The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[heatcharger]

Gallup (2/8-2/10):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup (2/8-2/10):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Damn son

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Gallup (2/8-2/10):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Cant wait to see this drop below 40%

[OneJ]

Gallup (2/8-2/10):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Cant wait to see this drop below 40%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His approvals will hover around 40%

[Badger]

Trump under 60% in WV is actually kinda surprising to me. Manchin could be safe if that number dips below 55%.

WV polls always have a ridiculous pro-D bias. And Manchin will be vulnerable anyway, especially when his opponent links him to Chuck Schumer.

Yeah, ask the average not-already-solid-GOP voter in WV what the most important issues to them are, and "opposing Check Schmer" is always in the top 3.

What's the matter with you, son?

[The Other Castro]

Iowa Selzer Poll:



http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/11/iowa-poll-majority-iowans-disagree-trumps-immigration-order/97764116/

[Tender Branson]

Trump's job approval in IA is probably similar to the ban numbers, because:

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[hopper]

SurveyUSA did a national favorable rating poll among 1.207 RV, Monday and Tuesday:

46-50 Donald Trump
47-44 Mike Pence
25-42 Steve Bannon
33-42 Kellyanne Conway
27-34 Jared Kushner

53-34 New York Times
52-34 Washington Post
54-38 CNN
54-42 FOX News
49-38 MSNBC
22-32 Matt Drudge
18-39 Breitbart
56-36 SNL

57-40 Barack Obama
43-52 Hillary Clinton

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baeb0e3c-2056-4057-b9ee-8f02adb98bfd

SUSA also released the following statement:

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http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Statement-from-SurveyUSA-CEO-Jay-H-Leve-020717.pdf

That's how polarizing this past Presidential Election was when both candidates favorability numbers were underwater during the election!

[hopper]

I am indifferent to Trump's policies currently but I don't have a favorable view of him.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire:

NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

(I was waiting for a poll of approval or favorability in Iowa from Selzer, and it is only on the travel ban, so I can't use it)

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[Virginiá]

Average percentage point change is -7.7 which would predict a midterm approval of 35.7%

img

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/830802165887295489

Presidential approval and midterm performance of incumbent parties, 1950-2014. Trump's numbers (#fakepolls) will matter for the GOP.

img

https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/829079666631835648

And of course that 1 point showing around -10 to -12 seats @ low-40s approvals will be used as proof that Trump and Republicans will have a tremendous midterm.

[heatcharger]

Gallup (2/9-2/11):

Approve 40% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

Bad!

[Dr. Arch]

Gallup (2/9-2/11):

Approve 40% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

Bad!

Those numbers are starting to get dangerously low.

[The Other Castro]

According to Gallup, Obama didn't hit 40% until mid August, 2011, and didn't hit 55% disapproval until late June, 2014. I was looking over the numbers, and I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

[Gass3268]

According to Gallup, Obama didn't hit 40% until mid August, 2011, and didn't hit 55% disapproval until late June, 2014. I was looking over the numbers, and I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

Obama never went below 40% in approval or above 55% in disapproval.

[MT Treasurer]

According to Gallup, Obama didn't hit 40% until mid August, 2011, and didn't hit 55% disapproval until late June, 2014. I was looking over the numbers, and I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

Obama never went below 40% in approval or above 55% in disapproval.

It's basically impossible for a Democrat to be above 55% in disapproval. The demographics just aren't there for it to happen. Republicans have a much lower floor and a much lower ceiling.

[Figueira]

According to Gallup, Obama didn't hit 40% until mid August, 2011, and didn't hit 55% disapproval until late June, 2014. I was looking over the numbers, and I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

Obama never went below 40% in approval or above 55% in disapproval.

It's basically impossible for a Democrat to be above 55% in disapproval. The demographics just aren't there for it to happen. Republicans have a much lower floor and a much lower ceiling.

I don't think so. I'm about as partisan hackish as it gets and there are plenty of Democrats I disapprove of. In fact, the only time I was polled, I said I disapproved of Obama.

[Sorenroy]

...I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

Obama had a net -15% or higher 33 times according to Gallup with his lowest at -18% which he got only once in a poll done between October 8th and October 10th 2014 (his highest was right at the begging where he polled at +56% for the first two polls).

Obama never went below 40% in approval or above 55% in disapproval.

That is somewhat false. Gallup polled Obama under 40% approval 39 times and above 55% disapproval six times in his two terms. The lowest approval he had was 38% (which he had eight times) and the highest disapproval he had was 57% (just once). You're not that far off, but the specific numbers you gave are wrong.

http://pollingreport.com/obama_job1a.htm (at the top of the page you can see a link to the rest of the polls)

That being said, Trump has been polling between 50 to 60 percent lower than Obama. If that holds up, Trump will fall lower than Obama ever was (to -19%) in his first 66 days or less.

[The Other Castro]

Ah I found the problem, I was looking at this historical ratings page:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

[pbrower2a]

It's risky to project a trend. The worst that I can project for President Trump based upon precedent is for him to be as unpopular in 2020 as Hoover was in 1932 or Carter was in 1980 and losing in a landslide.

There was no polling with Hoover, so we have only electoral results as a guide. But Hoover and Carter started with great popularity.

Donald Trump starts unusually low and does nothing to improve his standing among voters. He will not reduce economic inequality in America.

If Donald Trump were running for re-election at this time in 2020 with an approval rating of 40% in a binary election, then the average result that he would get as a vote share in the election would be about 46.5% with an average campaign against an average challenger.  (I am arguing based on Nate Silver's "Rule of 6%", which explains how incumbents with approval ratings of 44% or higher usually get re-elected, those with 43% are iffy, and those with approvals of 40% or less early in the campaign season get defeated if they run for re-election).

Paradoxically that is more than he got in 2016. In 2020 that just won't be enough.

We have no idea what sorts of ups and downs he will have. Maybe he will start a successful war for profits and get away with it.  Who knows?  

[Hindsight was 2020]

Let's make our predictions...how bad will the GOP get creamed in 2018?

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I still think he'll need to be in the low-30's for D's to not lose Senate seats (which given the rate Trump is going, looks likelier by the day).

Well by losing seats you mean in net gain of general cause I can completely see a 2-2 flip of NV/AZ going D while MO an IN go R today

[Tender Branson]

Canada:

15% approve
84% disapprove

Trudeau:

52% approve
44% disapprove

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/10-days-trump

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How low do you think it would be if The Media didn't cheer everything he does?

[Wiz in Wis]

I think people are seriously overestimating people's patience with incompetence. What did Bush in was not the ideological stuff, it was mismanagement. Iraq became a quagmire, Katrina a national embarrassment, lethargic response to the economy sliding into recession, infighting, scandals. These weaken base support as people become less inclined to defend their side. It's hard to defend your guy when your opponent can point to so many easy criticisms that have no reasonable response.

The only thing they have right now is "Oh, he's new, give him a chance" - That get's less useful every day and will die a sudden death after the first major challenge highlights this team's inability to run anything competently.