The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[henster]

I'm wondering how long he can keep his base happy with no legislation passed, besides the new immigration EO what else is left?

[pbrower2a]

Baiting educated 'elites'?

[JA]

http://www.greensboro.com/news/local_news/hpu-poll-fewer-than-half-give-thumbs-up-to-donald/article_d7e81f5a-966d-5025-8d0d-f85b0823d94d.html

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[MasterJedi]

He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.

The news sites that cater to his base and Fox will likely just blame liberals for nothing happening. They won't understand that Republicans control Congress as well and can do what they want so they can pull the wool far over their eyes.

[Tintrlvr]

He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.

The news sites that cater to his base and Fox will likely just blame liberals for nothing happening. They won't understand that Republicans control Congress as well and can do what they want so they can pull the wool far over their eyes.

I don't think this works. The public blames the President and the party of the President for everything no matter who controls Congress, barring very unusual circumstances like a government shutdown. It just hasn't been anywhere near long enough for conservatives to start losing faith yet. Wait until the fall or next year.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 43% (+1)
Disapprove: 52% (-2)

I think we can count on his approvals rallying a bit (or perhaps a lot) over the next few days.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 24-26:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-81a1-d487-a37e-edb1a8f30001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-819f-d2c6-a7db-d9bfcf110001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -8
South: +11
West: +7

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -40
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +3
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: +11

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 24-26:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-81a1-d487-a37e-edb1a8f30001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-819f-d2c6-a7db-d9bfcf110001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -8
South: +11
West: +7

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -40
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +3
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: +11

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

Surely if the Democratic party keeps yelling Russia really loudly, they can beat him?

[Dr. Arch]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 24-26:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-81a1-d487-a37e-edb1a8f30001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-819f-d2c6-a7db-d9bfcf110001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -8
South: +11
West: +7

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -40
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +3
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: +11

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

1) No way his approval is -5 with Hispanics
2) No way his approval is positive in the West given the Pacific coast states

[Hindsight was 2020]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 24-26:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-81a1-d487-a37e-edb1a8f30001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-819f-d2c6-a7db-d9bfcf110001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -8
South: +11
West: +7

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -40
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +3
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: +11

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

Surely if the Democratic party keeps yelling Russia really loudly, they can beat him?

You were saying?

[Ronnie]

Economist/YouGov (Conducted 2/25 - 3/1)
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 51%

Reuters/Ipsos (Conducted 2/24 - 2/28)
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 48%

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov (Conducted 2/25 - 3/1)
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 51%

men: -7
women: -11
income under $50k: -16
income between $50k and $100k: +10
income over $100k: -11
white: +2
black: -59
Hispanic: -17

[pbrower2a]

I notice a paucity of statewide polling. Nothing so far for

Colorado
Georgia
Maine
Minnesota
Nevada
Ohio
Wisconsin

[Sorenroy]

Gallup (2/27/17-3/1/17):

Approve 43% (±0)
Disapprove 51% (-1)

Change from -9% to -8%

This is the highest he's polled in about a month*.

*In terms of net approval.

[Dr. Arch]

Gallup (2/27/17-3/1/17):

Approve 43% (±0)
Disapprove 51% (-1)

Change from -9% to -8%

This is the highest he's polled in about a month.

It's going to take a turn soon enough with this mess that's transpired.

[Mr. Morden]

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 24 - Mar. 2:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArclliZElUcm9RRjg/view

Trump job approval (adults):
approve 45%
disapprove 54%

Trump job approval (RVs):
approve 47%
disapprove 53%

approval margin among…
men: +7
women: -22
white: +10
black: -60
Hispanic: -40
white / no college: +20
white / college degree: -14

[Dr. Arch]

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 24 - Mar. 2:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArclliZElUcm9RRjg/view

Trump job approval (adults):
approve 45%
disapprove 54%

Trump job approval (RVs):
approve 47%
disapprove 53%

approval margin among…
men: +7
women: -22
white: +10
black: -60
Hispanic: -40
white / no college: +20
white / college degree: -14

That disapproval number though.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

Usually Presidential speeches give the President a little boost.

Donald Trump isn;t exactly Barack Obama at that. Or Ronald Reagan,

[Lachi]

Nate Silver has created a tracker for these polls:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[OneJ]

Nate Silver has created a tracker for these polls:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Currently, it is aggregated at 49.9% Disapprove & 43.7% Approve.

[Badger]

He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.

The news sites that cater to his base and Fox will likely just blame liberals for nothing happening. They won't understand that Republicans control Congress as well and can do what they want so they can pull the wool far over their eyes.

