The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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  The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #425 on: February 03, 2017, 10:38:33 AM »

Clear mode effect. Trump does much worse with live interview polls.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #426 on: February 03, 2017, 10:41:01 AM »

Clear mode effect. Trump does much worse with live interview polls.

Rassy is also doing likely voters, which is absurd this far out from anything
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #427 on: February 03, 2017, 10:45:45 AM »

Clear mode effect. Trump does much worse with live interview polls.

Rassy is also doing likely voters, which is absurd this far out from anything

True, but PPP/YouGov/SurveyMonkey are all showing approvals with net's of around 0. CBS, Q-poll, and Gallup all -8ish.
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Person Man
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« Reply #428 on: February 03, 2017, 12:04:52 PM »

So the travel ban isn't this popular EO its been touted as?
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #429 on: February 03, 2017, 12:06:46 PM »

So the travel ban isn't this popular EO its been touted as?

No it isn't. People like it in theory but the devil is in the details. The fact that the rollout was so botched likely made it less popular too.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #430 on: February 03, 2017, 01:35:42 PM »

Interestingly, Trump's approval rating on the economy is running about 13 points ahead of his overall approval rating.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #431 on: February 03, 2017, 01:46:05 PM »

Interestingly, Trump's approval rating on the economy is running about 13 points ahead of his overall approval rating.

The economy is good, he hasn't made any major changes, and he's touted every little deal as his baby. I get it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #432 on: February 03, 2017, 03:37:21 PM »

Interestingly, Trump's approval rating on the economy is running about 13 points ahead of his overall approval rating.

It's still the Obama economy, one in which his stewardship still pays off in good results. President Trump has yet to call Americans to make great sacrifices on behalf of special interests as those special interests want.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #433 on: February 03, 2017, 04:10:56 PM »

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #434 on: February 03, 2017, 04:21:34 PM »

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove


“As you may know, Donald Trump signed an executive order which prohibits travel to the U.S. for the next three months by citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries, and suspends the U.S. refugee program for four months while reducing the total number of refugees the U.S. will accept this year. Overall, do you favor or oppose this executive order?”

favor 47%
oppose 53%

Also, 29% not only favor the order, but say they would like to see it expanded.

“Do you think the executive order…?”
makes the US safer from terrorism 41%
makes the US less safe from terrorism 46%

“Do you think the executive order does more to…?”
protect American values by keeping out people who don’t support them 43%
harm American values by preventing those seeking asylum from entering the US 49%

“Do you favor or oppose allowing refugees from Syria to seek asylum in the United States?”
favor 54%
oppose 45%

Should the US build a wall along the entire Mexican border?
yes 38%
no 60%

Trump job approval by region…
Midwest: -8
Northeast: -25
South: +8
West: -20

Support for travel ban by region…
Midwest: -6
Northeast: -19
South: +6
West: -14

Support for the travel ban by education level…
college grad: -24
non-college grad: +/-0
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #435 on: February 03, 2017, 04:22:44 PM »

Support for building a wall on the Mexican border now at the lowest level it's been since CNN first polled it in 2015.  Back then it was at 52%, and now at 38%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #436 on: February 03, 2017, 04:43:20 PM »

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #437 on: February 03, 2017, 04:48:08 PM »

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger. The midwest is gerrymandered pretty effectively to help the GOP. But, and this is a big but, that also gives the Dems a major opening in a wave. Lots of seats in play, even with a slight GOP lean.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #438 on: February 03, 2017, 04:51:29 PM »

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger. The midwest is gerrymandered pretty effectively to help the GOP. But, and this is a big but, that also gives the Dems a major opening in a wave. Lots of seats in play, even with a slight GOP lean.

It also would protects the danger seats in MN, PA, OH, and WI.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #439 on: February 03, 2017, 04:53:54 PM »

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove


Harry Enten pointed out that when a president has a less than 50% approval rating, his party will on average lose 36 house seats in the midterm. This only applies to his rating at the time of the midterm of course.

