The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[GlobeSoc]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

[pbrower2a]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

Only 9 more points to go!

On a serious note, I think people are severely underestimating the likelihood of him hitting the 20's. If a recession hits, his one trump card is gone. I also think people are OVERestimating how much nonsense/incompetence the public can tolerate. Personally, I think these weekly crises will wear on the public quicker than most think

It is still the Obama economy. Foreign policy has yet to shift fully away from the Obama universe. President Trump and the GOP own any economic meltdown.

[Virginiá]

My point is that if the Democrats lose both MT and GA despite polls saying that 60% of the country disapproves of Trump, they're in trouble (or the polls are wrong). Of course the margin will also tell us a lot.

Eh, I mean we are talking about low turnout special elections here, very soon in the Trump presidency. Unpopular or not, it may not be long enough for him to drag down on the GOP brand. Not that I don't think an unpopular president wouldn't drag down their party - I absolutely do, but I'm not entirely sure it is possible to happen within a span of months after taking office (although you could add on the last 6 months of 2016 too, I suppose)

If Democrats don't win any of these, I'm not considering it much of anything. I'm waiting for a higher turnout general election where enough time will have passed for Trump to seriously exhaust the public's patience and/or for the GOP to pass numerous packages of unpopular policy. It will really take close to a year or more for that. This November's off-off year elections would still be a good test, assuming he is just as (or more) unpopular as today.

[Holmes]

I mean, Hochul and Critz won special elections in McCain districts in 2010, but so did Djou in Hawaii. So really special elections are more often than not their own special things and I wouldn't read much into them for guessing the national mood in 2018.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

Damn

Get used to it. First impressions stick.

[The_Doctor]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

Damn

Get used to it. First impressions stick.

I hope you're right. I am the eternal doubting Thomas here but hopefully.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

Damn

Get used to it. First impressions stick.

I hope you're right. I am the eternal doubting Thomas here but hopefully.

I would prefer that he change his ways and stop the damage so that we have a political system worth keeping intact. Maybe we will have a Constitutional Convention and adopt a near-translation of the German Constitution, a constitution with far more protections against dictatorship and despotism than ours. Or perhaps we could have a Westminster-style parliament.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?

[OneJ]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?

Canada, here we come!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Atlas overreaction again. The midterms aren't until next year and even if we are to assume his approvals hover ~40% he could very well keep the House thanks to the gerrymandered to all hell districts and the only Senate seats I could see realistically flipping from R to D would be Arizona and Nevada.

Ted Cruz losing to a Democratic opponent? Remember how Hillary was supposed to put Texas in play?

The only thing I see happening with this low approval rating would be in puts vulnerable Senate seats probably into the Likely D column for right now

[Ronnie]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?

Honestly, I don't think that's even possible.  If I learned anything from this past campaign, it's that Trump could do anything and still hold on to his hard core base of supporters, which is probably like 25% of the electorate.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?

Honestly, I don't think that's even possible.  If I learned anything from this past campaign, Trump can do anything , and still hold on to his hard core base of supporters, which is probably like 25% of the electorate.

I mean, what was the lowest % approval rating for Bush II? 22%?

[Tender Branson]

Austria (Marketagent/ServusTV)

"Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's job as POTUS so far ?"

16% approve
72% disapprove
12% undecided

"Do you support or oppose a Trump-style immigration stop from majority Muslim countries ?"

41% support
59% oppose

https://www.facebook.com/ServusTV/videos/vb.248450014269/10154669655514270/?type=3&theater

[Tender Branson]

Similar to pbrower's map of US states, here's my Trump approval map for countries:



So far:

* Germany (13% approval)
* Canada (15% approval)
* Austria (16% approval)

[windjammer]

Quite the opposite. If they win red territory it'd make waves, but if they lose those areas with the B-list candidates they have, who cares.

Didn't Trump only win that Georgia district by 1? That's hardly red territory. And neither is Montana, for that matter. The state has a Democratic Senator, a Democratic governor and elects Democrats to statewide offices on a regular basis. Now if there were an incumbent like Zinke running, it'd be very tough for them to win, but an open seat should be easily winnable for them - especially if Republicans are as unpopular as the polls say they are.

It's too early to have a massive backlash against republicans downballot tbh, the 2017 elections will be a bigger indicator than the current special elections.

[Crumpets]

Similar to pbrower's map of US states, here's my Trump approval map for countries:



So far:

* Germany (13% approval)
* Canada (15% approval)
* Austria (16% approval)

If I had to predict which countries view Trump favorably, I'd probably go with Russia, Belarus, the Philippines, Pakistan, and maybe Kazakhstan, plus all of the random countries that always seem to approve of US leadership like Kenya and maybe Georgia, although they'd probably be weary of how close Trump is to Russia.

[The Other Castro]

Gallup: 40/55

[Sorenroy]

Gallup: 40/55

Looks like it was just noise.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup: 40/55

Looks like it was just noise.

It's a daily tracking poll going up 2 points is naturally, also that's stikl freakin awful

[Classic Conservative]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/833060939578617857

[Fusionmunster]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/833060939578617857

45 is still bad, and probably going to get worse.

[The_Doctor]

When Trumpists refer to Silver's 45% as more authentic to disprove a 38% rating, in the words of their Glorious God Emperor: Sad!

[Mr. Morden]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/833060939578617857

This is heavily skewed by Rasmussen at 55, which is at least 8 points higher than the next best one for him.

HuffPo's trendline if you take out Rasmussen is:

approve 42%
disapprove 52%

link

Including Rasmussen brings it all the way up to 45%.

[Ronnie]

I'd be inclined to include Rasmussen in any average.  There were some instances during the campaign where outlier polls had at least a grain of truth to them.

[heatcharger]

I'd be inclined to include Rasmussen in any average.  There were some instances during the campaign where outlier polls had at least a grain of truth to them.

The problem is their methodology is skewed on purpose to give Trump a higher rating than the other pollsters. If they just released their RV numbers, I wouldn't object to including them in an aggregate either.