The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[OneJ]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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We've seen Trump underwater like this in Wisconsin before so that -7 margin isn't surprising to me. I am skeptical of Ohio since we seen him not doing well in Iowa (which swung big league for Trump). FL seems about right to me.

[Ronnie]

I think it's best to take that poll with a grain of salt.  It's still too early to determine who the "likely" voters in the 2018 midterms will be.

[Gass3268]

CBS:

41% Approve (-2)
53% Disapprove (+4)

Source

[I Won - Get Over It]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?

Landline only, and thus a distorted sample. Multitudes are dropping or have no longer had landlines.  Many people are 'cell phones only' now. Obsolete technologies tend to better represent older, poorer, and more rural populations.

It's also a 'likely midterm voters' poll. Modeling for likely voters  based upon electorates of the past ten years have tended strongly Republican, which well fits Republican wave elections of 2010 and 2014... and 2016 somewhat well. (2016 would look like a wave result if it hadn;t followed the 2010 midterm election).     

I saw some loaded questions, typically asking whether President Trump or politicians in Congress lie or are misguided. The observation is basically that they are all crooks, liars, or fools.

These are questions of favorability. Favorability is becoming less relevant as time passes.

This suggests a response about approval:

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This isn't quite approval, but it shows a few things. If Floridians are most 'bullish' on President Trump, then this measure is likely similar for Ohio and less so for Pennsylvania (but we don't know). We have a measure for  Wisconsin, and it does not look good.

So I can get an estimate of 37% Ohio approval for  President Trump. That's the only approval rating that I can use, as I have nothing on Ohio yet. Ohio and Florida are surprisingly similar in their voting. I think that the 37% is reasonable enough for Pennsylvania, but the low estimate in Wisconsin looks suspect. Maybe Wisconsin voters are getting unusually sick of Donald Trump and the GOP  -- including their very right-wing Governor.

Nobody can now predict how successful President Trump will be at this stage except to expect more of the same, as I do. He seems a rigid thinker, and I expect him to be the same extremist as he has governed so far. I'll go with the 37% for Ohio as an estimate of approval for now because beggars can't be choosers.  I will not change my ratings for the three other states for which I have less 'messy' polls of approval. I can still  show 'favorability' polls that still come out with the caveat that they are generally reliable only when a politician has yet to fully offer and seek implementation of his agenda.   

     

[heatcharger]

[pbrower2a]

Favorability:

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rasmussen (4/26/17) Trump down more.

Approve: 46% (-1)

Dissaprove: 54% (+1)

He went from a +2 approval to a -8 in two days.

[Wiz in Wis]

CSB:

41% Approve (-2)
53% Disapprove (+4)

Source

you mean CBS

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen has an agenda. Gallup doesn't.

...I'd like to see another Ohio poll. In fact I would like to see fresh polls of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  There were recent polls of Arkansas, Texas, and Utah suggesting  that support for the President has been cratering in states that have been solidly Republican for ten (Arkansas), twenty (Texas) or sixty (Utah) years. The Firehouse poll of Wisconsin (only 27% approval, as I interpret the language) suggests a similar collapse in swing states.

There are states for which I would like to see a fresh approval poll (Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin) to see whether there is a general trend as a near-even swing or whether there we have a diminution of partisan polarization as well as a general rejection of what I see as a catastrophic failure by a President.

Am I biased? Sure. I consider Donald Trump an unmitigated disaster as President. But if President Trump had valid solutions for America's ills and to foreign threats, then we would be seeing positive approvals for him in some states  like Colorado and Virginia  that voted against him.    

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

I wonder what's causing his numbers to drop. He hasn't done anything stupid recently

It may be that 40 is his mean approval rating, all else being equal, not 43-45. Then this isn't a drop, it's a reversion.

Also, there has been a bit of AHCA chatter lately... and that issue killed him last month.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

I wonder what's causing his numbers to drop. He hasn't done anything stupid recently

Going after Obamacare a second time.

Let's see how the tax bill and the ruling on sanctuary cities goes.  The fecal material has yet to hit the fan, at least as polling goes.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?

Landline only, and thus a distorted sample. Multitudes are dropping or have no longer had landlines.  Many people are 'cell phones only' now. Obsolete technologies tend to better represent older, poorer, and more rural populations.

It's also a 'likely midterm voters' poll. Modeling for likely voters  based upon electorates of the past ten years have tended strongly Republican, which well fits Republican wave elections of 2010 and 2014... and 2016 somewhat well. (2016 would look like a wave result if it hadn;t followed the 2010 midterm election).        

