The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

fascinating gap between approval and popularity polls.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No way does Trump have 55% approval, that's garbage. The Gallup one seems correct.

[The Other Castro]

Past openings for Presidents:

Obama - 67%
Bush - 57%
Clinton - 58%
Bush - 51%
Reagan - 51%

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Sorry misread the disapproval

[pbrower2a]

Favorability is general optimism. Approval is whether one likes the results. That is why I have two maps for now. Approval is more germane to the likelihood of re-election because politicians run on their records with the chance of winning or run from their records and lose.

I will keep the favorability polls up for a couple of months -- until I have approval ratings for ten so states, or perhaps seven relevant states. I have yet to decide what 'relevant' is. If I see Donald Trump with approval of 40% in Georgia or 52% in Michigan, then that might be enough.

Polls should be coming in soon in several states -- most likely swing states of 2016. I already have a favorability poll in North Carolina, but the Massachusetts estimate and polls of New York, New Jersey, and Maryland are of non-swing states. I think that Virginia has swung hard against Donald Trump.  

[/]

So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Someone on the last page said 45-55, I think.

[Person Man]

Past openings for Presidents:

Obama - 67%
Bush - 57%
Clinton - 58%
Bush - 51%
Reagan - 51%

Through who? Maybe Trump can turn it around but Reagan got elected during a problem while Trump has the wind to his back. There is always another war or a short recession that improves in time that can save him.

[Klartext89]

No way does Trump have 55% approval, that's garbage. The Gallup one seems correct.

People like you are gift to every forum. Totall partisan hecks without objectivity. Disgusting.

55% job approval makes totally sense, also 45% favorability does.

[Klartext89]

So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Someone on the last page said 45-55, I think.

Harry Enten (538, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/823591805564370945)

Nate Cohn (NY Times, Siena College, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/823591838036721664)

I assume they have premium accounts...

[publicunofficial]

So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Someone on the last page said 45-55, I think.

Harry Enten (538, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/823591805564370945)

Nate Cohn (NY Times, Siena College, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/823591838036721664)

I assume they have premium accounts...

They must be total partisan hacks to assume it's not 55%

[pikachu]

So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Someone on the last page said 45-55, I think.

Harry Enten (538, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/823591805564370945)

Nate Cohn (NY Times, Siena College, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/823591838036721664)

I assume they have premium accounts...

45-45 is still pretty trash less than a week.

[Gass3268]

[Bandit3 the Worker]

George H.W. Bush only had a 6% disapprove? I never did approve, and I actually have close family members who felt the same way.

[Badger]

Says it all really.

Even if you support him, can we all simply acknowledge that Trump is unpopular and it's not surprising?

He became president despite losing the popular vote by a greater amount than anyone whose managed entering the Oval Office. He ran a campaign that was proudly divisive against "anyone who isn't us". He was chronically vulgar, insulting, and obnoxious in a manner greater than literally every other major party candidate in history combined--supporters considered it "telling it like it is". Whatsmore, we can all agree that his REPEATED statements about pussygrabbing, women "being dangerous by working out of the home", liking to intrude on beauty show dressing rooms, etc.  etc. etc., proved even to his supporters that, although they preferred him to Clinton, he's still fundamentally a scumbag personally.

Most importantly, he has not said one thing or taken a single action since being elected to change that course and actually unify the country. His supporters saying that candidate Trump would develop gravitas and his non-ideological nature to build bridges have bupkis to show for that theory, and it ain't about to happen.

The only people trying to claim he's not unpopular are those that always supported him.

[pbrower2a]

Says it all really.

Even if you support him, can we all simply acknowledge that Trump is unpopular and it's not surprising?

He became president despite losing the popular vote by a greater amount than anyone whose managed entering the Oval Office. He ran a campaign that was proudly divisive against "anyone who isn't us". He was chronically vulgar, insulting, and obnoxious in a manner greater than literally every other major party candidate in history combined--supporters considered it "telling it like it is". Whats more, we can all agree that his REPEATED statements about pussy grabbing, women "being dangerous by working out of the home", liking to intrude on beauty show dressing rooms, etc.  etc. etc., proved even to his supporters that, although they preferred him to Clinton, he's still fundamentally a scumbag personally.

