The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[JA]

http://www.wltx.com/mb/news/winthrop-poll-sc-residents-react-to-prestrump-economy/413300507
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

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• 58-34% of Whites approve of Trump; 7-79% of Blacks disapprove
• 51-39% of males approve of Trump; 54-37% of females disapprove

[Gass3268]

CBS Poll

39% Approve
51% Disapprove

[Dr. Arch]

Holy moly, he's tanking everywhere. Those numbers in SC are especially surprising.

[windjammer]

He seems to be around -10 right now

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, Franklin&Marshall.  Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor. 32% have President Trump at "excellent or good", 54% at poor, 13% fair.  Awful, really.

http://m.republicanherald.com/news/poll-disappointment-in-trump-casey-wolf-1.2158470

South Carolina, Winthrop University.

44% approve, 47% disapprove.

...and he gets only 77% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. 

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

CBS national poll. 39% approve, 51% disapprove.  I don;t show national polls on the map, but if anyone wants to guess that the President is faring better than this in Wisconsin or Ohio, go right ahead and believe it. .

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[OneJ]

http://www.wltx.com/mb/news/winthrop-poll-sc-residents-react-to-prestrump-economy/413300507
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

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• 58-34% of Whites approve of Trump; 7-79% of Blacks disapprove
• 51-39% of males approve of Trump; 54-37% of females disapprove

I wonder what Mississippi's numbers look like. Probably not necessarily where I want them to be, but SC is sorta similar to MS so this could be a good heads-up of what MS may feel.

[Holmes]

Interestingly, the poll from Maryland shows he has an approval rating among Republicans in that state of 71% and an approval rating among all voters of 29%. I'm now very curious what Trump's total approval rating is in Florida, where only 67% of Republicans support him.

Well Florida does have more Republicans but also Dixiecrats. I'd say I his approval is near the national average.

[pbrower2a]

Three years away from the start of the real campaigning of the 2020 Presidential election I can make the earliest possible prediction of its results.

Note that I make some assumptions.

First, that the 2020 election will be free and fair.  

Anything else (1) isn't interesting, (2) is a violation of over 200 years of precedent, or (3) indicates that the comparative few who own the assets and grab the income either have gained total power or have lost everything in a revolution or apocalyptic war.

Second, that American political culture does not change profoundly in the meantime.  

Ethnic divides and religious patterns remain much the same and have much the same general orientation. There is no trend toward fundamentalist religion or toward irreligion that would change voting patters. We haven't seen that since the late 1970s  and I don't expect to see that now.

Third, that the states change in their voting behavior only due to demographic change

The Hispanic and Asian populations are growing rapidly and making a bigger part of the electorate while black and white populations become lesser shares.

Fourth, approval-disapproval differentials remain much the same as they are now.

That assumes that President Trump does not endure even further losses of approval or make a miraculous recovery.  Could things go worse for him? Sure. Mass unrest. Economic meltdown. Military or diplomatic debacles. Scandals involving sex or financial turpitude.  I'm not saying that any one of those will happen, but I can't rule them out. If any of these happen, then Donald Trump might not even run for re-election, in which case all bets are off.  

Fifth, that President Trump will run for election.

He will not die, become incapacitated, resign, or be impeached whether by Congress or a military junta. Crazy as things are now I can't even rule out a military coup. To be sure, if he dislikes the Presidency he might choose not to run while expressing some noble cause for not seeking a second term, as did LBJ.

Sixth, that third parties will not greatly shape the election.

If the liberal side splits significantly, then President Trump wins. If some conservative-leaning nominee gets 10% or more of the vote, then Trump loses 'bigly'.

>>>>I have enough approval and favorability ratings of states to create a skeleton of a likely 2020 Presidential election. There are states (Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin) for which I have nothing so far, for which I would like some data.

So add 6% to the most recent number for approval or favorability (where I had both favorability and approval, they were basically the same -- I prefer approval) to get the likely share of the vote in any state in the upcoming election. Nate Silver has a model for elected (not appointed) Governors and Senators that suggests that they normally lose support once they start legislating or governing because they can't please everyone who voted for them, but that they typically gain about 6% of the vote from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season by campaigning. That's the 'average' Governor or Senator running against the 'average' challenger. It worked well with Obama, whose approval ratings were in the mid 40s early in 2016, and he barely got re-elected by the popular vote. If it applies to Senators and Governors, then why not to the President?

