The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

Seriously

[Lief 🗽]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This is a very good point. Short of events like the Gulf War or 9/11, presidents basically only go down from here.

[Fusionmunster]

He is probably at 70% unfavorable in CA, so that skews the numbers but doesn't really impact his reelection chances.

Even if there were some truth to that, it wouldn't skew his national numbers that much. Trump is underwater and its only downhill from here.  

[Fusionmunster]

He is probably at 70% unfavorable in CA, so that skews the numbers but doesn't really impact his reelection chances.

Even if there were some truth to that, it wouldn't skew his national numbers that much. Trump is underwater and its only downhill from here.  

Would you be saying the same thing if Clinton had won? Not saying you're wrong, but it's too early to tell that for sure. Anyway, this is all not surprising since he almost certainly would have lost to any other Democrat. Even many Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Absolutely. I was resigned to the fact that Hillary, at best, was going to break even on her favorable if democrats were lucky during the honeymoon period. I also knew Hillary would be back to the low 40s by 2018 and republicans would probably get to 60 seats in the senate. And most importantly, I think she would have lost re-election.

[Wiz in Wis]

He is probably at 70% unfavorable in CA, so that skews the numbers but doesn't really impact his reelection chances.

Even if there were some truth to that, it wouldn't skew his national numbers that much. Trump is underwater and its only downhill from here.  

Would you be saying the same thing if Clinton had won? Not saying you're wrong, but it's too early to tell that for sure. Anyway, this is all not surprising since he almost certainly would have lost to any other Democrat. Even many Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Absolutely. I was resigned to the fact that Hillary, at best, was going to break even on her favorable if democrats were lucky during the honeymoon period. I also knew Hillary would be back to the low 40s by 2018 and republicans would probably get to 60 seats in the senate. And most importantly, I think she would have lost re-election.

Both candidates were fatally flawed, but one had to win. Trump only did well in comparison to Clinton. Yes, Sanders never faced the full onslaught of the GOP, but he always polled way better than Clinton. Now, with Clinton out of the picture, the Dems are an amorphous, faceless opponent that he cannot tie to any specific scandal or flaw. His counterattacks will be like shooting into a fog, while the Dems can keep pressing him on any number of scandals/crises/tempests that he seems intent on creating every time he tweets.

Clinton would have potentially gotten an SC justice or three... Trump will get the same and perhaps some tax cuts, but it won't be long before the GOP starts infighting. Paul, McCain, and Graham are already signalling they will oppose some of his nominees and investigate the Russia issue. I cannot see him winning over more GOP members than he loses as time goes on (Clinton would have had the same issue, probably would have forced Manchin to switch parties).

He could be in the low to mid 30s by this time next year having done nothing more than behaving as he has been. And that's before we even talk about the economy. We are due for a recession (even a mild one) historically, and that will drag him down too.

[JJC]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

[Fusionmunster]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

[JJC]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's

[Hindsight was 2020]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's

Seeing as Obama's cabinet picks knew what they were doing and not the CEOs who kissed his a**

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Dec. 8-11:
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-f518-def3-a559-ff9e75e10001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-f51b-d8c9-ab5a-ffbf17d60001

Trump 45% favorable 51% unfavorable

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: +2
Northeast: -15
South: -1
West: -18

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +4
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -23

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -9
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -2

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -9
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -2

So much for this ridiculous idea that he was the "working-class candidate."

[Wiz in Wis]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's

If you think that Obama has made more than 1/1000th the mistakes that Trump has, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Trump has been getting much better press since his election than he did before it. He's Time's person of the year, hes on the cover of People Magazine. His approvals are up from two months ago... and he's still under 50.

Also, the media will pillory him until he revokes the 1st amendment (not that I think he will), so, maybe deal with the universe as it is rather than the way you wish it was. Fox will cover him positively, CNN will cover him sensationally, and MSNBC will 100% hate him. The other networks will probably lean more negative than positive, but that's life. Deal with it.

[The_Doctor]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's

Looking forward to being one of the 30% at the end who approves?

[Mr. Morden]

Fox News national poll, conducted Dec. 11-13:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/12/14/fox-news-poll-121416/

fav/unfav %:
Biden 56/33% for +23%
Obama 57/42% for +15%
G. W. Bush 54/41% for +13%
Pence 42/37% for +5%
Romney 45/45% for +/-0
Melania Trump 37/37% for +/-0
D. Trump 47/51% for -4%
H. Clinton 42/56% for -14%

Trump fav/unfav % demos:
men: +16
women: -22
whites: +10
white college degree: -9
white no college degree: +20
non-whites: -45

[Doimper]

It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's

Obama didn't get caught on tape admitting to sexual assault.

[Mr. Morden]

Yougov/Economist national poll, conducted Dec. 10-13:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ro9rimrce9/econTabReport.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Sanders 56/32% for +24%
Biden 51/32% for +19%
Obama 53/43% for +10%
Pence 41/38% for +3%
Warren 34/34% for +/-0
Trump 42/50% for -8%
Clinton 40/54% for -14%

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of Virginia, conducted Dec. 6-11:

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2412

Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Quinnipiac poll of Virginia, conducted Dec. 6-11:

Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%

Wow, what's the deal with Virginia lately?

I remember when Virginia was politically one of the worst states, but now it's becoming one of the best!

[pbrower2a]

Virginia does not like the new President.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2412

Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%

This could be the worst of any state with more than five electoral votes for Donald Trump (which leaves room fr Vermont, Rhode Island, New Mexico, and Hawaii). I can't imagine him being that unpopular in California.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[Mr. Morden]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

[pbrower2a]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

Maybe this explains why he won Iowa and Ohio so decisively and won Michigan and Wisconsin, and came close to winning Minnesota.   

[GlobeSoc]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.

[Storebought]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.

That's not interesting at all => CA.

What is interesting is that this is the second regional poll posted by Morden showing Trump being underwater in the South.

[Mr. Morden]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.

That's not interesting at all => CA.

I'd say it's interesting.  Before Trump came around, it was rare to see regional polls that showed a national Republican candidate (or president) doing worse in the West than the Northeast.  Sure, there's California, but the Rocky Mountain states moderate "the West" enough that it's not as far left as the Northeast.  But for Trump, in pretty much every single poll, he's in worse shape in the West than the Northeast.

[Storebought]

McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27

I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.

That's not interesting at all => CA.

I'd say it's interesting.  Before Trump came around, it was rare to see regional polls that showed a national Republican candidate (or president) doing worse in the West than the Northeast.  Sure, there's California, but the Rocky Mountain states moderate "the West" enough that it's not as far left as the Northeast.  But for Trump, in pretty much every single poll, he's in worse shape in the West than the Northeast.

Trump's weak wins in UT and AZ, and outright loss of NV (a state tailor-made for Trump) demonstrated that Trump was never so popular in the inhabited intermountain west. But the population of the urban CA/WA coast is so large, and its voters so negative to Trump, that it must strengthen the overall lean seen in the polls.

Does this represents any overall decline in the sunbelt conservatism so evident in the West as a whole starting from the 60s? I won't go that far.