The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac

Approve 36%   
Disapprove 44%

Sad!

...but also polarized.  Republicans like him, but Democrats don't by huge margins.

Looking at Trump's personal qualities, American voters say:

    56 - 39 percent that he is not honest;
    49 - 46 percent that he has good leadership skills;
    53 - 44 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
    62 - 33 percent that he is not level-headed;
    68 - 29 percent that he is a strong person;
    65 - 32 percent that he is intelligent.

Donald Trump will do more to divide the country, rather than unite the nation, voters say 55 - 40 percent. His policies will help their personal financial situation, 31 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say they will hurt and 38 percent say they will make no difference.

[Phony Moderate]

It's depressing that Trump can at least point to some polls showing him with a positive rating while Paul Keating cannot.

Also, check out this out for historical knowledge (or lack thereof) on the part of the public (from Quinny):

Best president of past 70 years:

30 percent name Ronald Reagan;
29 percent name Barack Obama;
12 percent pick John Kennedy;
9 percent select Bill Clinton;
3 percent each for Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush;
2 percent each for Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush;

Worst president of past 70 years:
24 percent for Richard Nixon;
23 percent for Barack Obama;
22 percent for George W. Bush;
10 percent for Jimmy Carter;
5 percent for Ronald Reagan;
4 percent for Bill Clinton;
3 percent for Lyndon Johnson;
2 percent for George H.W. Bush;
1 percent for Gerald Ford;
Less than 1 percent for Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower and John Kennedy.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Quinnipiac

Approve 36%   
Disapprove 44%

Sad!

That's about where Bush was in 2007, right?  Hilarious.

[Tender Branson]

Total collapse on Rasmussen today:

From 59-41 to 55-45.

[Devout Centrist]

Total collapse on Rasmussen today:

From 59-41 to 55-45.

Why are 100% of voters firmly in either camp?

[pbrower2a]

Here's my  wish list of states for polling:

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
North Carolina*
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia*
Wisconsin

*Approval only, as I already have favorability.

[The Other Castro]

RCP now has a Trump Job Approval page.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[Devout Centrist]

Gallup shows a steep fall too....Trump is at 45/48 now.

[pbrower2a]

Here's my  wish list of states for polling:

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
North Carolina*
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia*
Wisconsin

*Approval only, as I already have favorability.

States with key Senate races, no? MO, IN, ND (rare, I know), MT

Then GA is one to watch. California too, since his numbers could sink a half dozen Republican Congressmen.

Only with reference to the Presidency.

I am surprised that I see so little about Senate races.  Those usually come with presidential approvals.

[pbrower2a]

A rather old poll (two weeks old) of Arizona, and by a Democratic pollster, relating to the US Senate race in 2018. Trump is barely ahead, 47-46 in favorability.  I am also adding white as a provision for a tie.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  




[/quote]

[LLR]

Trump's approval rating according to Gallup is 45%

The quickest any elected president has fallen below 45% was Bill Clinton, who hit 45% in May 1993. If we include Truman, LBJ, and Ford, it still took Ford four months to get it that low. It's taken Trump only a week, and god knows how far it'll plummet now.

[Figueira]

It's depressing that Trump can at least point to some polls showing him with a positive rating while Paul Keating cannot.

Also, check out this out for historical knowledge (or lack thereof) on the part of the public (from Quinny):

Best president of past 70 years:

30 percent name Ronald Reagan;
29 percent name Barack Obama;
12 percent pick John Kennedy;
9 percent select Bill Clinton;
3 percent each for Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush;
2 percent each for Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush;

Worst president of past 70 years:
24 percent for Richard Nixon;
23 percent for Barack Obama;
22 percent for George W. Bush;
10 percent for Jimmy Carter;
5 percent for Ronald Reagan;
4 percent for Bill Clinton;
3 percent for Lyndon Johnson;
2 percent for George H.W. Bush;
1 percent for Gerald Ford;
Less than 1 percent for Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower and John Kennedy.

I always forget how unpopular Nixon is among normal people.

[heatcharger]

I fail to see how he goes below ~35%. There's a certain sect of people in this country who will allow Trump to say or do literally anything, and that's a mandate Bush didn't even have.