I don't think this works. The public blames the President and the party of the President for everything no matter who controls Congress, barring very unusual circumstances like a government shutdown. It just hasn't been anywhere near long enough for conservatives to start losing faith yet. Wait until the fall or next year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_shutdowns_of_1995%E2%80%931996

Still, while the Republican base will stand by him, I suspect most will indeed blame Trump.

[pbrower2a]

He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.

The news sites that cater to his base and Fox will likely just blame liberals for nothing happening. They won't understand that Republicans control Congress as well and can do what they want so they can pull the wool far over their eyes.

I don't think this works. The public blames the President and the party of the President for everything no matter who controls Congress, barring very unusual circumstances like a government shutdown. It just hasn't been anywhere near long enough for conservatives to start losing faith yet. Wait until the fall or next year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_shutdowns_of_1995%E2%80%931996

Still, while the Republican base will stand by him, I suspect most will indeed blame Trump.

True. It takes grave failure of results or severe turpitude to cut into support from the partisan base. The two biggest failures of incumbent Presidents in re-election bids in the last century (Hoover and Carter) had nothing to do with moral turpitude. (If you want to consider Taft, it's that someone who had been a fine President took the Republican base from him).

Most Presidents must start by doing something unpopular but necessary, like reforming a tax code, withdrawing from an unpopular war in a way that leaves some hurt feelings for many Americans, showing mercy to social pariahs, firing a popular General who has Caesar-like tendencies, imposing new or raising existing taxes, taking some military action that poses some risks, or enforcing a widely-opposed ruling of the Supreme Court. Truly-effective Presidents make it work and make well known that such is inevitable or even good. Not-so-good Presidents put such decisions off and allow the consequences to fester, make sure that special interests get to profiteer from the decision at the expense of everyone else, find pariahs to treat badly, or try to put the blame on unpopular people.

At this point I expect President Trump to go down to a Carter-like or Hoover-like defeat in 2020. Note well: he is not Herbert Hoover and he is not Jimmy Carter. Hoover got elected on religious bigotry  (anti-Catholic sentiment) of which  he wisely stayed clear and on status quo in the American economy.  Unfortunately for Hoover the economy melted down and he had no idea of how to fix it. Carter barely got elected against an inept campaigner (does that sound familiar?) only to lose to someone more resolute and convincing the next time... but he had no idea of how to deal with cost-push inflation, which then would have been to raise taxes to reduce conspicuous consumption  and give tax breaks to investors. (Reagan did not raise taxes on consumption, but left that to the states who raised sales taxes; he did cut taxes for investors).

I can't predict what will take President Trump down. Maybe he will let the Federal Reserve run the economy and avoid a 1929-style or 2007-style meltdown (the two began much the same). Maybe he will offend so many sensibilities (not to say that the opposing sensibilities don't overlap).  Maybe he will misjudge the intentions of a foreign power or sponsor regime change that turns a shaky ally into a vituperating enemy -- think of Iran with Carter as President. Visible cronyism, corruption, and scapegoating will get unpopular fast. His capricious handling of "Dreamers" makes me wonder if I am next. Does America have a Gulag in its future?

The President's slogan "Make America Great Again" is much of his political capital. Things will have to go very well for him -- well enough for white Christians to accept the restoration of what many Americans consider unthinkable today. Such will depend upon rapacious plutocrats and brutal managers getting what they want, basically a return to the norms of the Gilded Age, and such giving Americans more pay to support conspicuous consumption on an unprecedented level. Such will fail. First, economic successes of the Gilded Age depended upon basic, innovative technologies that investors could exploit cheaply or simply even if on a gigantic scale. Second, conspicuous consumption is impossible where people are shoehorned into tiny apartments as is the norm in some Northeastern cities and much of California (and those places are where the high-paying jobs are). Third, elite indulgence in the presence of widespread hardship hardly supports social concord. Fourth, it all implies degradation of cultural, spiritual, and moral life while destroying the environment.

The technology and widespread prosperity that Americans enjoy by contrast to the Gilded Age make Trump's ideal of a return to the political and economic norms of the Gilded Age with simply higher productivity and higher technology cannot work.  If "greatness" implies ultra-cheap labor and WASP supremacy, then I would be offended. I have empathy, something inconsistent with a harsh social order or a dictatorial government.  

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

3/4 update:
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

Def no speech bounce... but no drop from Sessions either, yet.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

3/4 update:
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

Def no speech bounce... but no drop from Sessions either, yet.

Evidence that he is preaching to the choir.