The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[publicunofficial]

Iowa - DMR/Selzer (2/6-2/9):

Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%

Not too good... I'm wondering what his ratings are in Wisconsin.

wow...Seltzer is the best pollster too

Had Trump winning Iowa in a blowout. Hard to call them "D-leaning"

[The_Doctor]

Obama wasn't Eisenhower. Bill Clinton was that in the 1990s. He even called himself an Eisenhower Republican. The Obama Administration reminds me of a Nixon White House minus the impeachment in terms of political coalitions and moments of time.

Still fellating Bill Clinton, I see...

Um what?

I didn't vote for his wife, and I would've voted Bush and Dole. I don't think he was an impressive president. He mainly maintained the Reagan paradigm. Ike upheld the Roosevelt paradigm.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(I was waiting for a poll of approval or favorability in Iowa from Selzer, and it is only on the travel ban, so I can't use it)  (I have one now)

The Democratic firewall of 2008 and 2012 seems to be forming about four months too late to save America from the "Trumpenstein monster".

Selzer has a reputation as one of the best pollsters around, and it consistently showed Trump almost certain to win Iowa throughout 2016.  This is when Trump approval was already at a 40% approval based upon Gallup national polls.

Iowa is probably about R+2 now..

Donald Trump would lose a state that he won decisively in 2016.

 I would like to see polling results for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin before I project the 2020 election at this stage based on six assumptions:

1. Election not rigged

2. Donald Trump is still President (Mike Pence probably goes down with Donald Trump) -- so the President running for election isn't "Chuck Hagel" or "Mitt Romney", in either case, all bets are off

3. Binary election

4. Approval for President Trump is about the same three years from now

5. The usual gain of 6% from approval to vote share applies to Donald Trump from approval against  the average opponent (according to Nate Silver) applies to the President in the states. 

6. Because favorability and recent polls are relatively close in all states, I can use favorability as a valid proxy in my projections.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[hopper]

One thing to look for: really-big waves depend upon the entry of new generations into the political arena as older generations fade out. People born in the 1930s and 1940s are dying off rapidly, so politicians who might still be competent enough if they have a constituency of people who share the same political culture start retiring from public life or being defeated in elections.

New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier. Creditors are generally on the right, with small-scale creditors (who might have insurance policies or savings accounts) still concerned about having reliable income to protect their assets from having to be drained in economic downturns  but intent on preventing severe inflation. Big creditors want their pounds of flesh -- to make debt hurt the toiler who has had to borrow, perhaps even pawning himself to survive.

The Millennial generation is entering the stage of life when political careers begin to lead into high offices -- state legislatures, the House and the Senate, and even Governorships. The oldest among them will be in their middle-to-late 30s by 2020, and their pols will have an obvious constituency that the Silent (like Mitch McConnell), Boomers (like Trump and the Clintons) and even X (like Barack Obama) can't fully understand and relate. Obama and Trump have played ethnic demographics for their political successes, if in opposite ways, the former for inclusion and the latter for White Power (yes, that is an ugly slogan, but it fits).  

Millennial adults now fill most of the child-bearing years; even if there are adults in their fifties through seventies fathering children, it is the younger women who will be more important in establishing the culture of children.  Millennial adults are very hands-on parents, and they will not accept poverty in the name of some ideal fifty years from now that requires their children to live in poverty. If they have made great sacrifices on behalf of Corporate America, they do not want their children to get things far worse.

Can I at age 61 speak on behalf of Millennial adults? Hardly. But demographics are the ultimate reality in politics. Politicians who can relate to demographic change can be spectacularly successful. Those that cannot adapt lose.  

Obama is a Boomer although a late one.

I don't think Trump is a White Nationalist although I would say he is a "Nationalist". He did put a lot of work in getting to Non-College Whites to show up and vote for him. "White College Graduates" weren't really his coalition though although he did win or lose them depending on what poll you looked at. Exit Polls the night or the day after Trump won the election showed him winning College Educated Whites but Nate Cohn of NYT showed Trump losing College Educated Whites by 2% Points to Hillary.

As far as adapting to Changing Demographics you have to keep your policies fresh since you don't want to run on stale old policies that the electorate isn't buying(i.e. voting for.) Mondale in 1984 was a victim of this as was Romney in 2012 mostly.

[hopper]

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 6-12:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BztOs71zt1WpVE9uajdzMDRfckk/view

Trump job approval:
approve 46%
disapprove 53%
(Those numbers are the same for both adults and RVs.)

approval margin among…
men: +10
women: -22
white: +10
black: -55
Hispanic: -39
white / no college: +24
white / college degree: -16

His numbers with Blacks and Hispanics are what you would expect for a Republican. I feel like he is losing support with "College Educated Whites" since his approvals are -16 with them. He won Non-College Whites by 40% points I think but he has lost 16% points with them to being +24 with them.

[Classic Conservative]

Morning Consult/Politico
Trump Approval Rating: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 45%

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult/Politico
Trump Approval Rating: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 45%

Was approve +1% last week and approve +8% two weeks ago.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult/Politico
Trump Approval Rating: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 45%

Looks like it's actually 49% approve, 45% disapprove:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170202_topline_Politico_v2_AG.pdf

[Sorenroy]

Morning Consult/Politico
Trump Approval Rating: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 45%

Looks like it's actually 49% approve, 45% disapprove:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170202_topline_Politico_v2_AG.pdf

Looking down the sheet, I found 49%-46% (I searched "have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Donald Trump" using ctrl-f).