So here are the data. I normed some unflattering polls for Trump in Florida and North Carolina to the national average , but other than that I simply took the latest numbers. Here is the raw data:

 NY - 31 MA - 25  NJ - 36 AZ - 39 FL - 34 (raise to 40) NC- 36 (raise to 40) MI-40 WV - 58 CA -34 NH - 43 VA - 38 IA - 42 AR - 60 TX - 46 VA -32 TN - 51 MD -29 PA - 32 SC - 44

Add 6 to the approval rating, and you get the following map:

      

white -- 49-51% for Trump (a virtual tie)

Trump wins:

60% or more
55-59.9%
51.0-54.9%

Trump loses, getting :

40% or less
40-44.9%
45-48.9%

[pbrower2a]

We can do some fill-ins. It's obvious that President Trump will have no chance in Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, or Hawaii.  On the other side, I can expect Trump to be re-elected by big margins in states that Obama lost big twice (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Nebraska (except for NE-02), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Because much of the vote in Missouri is in the Ozarks and has much in common in culture with West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, I expect Trump to win Missouri. Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was something of a freak and likely unrepeatable.  Montana might vote for a Democrat for Governor or for a Senate seat, and was close for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't in 2012.

I expect Minnesota to be Minnesota, a fairly liberal state, and Wisconsin to move with Iowa back to the D column. Georgia was close in 2008 and 2016, so I'm not guessing there. South Carolina makes Georgia intriguing. Ohio? I'm saying nothing until I see a poll of Ohio. The sorts of people who swung Ohio from D to R in 2016 might behave much as such voters look likely to do in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  

[Ronnie]

Today's Gallup:

Approve: 43% (+1)
Disapprove: 52%

[The_Doctor]

We can do some fill-ins. It's obvious that President Trump will have no chance in Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, or Hawaii.  On the other side, I can expect Trump to be re-elected by big margins in states that Obama lost big twice (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska (except for NE-02), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Because much of the vote in Missouri is in the Ozarks and has much in common in culture with West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, I expect Trump to win Missouri. Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was something of a freak and likely unrepeatable.  Montana might vote for a Democrat for Governor or for a Senate seat, and was close for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't in 2012.

I expect Minnesota to be Minnesota, a fairly liberal state, and Wisconsin to move with Iowa back to the D column. Georgia was close in 2008 and 2016, so I'm not guessing there. South Carolina makes Georgia intriguing. Ohio? I'm saying nothing until I see a poll of Ohio. The sorts of people who swung Ohio from D to R in 2016 might behave much as such voters look likely to do in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.   

Perhaps a model that combines polling from several states to quantify where a state might stand? For example, Ohio + Minnesota might approximate where Wisconsin really stands.

[pbrower2a]

We can do some fill-ins. It's obvious that President Trump will have no chance in Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, or Hawaii.  On the other side, I can expect Trump to be re-elected by big margins in states that Obama lost big twice (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska (except for NE-02), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Because much of the vote in Missouri is in the Ozarks and has much in common in culture with West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, I expect Trump to win Missouri. Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was something of a freak and likely unrepeatable.  Montana might vote for a Democrat for Governor or for a Senate seat, and was close for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't in 2012.

I expect Minnesota to be Minnesota, a fairly liberal state, and Wisconsin to move with Iowa back to the D column. Georgia was close in 2008 and 2016, so I'm not guessing there. South Carolina makes Georgia intriguing. Ohio? I'm saying nothing until I see a poll of Ohio. The sorts of people who swung Ohio from D to R in 2016 might behave much as such voters look likely to do in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.   

Perhaps a model that combines polling from several states to quantify where a state might stand? For example, Ohio + Minnesota might approximate where Wisconsin really stands.

Another is to see the Presidential election of 2016 as an anomaly with Obama 2012  with such states as  Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee (maybe), and Texas drifting slightly D.

Watch gubernatorial elections in 2018.