'likely midterm voters' is fine with me, but landline only... It is quite stupid.

It may be that 40 is his mean approval rating, all else being equal, not 43-45. Then this isn't a drop, it's a reversion.

Also, there has been a bit of AHCA chatter lately... and that issue killed him last month.

And fail with "The Wall"

[heatcharger]

97% of Trump voters say they're satisfied with their vote according to that poll.

[Ronnie]

Also worth noting is that Trump's topline approval numbers according to the Fox poll are 45% approve to 48% disapprove.  While not exactly good, that's dramatically better for him than most other polls out there.

[pbrower2a]

Who knows who the 'likely voters' are at this point?

[Ronnie]

CNN/ORC (Conducted April 22-25):

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 54%

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/donald-trump-100-days-poll/index.html

[I Won - Get Over It]

So

Fox News(Registered Voters) April 23-25 compared to March 12-14:
45% (+2)
48% (-3)

CNN  (All adult) April 22-25 compared to March 1-4:
44% (-1)
54% (+2)

CNN  (Registered Voters) April 22-25, first time they present it:
44%
54%

YouGov  (All adult) April 23-25 compared to April 15-18:
42% (+1)
49% (-/-)

YouGov  (Registered Voters) April 23-25 compared to April 15-18:
45% (+1)
49% (-1)

Morning Consult (Registered Voters) April 20-24 compared to April 13-15:
51% (+3)
45% (-/-)

Ipsos  (All adult) April 20-24 compared to April 15-19:
40% (-2)
54% (+1)

Ipsos   (Likely Voters) April 20-24 compared to April 15-19:
43% (-4)
53% (+3)

[Wiz in Wis]

97% of Trump voters say they're satisfied with their vote according to that poll.

I wonder if that number is even really fungible, since the method is self selection. Trump voters who wouldn't vote for him again may not be likely poll takers, and may say "don't know" more often than "no"

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?

Landline only, and thus a distorted sample. Multitudes are dropping or have no longer had landlines.  Many people are 'cell phones only' now. Obsolete technologies tend to better represent older, poorer, and more rural populations.

It's also a 'likely midterm voters' poll. Modeling for likely voters  based upon electorates of the past ten years have tended strongly Republican, which well fits Republican wave elections of 2010 and 2014... and 2016 somewhat well. (2016 would look like a wave result if it hadn;t followed the 2010 midterm election).        

'likely midterm voters' is fine with me, but landline only... It is quite stupid.

It may be that 40 is his mean approval rating, all else being equal, not 43-45. Then this isn't a drop, it's a reversion.

Also, there has been a bit of AHCA chatter lately... and that issue killed him last month.

And fail with "The Wall"

It is wisest to drop a political failure. He'd be wiser to go after something else that the Ruling Elite wants -- like abolition of the minimum wage or evisceration of labor unions. It might be an unpopular measure but a political success. But we practically live in a dictatorship now. Practically -- only because of the Clinton-Obama influence on the federal courts.

Opponents cannot cut President Trump's polling numbers as much as the Tea Party could do with Obama... but they don't need to do so as much to make any re-election bid a failure.

Some of the disapproval numbers (mid-50s) portend a smashing defeat in 2020 and quite possibly a Republican loss of the House of Representatives.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

[pbrower2a]

Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

Very steady.

President Trump is going to need some miracles to get re-elected. I don't see him changing the political culture.  People who thought him a sick joke in 2016 simply consider him a monstrosity. The civilized opposition to him is now as loud as the Tea Party was against Obama at the corresponding time even if it is wittier. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

Very steady.

President Trump is going to need some miracles to get re-elected. I don't see him changing the political culture.  People who thought him a sick joke in 2016 simply consider him a monstrosity. The civilized opposition to him is now as loud as the Tea Party was against Obama at the corresponding time even if it is wittier. 

Dude come on if you don't see how easily Trump can turn out "real American" aganist Warren or how the Bernie crowd will protest vote Booker you are not paying attention

[Ronnie]

Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

Very steady.

President Trump is going to need some miracles to get re-elected. I don't see him changing the political culture.  People who thought him a sick joke in 2016 simply consider him a monstrosity. The civilized opposition to him is now as loud as the Tea Party was against Obama at the corresponding time even if it is wittier. 

Dude come on if you don't see how easily Trump can turn out "real American" aganist Warren or how the Bernie crowd will protest vote Booker you are not paying attention

Also, don't forget that quite a few people will vote for him despite disapproving of his job performance, because they don't feel they have an alternative in the Democrats.