]

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-3/

Gravis (gag) poll of Montana has Trump at 50% approve, 42% disapprove. Not good!

[American2020]

Even in Utah

http://www.sltrib.com/home/5143710-155/poll-trumps-support-in-utah-back

[Dr. Arch]

In the era of a nationalist GOP, is Utah the reverse WV? Time will tell.

[GlobeSoc]

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-3/

Gravis (gag) poll of Montana has Trump at 50% approve, 42% disapprove. Not good!

Still pretty bad for trump.

[pbrower2a]

We have two polls of states well to the Right of America as a whole: Gravis in Montana (beggars can't be choosers at this early stage)  and Dan Jones in Utah. I also have Washington State here.

There are no April Fool's jokes on this map.

Montana, Gravis:



That's a big chunk of territory on the map -- but only three electoral votes. Montana has the fourth-largest land mass in America, and even Rhode Island has more electoral votes.  

  

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http://www.sltrib.com/home/5143710-155/poll-trumps-support-in-utah-back

I somehow missed the earlier poll, which I really wish that I had a chance to show. I can show only one poll, and the later poll from the same pollster takes precedence. Although I can show the older one in "favorability" with an asterisk this one time.

In a true binary race with this level of support, President Trump still gets about 53%  of the vote -- but he could lose Utah if he gets a strong challenge from a conservative alternative more libertarian in economics and having a lifestyle and business connections closer to LDS values. As in 2016, he cannot assume Utah as given.  In a true binary election (which the Presidential race in Utah was not), a Republican needs to win about 65% of the vote in Utah to have a chance to win. I would still project him to get 53% of the vote in Utah (add 6% to approval under normal circumstances). President Trump will need Utah to win in 2020, and he will need to win it big.


Washington -- Elway poll ...40-56. That one slipped in while I was posting this post's predecessor.  

C'mon, Ohio!


Favorability:

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[publicunofficial]

Washington-Elway poll.

Respondents disapprove of Trump's leadership: 56/40

Respondents believe is bring "the wrong type of changes": 46/34

[pbrower2a]

Some conclusions: Utah is U-nique... but this Utah poll and the tepid win of Trump in Arizona in 2016 (Arizona is of course a much bigger prize in 2020) suggest that Arizona is potentially big trouble for Republicans in the next few years. If Mormon support for Trump is weak for a right-wing Republican among Mormons in Utah, one can expect much the same in Arizona among Mormons just as Mexican-Americans despise him about as much as blacks despise a segregationist pol. You can now reasonably count on Nevada and New Mexico being in the bag for any opponent of President Trump in 2020. Trump will win Idaho and Wyoming, of course, but I cannot any conclusion about North or South Dakota  based on the poll in Montana any more than I could draw any conclusion about either Dakota from neighboring Minnesota.

Based upon prior performance of the states in recent elections (2000 or later), an estimate of 40% approval for President Trump nationwide, and existing polls for 21 states (some of which allow for conclusions of analogous results in other states) I can make predictions on how most states will go:

STRONG TRUMP (10% or larger margin)

Alabama
Arkansas
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska (except NE-02)
Oklahoma
North Dakota
South Dakota
Tennessee
West Virginia
Wyoming

WEAK TRUMP 5% to 9%

Alaska
Indiana
Louisiana
Missouri
Texas
Utah

BARELY TRUMP (under 5%)

Georgia?
South Carolina?

I DON'T HAVE A CLUE YET:

ME-02
NE-02
Ohio

BARELY TO A DEMOCRATIC OPPONENT (under 5%)

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
North Carolina
Wisconsin

WEAKLY TO A DEMOCRATIC OPPONENT (5% to 9%)

Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
Pennsylvania

STRONGLY TO A DEMOCRATIC OPPONENT (10% or more)

California
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine (except ME-02)
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington







 

[Sorenroy]

It will be very interesting to see what the missile strike in Syria does to Trump's image. Can't imagine it will be bad.

[swf541]

He'll probably get a boost for a week or so unless he continues on if Iran or Hezbollah (or the SAA) attempt to retaliate in which case i think it could spike

[pbrower2a]

He has his war. Americans love war until they start getting filled body bags  back.

[Hindsight was 2020]

But all his alt-right buddies are pissed so this night hurt his approval

[Dr. Arch]

Bold Prediction: This'll hurt his approvals.

[publicunofficial]

I mean given how fast things are moving, maybe this whole thing is a disaster by Sunday.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 45% (-1)
Dissaprove: 55% (+1)

-10

[Gass3268]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 45% (-1)
Dissaprove: 55% (+1)

-10

Welcome to Atlas!

[Dr. Arch]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 45% (-1)
Dissaprove: 55% (+1)

-10

Keep on keeping on, Trump the warhawk. And welcome!

[Wiz in Wis]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 45% (-1)
Dissaprove: 55% (+1)

-10

Keep on keeping on, Trump the warhawk. And welcome!

TBH, these probably were complete before the airstrikes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 40% (-1%)
Disapprove 54% (+1%)

[Stranger in a strange land]

He might get a small, short-lived bump from the missile strikes, but it'll dissipate after a week or two and it'll be a long term net negative if mission creep sets in.

[Person Man]

Like what? Go to a level that makes him borderline polarizing than unpopular? Maybe 44-45%?