[GlobeSoc]

I think that the deep south will have roughly even approvals, with MS or AL having the highest of that set of states and Georgia the lowest

[pbrower2a]

I think that the deep south will have roughly even approvals, with MS or AL having the highest of that set of states and Georgia the lowest

You are probably right. I show South Carolina as negative, and I would expect much the same in Georgia.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I wonder what Mississippi's numbers look like. Probably not necessarily where I want them to be, but SC is sorta similar to MS so this could be a good heads-up of what MS may feel.

Yes and no.  We have one senator who's been fairly regularly bashing Trump and a fair amount of our economy depends upon international trade, neither of which true for Mississippi.  On the other hand, the fact that a fair number of are Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump doesn't mean that they wouldn't vote for him over a Democrat in 2020.

[Wiz in Wis]

PPP (Feb 21/22)

Approve 45 (+2)
Dissaprove 48 (-5)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_22417.pdf

Other good stuff in there on the media, etc.

[Mr. Morden]

Ipsos/Reuters national poll, conducted Feb. 17-21:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16437

approve 45%
disapprove 50%

[Wiz in Wis]

Today's Gallup:

Approve: 43% (nc)
Disapprove: 52% (nc)

[pbrower2a]

At this point I would project a minimum of 321 electoral votes for the average Democratic nominee for President in the re-election bid of Donald Trump  based on giving anything in any shade of red, anything that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 except New Hampshire and ME-02, and Wisconsin, which I would expect to be close to Iowa. That's if I concede New Hampshire, ME-02, and Ohio, which is rather generous to President Trump with the data that I have.

That assumes that nothing really changes in three years and the usual dynamics of a Preisdential campaign apply from then.   

[Inmate Trump]

Granted, it's only been about a month....but say his approval is the same or worse throughout the 2020 election.

Has there ever been an incumbent president with similar approval ratings who won reelection?

[Gass3268]

NBC/Survey Monkey:

Net Approve: 43%
Strongly Approve - 25%
Somewhat Approve - 18%

Net Disapprove: 54%
Somewhat Disapprove - 11%
Strongly Disapprove - 43%

[Fusionmunster]

Granted, it's only been about a month....but say his approval is the same or worse throughout the 2020 election.

Has there ever been an incumbent president with similar approval ratings who won reelection?

Even Bush jr. was above water in October and November of 2004. Still, people vote Trump even though they disapprove so I dont know.

[pbrower2a]

Granted, it's only been about a month....but say his approval is the same or worse throughout the 2020 election.

Has there ever been an incumbent president with similar approval ratings who won reelection?

My assumption for this model is that his approval ratings stabilize around 40% and stay there. That is a cautious assumption, one that paradoxically might allow him to get a higher percentage of the total vote in 2020 and still lose.  Remember that he got about the same percentage of the total vote as Dukakis got in 1988 and that McCain got in 2008.

I can hardly expect him to do better than 40% or so over time. He has yet to fully enact an economic agenda that requires great reductions in living standards by most people on behalf of economic elites for benefits that won't appear for most people for at least twenty years... maybe, and if those benefits never appear, that's just too bad. He has yet to face an economic tailspin, and in view of the administrative chaos that we have all seen so far, I can't expect him to perform the sort of economic stewardship that either mitigates the harm or sets the economy on a new and better course. In view of the stormy relationship between him and both the intelligence services and the Armed Forces, I hardly expect any international crisis to go well while he is President -- and such crises are more likely to happen when the President shoots his mouth off about a major religion and about illegal immigrants who have been doing little harm.

So what will the electoral map look like if he has an approval rating around 30%? He could put together a scenario in which one gets the Obama states and the Carter states together... and then some.



He would not have to lose much to lose Texas. My model has Trump winning 52% of the popular vote in Texas  

[Mr. Morden]

NBC/Survey Monkey:

Net Approve: 43%
Strongly Approve - 25%
Somewhat Approve - 18%

Net Disapprove: 54%
Somewhat Disapprove - 11%
Strongly Disapprove - 43%

I posted that poll three days ago. 

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5537375#msg5537375

[Gass3268]

NBC/Survey Monkey:

Net Approve: 43%
Strongly Approve - 25%
Somewhat Approve - 18%

Net Disapprove: 54%
Somewhat Disapprove - 11%
Strongly Disapprove - 43%

I posted that poll three days ago. 

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5537375#msg5537375

The article was published yesterday, so I thought it was new.