The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Virginiá]

Finally we continue to find that unhappiness with Trump- and with Congressional Republicans- could help Democrats to make big gains in 2018. Democrats lead 49/41 on the generic Congressional ballot. That's partially a product of Trump's unpopularity but also an outgrowth of Paul Ryan (35/47 approval), Mitch McConnell (23/52 approval), and Congress as a whole (16/68 approval) being unpopular in their own rights.

Now those are the numbers I want to see!

+8 lead on the generic congressional ballot is higher than all but 2 of the generic polls Democrats got in the 2016 race, with one of those 2 polls being +8 and the other +10.

Although as I recall one or two other generic polls posted in this thread over the past couple weeks showed somewhat lower numbers, so I won't give any of this much stock until I see months of consistent high single digit or double digit leads for Democrats in the generic poll. If that happens, I would definitely think a backlash is brewing.

[Gass3268]

Trump under 60% in WV is actually kinda surprising to me. Manchin could be safe if that number dips below 55%.

[The_Doctor]

I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Because despite your braggadocio, the Republican Party isn't always going to be top dog? And you'll probably run away when the times get bad for the GOP? But yeah, the GOP isn't always going to be on top.

[pbrower2a]

I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Everything looks  bad for Democrats now. 2018 ought to be a wave election for Republicans, with Republicans getting Constitutional majorities in both Houses of Congress, which which they can establish themselves as the permanent "leading force of politics" (language adopted from Article 6 of the Constitution of the Soviet Union) and establish a Christian and Corporate State in which non-Christian religions, contraception, abortions, and labor unions can be outlawed.  Maybe people can get the freedom to sign peonage contracts.

So much for the dream of the American Right. Reality is that Donald Trump is spectacularly unpopular spectacularly early. Democrats are doing well with fund-raising. Rallies contesting policies of President Trump  are commonplace. A recent poll projects an 8% edge in the Congressional ballot for 2018. 46% of Americans want the President impeached (which probably isn't going to happen).

So much about  the Trump Presidency is an early disaster. President Trump can double down in expectation of miracles... which is likely to fail. If he fails, then he can backtrack, which makes him look weak and ineffective. With a Senate majority out of the question, people can turn to the House of Representatives and state government in 2018 and can replace some Republican governors with Democrats.

What worked against a generally-competent President (Obama) will work far better against a President (Trump) who is seen as domineering and incompetent.   

[pbrower2a]

Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.

[Virginiá]

I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Those are weak, flimsy excuses. Not all the polls were off, and many national ones were very close or only marginally off the MoE near the end. In fact, during October, given the major events that were constantly breaking, it's probably fair to say that many of those polls were more or less correct but later developments shifted support back to Trump.

And if you think Trump's unpopularity doesn't matter just because he won the election, then I think you're ignoring a very crucial part of the election: his opponent was as disliked as he was, and trusted even less. Him winning doesn't mean his favorables/approvals mean nothing - it means that between 2 candidates with near-equally terrible favorables, the result is not always the candidate with the worst favorables.

But, whatever. If you want to use "but Trump won" as an excuse to ignore approval ratings/favorables and basically any negative polls for the next 2-4 years, then go ahead.

[Devout Centrist]

Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.

[Crumpets]

Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

Heck, I wouldn't even tell a poll I support impeaching Trump yet. Are 83% of Clinton backers more virulently anti-Trump than I am? Dang.

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup 2/10/17

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Seems like a pretty stable range here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup 2/10/17

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Seems like a pretty stable range here.

Stable but ugly

[Wiz in Wis]

Jesus...

[Dr. Arch]

lol, these are going to be a painful 4 years for our country.

#WeAreShinzo

[pbrower2a]

Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.

Thank you.

[KingSweden]

The impeachment #s re: Nixon may be inflated by modern polarization, FWIW

[Middle-aged Europe]

Jesus...

What's so shocking? Everybody knows he's a buffoon, a cheat, and a loser.

In fact, there's an editorial about the first weeks of the Trump presidency on German news site SPIEGEL ONLINE right now, titled ""BIG LOSER! SO SAD!" (in English). He's quickly becoming the world's laughing stock and comedy relief.

[afleitch]

When a country's leader is considered a literal joke, then it's probably impossible for America to ever recover it's prestige.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Finally we continue to find that unhappiness with Trump- and with Congressional Republicans- could help Democrats to make big gains in 2018. Democrats lead 49/41 on the generic Congressional ballot. That's partially a product of Trump's unpopularity but also an outgrowth of Paul Ryan (35/47 approval), Mitch McConnell (23/52 approval), and Congress as a whole (16/68 approval) being unpopular in their own rights.

Now those are the numbers I want to see!

+8 lead on the generic congressional ballot is higher than all but 2 of the generic polls Democrats got in the 2016 race, with one of those 2 polls being +8 and the other +10.

