The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Wiz in Wis]

Those aren't bad numbers for Trump. 45% of the country will always disapprove of any Republican, no matter what.

This completely ignores history. The lowest "highest" approval rating for any president since Truman was for Richard Nixon... who never exceeded 67%. Barack Obama's first approval ratings ranged between 75-68, depending on the pollster, and were often above 50.

Gallup's highest high poll rating:

Truman 87
Eisenhower 79
Kennedy 83
Johnson 79
Nixon 67
Ford 71
Carter 75
Reagan 68
GHW Bush 89
Clinton 73
GW Bush 90
Obama 68

If Trump can't crack 55 (in your scenario), he's the worst president by approval rating in history... by far.



 

[Mr. Morden]

Yougov/Economist national poll, conducted Dec. 17-20:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ljv2ohxmzj/econTabReport.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Biden 48/34% for +14%
Obama 53/42% for +9%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
Trump 45/49% for -4%
Clinton 40/54% for -14%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  9% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 5% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  16% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14

[jaichind]

Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14

Interesting that Trump is underwater for Upstate NY by 14%.  Election night he won Upstate NY (I guess I define it as NY minus NYC minus LI minus Westchester and Rockland counties) by around 3% overall.

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14

Interesting that Trump is underwater for Upstate NY by 14%.  Election night he won Upstate NY (I guess I define it as NY minus NYC minus LI minus Westchester and Rockland counties) by around 3% overall.

I mean, the national exit poll had both Clinton and Trump underwater by double digits in favorability, yet the vast majority of voters voted for one or the other of them.  So it's not strange to see Trump underwater on favorability in places that he won.  The exit poll had him way down in favorability in Texas of all places, yet he still won the state handily.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14

I take it back on no large state being unable to so hold Donald Trump in disdain as Virginia in its most recent poll . Sure, it is New York, but nobody is going to win re-election against a reasonably-competent opponent in a free and fair election for President  while having approval that low in New York State. Of course, approval is the acid test, and Trump will need at least 35% approval in New York to have a chance of winning nationwide.  Trump will lose New York even in a 400-EV landslide, but he is not going to lose the state by 30% and win nationally.   


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[KingSweden]

Anyone wanna start placing bets on when Mike Pence commences Operation 25th Amendment?

[pbrower2a]

Mike Pence? At some point (erratic or criminal, as in "war crimes" behavior, or blatantly un-Constitutional), and we might see the Joint Chiefs of Staff take action for cause. If Mike Pence is complicit, then the process that takes our Donald Trump also takes out Mike Pence.

Only one of these states (Virginia) is a legitimate swing state. 39% favorability does not reliably translate into approval... but don't count on him getting anything much above 45%, which is just about what he got. This is a very flawed President by historical standards, and he is already doing very unpopular things.

Don't fool yourself: a military coup would be nasty. Think of Pinochet overthrowing Allende in Chile. That nasty. 

[KingSweden]

Mike Pence? At some point (erratic or criminal, as in "war crimes" behavior, or blatantly un-Constitutional), and we might see the Joint Chiefs of Staff take action for cause. If Mike Pence is complicit, then the process that takes our Donald Trump also takes out Mike Pence.

Only one of these states (Virginia) is a legitimate swing state. 39% favorability does not reliably translate into approval... but don't count on him getting anything much above 45%, which is just about what he got. This is a very flawed President by historical standards, and he is already doing very unpopular things.

Don't fool yourself: a military coup would be nasty. Think of Pinochet overthrowing Allende in Chile. That nasty. 

I meant Pence convincing half of Cabinet to declare Trump unfit. I doubt (and hope) the Joint Chiefs don't take action. I can't imagine Mattis or Kelly would like kindly on any Trump craziness (and apparently they are very tight wth Dunford) so they may go along with Pence in such a case

[The_Doctor]

Mike Pence? At some point (erratic or criminal, as in "war crimes" behavior, or blatantly un-Constitutional), and we might see the Joint Chiefs of Staff take action for cause. If Mike Pence is complicit, then the process that takes our Donald Trump also takes out Mike Pence.

Only one of these states (Virginia) is a legitimate swing state. 39% favorability does not reliably translate into approval... but don't count on him getting anything much above 45%, which is just about what he got. This is a very flawed President by historical standards, and he is already doing very unpopular things.

Don't fool yourself: a military coup would be nasty. Think of Pinochet overthrowing Allende in Chile. That nasty. 

I meant Pence convincing half of Cabinet to declare Trump unfit. I doubt (and hope) the Joint Chiefs don't take action. I can't imagine Mattis or Kelly would like kindly on any Trump craziness (and apparently they are very tight wth Dunford) so they may go along with Pence in such a case

I hadn't considered the 25th Amendment as a scenario. Damn you, for not bringing up earlier. (For the timeline)

[pbrower2a]

Those aren't bad numbers for Trump. 45% of the country will always disapprove of any Republican, no matter what.

