The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[JA]

Gallup (May 11th)

41% Approve (+3)
54% Disapprove (-1)

I fail to see how anyone could honestly be liking what he is doing.

In firing Comey like a BOSS he proved his sexual prowess to the American people. Women want him, men want to be him.

Just think, if Trump had ordered Comey to the White House wherein he had setup cameras everywhere and, sitting in his chair in the Oval Office, on live television turned to Comey and exclaimed: "You're fired!" Americans would be giving him like 60% approval ratings right now.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult, May 9-11 compared to May 4-6
https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/11/partisanship-strong-factor-voters-stance-comey-firing/
RV:
45 (+1)
47 (-1)

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -3
Northeast: -9
South: +6
West: -5

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +11
blacks: -65
Hispanics: -19

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -5
$50-100k: +4
over $100k: +5

8% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  11% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[pbrower2a]

Just when I am ready to ditch favorability polls, one comes out about a State that rarely gets polled.

Oklahoma. This is a favorability poll, and not as approval  poll. 57.4-35.5.  Decimals -- yuck!

http://soonerpoll.com/after-first-100-days-majority-of-oklahoma-likely-voters-still-like-trump/

Oklahoma is probably the difference between 530 and 537 electoral votes for the Democrat in 2020.


Favorability:

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

Wow! Oklahoma is about R+20.

[Badger]

http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.

?

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Here is pdf

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/469804111621898454-f-m-poll-release-may-2017.pdf

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The only increase in polling noted is Trump "soaring" up 6 points in Allegheny County--to a whopping 31%.

This is the trip, people. Grumps, a machine that you would let yourself get trolled that easily by the biggest rag in the Northeast East.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup


40% (-1)
55% (+1)

[henster]

http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.

?

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Here is pdf

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/469804111621898454-f-m-poll-release-may-2017.pdf

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The only increase in polling noted is Trump "soaring" up 6 points in Allegheny County--to a whopping 31%.

This is the trip, people. Grumps, a machine that you would let yourself get trolled that easily by the biggest rag in the Northeast East.

F&M polls are the worst because they ask Fair/Poor and Excellent/Good instead of the simple Approve/Disapprove. 'Fair' could mean that the person thinks he's doing an OK job and approves but its lumped in with 'Poor' and interpreted as disapproval. So 37% is combined Excellent/Good but what is the Fair #? His JA could be 57%.

[pbrower2a]

True. "Fair" weather is good weather. "Fair" dealing is honest dealing, the only sort of dealing compatible with sustained business and prosperity. "Fair" trials are obviously preferable to unfair show trials, let alone lynchings, for determining what to do with a criminal suspect.  We have had a "fairness" doctrine and not a "righteousness" doctrine. 

In K-12 grading, "A" is extraordinary; "B" is "good", "C" is "average" or "fair", "D" is poor", and "E" or "F" indicates failure.  In college, the sorts of people who would get "D's" or lower in K-12 education generally are nowhere to be found. By graduate school a "C" is inadequate for progress.

A seven-year-old child who does a 'fair' performance on a violin is already above average. By adulthood that standard is inadequate. If one never got beyond that level of play one probably has some other pastime, let alone a career,  than playing a violin.

The word "fair" is thus ambiguous with respect to political performance.  If people gave school-like grades, then "A" would suggest strong approval, "B" mild approval, "C" basically undecided, "D" general disapproval, and "E" or "F" strong disapproval.   

[Ronnie]

NBC/WSJ (Conducted May 11th - May 13th)

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 54%

Favorable: 38%
Unfavorable: 52%

Also, 41% of people say they have "quite a bit of" or a "great deal of" confidence in President Trump, while 57% say they don't have much confidence or have no real confidence at all in the president.

Not approval-related, but another relevant thing in this poll is that 78% of people want an independent special investigation into Russia.  Wow!

[I Won - Get Over It]

NBC/WSJ (Conducted May 11th - May 13th)

All Adults
Approve: 39% (-1)
Disapprove: 54% (-/-)

Compared to APRIL 17-20

[Crumpets]

Trump is now at his highest disapproval yet on the RCP average (53.6%), but is still a point or so above his lowest approval - more people are making up their minds about him.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Just 2% over his all time low (42%, April 3).

[pbrower2a]

Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Really bad for the President -- considering that the pollster is Rasmussen.

Gallup
39% Approve
56% Disapprove

NBC/WSJ (Conducted May 11th - May 13th)

All Adults
Approve: 39% (-1)
Disapprove: 54% (-/-)

Compared to APRIL 17-20

The President has a huge credibility gap.

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup
38% Approve
57% Disapprove

Not totally related, but today's update also included the first negative "Economic Confidence" metric since Trump won the election. Despite the jobs numbers and all the positive economic indicators, it looks like people are souring on more than just Trump.

[Tintrlvr]

Gallup
38% Approve
57% Disapprove

Not totally related, but today's update also included the first negative "Economic Confidence" metric since Trump won the election. Despite the jobs numbers and all the positive economic indicators, it looks like people are souring on more than just Trump.

I'd be curious to see what's causing this. There was surge after Trump's election as Republicans suddenly became much more optimistic. Democrats became somewhat more pessimistic at the same time but to a lesser degree. Is the bottom falling out of Democrats' economic optimism (taking us back to pre-election levels with the parties reversed), or are Republicans less enthusiastic than they were, or something in between?