I do care more about his state-by-state approval because it's true that a majority of his dissenters live in deep blue states.

[Storebought]

Again: it matters a great deal just who comprises this 35%-40% of the electorate that approves of Trump. If they are, as I deeply suspect, married whites with household incomes greater than 50000 a year, then Trump is not in any danger of facing a palace coup or a congressional GOP revolt.

[OkThen]

Trump approval down to 42/50 today per Gallup. Seems to be going the direction of QPac and not Ras...

[The Other Castro]

Obama didn't get to this point in his Gallup approval ratings until around August of 2010.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Obama didn't get to this point in his Gallup approval ratings until around August of 2010.

And we're only on week 1! SAD!

[Virginiá]

I fail to see how he goes below ~35%. There's a certain sect of people in this country who will allow Trump to say or do literally anything, and that's a mandate Bush didn't even have.

I do care more about his state-by-state approval because it's true that a majority of his dissenters live in deep blue states.

Personally, I see a lot of situations that could cause him to go lower. I think he has a hardened base of support around what you said, but not unbreakable. To name a few, a recession that has noticeable effects on the lives of that 35%, a massive corruption scandal with oodles of evidence, or perhaps him serving 2 terms and eventually after years of failing to do anything about their problems, generating 5-6 years worth of controversies in addition to the typical grievances that 2-termers build up, all could probably see him go lower since his ceiling appears to be very low.

However, I should say that even if 35% was guaranteed, that is still pretty awful. If that was his approval rating in 2018 and/or 2020, I'd be pretty scared for my job (or majorities) if I was a House or state Republican in a state/seat a Democrat could even conceivably win under the right conditions.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Generally, I wouldn't consider approvals in the first week to give us a solid indication yet as to what is signal and what is noise, but going from 45/45 to 42/50 seems like a noteworthy shift in the course of just one week.

[pbrower2a]

Generally, I wouldn't consider approvals in the first week to give us a solid indication yet as to what is signal and what is noise, but going from 45/45 to 42/50 seems like a noteworthy shift in the course of just one week.

Less than the margin of error for approval, and slightly more than the margin of error for disapproval. It is also early.

This could be over his lie about the size of the crowd witnessing him being inaugurated and his denial of the size of the Women's March. As little as three months from now will those lies matter? Not likely. Maybe he learns something from this. Policies and their consequences will matter far more. Of course he can offend the sensibilities of people who did not vote for him in November and never will. But should he offend sensibilities of people who normally vote Republican, like farm and ranch interests, things will get ugly.

 

[Tartarus Sauce]

Generally, I wouldn't consider approvals in the first week to give us a solid indication yet as to what is signal and what is noise, but going from 45/45 to 42/50 seems like a noteworthy shift in the course of just one week.

Less than the margin of error for approval, and slightly more than the margin of error for disapproval. It is also early.

This could be over his lie about the size of the crowd witnessing him being inaugurated and his denial of the size of the Women's March. As little as three months from now will those lies matter? Not likely. Maybe he learns something from this. Policies and their consequences will matter far more. Of course he can offend the sensibilities of people who did not vote for him in November and never will. But should he offend sensibilities of people who normally vote Republican, like farm and ranch interests, things will get ugly.

 

True, I'm not trying to draw too many conclusions from this early on. By the way, Trump doesn't really learn from his mistakes the way other people do; vindicating humiliation and seeking approval from a base of support are the primary motivating drives of narcissists, and they will engage in all sorts of self-destructive behavior in order to achieve those criteria. He will continue to make the same mistakes ad nauseam in service of his own ego.

I agree that policy and executive actions will end up mattering more, and given the current rate of things, he will likely bomb on that end as well. The independents and those whom provided tentative support will be the first to swing against him before establishment Republicans will, and his core base of supporters will be the last in line. He could easily sink to 33% approval or possibly even lower without suffering any losses from his base of core supporters.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup: 42/51 http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

[Dr. Arch]

Gallup: 42/51 http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

Going down down down.

[anthonyjg]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/825781634330980352

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[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, when can we expect Trump's approvals to reach Bush '08 levels?