[Gass3268]

Gallup:

53% Disapprove (-1)
40% Approve

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted Feb. 12-14:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5amsxmrtih/econToplines.pdf
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/12jnhk8sf5/econTabReport.pdf

Trump job approval among adults:
approve 43%
disapprove 47%

Trump job approval among RVs:
approve 46%
disapprove 49%

Trump still doing worst among the rich:

income under $50k: -2
income between $50k and $100k: -2
income over $100k: -19

5% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.  5% of Trump voters disapprove of his job performance.

[Gass3268]

If Trump is doing the worst among the rich and is pretty darn negative with white college educated voters, the GA-06 special could be interesting.

[pbrower2a]

If Trump is doing the worst among the rich and is pretty darn negative with white college educated voters, the GA-06 special could be interesting.

"Over $100K" includes lots of well-educated engineers, accountants, physicians, dentists, salespeople, and two-income teaching families... I'm guessing that they don't look kindly upon anti-intellectualism that is the cornerstone of the Trump ethos. 

[Tartarus Sauce]

If Trump is doing the worst among the rich and is pretty darn negative with white college educated voters, the GA-06 special could be interesting.

"Over $100K" includes lots of well-educated engineers, accountants, physicians, dentists, salespeople, and two-income teaching families... I'm guessing that they don't look kindly upon anti-intellectualism that is the cornerstone of the Trump Republican ethos.  

FIFY. Trump is the party now. That's why I suspect these people are trending Democratic despite Republican tax cuts that would favor them. We've reached the point where the party has become anti-intellectual/professional.

I already mentioned in a previous post that the rise of Trump could possibly be a signal that hardliner social conservatives are more closely aligning with economic protectionists due to a mutual coalescing around cultural reactionism, which is very likely to cleavage the white, college-educated, upper-middle class fiscal conservatives away from the Republican Party over time. If cultural issues supplant economics as the coalition's unifying platform, what's in it anymore for the more fiscally conservative, socially moderate, educated Republicans if they are more culturally similar to educated liberals?

[pbrower2a]

In one of my favorite comparison maps I demonstrated that an Obama win is practically an inverse of an Eisenhower win. In 2008 and 2012 Obama only once won any state that Adlai Stevenson won in the 1950s -- North Carolina, barely. It's not surprising that he would win only one state that Nixon lost in 1972 (Massachusetts) and Reagan lost in 1984 (Minnesota), as those have been tough states for Republicans to win since 1928. Between those two states and Rhode Island, Republican nominees for President have won those states only four times each since 1924 -- Ike won all three of those states twice. Obama and Eisenhower maps of victory are near inversions of partisan identity.

Both Ike and Obama did extremely well with the 'Educated' vote. Republicans used to do better with educated voters, probably because the core of Democratic strength was long in the under-educated South, where Obama and Ike both did badly. Of course, the ethnic competition of the 'Educated' vote may have changed; first-rate colleges used to be largely a WASP preserve and are no longer such any more. As late as 1964, Republicans got the majority of the 'College-educated' vote even though getting creamed nationally in the 1964 LBJ landslide.

I'm guessing that better-educated people are less amenable to demagoguery and tend to prefer a steady hand. They are conservatives on legal precedent no matter how liberal they may be on other issues.

Elect a steady-hand pol like Eisenhower or Obama, and politics could get deathly boring. Elect Donald Trump and politics can become a circus. Maybe something worse, because the typical circus is allegedly wholesome entertainment.   

[Mr. Morden]

Ipsos/Reuters national poll, conducted Feb. 10-14:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16426

approve 46%
disapprove 50%

[Tender Branson]

Interesting that Americans say their 3 most important issues are:

* the economy
* healthcare
* terrorism

And on these 3 issues, Trump has the following approvals:

* the economy (52-37)
* healthcare (47-43)
* terrorism (50-38)

Yet, overall he has a 46-50 approval.

[Fusionmunster]

Interesting that Americans say their 3 most important issues are:

* the economy
* healthcare
* terrorism

And on these 3 issues, Trump has the following approvals:

* the economy (52-37)
* healthcare (47-43)
* terrorism (50-38)

Yet, overall he has a 46-50 approval.

Thats not how percentages work though.

[henster]

RAS has Trump at (55-45).

[The Other Castro]

RAS has Trump at (55-45).

One of these is not like the other...

[The Other Castro]

Pew Research Center: 39% approve, 56% disapprove (!). That's a -17 rating. Wow.







http://www.people-press.org/2017/02/16/in-first-month-views-of-trump-are-already-strongly-felt-deeply-polarized/?utm_source=adaptivemailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-02-15%20feb%20political&org=982&lvl=100&ite=819&lea=173153&ctr=0&par=1&trk=

[Gass3268]

Man those numbers are brutal.

-25% with college educated white voters

[Wiz in Wis]

The asymmetry on the "strongly" part is what could be the most important in upcoming special elections and in 2018. GOTV is easier if your side is energized.

[Gass3268]

The asymmetry on the "strongly" part is what could be the most important in upcoming special elections and in 2018. GOTV is easier if your side is energized.

Exactly, here's an example in Minnesota:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Republican still won, but it was much closer than it should have been.

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (2/13-2/15):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54% (+1)

Change from -13% to -14%