The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

I think people are seriously overestimating people's patience with incompetence. What did Bush in was not the ideological stuff, it was mismanagement. Iraq became a quagmire, Katrina a national embarrassment, lethargic response to the economy sliding into recession, infighting, scandals. These weaken base support as people become less inclined to defend their side. It's hard to defend your guy when your opponent can point to so many easy criticisms that have no reasonable response.

The only thing they have right now is "Oh, he's new, give him a chance" - That get's less useful every day and will die a sudden death after the first major challenge highlights this team's inability to run anything competently.

Two things are still going well for him -- the Obama economy and (to the extent that he hasn't made some faux pas in diplomacy with every country that he could possibly make one with) what remains of Obama foreign policy. Yes, the President can maintain policies of his predecessor if he finds them useful, as with Bill Clinton maintaining the Bush '41' foreign policy because it worked well. But Bill Clinton did not have the thorough contempt for his predecessor that Donald Trump has toward Barack Obama. President Trump wants to change everything that his predecessor has 'inflicted' upon America.

When President Trump's new ways go bad, then he might see approvals slip past 35% or so, and the Democrats will not only have the Obama coalition fully intact in 2018 and 2020 but will also regain the Carter-but-not-Obama vote of 1976.

  

[Doimper]

but will also regain the Carter-but-not-Obama vote of 1976.

There's a fine line between optimism and wishful thinking

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup (2/13):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

Or Fight!

[Mr. Morden]

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 6-12:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BztOs71zt1WpVE9uajdzMDRfckk/view

Trump job approval:
approve 46%
disapprove 53%
(Those numbers are the same for both adults and RVs.)

approval margin among…
men: +10
women: -22
white: +10
black: -55
Hispanic: -39
white / no college: +24
white / college degree: -16

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can we please remove the "1.0" from the title? The implications are sinister.

And I'll note that during Obama's first term there was no "1.0" in the title.

[Blackacre]

Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Can we please remove the "1.0" from the title? The implications are sinister.

And I'll note that during Obama's first term there was no "1.0" in the title.

If anything it might just be a 0.25.

[Mr. Morden]

Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.

Yeah, at the rate this thread is going, it'll probably get long enough to merit a "2.0" thread by the end of this year.  Presumably Trump will still be in office at the end of 2017.

[Blackacre]

Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.

Yeah, at the rate this thread is going, it'll probably get long enough to merit a "2.0" thread by the end of this year.  Presumably Trump will still be in office at the end of 2017.

You should make that thread "The Official Trump Approval Ratings Thread 2.0" instead of "The Official Trump 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.

Yeah, at the rate this thread is going, it'll probably get long enough to merit a "2.0" thread by the end of this year.  Presumably Trump will still be in office at the end of 2017.

Then that can be 1.1.

[Mr. Morden]

Ftr, even though I posted the OP in this thread, I didn't name it.  Ernest did.  I was just posting about a Gallup poll on Trump's favorability back in November, and Ernest merged it with another thread to make a Trump job approval megathread.

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup (2/14):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

no change

I was actually expecting this to narrow a bit, as a particularly bad Trump day looked primed to drop out of the rolling three day average... Would indicate that yesterday was at least as bad.

[OneJ]

Gallup (2/14):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

no change

I was actually expecting this to narrow a bit, as a particularly bad Trump day looked primed to drop out of the rolling three day average... Would indicate that yesterday was at least as bad.

I think it may dip under 40% as the Flynn scandal develops

This is what I think too. Hopefully he does go down.

[pbrower2a]

One thing to look for: really-big waves depend upon the entry of new generations into the political arena as older generations fade out. People born in the 1930s and 1940s are dying off rapidly, so politicians who might still be competent enough if they have a constituency of people who share the same political culture start retiring from public life or being defeated in elections.

New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier. Creditors are generally on the right, with small-scale creditors (who might have insurance policies or savings accounts) still concerned about having reliable income to protect their assets from having to be drained in economic downturns  but intent on preventing severe inflation. Big creditors want their pounds of flesh -- to make debt hurt the toiler who has had to borrow, perhaps even pawning himself to survive.