36 is enough to flip, of course, which would bring welcomed relief.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #440 on: February 03, 2017, 05:01:21 PM »

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #441 on: February 03, 2017, 05:10:48 PM »

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.


That's an interesting point. His job approval has, thus far, usually exceeded his favorability numbers. However, that could just be reg GOP voters saying "we like you doing X, but you're still an ass." Weird times.

On a related note, one theory I heard is that, because a good number of people assumed Hillary would win (2-3% of voters), they went with their GOP rep/senator to provide a check on her. Now, with Trump in there, I could see something similar happening in reverse, with people voting Dem just to keep him in check, not because they like the Dems... add that to the agitated Dem base... I can see a lot of seats moving in weird directions much faster than anticipated or in line with priors.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #442 on: February 03, 2017, 05:45:53 PM »

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove


Among the 53% who disapprove of Trump in the CNN/ORC poll, 43% have a "strong" disapproval of him.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/donald-trump-approval-rating/index.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #443 on: February 03, 2017, 08:12:31 PM »

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.


That's an interesting point. His job approval has, thus far, usually exceeded his favorability numbers. However, that could just be reg GOP voters saying "we like you doing X, but you're still an ass." Weird times.

On a related note, one theory I heard is that, because a good number of people assumed Hillary would win (2-3% of voters), they went with their GOP rep/senator to provide a check on her. Now, with Trump in there, I could see something similar happening in reverse, with people voting Dem just to keep him in check, not because they like the Dems... add that to the agitated Dem base... I can see a lot of seats moving in weird directions much faster than anticipated or in line with priors.


A poll of the Midwest soon after the election showed him with an overall edge in favorability in the Midwest.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #444 on: February 03, 2017, 11:10:23 PM »

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.


I'd like to know the source of this favorability rating. I would love to put it on the map because the state is Ohio, usually a slightly-R swing state. 

Ohioans must have found themselves getting something very different from what Donald Trump offered. 

Ohio votes heavily on bread-and-butter issues. Donald Trump has first addressed entry to the US by Muslims (a non-issue) and his proposed Border Wall (and few states are farther from the Mexican border than Ohio). The Border Wall will not create jobs in Ohio.

Add to this, Ohio is traditionally a Clean Government state. The Buckeye State shows little tolerance for corruption and scandal. Or is it a dictatorial President with a reactionary agenda?

   
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #445 on: February 03, 2017, 11:23:26 PM »

The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.


I'd like to know the source of this favorability rating. I would love to put it on the map because the state is Ohio, usually a slightly-R swing state. 
   

The source of that favorability rating is the election day exit poll for Ohio:

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/ohio/president
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #446 on: February 03, 2017, 11:39:43 PM »

The poll was an electoral exit poll.

I'm guessing that Ohioans voted for Donald Trump despite low expectations.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #447 on: February 03, 2017, 11:44:54 PM »

The poll was an electoral exit poll.

I'm guessing that Ohioans voted for Donald Trump despite low expectations.

There were many states where Trump was underwater in favorability according to the exit poll, but still defeated Clinton in the voting.  Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina...he won all of them handily, yet the exit poll gave him net negative favorability in each.  Heck, in Utah he was at 34% favorable, 63% unfavorable.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #448 on: February 04, 2017, 01:43:51 AM »

Under-performance of low expectations.

Three things to say about a parliamentary system:

1. Only persons who have political experience would go to the highest offices. Thus no Donald Trump. Before you say "What about Dwight Eisenhower?" -- he would be an obvious Member of Parliament.

2. Someone so awful as Donald Trump would be deposed in a vote of no confidence.

3. The potential for pointless rule by decree -- and nobody who has used the Executive Order so frequently, pointlessly, and ineptly as Donald Trump -- would be very low.

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #449 on: February 04, 2017, 10:12:05 AM »

The Buckeye State shows little tolerance for corruption and scandal.

Mostly, but the Cincinnati suburbs seem to put up with it quite a bit.
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