Most importantly, he has not said one thing or taken a single action since being elected to change that course and actually unify the country. His supporters saying that candidate Trump would develop gravitas and his non-ideological nature to build bridges have bupkis to show for that theory, and it ain't about to happen.

The only people trying to claim he's not unpopular are those that always supported him.

Yes. He has basically told people that if they dislike him or his policies that it is the fault of those who 'failed' to support him and not of him or his policies. People who found him appalling on November 8 still find him appalling. The threat "change your political views or be miserable" is about what one expects in a dictatorship that does not go so far as to admonish people "comply or die".

He is going to demand sacrifices of people who did not vote for him with promises of miracles, but have no responsibility for the failure of the miracles to arrive. Of course some of us will continue to have memories of the vulgar, insulting manner of his campaign.

I predict that he will have a chaotic Presidency... and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again or some international crisis or natural disaster emerges that he cannot meet competently, then he will be the sort of leader who gets overthrown in a military coup in many countries other than America.

We are also seeing his managerial style, and persuasion is not part of it. His style is pure command> I could never get away with that as a substitute school teacher.

   

[Klartext89]

"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^

[pbrower2a]

"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^

Midterm elections usually break badly for the Party with the President in the White House. This time I acknowledge that the Republicans will likely make gains in the Senate. They will lose some gubernatorial seats... of course I will need to see some polls for Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  The Governors elected in 2018 may decide whether the Republican ticket gets necessary aid through voter suppression. The gubernatorial elections are the key elections.

[Phony Moderate]

Says it all really.

Even if you support him, can we all simply acknowledge that Trump is unpopular and it's not surprising?

He became president despite losing the popular vote by a greater amount than anyone whose managed entering the Oval Office. He ran a campaign that was proudly divisive against "anyone who isn't us". He was chronically vulgar, insulting, and obnoxious in a manner greater than literally every other major party candidate in history combined--supporters considered it "telling it like it is". Whatsmore, we can all agree that his REPEATED statements about pussygrabbing, women "being dangerous by working out of the home", liking to intrude on beauty show dressing rooms, etc.  etc. etc., proved even to his supporters that, although they preferred him to Clinton, he's still fundamentally a scumbag personally.

Most importantly, he has not said one thing or taken a single action since being elected to change that course and actually unify the country. His supporters saying that candidate Trump would develop gravitas and his non-ideological nature to build bridges have bupkis to show for that theory, and it ain't about to happen.

The only people trying to claim he's not unpopular are those that always supported him.

Yes, although the general breakdown in trust in politicians plays a role too - notice how three of the bottom four happen to be the three of the most recent presidents. Someone as unpleasant as Nixon only had 5% disapproving of him on taking office for example.

[Tender Branson]

Rassy today:

57-43 approve

[Badger]

Says it all really.

Even if you support him, can we all simply acknowledge that Trump is unpopular and it's not surprising?

He became president despite losing the popular vote by a greater amount than anyone whose managed entering the Oval Office. He ran a campaign that was proudly divisive against "anyone who isn't us". He was chronically vulgar, insulting, and obnoxious in a manner greater than literally every other major party candidate in history combined--supporters considered it "telling it like it is". Whatsmore, we can all agree that his REPEATED statements about pussygrabbing, women "being dangerous by working out of the home", liking to intrude on beauty show dressing rooms, etc.  etc. etc., proved even to his supporters that, although they preferred him to Clinton, he's still fundamentally a scumbag personally.

Most importantly, he has not said one thing or taken a single action since being elected to change that course and actually unify the country. His supporters saying that candidate Trump would develop gravitas and his non-ideological nature to build bridges have bupkis to show for that theory, and it ain't about to happen.

The only people trying to claim he's not unpopular are those that always supported him.