[Ariosto]

Pbrower, do you still use your original format when it comes to predicting what the next President Election might be like? I pulled the one you had back for the 2012 election, and combined it with a method that AH.COM poster Reagant had developed where he took the crosstabs from polls and input them into the FiveThirtyEight Swingometer which, after the model is corrected for errors it would have had compared to OTL, gives a rough estimate of where the States may lie on the field of battle. This is what I ended up getting when I used your method with the crosstab results of a Quinnipiac Poll, though it didn't provide a breakdown for minorities.

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Rasmussen and Gallup are probably better in terms of crosstabs, especially the latter, but I'm not a paid subscriber and so am not able to access them.

These were was the adjustment that was recommended as well in terms of how far the model was off when it was set to the actual demographics of the Presidential Election, in case your interested.

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[Virginiá]

Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Really bad for the President -- considering that the pollster is Rasmussen.

Just curious - do you happen to know what Obama's typical "strongly disapprove / approve" numbers were in 2010 & 2014?

Edit: I'd like to compare Gallup's, but from 2014, AP's Dec poll showed these sort of numbers for a 41% approve / 58% disapprove:

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK_Poll_December_2014_Politics.pdf



It's not the best, but Obama did at times post similar "strongly disapprove" numbers, but for sure Trump seems to be bringing in much more consistent and sometimes larger strongly disapprove figures than Obama did, at least depending on what polls you use to make that judgement.

[pbrower2a]

Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Really bad for the President -- considering that the pollster is Rasmussen.

Just curious - do you happen to know what Obama's typical "strongly disapprove / approve" numbers were in 2010 & 2014?

Edit: I'd like to compare Gallup's, but from 2014, AP's Dec poll showed these sort of numbers for a 41% approve / 58% disapprove:

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK_Poll_December_2014_Politics.pdf



It's not the best, but Obama did at times post similar "strongly disapprove" numbers, but for sure Trump seems to be bringing in much more consistent and sometimes larger strongly disapprove figures than Obama did, at least depending on what polls you use to make that judgement.

Note that I am talking about 2020 and not 2016.

Obama apparently never got close to the 50% level of 'strong disapproval' that I associate with Donald Trump. I am tempted to believe that 'strong approval' and 'strong disapproval' are set as if in concrete. With 'strong approval' one has some room for an occasional disappointment, perhaps with the rationale 'nobody gets everything he wants'. With 'strong disapproval' one has room for an occasional instance of something going right with such a rationale as 'a stopped clock is right twice a day'.  Less-marked approval or disapproval is shakier. Yes, it is possible that  a politician can make a complete turnaround -- or more likely that a potential voter makes a dramatic change in his core values. The latter has great significance should that here be some cultural change that changes the  core values of masses of potential voters (as with the rise of the Religious Right during the Carter Presidency).

People can occasionally harbor 'slight disapproval' for an incumbent President and still vote for him -- because the challenger is a weak campaigner, offers practically the same, or stands for things that one dislikes. Strong disapproval? You might vote for the challenger and you might not vote altogether.     

[Person Man]

Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Really bad for the President -- considering that the pollster is Rasmussen.

Just curious - do you happen to know what Obama's typical "strongly disapprove / approve" numbers were in 2010 & 2014?

Edit: I'd like to compare Gallup's, but from 2014, AP's Dec poll showed these sort of numbers for a 41% approve / 58% disapprove:

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK_Poll_December_2014_Politics.pdf



It's not the best, but Obama did at times post similar "strongly disapprove" numbers, but for sure Trump seems to be bringing in much more consistent and sometimes larger strongly disapprove figures than Obama did, at least depending on what polls you use to make that judgement.

Note that I am talking about 2020 and not 2016.

Obama apparently never got close to the 50% level of 'strong disapproval' that I associate with Donald Trump. I am tempted to believe that 'strong approval' and 'strong disapproval' are set as if in concrete. With 'strong approval' one has some room for an occasional disappointment, perhaps with the rationale 'nobody gets everything he wants'. With 'strong disapproval' one has room for an occasional instance of something going right with such a rationale as 'a stopped clock is right twice a day'.  Less-marked approval or disapproval is shakier. Yes, it is possible that  a politician can make a complete turnaround -- or more likely that a potential voter makes a dramatic change in his core values. The latter has great significance should that here be some cultural change that changes the  core values of masses of potential voters (as with the rise of the Religious Right during the Carter Presidency).

People can occasionally harbor 'slight disapproval' for an incumbent President and still vote for him -- because the challenger is a weak campaigner, offers practically the same, or stands for things that one dislikes. Strong disapproval? You might vote for the challenger and you might not vote altogether.     

46% will never vote for Trump and 40% will always? ok.

[GlobeSoc]

Place your bets on how Trump's recent stupidity will affect his numbers

[Dr. Arch]

Place your bets on how Trump's recent stupidity will affect his numbers

35% A 57% DA

[pbrower2a]

A more interesting bet will be on who becomes the next Vice-President of the United States.

This gigantic breach of national security is an impeachable offense. Are we more patriots or partisans?   

[Inmate Trump]

A more interesting bet will be on who becomes the next Vice-President of the United States.

This gigantic breach of national security is an impeachable offense. Are we more patriots or partisans?   

Unfortunately, partisans.

The Republican Congress will never impeach Trump.  They all talked so tough during the primary, but now they're all cowering to him.

Another reason I refuse to support another Republican for any office ever again.

[pbrower2a]

Place your bets on how Trump's recent stupidity will affect his numbers

33-64.

President Trump is going to start getting hit from the Right on this.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rasmussen (5/16/17) Trump keeps plummeting

Approve: 43% (-1)
Dissaprove: 57% (+1)

-14

Strongly approve: 26% (-1)
Strongly dissaprove: 47% (+1)

-21

Trump could hit the 30s with Rass by the end of the week due to the latest bombshell.