These are horrid numbers. Donald Trump will need to backtrack on some incendiary, insulting statements from the campaign. He has nearly half the public hating him instead of hoping for good results. But if he backtracks on those incendiary statements, will those to whom he apologizes accept it?

The rise and fall of Dubya in the polls indicates that people who expect the best out of a politician has nothing to do with partisanship. Donald Trump has fanatical support from about 40% of the electorate.

It's unlikely to get better. Fanatical support is unlikely to stay when people find that his idea of employment is to get people to work more hours for lower pay and under harsher management. Sure, it's possible to get the industrial jobs back -- but that will require a return to the sweatshops that went out of vogue in America but appear in countries in the early-industrial stage of development. Does anyone really want to work 60 hours a week to live in a fetid slum and have hunger as a companion?

People don't want work so much as they want pay.

...Donald Trump wants the sort of housing bubble financed with predatory lending  that Dubya sponsored. Because everyone now links the housing bubble with the predatory lending of the Double-Zero Decade to the worst economic meltdown since the Great Depression, such a bubble will never succeed to the take-off stage. That is a failure waiting to happen.     

[Bandit3 the Worker]

But if he backtracks on those incendiary statements, will those to whom he apologizes accept it?

I won't accept it. He's a predator.

[The_Doctor]

If the God Emperor is starting with these numbers I can't wait for the ending numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen:

51% favourable
47% unfavourable

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 22, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Dec. 24-27:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zp26cswnj7/econToplines.pdf

Biden 48/34% for +14%
Obama 53/42% for +11%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
The Democratic Party 40/47% for -7%
Trump 41/50% for -9%
The Republican Party 35/51% for -16%
H. Clinton 38/55% for -17%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).

[Beet]

Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Dec. 24-27:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zp26cswnj7/econToplines.pdf

Biden 48/34% for +14%
Obama 53/42% for +11%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
The Democratic Party 40/47% for -7%
Trump 41/50% for -9%
The Republican Party 35/51% for -16%
H. Clinton 38/55% for -17%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).

The Democratic party unfavorables include all those upset at the party for losing, whereas the Republican party can't even maintain positive favorables despite delivering victory at all levels.

21% say increase spending on nukes.

71% say it was a bad year or very bad year.

[PresidentSamTilden]

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).

"Local football fans blame team's QB for losing season"

Sidenote...The people who viewed this election as a choice between two good candidates crack me up. Some people just always see the bright side, I suppose.

[pbrower2a]

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).

"Local football fans blame team's QB for losing season"

Sidenote...The people who viewed this election as a choice between two good candidates crack me up. Some people just always see the bright side, I suppose.

The bright side: American youth are going to pay more attention to foreign languages, and that will cause them to become better speakers of English -- and likely less tolerant of a mangler of the English language like Donald Trump.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).

"Local football fans blame team's QB for losing season"

Sidenote...The people who viewed this election as a choice between two good candidates crack me up. Some people just always see the bright side, I suppose.

The bright side: American youth are going to pay more attention to foreign languages, and that will cause them to become better speakers of English -- and likely less tolerant of a mangler of the English language like Donald Trump.

Knowing Russian doesn't help with the English language all that much.

[pbrower2a]

A new Gallup poll has Americans highly skeptical of the ability of Donald Trump to achieve  some of the critical functions of the Presidency.

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Ouch!

I think that Trump gets an edge on the economy because such is what he promised  and was most careful in remaining secretive about. People may assume that because he is a tycoon he will get economic improvement by using his business acumen to promote economic growth. Because he has a sure majority in both Houses of Congress on everything he can be expected to do fairly well -- but even with such majorities he is seen less likely to succeed with Congress as with Obama or Dubya. 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201158/skeptical-trump-handle-presidential-duties.aspx

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If we had a recall process for Presidents (which we don't), do you think he'd be recalled?

[KingSweden]

If we had a recall process for Presidents (which we don't), do you think he'd be recalled?

Depends on what for. Recalls have a way of backfiring (see: 2012 in Wisconsin)

[pbrower2a]

PPP will be polling north Carolina this weekend.

[pbrower2a]

So far we have approval/disapproval in only three states. All three voted against Donald Trump, and voters in all three states don't think well of him. We have no approval polls (he has yet to be inaugurated!)... and PPP will show us results for its favorite state to poll, North Carolina, which barely went for Donald Trump. There was no statewide polling over the Christmas and New Years' weekends... I expect that to change.

We will probably also see polls from Quinnipiac. The map is ready for copious polls, as there will be some hot Governors' races in 2018  in Florida, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  Because governors have some control over whether voter suppression happens or does not happen, those five races may be more important for 2020 than whether the Republicans make gains in the Senate (which I expect because the Democrats have more potential seats to lose).

By winning the critical governors' races in 2018, Republicans can seal doom for the Democratic Party and liberalism in America.


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[KingSweden]

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That's a short honeymoon...