Yes, although the general breakdown in trust in politicians plays a role too - notice how three of the bottom four happen to be the three of the most recent presidents. Someone as unpleasant as Nixon only had 5% disapproving of him on taking office for example.

Even compared only to the most recent 3, Trump stands head and shoulders above (or rather below) the others.

[Klartext89]

"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^

Midterm elections usually break badly for the Party with the President in the White House. This time I acknowledge that the Republicans will likely make gains in the Senate. They will lose some gubernatorial seats... of course I will need to see some polls for Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  The Governors elected in 2018 may decide whether the Republican ticket gets necessary aid through voter suppression. The gubernatorial elections are the key elections.

Let's hope the Dems won't get help through voter fraud. But I doubt that Scott Foval and Bob Creamer are out of business. And I doubt that you have a problem with them ;-)

Your "voter supression" is nothing more than installing rules to make voter fraud harder - rules which are common in every European country.

[Virginiá]

Let's hope the Dems won't get help through voter fraud. But I doubt that Scott Foval and Bob Creamer are out of business. And I doubt that you have a problem with them ;-)

Your "voter supression" is nothing more than installing rules to make voter fraud harder - rules which are common in every European country.

Ending same-day registration and cutting early voting does nothing to prevent fraud. SDR already requires IDs and something like a utility bill to prove your residency, and afaik a number of states verify the address with a mailer right away and throw out the vote if they don't get a response. There is no decent argument to not have SDR, or to cut an existing program. We're not in the fking 1950s anymore. Technology allows safe implementation of this.

Early voting is no more a cause of fraud than election day voting, unless you believe that more voting = more fraud and thus is bad, in which case I'd recommend you reevaluate your entire idea of democracy and elections, because forcing in-person voting to a single workday, often during inconvenient hours for working class people, is absurd.

Voter id - look, I'm not going to argue this one. If Republicans made strong efforts to get everyone an ID, I'd have less of a problem. However, there is no proof voter ID is even needed. At least no proof that more fraud is occurring than citizens being disenfranchised.

And that's the gist of most of these laws making voting harder. Republicans say its to prevent "rampant fraud," yet they can't show us that any mass fraud is happening. A few (literally few) cases here and there doesn't justify shrinking the electorate by sometimes 1% - 6% or more.

Finally - why don't you think of voting restrictions as business regulations. You can't just keep piling on all these regulations, or else you make conducting proper business (voting) harder, thus reducing the volume of business (voting). By constantly piling on unnecessary regulations, you are picking winners and losers based on who is more likely to still vote despite increased regulations, which just happens to often be older, white, more wealthy conservatives. Even a Republican should be able to understand this - OH wait, they do. That's why we have these laws!

[Devout Centrist]

Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.

[pbrower2a]

"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^

Midterm elections usually break badly for the Party with the President in the White House. This time I acknowledge that the Republicans will likely make gains in the Senate. They will lose some gubernatorial seats... of course I will need to see some polls for Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  The Governors elected in 2018 may decide whether the Republican ticket gets necessary aid through voter suppression. The gubernatorial elections are the key elections.

Let's hope the Dems won't get help through voter fraud. But I doubt that Scott Foval and Bob Creamer are out of business. And I doubt that you have a problem with them ;-)

Your "voter supression" is nothing more than installing rules to make voter fraud harder - rules which are common in every European country.

Voter fraud is a rarity. The reward for fraudulent voting is so small in contrast to the possible consequences that such a deed as shoplifting is a more attractive offense. The people who would commit voter fraud are not so politically involved as the average.

Voter suppression is far easier to implement because it involves people who really know what they are doing -- people with access to demographic information that people must take considerable effort to get and use. These people know well enough to ensure that certain electoral precincts get plenty of voting devices and others get inadequate numbers of machine, or that voting be rushed through in some precincts and slowed in others. I may easily find out how some ethnic and occupational groups vote because of some limited research. Knowing one precinct from another is for people intimately involved in elections. 

[Young Conservative]

Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.

It was better than expected. Four days into trump and it's already amazing. Unexpected for me. If this continues I'm all on board for 2020