The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[GlobeSoc]

Without much information, I'll guess that the resistance levels for Trump's favorability are:

38-40%: The various republican factions+R-leaning indies (This one might be breached soon)

30-32%: The Republican base (It would take a severe depression hitting rural areas hard for this one to be breached, or an unexpected and large deviation from Republican orthodoxy)

23-25%: The Trumpists and those who support his administration out of self-interest (This one would take a complete failure of his ability to pass and maintain policy for this one to be breached, or a complete failure in policy goals being achieved)

10-12%: The true believers (It would take Trump personally going from town to town holding rallies telling his supporters he hates them for him to fall below this level)

[hopper]

There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

They're not stuck with him, since Pence would be much better for their party AND the country (and foreign relations). They're just p***ies

I mean that they're stuck being associated with his agenda and with him being the face of their party. Voters will not put any daylight between the Republican brand and president Trump much as the establishment may hope for that to be the case. But yes, they are spineless, and it's precisely because they no longer can control the ship.

Keep in mind Congressional Dems voted a lot with Obama in 2009-2010 just like Congressional Republicans are doing now with Trump.

[hopper]

The Dems will probably win the House in 2018 because Trump isn't very popular.

[hopper]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

Only 9 more points to go!

On a serious note, I think people are severely underestimating the likelihood of him hitting the 20's. If a recession hits, his one trump card is gone. I also think people are OVERestimating how much nonsense/incompetence the public can tolerate. Personally, I think these weekly crises will wear on the public quicker than most think

It is still the Obama economy. Foreign policy has yet to shift fully away from the Obama universe. President Trump and the GOP own any economic meltdown.

Usually it takes 6-9 months for a President in his first year to completely own the economy.

[Ronnie]

The Dems will probably win the House in 2018 because Trump isn't very popular.

It really depends.  Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and if he remains that way, his base could turn out in droves in 2018.  In that case, Dems might make some gains, but it's doubtful they'd be able to win back the house.  I think that prospect hinges on Trump's approval rating eroding at least somewhat with Republicans.

[publicunofficial]

The Dems will probably win the House in 2018 because Trump isn't very popular.

It really depends.  Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and if he remains that way, his base could turn out in droves in 2018.  In that case, Dems might make some gains, but it's doubtful they'd be able to win back the house.  I think that prospect hinges on Trump's approval rating eroding at least somewhat with Republicans.

Well if he wasn't extremely popular among Republicans right now, that'd be a problem other Presidents never had at this point in their tenure. If he's still posting 85-90% approval among Republicans in May or mid-summer, then we can talk.

Also Democrats supported Obama through pretty much his entire presidency (Did his approval among D's ever drop below 85%?) and that didn't cause them to vote.

It's harder to get people to come and and vote to support/defend a cause than it is to get people to come out with the intent of putting a stop to something. When your party controls every branch of government, it gets just a little bit harder to get off the couch and go vote.

[JA]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/

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[progressive85]

Not surprised.  Iowa's independents are moderates.  Iowa is still a swing state, folks.  It swung to Barack and it swung to Trump, but its not the solid-red Republican state it's being made out to be.  2016 is just one election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A lot of people didn't vote for Trump but against Hillary.

[pbrower2a]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

Only 9 more points to go!

On a serious note, I think people are severely underestimating the likelihood of him hitting the 20's. If a recession hits, his one trump card is gone. I also think people are OVERestimating how much nonsense/incompetence the public can tolerate. Personally, I think these weekly crises will wear on the public quicker than most think

It is still the Obama economy. Foreign policy has yet to shift fully away from the Obama universe. President Trump and the GOP own any economic meltdown.

Usually it takes 6-9 months for a President in his first year to completely own the economy.

True. It took almost three years for the Iranian hostage situation, which likely killed any chance of Jimmy Carter being re-elected, to come into being.

Six months was the time it took for the Coolidge economy (even if it was doomed before Hoover was inaugurated) to start a three-year implosion. The Obama economy does not have a bubble that makes most profit-seeking to become a Ponzi scheme -- yet.

As my other posts suggest, I expect Donald Trump to be an awful President, someone who blunders into disasters and panics when they happen, offering the wrong solutions and make things even worse, both for his ideology and for his personality. Sordid as his ideology must seem to liberals, his complete lack of probity is even more dangerous.   

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

Damn

Get used to it. First impressions stick.

I hope you're right. I am the eternal doubting Thomas here but hopefully.

I would prefer that he change his ways and stop the damage so that we have a political system worth keeping intact. Maybe we will have a Constitutional Convention and adopt a near-translation of the German Constitution, a constitution with far more protections against dictatorship and despotism than ours. Or perhaps we could have a Westminster-style parliament.

While we are terrifyingly close to the GOP being able to re-write the Constitution, the only nation they're interested in emulating is the Republic of Gilead.

[JoshPA]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/

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can i get the areas they are polling these people most polls i do research about that have trump losing were over sampleing democrats.

[JoshPA]

I dont believe trust these polls because alot of his action are in the 50s in supports they are oversampling democrats.

[Mr. Morden]

Also Democrats supported Obama through pretty much his entire presidency (Did his approval among D's ever drop below 85%?) and that didn't cause them to vote.

Obama was just below 80% among Democrats during much of 2013-2015:

link

Here's the corresponding graph for Trump among Republicans:

link

[Fusionmunster]

I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Not bad.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/

Its not good either.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup: 41/55 looks like Flynn knocked him down to 38 an his press fued won some back

[Holmes]

It's probably just noise. It's a daiily tracking poll after all.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It's probably just noise. It's a daiily tracking poll after all.

Agreed

[The_Doctor]

A -14 rating compared to -18 is considered surging. Sad!

[The_Doctor]

GE needs these ratings up to convince Congress to pass his agenda, by the way. No way they kowtow to someone with deeply negative ratings. Congress puts themselves and their own reelection first.

So if he's still underwater in March or April, he might find his legislative agenda a much heavier lift. It could affect Obamacare repeal among other things (why would Republicans take on huge projects with an unpopular president?)

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Not bad.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/

Apparently Obama was even more unpopular in November at -9 (43/52).

[JA]

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/02/20/uttt-poll-new-president-popular-texas-republicans/

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[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/02/20/uttt-poll-new-president-popular-texas-republicans/

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Wait wait wait they are calling a 46/44 approval in the state of Texas good?

[pbrower2a]

This is old (spring 2016), but it may be relevant to how the rest of the world sees President Trump:

 

[JA]

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/02/20/uttt-poll-new-president-popular-texas-republicans/

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Wait wait wait they are calling a 46/44 approval in the state of Texas good?

I think they're calling Trump's approval rating among Texas Republicans good.