The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Devout Centrist]

Why are we still using RV's right now?

Isn't that how it always goes? LV screens need to be used before an election, which isn't for a long time, so the best way to go right now is registered voters. Or, I'd think anyway.

Usually it's adults, at least this far out and on something as trivial as approval

I thought only head to head races got polled in RV this far out.

[Mr. Morden]

Why are we still using RV's right now?

Isn't that how it always goes? LV screens need to be used before an election, which isn't for a long time, so the best way to go right now is registered voters. Or, I'd think anyway.

Usually it's adults, at least this far out and on something as trivial as approval

I thought only head to head races got polled in RV this far out.

Different pollsters do different things.  Morning Consult, PPP, and Quinnipiac all do RVs, for example.  Some others, like Gallup and YouGov, do adults.

[JoshPA]

they are oversampling democrats. Like they did the polls.

[Gass3268]

they are oversampling democrats. Like they did the polls.

Fake News!

[/]

they are oversampling democrats. Like they did the polls.

The national polls were actually only about three points off in the end, on average.

This is bad news for Trump even if his approvals are three points better than the polls say.

[The_Doctor]

The approvals are basically the conned staying with the con artist until something jars them. I doubt people who voted for him want to own up just yet. It'll take more than a few tweets and it will take some stupid unnecessary economic issues for people to grasp Trump was a bad idea.  So in context these polls make sense. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Have we ever had a President that had mostly disapproval ratings this early in his Presidency?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Have we ever had a President that had mostly disapproval ratings this early in his Presidency?

No, never, nobody else comes even close. I think George Bush Jr. had roughly 25% disapproval on inauguration day and that's the next closest. And nobody since Gallup started polling with Truman started with their approval under 50%. George Bush Sr. started at 51% but didn't go under 50% until his last year, and Bill Clinton went under 50% job approval a little over 100 days in. No president has begun their term in office with approval under 50% and disapproval above 45% (or even above 25%) before Trump.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Have we ever had a President that had mostly disapproval ratings this early in his Presidency?

These are unsual and unprecendented circumstances though. Normally, when you manage to win a presidential election it's a foregone conclusion that you have to be a popular guy. At least in the beginning.

But this time, a generally disliked candidate defeated an equally disliked candidate in the electoral vote, while losing the popular vote. Trump never had the support of a plurality - let alone a majority - of voters. The same applied to George W. Bush of course. But then again, the voters didn't think that Bush was an narcissistic asshole.

[Virginiá]

No, never, nobody else comes even close. I think George Bush Jr. had roughly 25% disapproval on inauguration day and that's the next closest. And nobody since Gallup started polling with Truman started with their approval under 50%. George Bush Sr. started at 51% but didn't go under 50% until his last year, and Bill Clinton went under 50% job approval a little over 100 days in. No president has begun their term in office with approval under 50% and disapproval above 45% (or even above 25%) before Trump.

Plus, as I recall, his actual disapproval rating was in the single digits. He had a lot of room to grow. Trump has started with over half the country not liking him / not approving of him, and in some polls something like 40%+ strongly disapproving.

The funny thing is, Trump hasn't even gotten to the part of his presidency where things start going wrong and supporters start becoming disillusioned. Eventually the economy is going to have some hiccups, or there will be some new high-profile foreign policy blunder, or he'll push/sign unpopular policies into law (of which we know the GOP has plenty), or he'll get embroiled in a scandal - something he especially seems prone to, or any number of things, and like many presidents before him, he'll find even he has new lows.

I think his best bet is to wish every night for a 90s-level economic boom (somehow) with high wage growth, because otherwise it's hard for me personally to see how he gets above water for any prolonged period of time.

[pbrower2a]

The approvals are basically the conned staying with the con artist until something jars them. I doubt people who voted for him want to own up just yet. It'll take more than a few tweets and it will take some stupid unnecessary economic issues for people to grasp Trump was a bad idea.  So in context these polls make sense. 

Having been at a Democratic meeting clearly open to the general public tonight... this community may be much more pro-Trump  than the national average, being heavily rural and blue-collar... it is safe to say that there is something to offend practically everyone about Donald Trump as President. Sport hunters who might have fallen for the most resolute expression of opposition to 'taking away your guns' may have a problem with someone who endorses the ravaging of the environment. What good is a deer rifle if there are no deer to hunt because the deer get sick and die if they drink from a polluted stream or if the venison from the deer is contaminated with chromium-6, dioxin, or other bad chemicals? Midwestern grain farmers really need winter blizzards to keep moisture in place for crops germinating in the spring and replenish the ground water so that they can have good (and profitable) crop yields.