Although as I recall one or two other generic polls posted in this thread over the past couple weeks showed somewhat lower numbers, so I won't give any of this much stock until I see months of consistent high single digit or double digit leads for Democrats in the generic poll. If that happens, I would definitely think a backlash is brewing.

One of the most frustrating aspects this early on is that there's not a large enough data set yet to distinguish signal from noise. The numbers posted here certainly are promising though if true.

[pbrower2a]

When a country's leader is considered a literal joke, then it's probably impossible for America to ever recover it's prestige.

Just elect someone like JFK or Obama (who are extremely unlike, with Obama more like Eisenhower in contrast to JFK, which is about as different as two good Presidents can be)... and America can get respect again for having a much greater likelihood of doing the right thing.

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There's nothing like a bad President to tear down his Party in Congress. Republicans who can't see that possibility with Donald Trump have forgotten how they took down the Democratic majorities in both Houses of Congress and eventually the Presidency with someone really good as President. A bad President exposes whatever weaknesses members of Congress from his Party have. This is happening much faster with Donald Trump than with Barack Obama. Republicans figured out what to do with Obama in far less time than Democrats are figuring out what to do with Donald Trump.

He isn't fair... and he doesn't even understand the Bill of Rights and the tradition of indifference to religion in the heritage of America. I'm sure that many of us already have been adapting the famous Niemöller quote...

First they came for the Muslims... AND I SPOKE OUT!

I have no idea of how long it will take for President Trump to back down. If he does he will look like a fool. If he doesn't back down he will be an even bigger fool.

[Tender Branson]

NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

Plus, a new IA/Selzer poll will be out later today.

[Tender Branson]

Only -5 in NH of all places? And coming from the pollster that showed Clinton leading by 11 two days before the election? Not that it matters or tells us much, but this isn't bad for Trump.

That's a poll of adults. Among RV, it's probably -3 or something.

Anyway, like you said, the recent state polls are not bad for Trump and in line with a -5 national approval deficit.

If this trend holds, IA/Selzer should be about tied or slightly positive for Trump.

[pbrower2a]

NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

Plus, a new IA/Selzer poll will be out later today.

As in Michigan (which looks like a two different categories, but in which the positive assessment differs by 1%) approval and favorability are much the same. Partisan affiliation is very stable in New Hampshire, and it is usually closer than this if one sees positive and negative views predicting an election. Sure, it is 45 months away.

Because it is New Hampshire I would put it on the map now, but we will get a poll from Iowa, a state that went sharply for Donald Trump after being a reliable Obama state. Trump did exceedingly well in the Midwestern states in which farming is much big and ranching is rare.

New Hampshire has some similarities to Michigan, and Michigan has some similarities to Iowa.

[MT Treasurer]

I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Isn't that how it was almost everywhere?  Trump's fav/unfav in the national exit poll was 38%/60%.  He was underwater on favorability in places like IN, MO, and SC, yet still won those states handily.

That's why I don't get why people are acting as if Trump's popularity is now "crashing".  He was already unpopular on election day.

[Virginiá]

That's why I don't get why people are acting as if Trump's popularity is now "crashing".  He was already unpopular on election day.

If anything, he actually still remains more favorable today than he was prior to November 8th. I think when "crashing" is used, it is mainly referring to the fact that he had a very slight honeymoon (at least in a fair number of polls), then quite quickly came right back down.

Honestly, for right now, I believe his current range - anywhere from 40 - 44 / 48 - 54, is where he will probably remain for many months. I do not believe his core supporters will begin breaking ranks until Trump has trudged on for a while and continued to fail to make any progress on improving their lives, bringing jobs back or achieving most of the things he said he would. I do wholeheartedly believe a sizable number of people will become disillusioned at some point, though. It happens to most presidents.

In other words, to get him lower than what he has now might require a war of attrition.

[pbrower2a]

I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Isn't that how it was almost everywhere?  Trump's fav/unfav in the national exit poll was 38%/60%.  He was underwater on favorability in places like IN, MO, and SC, yet still won those states handily.

That's why I don't get why people are acting as if Trump's popularity is now "crashing".  He was already unpopular on election day.

His lack of popularity may contribute to ineffectiveness as President -- as if we can ignore extreme stands of partisanship that can polarize Americans more fully in opposition to him.

The map of favorability so far demonstrates that Donald Trump never got a solid mandate. When he does something unpopular, people who did not vote for him will find themselves in the position of saying "I didn't vote for him!" Sure, we saw this with Barack Obama, too, but far less of such at the outset  because he won clear majorities of the vote twice and because he was far less abrasive.

From now on the positions and behavior of the President are everything. He will have to change his ways, letting the normal processes of legislation work as we are accustomed to seeing them work, making sure that his executive orders violate neither the Constitution nor statutory law, and not tweeting whatever gets into his mind at the moment.

Americans do not like being ordered about on politics, and the President's dictatorial style that might fit other countries cannot work here.