The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[The_Doctor]

So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.

[Wiz in Wis]

So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.

What was the other under 40? Pew, Gallup... and?

[The_Doctor]

So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.

What was the other under 40? Pew, Gallup... and?

No I mean this poll confirms Pew. I wanted to see if other polls confirmed this, if so Trump could be in political trouble.

[KingSweden]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

Sad!

[Lief 🗽]

Pew and Gallup have pretty identical cross-tabs too. Republican support is near 90%, but only about 1/3 of independents and single digits of Democrats approve.

[Dr. Arch]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

Sad!

With so much ineptitude at full display and Trump completely being unable to control the direction of the dialogue (in addition to him becoming the status quo), this has the potential to go into free-fall mode and hit absolute floors.

[Gass3268]

Looking at this poll visually is startling:

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Virginia:

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https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2430

Virginia is not in an anti-government mood:

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But it is anti-Trump.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.


[/quote]

[The_Doctor]

So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.

What was the other under 40? Pew, Gallup... and?

No I mean this poll confirms Pew. I wanted to see if other polls confirmed this, if so Trump could be in political trouble.

He already is. If these numbers are true, he's probably only break even in states like Indiana and Missouri, which would significantly help McCaskill and Donnelly.

More to the point he needs better ratings for his legislative agenda. The Congressional Republicans may conclude that they may not benefit from working with Trump if his ratings crash further. Its amazing they don't realize how problematic the man is.

[Wiz in Wis]

So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.

What was the other under 40? Pew, Gallup... and?

No I mean this poll confirms Pew. I wanted to see if other polls confirmed this, if so Trump could be in political trouble.

He already is. If these numbers are true, he's probably only break even in states like Indiana and Missouri, which would significantly help McCaskill and Donnelly.

More to the point he needs better ratings for his legislative agenda. The Congressional Republicans may conclude that they may not benefit from working with Trump if his ratings crash further. Its amazing they don't realize how problematic the man is.

By this point in his presidency, Obama had passed:

ARRA,
Expanded S-Chip
Lilly Ledbetter

This Congress.... crickets.

[Beet]

If those numbers are accurate, Democrats should easily win MT-AL and GA-6. We'll see.

Define "easily". I could see Ossoff winning by mid-single digits if Trump's numbers continue to crater, but I fail to see how Amanda-whats-her-piercing wins in Montana. Maybe Quist if he's supported by the national party.

Amanda Curtis? She got 40% in a Republican wave year for Senate. I could see her easily reaching 45% in a House election. That's more than Ossoff could get in GA-6. In the last off-year election, the Democratic candidate got 33%. I can't see any Democrat breaking 40%.

[Wiz in Wis]

If those numbers are accurate, Democrats should easily win MT-AL and GA-6. We'll see.

Define "easily". I could see Ossoff winning by mid-single digits if Trump's numbers continue to crater, but I fail to see how Amanda-whats-her-piercing wins in Montana. Maybe Quist if he's supported by the national party.

Montana is actually pretty swingy, and has elected Dems to Congress plenty of times. I doubt how that race would be any harder than GA-06.

Of course, at this rate, Trump's approval may be so low we're talking about KS-03 in a couple months being a D pickup target.

[Sorenroy]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

As I posted on this thread before, the lowest Obama ever dropped in his full eight years was to -18%. Trump has managed to do the same in his first 30 days.

[Beet]

By that logic, none of those Southern d Blue Dog seats should've flipped in 2010 cuz they were always landslides. Or MS-1 and LA-6 in 2008 or MA-Sen in 2010. Consider also that Trump is very likely at double digit net disapproval in GA-6 right now (if the national polls are any indication), and I could see a Dem win solely on discontent with his incompetence.

2010 was an exceptional year with a 10% unemployment rate. A Romney Republican who has an unfavorable opinion of Trump is less likely to associate that with his vote in a downballot election. I'm not saying the Democrats shouldn't do better than the 33% they got in 2014, but to actually win would require a gargantuan switch in the district's politics that just don't seem realistic.

[Tartarus Sauce]

There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

[KingSweden]

There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

They're not stuck with him, since Pence would be much better for their party AND the country (and foreign relations). They're just p***ies

[OneJ]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

HALLELUJAH!

[Tartarus Sauce]

There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

They're not stuck with him, since Pence would be much better for their party AND the country (and foreign relations). They're just p***ies

I mean that they're stuck being associated with his agenda and with him being the face of their party. Voters will not put any daylight between the Republican brand and president Trump much as the establishment may hope for that to be the case. But yes, they are spineless, and it's precisely because they no longer can control the ship.

[Devout Centrist]

Quite the opposite. If they win red territory it'd make waves, but if they lose those areas with the B-list candidates they have, who cares.

Didn't Trump only win that Georgia district by 1? That's hardly red territory. And neither is Montana, for that matter. The state has a Democratic Senator, a Democratic governor and elects Democrats to statewide offices on a regular basis. Now if there were an incumbent like Zinke running, it'd be very tough for them to win, but an open seat should be easily winnable for them - especially if Republicans are as unpopular as the polls say they are.

It's Gingrich's old seat. Highly conservative, but not populist in the slightest. If Ossoff loses to a Trumpist, that's a bad sign. But to a normal conservative? That's to be expected.

[Middle-aged Europe]

At the current rate, Trump could reach Dubya's negative record of 25% approval in about three months from now. And that's indeed within the realm of possibility.

[heatcharger]

Lol Republican Clear Politics changed the Pew numbers from A to RV because they wanted better numbers for Trump. Sad.

[Phony Moderate]

There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

They're not stuck with him, since Pence would be much better for their party AND the country (and foreign relations). They're just p***ies

Well, as long as you're not poor and/or LGBT. But then Pence is a nice guy, FF so maybe you're right.

[The_Doctor]

Before I celebrate, I want to see 2 weeks of him at sub-40% and not rebounding to 45% or something. He's got an economic speech before Congress on February 28, but I assume by March 1, hell resume being peak Trumpy.

Still holding out for the long game here.

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump can be so disliked as President that by November 2018 Americans vote in a Democratic majority in the House.

[The_Doctor]

Donald Trump can be so disliked as President that by November 2018 Americans vote in a Democratic majority in the House.

I'd say also the Senate if the GOP lost NV, AZ, and TX (yes, Cruz could somehow lose) and that would accompany a Democratic majority in the House.

I'm highly skeptical, but we'll see.