We still have the Obama economy and Obama military/foreign policy working. That can insulate him for a while, but he has blown it badly on refugees and undocumented aliens. A family of seven might have two illegal-alien parents, two kids also illegal aliens because their parents slipped them illegally over the border as very young children, and three US-born US citizens. Refugees from hot zones of genocide and brutal repression? Better here in America than being murdered or being brainwashed with anti-American propaganda over there. In view of the contempt that President Trump has for his above-average predecessor, I can see most of the benefits of having Barack Obama as President coming to abrupt ends, and with hideous consequences to America, Americans, and as a result  the approval of Donald Trump. To be sure, it is possible to be very different from a predecessor who was good and still be a good President, as with Kennedy following Eisenhower.  But if there is any Eisenhower-to-Kennedy comparison to Obama-to-Trump it stops with similarities of temperament, character, and achievements between Eisenhower and Obama. Donald Trump is so far from being another JFK so far that the only similarity that he can have is a foreshortened term of office.

(Moderators, please go gentle on that. I did not say how his term might be foreshortened!)       

[Gass3268]

No change in the Gallup Poll today

[Mr. Morden]

Ipsos/Reuters on Trump’s job approval, conducted Feb. 3-7:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16399

approve 48%
disapprove 47%

[Ronnie]

Ipsos/Reuters on Trump’s job approval, conducted Feb. 3-7:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16399

approve 48%
disapprove 47%

13% of Democrats strongly approve of Trump?  Really?

[heatcharger]

PPP (2/7-2/8): 43/53

This is among RVs, I believe.

[Tender Branson]

SurveyUSA:

Is Donald Trump ...

33-50 Brilliant ?
64-27 A great businessman ?
52-35 An American success story ?
31-49 Honest ?
31-51 Honorable ?
56-32 Candid ?
43-37 A man of his word ?
76-15 Forceful ?
30-55 Thoughtful ?
18-67 Even-tempered ?
33-48 Evil ?
53-32 In over his head ?
47-38 Juvenile ?
52-32 Spiteful ?
56-31 A bully ?
43-37 Dishonest
42-40 Mad ?
43-40 Racist ?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8ad3d154-79be-44a5-a32d-e600113cae30

[Tender Branson]

WV - Orion Strategies (Feb. 2-4)

58% approve
37% disapprove

Gov. Jim Justice (D):

37% approve
22% disapprove

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/news/local-news/2017/02/survey-west-virginia-residents-see-positive-future

CA - PPIC (Jan. 22-31)

30-58 (all adults)
21-65 (non-registered adults)
33-56 (registered voters)
34-55 (likely voters)

Gov. Jerry Brown (D):

62-24 (all adults)
69-11 (non-registered adults)
60-30 (registered voters)
62-31 (likely voters)

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_AllAdults0117.pdf

[Middle-aged Europe]

LOL, West Virginia.

[Tender Branson]

LOL, West Virginia.

Not surprising.

Every country has their own Carinthia or Saxony ...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

LOL, West Virginia.

Not surprising.

Every country has their own Carinthia or Saxony ...

It's like that province in Moldova that won't abandon Soviet-style communism.

[pbrower2a]

WV - Orion Strategies (Feb. 2-4)

58% approve
37% disapprove

Gov. Jim Justice (D):

37% approve
22% disapprove

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/news/local-news/2017/02/survey-west-virginia-residents-see-positive-future

CA - PPIC (Jan. 22-31)

30-58 (all adults)
21-65 (non-registered adults)
33-56 (registered voters)
34-55 (likely voters)

Gov. Jerry Brown (D):

62-24 (all adults)
69-11 (non-registered adults)
60-30 (registered voters)
62-31 (likely voters)

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_AllAdults0117.pdf

So at looks as if the President finally has a state in which he is popular.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

When the Trump Administration goes down in flames in November 2020... we Americans will be partying like it is 1989 again... in Berlin.

[Wiz in Wis]

Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

[Reaganfan]

I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Because 'we, the people" are the boss, and we get to decide these things.