The Millennial generation is entering the stage of life when political careers begin to lead into high offices -- state legislatures, the House and the Senate, and even Governorships. The oldest among them will be in their middle-to-late 30s by 2020, and their pols will have an obvious constituency that the Silent (like Mitch McConnell), Boomers (like Trump and the Clintons) and even X (like Barack Obama) can't fully understand and relate. Obama and Trump have played ethnic demographics for their political successes, if in opposite ways, the former for inclusion and the latter for White Power (yes, that is an ugly slogan, but it fits).  

Millennial adults now fill most of the child-bearing years; even if there are adults in their fifties through seventies fathering children, it is the younger women who will be more important in establishing the culture of children.  Millennial adults are very hands-on parents, and they will not accept poverty in the name of some ideal fifty years from now that requires their children to live in poverty. If they have made great sacrifices on behalf of Corporate America, they do not want their children to get things far worse.

Can I at age 61 speak on behalf of Millennial adults? Hardly. But demographics are the ultimate reality in politics. Politicians who can relate to demographic change can be spectacularly successful. Those that cannot adapt lose.   

[Virginiá]

New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier.

I get what you are saying in the rest of the post, but this part - about "Debtors/lefties wanting inflation" - I don't get it. I don't think I've ever heard any Millennial liberal say they want inflation.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup (2/14):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

no change

I was actually expecting this to narrow a bit, as a particularly bad Trump day looked primed to drop out of the rolling three day average... Would indicate that yesterday was at least as bad.

I think it may dip under 40% as the Flynn scandal develops

This is what I think too. Hopefully he does go down.

I already see a Presidency in disarray, a 'gang who can't shoot straight' riding on fine horses (Obama foreign policy and economic stewardship) that they have not been watering and feeding adequately. Should the horses run away, the 'gang who can't shoot straight' are in deep trouble.

I do not predict day-to-day trends; I seek only to explain them. Extrapolation of trends is risky behavior in statistical analysis.

[pbrower2a]

New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier.

I get what you are saying in the rest of the post, but this part - about "Debtors/lefties wanting inflation" - I don't get it. I don't think I've ever heard any Millennial liberal say they want inflation.

No -- but they certainly do not want deflation that makes debts that they owe for such things as student loans and auto loans to become even more onerous. People with no stake in the economic order do not become conservatives.

Economic elites are most successful in oppressing others when those others are deeply in debt in comparison to their income. Just think of the relationship of landowners to sharecroppers.   

[Tender Branson]

McLaughlin and Associates:

47.6% approve
47.8% disapprove

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/02/13/secure-america-now-february-2017-poll-national-security-issues

(R) pollster for an (R) group.

[Devout Centrist]

McLaughlin and Associates:

47.6% approve
47.8% disapprove

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/02/13/secure-america-now-february-2017-poll-national-security-issues

(R) pollster for an (R) group.

Decimals are cancerous

[henster]

Ras has shown the same 52/48 split since last Friday, they have never shown him with a negative JA.

[Classic Conservative]

Fox Poll: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/02/14/fox-news-poll-february-14-2017/

Trump Approval Rating:

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 48%

[heatcharger]

Fox Poll: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/02/14/fox-news-poll-february-14-2017/

Trump Approval Rating:

Approve: 49 48%
Disapprove: 48 47%

[Mr. Morden]

Fox Poll: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/02/14/fox-news-poll-february-14-2017/

Trump Approval Rating:

Approve: 49 48%
Disapprove: 48 47%

Crosstabs:

men: +15
women: -12
non-white: -42
white college degree: -4
white no college degree: +37
under age 45: -16
over age 45: +12
under $50k: -5
over $50k: +1

7% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.  2% of Trump voters disapprove of his job performance.

Also from that poll:

“Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s executive order on how the United States government will handle immigration, which includes temporarily banning all refugees as well as banning citizens from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen from entering the United States?”

approve 46%
disapporve 52%

On the individual parts of the executive order, a narrow majority oppose the 120 ban on all refugees and the indefinite ban on refugees from Syria.  However, people were more receptive to this part:

“For 90 days, banning people from countries of Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen from entering the United States.”

goes to far 48%
about right 38%
doesn’t go far enough 12%
don’t know 2%

[Ronnie]

It's worth noting that 41% of voters *strongly* disapprove of Trump in that poll, versus 35% who strongly approve.  

[heatcharger]

Iowa - DMR/Selzer (2/6-2/9):

Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%

Not too good... I'm wondering what his ratings are in Wisconsin.